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The official website says that the goals of ACE are "to dramatically enhance the accuracy, precision, and timeliness of intelligence forecasts for a broad range of event types, through the development of advanced techniques that elicit, weight, and combine the judgments of many intelligence
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mathematical aggregation of judgments by many individuals, based on factors that may include: past performance, expertise, cognitive style, metaknowledge, and other attributes predictive of accuracy
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The broad program announcement for ACE was published on June 30, 2010. ACE funded the
Aggregative Contingent Estimation System (ACES) website and interface on July 15, 2011. They funded
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et al. (winner of a 2013 ACE tournament) ACE also partnered with the ARA to create the
Aggregative Contingent Estimation System (ACES).
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Data from ACE is fed into another program, called
Forecasting Science and Technology (ForeST), which partners with
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The ACE has collaborated with partners who compete in its forecasting tournaments. Their most notable partner is
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efficient elicitation of probabilistic judgments, including conditional probabilities for contingent events
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analysts." The website claims that ACE seeks technical innovations in the following areas:
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66:. The program was concluded by late 2015. The program manager was future IARPA director
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effective representation of aggregated probabilistic forecasts and their distributions.
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308:"Good judgment in forecasting international affairs (and an invitation for season 3)"
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There is a fair amount of research funded by grants made by the IARPA ACE program.
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37:) was a program of the Office of Incisive Analysis (OIA) at the
256:"Intell site tests crowdsourcing's ability to predict future"
280:. The Good Judgment Project. July 27, 2011. Archived from
41:(IARPA). The program ran from June 2010 until June 2015.
421:"Google Scholar listing of research funded by IARPA ACE"
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Brain Gain: Technology and the Quest for
Digital Wisdom
336:"Can Algorithms Find the Best Intelligence Analysts?"
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some time around July 2011. ACE has been covered in
473:Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity
202:"IARPA's New Director Wants You to Surprise Him"
148:Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity
39:Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity
469:"Forecasting Science & Technology (ForeST)"
176:Office of the Director of National Intelligence
18:Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program
362:"IARPA's high-stakes intelligence experiment"
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444:. The Good Judgment Project. Archived from
278:"The idea behind the Good Judgment Project"
226:"Aggregative Contingent Estimation System"
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144:"Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE)"
408:The ACE program manager is Jason Matheny
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306:Horowitz, Michael (November 26, 2013).
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516:United States intelligence operations
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396:. St. Martin's Press. p. 260.
169:"Aggregative Contingent Estimation"
334:Drummond, Katie (April 22, 2010).
254:Hickey, Kathleen (July 15, 2011).
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31:Aggregative Contingent Estimation
27:U.S. government research program
142:Matheny, Jason; Rieber, Steve.
390:Marc Prensky (7 August 2012).
230:Federal Business Opportunities
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360:Corrin, Amber (2015-09-23).
200:Harbert, Tam (2015-10-19).
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103:The Good Judgment Project
51:The Good Judgment Project
521:Statistical forecasting
118:George Mason University
68:Jason Gaverick Matheny
366:C4ISR & Networks
313:The Washington Post
56:The Washington Post
403:978-1-137-09317-2
107:Philip E. Tetlock
74:Goals and methods
16:(Redirected from
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476:. Retrieved
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510:Categories
376:2016-03-31
211:2016-03-31
124:References
97:Partners
114:SciCast
45:History
478:May 6,
452:May 5,
426:May 6,
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319:May 5,
288:May 5,
262:May 6,
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258:. GCN
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Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. Additional terms may apply.