Social cycle theory - Knowledge (XXG)

1300:, and writes that governments devolve respectively in this order from aristocracy into tyranny. Plato's cycle of governments is linked with his anthropology of the rulers that come with each form of government. This philosophy is intertwined with the way the cycle of governments plays out. An aristocracy is ruled by aristocratic people whose rule is guided by their rationality. The decline of aristrocracy into timocracy happens when people who are less qualified to rule come to power. Their rule and decision-making is guided by honor. Timocracy devolves into oligarchy as soon as those rulers act in pursuit of wealth; oligarchy devolves into democracy when the rulers act on behalf of freedom; and lastly, democracy devolves into tyranny if rulers mainly seek power. Plato believes that having a 3724: 186: 277: 1603:, the protagonists fly over where they expected to see the United States, but see no sign of urban civilization. At first assuming they were in the pre-1750 past, they later find it was a future time. Humanity is doomed to go through repeated cycles of industrialization, overpopulation, collapse—followed by rebuilding, and then again industrialization, overpopulation and collapse and so on, over and over again. In the far future, a civilization which is aware of this history no longer wants progress. 1747:. They are part of the living processes of the global polity and social order. Wars are "systemic decisions" that "punctuate the movement of the system at regular intervals." Because "world politics is not a random process of hit or miss, win or lose, depending on the luck of the draw or the brute strength of the contestants", anarchy does not play a role; long cycles have provided, for the last five centuries, a means for the successive selection and operation of numerous world leaders. 1561:) which traces the history of Penguinia—a thinly disguised analogue of France—from medieval times to the modern times and into a future of a monstrous super-city—which eventually collapses. This is followed by a renewed Feudalism and agrarian society, and a gradual building up of increasingly advanced civilization—culminating with a new monstrous super-city which would eventually collapse again, and so on. 1073: 1514:, published in 1951). He claims that each civilization passes through a minimum of three 1700-year cycles. As part of civilizations, empires have an average lifespan of 550 years. He also stated that by knowing the nature of these cycles, it could be possible to modify the cycles in such a way that change could be peaceful instead of leading to war. Deulofeu believed he had found the origin of 84: 1500:(1937, 1943). He classified societies according to their 'cultural mentality', which can be ideational (reality is spiritual), sensate (reality is material), or idealistic (a synthesis of the two). He interpreted the contemporary West as a sensate civilization dedicated to technological progress and prophesied its fall into decadence and the emergence of a new ideational or idealistic era. 43: 1617: 2255:. According to the theory, historical events are associated with recurring generational personas (archetypes). Each generational persona unleashes a new era (called a turning) in which a new social, political, and economic climate exists. Turnings tend to last around 20–22 years. They are part of a larger cyclical " 1443:(1869), differentiated between various smaller civilizations (Egyptian, Chinese, Persian, Greek, Roman, German, and Slav, among others). He wrote that each civilization has a life cycle, and by the end of the 19th century the Roman-German civilization was in decline, while the Slav civilization was approaching its 1344:

and the monarchy degenerates into a tyranny. Because of the excesses of the ruler the tyranny is overthrown by the leading citizens of the state who set up an aristocracy. They too quickly forget about virtue and the state becomes an oligarchy. These oligarchs are overthrown by the people who set up

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It has become possible to model these dynamics mathematically in a rather effective way. Note that the modern theories of political-demographic cycles do not deny the presence of trend dynamics and attempt at the study of the interaction between cyclical and trend components of historical dynamics.

1758:(or K-Waves). The first hegemon would have been Portugal during the 16th century, then the Netherlands during the 17th century. Next, Great Britain served twice, first during the 18th century, then during the 19th century. The United States has been serving as hegemon since the end of World War II. 1735:

The long cycle, according to Dr. Dan Cox, is a period of time lasting approximately 70 to 100 years. At the end of that period, "the title of most powerful nation in the world switches hands." Modelski divides the long cycle into four phases. When periods of global war, which could last as much as

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seeking to preserve a remnant of old texts (as it did in the historical Early Middle Ages), and ends with a new civilization, built up over two thousand years, once again destroying itself in a nuclear war—and a new group of Catholic clergy yet again setting out to preserve a remnant of civilized

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has proposed that American history has had several bursts of "creedal passion" roughly every 60 years. These are efforts to bring American government closer to the "American creed" of being "egalitarian, participatory, open, noncoercive, and responsive to the demands of individuals and groups."

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has proposed that American history has gone through several regimes, with four main types of presidencies. Each regime has a dominant party and an opposition party. The President involved in starting it is a "reconstructive" one, and that President's successors in the dominant party are

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Frank Klingberg has proposed a cyclic theory of US foreign policy. It states that the US alternates between extroverted phases, phases involving military adventures, challenging other nations, and annexing territory, and introverted phases, phases with the absence of these activities.

1381:. His version of the anacyclosis is heavily inspired by Polybius' writings. Cicero argues, contrary to Polybius, that the Roman state can prevail and will not succumb to the harmful cycle despite its mixed government, as long as the Roman Republic will return to its ancient virtues ( 2226:

Disintegrative phases typically do not have continuous disorder, but instead periods of strife alternating with relatively peaceful periods. This alternation typically has a period of about two human generation times (40 – 60 years), and Turchin calls it a "fathers and sons" cycle.

1697:") (Usher 1989). At the moment there are a considerable number of such models (Chu and Lee 1994; Nefedov 1999, 2002, 2003, 2004; S. Malkov, Kovalev, and A. Malkov 2000; S. Malkov and A. Malkov 2000; Malkov and Sergeev 2002, 2004a, 2004b; Malkov et al. 2002; Malkov 2002, 2003, 2004; 1723:

Long cycles, or long waves, offer perspectives on global politics by permitting "the careful exploration of the ways in which world wars have recurred, and lead states such as Britain and the United States have succeeded each other in an orderly manner." Not to be confused with

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over its history. Each one is a characteristic platform and set of constituencies of each of the two major parties. A new party system emerges from a burst of reform, and in some cases, the disintegration of a party in the previous system (1st: Federalist, 2nd: Whig).

2036:, and Sergey Malkov. What is important is that on the basis of their models Nefedov, Turchin and Malkov have managed to demonstrate that sociodemographic cycles were a basic feature of complex agrarian systems (and not a specifically Chinese or European phenomenon). 1750:

Modelski used to believe that long cycles were a product of the modern period. He suggests that the five long cycles, which have taken place since about 1500, are each a part of a larger global system cycle, or the modern world system.

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as progressing in some new, unique direction(s), sociological cycle theory argues that events and stages of society and history generally repeat themselves in cycles. Such a theory does not necessarily imply that there cannot be any

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as the embodiment of this mixed constitution, and this would explain why the Roman Republic was so powerful and why it would remain stable for a longer amount of time. Polybius' full description can be found in Book VI of his

1408:. Although Machiavelli adopts the idea of the circular structure in which types of governments alternate, he does not accept Polybius' idea that the cycle naturally devolves through the exact same pattern of governments. 1909:

blockaded (the term "quarantined" being used because a blockade is an act of war), the island of Cuba and negotiated the Soviet missiles' removal from Cuba (in exchange for the subsequent removal of US missiles from

3134: 3432:"(Page 7 of 56) - Long-Term US Foreign Policy Moods and Involvement in System Wars: Is There Any Way to Reduce the Odds? authored by Lawrence, Colin., Holmes, Jack., Johnson, Lauren. and Aardema, Sara" 1670:

One of the most important recent findings in the study of the long-term dynamic social processes was the discovery of the political-demographic cycles as a basic feature of the dynamics of complex

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Each kind of phase generates the other. Liberal phases generate conservative phases from activism burnout, and conservative phases generate liberal phases from accumulation of unsolved problems.

2345:"articulating" ones. However, opposition-party Presidents are often elected, "preemptive" ones. A regime ends with having a President or two from its dominant party, a "disjunctive" President. 2000:

analysis which has found that recessions are essentially random events, and the probability of a recession does not show any kind of pattern across time. Despite frequent use of the term

1353:: the idea that the ideal government is one that blends elements of monarchy, aristocracy, and democracy. Aristotle mentions this notion but pays little attention to it. Polybius saw the 1956:

acting in South Vietnam. Ultimately, following the defeat of South Vietnam and the United States, the US's governing belief that South Vietnam's defeat would result in all of remaining

1720:(1987), is the chief architect of long cycle theory. Long cycle theory describes the connection between war cycles, economic supremacy, and the political aspects of world leadership. 3431: 1340:. Originally society is in ochlocracy but the strongest figure emerges and sets up a monarchy. The monarch's descendants, who lack virtue because of their family's power, become 2057:

As has been shown by Nefedov, most complex agrarian systems had considerable reserves for stability, however, within 50–150 years these reserves were usually exhausted and the

1206:. They all came up with their own interpretation of the cycle, and possible solutions to break the cycle, since they thought the cycle to be harmful. Later writers such as 2815:"A Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics: Kondratieff Waves, Kuznets Swings, Juglar and Kitchin Cycles in Global Economic Development, and the 2008–2009 Economic Crisis" 3713:

Complex historical dynamics of crisis: the case of Byzantium (with an extensive discussion of the concept of secular cycles from the point of view of medieval studies)

2012:. It is widely agreed that fluctuations in economic activity do not exhibit any kind of predictable repetition over time, and the appearance of cycles is a result of 1739:

Many traditional theories of international relations, including the other approaches to hegemony, believe that the baseline nature of the international system is

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a democracy. Democracy soon becomes corrupt and degenerates into ochlocracy, beginning the cycle anew. Polybius's concept of the cycle of governments is called

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developed a mathematical model of social cycles that he claimed fit historical facts. He argued that civilizations and empires go through cycles in his book

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was identified in Roman times. In recent times, P. R. Sarkar in his social cycle theory has used this idea to elaborate his interpretation of history.

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Slutzky, Eugen. "The summation of random causes as the source of cyclic processes." Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society (1937): 105-146.

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depicts various kinds of cyclical history, with depictions of civilization collapsing and being slowly built up again to collapse again and so on.

2284: 1218:. The more limited cyclical view of history defined as repeating cycles of events was put forward in the academic world in the 19th century in 681: 3530: 1824:, Germany had been unified between 1864 and 1871, and then had seen 40 years' rapid industrial, military, and colonial expansion. In 1914 the 2658: 2454: 2236: 1981:(also called supercycles, great surges, long waves, K-waves or the long economic cycle) are hypothesized cycle-like phenomena in the modern 1805:, which were then addressed, and Britain concentrated on colonial expansion and took no further part in European wars until the outbreak of 2650: 2625: 1743:. Modelski's long cycle theory, however, states that war and other destabilizing events are a natural product of the long cycle and larger 101: 56: 3745: 3479:

Fischer, David Hackett (1996). The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History. Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press.

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Drautzburg, Thorsten. "Why Are Recessions So Hard to Predict? Random Shocks and Business Cycles." Economic Insights 4, no. 1 (2019): 1-8.

1402:, appears to have adopted Polybius' version of the cycle. Machiavelli's adoption of anacyclosis can be seen in Book I, Chapter II of his 3435: 1103: 700: 3643: 1925:. After France, supported financially by the US, had been defeated in Vietnam in 1954 and that country had been temporarily split into 3694: 2515: 3767: 3651: 3564: 3540: 3516: 3502: 2925: 2427: 2050:

The system experiences significant stress with decline in the living standards of the common population, increasing the severity of

1921:(1955–1975): During World War II and the ensuing postwar period, the United States had greatly expanded its military capacities and 1657: 1042: 1032: 736: 696: 247: 229: 167: 70: 148: 2532: 2084:

As a result of this collapse, free resources became available, per capita production and consumption considerably increased, the

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values are strong. Ultimately, succeeding generational archetypes attack and weaken institutions in the name of autonomy and

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Under the terms of long cycle theory, five hegemonic long cycles have taken place, each strongly correlating to economic

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and by degrees allowed itself to be drawn into South Vietnam's losing struggle against communist North Vietnam and the

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and the more recent theories of long-term ("secular") political-demographic cycles as well as in the Varnic theory of

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Chu, C. Y. C., and R. D. Lee. (1994) Famine, Revolt, and the Dynastic Cycle: Population Dynamics in Historic China.

3789: 3135:"What Time Is It? Here's What the 2016 Election Tells Us About Obama, Trump, and What Comes Next | The Nation" 1037: 535: 2882:

Chatterjee, Satyajit. "From cycles to shocks: Progress in business cycle theory." Business Review 3 (2000): 27-37.

94: 3602:(1967). Human Society-2, Ananda Marga Publications, Anandanagar, P.O. Baglata, Dist. Purulia, West Bengal, India. 2292: 2288: 1993:

and intervals of relatively slow growth. They are estimated to be roughly between 10.3²x 10 and 10.3² megahertz.

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George Modelski. Long Cycles in World Politics. Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1987, 100, 135 and 227.

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level societies worldwide has been known for quite a long time, and already in the 1980s more or less developed

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The population cycle drives human history - from a eugenic phase into a dysgenic phase and eventual collapse.

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recurs in American history, which is followed by a recovery (high). During this recovery, institutions and

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Nefedov, S. A. (2004). A Model of Demographic Cycles in Traditional Societies: The Case of Ancient China.

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Conservative, containing democracy, private interest, property rights, concern with the rights of the few

2275:, which ultimately creates a tumultuous political environment that ripens conditions for another crisis. 1744: 1627: 3086: 1829: 1798: 1786: 1052: 877: 806: 781: 686: 611: 571: 531: 516: 481: 454: 381: 3334:

Klingberg, Frank J. (January 1952). "The Historical Alternation of Moods in American Foreign Policy".

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and to eastern Mediterranean trade routes to India. The Crimean War highlighted the poor state of the

2315: 2239:, also known as the Fourth Turning theory or simply the Fourth Turning, which was created by authors 1874: 1565: 1132: 1047: 901: 849: 816: 786: 621: 591: 581: 511: 496: 291: 286: 276: 3476:(1967) La Matemàtica de la Història (Mathematics of History), Figueres, Editorial Emporitana, 1967. 2369: 1690: 1420: 1195: 1128: 921: 666: 566: 404: 3571:

A Theory of Demographic Cycles and the Social Evolution of Ancient and Medieval Oriental Societies

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George Modelski. Long Cycles in World Politics. Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1987, 102

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Liberal, increasing democracy, public purpose, human rights, concern with the wrongs of the many

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Dynamical Feedbacks between Population Growth and Sociopolitical Instability in Agrarian States

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George Modelski. Long Cycles in World Politics. Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1987.

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one-fourth of the total long cycle, are factored in, the cycle can last from 87 to 122 years.

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models of long-term ("secular") sociodemographic cycles have been made by Sergey Nefedov,

2001: 1990: 1978: 1974: 1906: 1859: 1825: 1713: 1671: 1593: 1579: 1554: 1469: 1448: 1141: 1120: 1009: 1005: 989: 969: 897: 885: 774: 746: 691: 651: 416: 366: 3311:"Donald Trump will follow a failed political transformation, just like Benjamin Harrison" 2598: 1485:, which he divided into cunning 'foxes' and violent 'lions'. In his view of society, the 2979: 1164:

as repeating cycles of Dark and Golden Ages was a common belief among ancient cultures.

3686: 3672: 3589: 3526: 2933: 2690: 2674: 2389: 2374: 1986: 1942: 1843: 1833: 1794: 1778: 1694: 1597: 1542: 1526:, which he argued was the cradle of the second cycle of western European civilization. 1515: 1416: 1354: 1223: 1179: 1174: 1077: 993: 985: 981: 977: 929: 889: 476: 322: 3656: 3027:

Resnick, David; Thomas, Norman C. (Autumn 1990). "Cycling through American Politics".

1732:, or long-swings, long cycles of global politics are patterns of past world politics. 3783: 3639: 3625: 3615: 3556:

Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends in Africa.

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An intercycle is where a functioning state collapses and takes some time to rebuild.

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History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies.

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fought Germany to a standstill, to defeat, and to a humiliating peace settlement at

3217:"Review of The Politics Presidents Make: Leadership from John Adams to George Bush" 2363: 2328: 2025: 1997: 1894: 1870: 1863: 1838: 1802: 1482: 1428: 957: 909: 3689:(2020). IQ Means Inequality: The Population Cycle that Drives Human History. KDP. 1789:, and following the subsequent British railway boom of 1815–1853, Britain, in the 2643: 2259:" (a long human life, which usually spans between 80 and 90 years, although some 3394:"Linking the Levels: The Long Wave and Shifts in U.S. Foreign Policy, 1790-1993" 3160:"Opinion | The Fight Over How Trump Fits in With the Other 44 Presidents - 2062: 1918: 1817: 1806: 1790: 1782: 1729: 1575: 1399: 1395: 1383: 1321: 1281: 1235: 1187: 1149: 973: 945: 917: 801: 756: 486: 461: 83: 2411:"4. Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends" 1985:. It is stated that the period of a wave ranges from forty to sixty years, the 3087:"This 1981 book eerily predicted today's distrustful and angry political mood" 2997:

Brown, Jerald B. (June 1992). "The Wave Theory of American Social Movements".

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Plato and Aristotle on Constitutionalism: An Exposition and Reference Source

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Essays on Medieval Agriculture and General Problems of the Medieval Economy

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Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends.

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had entered its final phase of development and its decline was inevitable.

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The presence of political-demographic cycles in the pre-modern history of

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of demographic cycles started to be produced (first of all for Chinese "

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According to Polybius, who has the most fully developed version of the

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from Russian to German. Freeman, Chris; Louçã, Francisco (2001) pp 70

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Korotayev, Andrey V.; Malkov, Artemy S; Khaltourina, Daria A (2006).

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advanced the concept of the political midlife crisis in his book on "

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have lasted longer). The theory states that after every saeculum, a

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Recently the most important contributions to the development of the

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in eight weeks was to have been followed by the subjugation of the

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It states that US history alternates between two kinds of phases:

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constantly passes from the 'foxes' to the 'lions' and vice versa.

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Schlesinger liberal-conservative cycles of United States history

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Reduction of population, downward mobility, reduced consumption

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Usher, D. (1989). The Dynastic Cycle and the Stationary State.

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Social Theory: Its Origins, History, and Contemporary Relevance

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Such theories are dismissed by most economists on the basis of

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Huntington's creedal-passion episodes of United States history

2074: 1610: 1423:, growing and dying in stages akin to the seasons. He saw the 179: 77: 36: 1349:. Polybius, in contrast to Aristotle, focuses on the idea of 2715:

Jimmy Myers. "Missouri Western Faculty Discuss Iraq War."

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Cowlishaw, Brian (2004). "Phoenix". In Cumming, Mark (ed.).

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in a society. It was roughly based on the history of Greek

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The models have two main phases, each with two subphases.

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of land, its growth rate declines toward near-zero values.

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The first social cycle theory in sociology was created by

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Characteristic features of structural-demographic phases

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United States supported South Vietnam with materiel in a

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authors to describe what they considered as the cycle of

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and, following World War II, had become a rival nuclear

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Pollins, Brian M.; Schweller, Randall L. (April 1999).

2476:. Translated by Shorey, Paul. Harvard University Press. 30:"Cyclical pattern" redirects here. For other uses, see 3184:"Is Trump the last gasp of Reagan's Republican Party?" 2813:

Korotayev, Andrey V.; Tsirel, Sergey V. (2010-01-07).

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The Journal of Social, Political and Economic Studies

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Increasing population and competition and consumption

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and other disasters led to a considerable decline of

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Polybius' Theory of the Anacyclosis of Constitutions

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Skowronek United States Regimes and Presidency Types

1478:(1916). He centered his theory on the concept of an 1226:) and is a concept that falls under the category of 3379:

The Mood/Interest Theory of American Foreign Policy

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The Cycle of Decline of Regimes in Plato's Republic

1858:(1919) and the establishment of Germany's unstable 108:. Unsourced material may be challenged and removed. 2689:1973; Chao 1986; H. T. Wright 1984; Cameron 1989; 1989:consist of alternating intervals of high sectoral 2782:Long Cycles: Prosperity and War in the Modern Age 2088:resumed and a new sociodemographic cycle started. 1771:Long Cycles: Prosperity and War in the Modern Age 1574:, which begins in the aftermath of a devastating 3660:, Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics, 2014 2893:"Клиодинамика - математические методы в истории" 2349:Klingberg cycles of United States foreign policy 2043:After the population reaches the ceiling of the 1492:Sociological cycle theory was also developed by 1375:describes anacyclosis in his philosophical work 1246:can be seen as precursors of this analysis. The 2617:The Political Philosophy of Niccolò Machiavelli 2039:The basic logic of these models is as follows: 1269:describes his cycle of governments in his work 2620:. Edinburgh University Press. pp. 32–34. 2554:. Translated by Shuckburgh, Evelyn. Macmillan. 1960:"going communist" (as proclaimed by the US's " 3620:Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall 2004:to refer to changes in an economy around its 1773:, which offers four examples of the process: 1518:, during the 9th century, in an area between 1473: 1097: 8: 3622:. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. 3072:American Politics: The Promise of Disharmony 2848:"Will the Economic Recovery Die of Old Age?" 2799:originated from a poor early translation of 2771: 2769: 2737:Mark Rupert. "Hegemonic Stability Theory. 1638:. There might be a discussion about this on 1178:, "cycle") is a term used by some classical 2183:High population, conflicts, high inequality 71:Learn how and when to remove these messages 1104: 1090: 275: 259: 3768:Learn how and when to remove this message 2830: 1658:Learn how and when to remove this message 1419:conceived of history as though it were a 248:Learn how and when to remove this message 230:Learn how and when to remove this message 168:Learn how and when to remove this message 3731:This article includes a list of general 3596:. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 2916:Turchin, Peter; Nefedov, Sergei (2009). 2854:. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. 2191:State strength and collective solidarity 2125: 193:This article includes a list of general 3111:"The Presidency in the Political Order" 3022: 3020: 2959: 2957: 2846:Rudebusch, Glenn D. (4 February 2016). 2401: 2287:is a theory of US history developed by 2285:cyclical theory (United States history) 1897:, shipped nuclear missiles to Castro's 1190:in the same period. The concept of the 267: 3610:The Collapse of Complex Civilizations. 1716:, who presented his ideas in the book 1447:. A similar theory was put forward by 3398:American Journal of Political Science 2069:), when increasingly severe famines, 1797:, which was perceived as a threat to 1173: 7: 3708:Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends 2651:Fairleigh Dickinson University Press 2419:Introduction to Social Macrodynamics 106:adding citations to reliable sources 3381:. The University Press of Kentucky. 1427:as the ashes or winter of European 1276:Book VIII and IX. He distinguishes 3737:it lacks sufficient corresponding 2247:, describes a theorized recurring 199:it lacks sufficient corresponding 25: 52:This article has multiple issues. 3722: 3280:10.1111/j.0268-2141.2003.00054.x 2964:Schlesinger, Arthur Jr. (1999). 2946:Schlesinger, Arthur Sr. (1949). 2237:Strauss–Howe generational theory 1901:, 70 miles from the US state of 1836:, leaving Germany the master of 1615: 1071: 184: 82: 41: 3468:Journal of Population Economics 2697:1994; Mugruzin 1986, 1994, etc. 2146:Stagflation phase (compression) 1475:Trattato di Sociologia Generale 657:Peace, war, and social conflict 93:needs additional citations for 60:or discuss these issues on the 3583:Social Evolution & History 3268:Presidential Studies Quarterly 3070:Huntington, Samuel P. (1981). 2966:The Cycles of American History 2920:. Princeton University Press. 2614:Del Lucchese, Filippo (2015). 2327:The United States has had six 2177:Low population and consumption 2149:Crisis phase (state breakdown) 2114:Crisis phase (state breakdown) 1820:(1914–1918): Under Chancellor 1412:19th and 20th century theories 1: 3309:Adler, William (2016-12-19). 3262:Hoekstra, Douglas J. (1999). 3221:Journal of the Early Republic 2008:, the phrase is considered a 1862:(1919–1933), in a prelude to 1718:Long Cycles in World Politics 1589:October the First Is Too Late 1454:Der Untergang des Abendlandes 3667:The American Economic Review 3553:& Khaltourina D. (2006) 2980:"CYCLES OF AMERICAN HISTORY" 2968:. Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. 2740:"Hegemonic Stability Theory" 2449:. Rowman & Littlefield. 2443:Rossides, Daniel W. (1998). 1498:Social and Cultural Dynamics 1457:(1918) also argued that the 3612:Cambridge University Press. 3487:for 1999 paperback reprint. 3085:Drutman, Lee (2016-01-06). 2649:. Madison and Teaneck, NJ: 2597:Machiavelli (1883). "I:2". 2571:. Translated by Keyes, C.W. 2323:United States Party Systems 3811: 3215:Ellis, Richard J. (1995). 2470:Plato (1969). "VIII, IX". 2208:Sociopolitical instability 1586:In the future depicted in 1468:sociologist and economist 1259: 328:Human environmental impact 29: 2584:"Cicero Reading Polybius" 2293:Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr. 2289:Arthur M. Schlesinger Sr. 2137: 2134: 2131: 2106:Stagflation (compression) 2054:, growing rebellions etc. 1889:. In 1962 Soviet Premier 1846:). In the event, France, 1144:. In the early theory of 3630:Structure & Dynamics 3377:Holmes, Jack E. (1985). 3011:10.1525/city.1992.6.1.26 2645:The Carlyle Encyclopedia 2152:Depression / Intercycle 2143:Expansion phase (growth) 1571:A Canticle for Leibowitz 1536:post-apocalyptic fiction 1278:five forms of government 422:Structural functionalism 3752:more precise citations. 3642:, et al., eds. (2007). 3569:Nefedov, S. A. (2003). 2785:, Yale University Press 2681:1963; Abel 1974, 1980; 2582:Beek, Aaron L. (2011). 2548:Polybius (1889). "VI". 2203:Attempts at rebuilding 2117:Depression / intercycle 1958:Mainland Southeast Asia 1202:, and most extensively 1194:is first elaborated by 1127:. Unlike the theory of 1119:are among the earliest 442:Symbolic interactionism 337:Industrial revolutions 214:more precise citations. 27:Type of social theories 3600:Prabhat Rainjan Sarkar 2819:Structure and Dynamics 2717:St. Joseph News-Press. 2531:Hermans, M.A. (1991). 2510:. Ashgate Publishing. 2073:, increasing internal 2067:Malthusian catastrophe 1558: 1508:Mathematics of History 1474: 1156:Historical forerunners 432:Social constructionism 3795:Sociological theories 3461:The Prophets of Doom. 2852:FRBSF Economic Letter 2487:G.A. Plauche (2011). 2231:Fourth Turning theory 2138:Disintegrative phase 2111:Disintegrative phase 2020:Secular cycles theory 1964:"), proved erroneous. 1787:Industrial Revolution 1607:Contemporary theories 1398:, writing during the 1260:Further information: 1117:Social cycle theories 807:Conversation analysis 382:Social stratification 117:"Social cycle theory" 3459:Parvini, N. (2023). 2948:Paths to the Present 2693:1991; Kul'pin 1990; 2340:Political scientist 2316:Samuel P. Huntington 1875:Cuban Missile Crisis 1628:confusing or unclear 1566:Walter M. Miller Jr. 1541:An early example is 1530:Literary expressions 1459:Western civilization 1262:Plato's five regimes 1133:evolution of society 102:improve this article 3525:, Malkov A., & 3463:Andrews UK Limited. 2932:table adapted from 2832:10.5070/SD941003306 2685:1974; Hodder 1978; 2370:Historic recurrence 2197:High but decreasing 2128: 1745:global system cycle 1691:mathematical models 1636:clarify the section 1564:A later example is 1559:L'Île des Pingouins 1129:social evolutionism 392:Social cycle theory 263:Part of a series on 3646:Moscow: KomKniga. 3509:Sohail Inayatullah 3495:Sohail Inayatullah 3474:Alexandre Deulofeu 3169:The New York Times 3162:The New York Times 2999:City & Society 2600:Discourses on Livy 2380:Revolutionary wave 2126: 2103:Expansion (growth) 2100:Integrative phase 1850:, Russia, and the 1763:Joshua S Goldstein 1504:Alexandre Deulofeu 1494:Pitirim A. Sorokin 1437:Nikolai Danilewski 1405:Discourses on Livy 1160:Interpretation of 1131:, which views the 1078:Society portal 701:History of science 682:Race and ethnicity 362:Social environment 3790:Cyclical theories 3778: 3777: 3770: 3658:Trends and Cycles 3115:spot.colorado.edu 2777:Goldstein, Joshua 2660:978-0-8386-3792-0 2504:R. Polin (1977). 2456:978-1-882289-50-9 2385:Societal collapse 2342:Stephen Skowronek 2224: 2223: 2135:Integrative phase 2086:population growth 2045:carrying capacity 1891:Nikita Khrushchev 1822:Otto von Bismarck 1767:Long Cycle Theory 1756:Kondratieff Waves 1709:Long cycle theory 1668: 1667: 1660: 1425:French Revolution 1244:Giambattista Vico 1214:commented on the 1114: 1113: 832:Social experiment 712:Social psychology 357:Social complexity 258: 257: 250: 240: 239: 232: 178: 177: 170: 152: 75: 16:(Redirected from 3802: 3773: 3766: 3762: 3759: 3753: 3748:this article by 3739:inline citations 3726: 3725: 3718: 3447: 3446: 3444: 3443: 3434:. 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US President 1860:Weimar Republic 1828:for conquering 1826:Schlieffen Plan 1793:, attacked the 1714:George Modelski 1711: 1695:dynastic cycles 1664: 1653: 1647: 1644: 1633: 1620: 1616: 1609: 1594:science fiction 1580:Catholic Church 1532: 1470:Vilfredo Pareto 1449:Oswald Spengler 1414: 1393: 1370: 1310: 1264: 1258: 1158: 1142:social progress 1121:social theories 1110: 1070: 1063: 1062: 1023: 1013: 1012: 940: 866: 852: 850:Major theorists 842: 841: 777: 767: 766: 457: 447: 446: 417:Critical theory 412:Conflict theory 407: 397: 396: 367:Social equality 308: 254: 243: 242: 241: 236: 225: 219: 216: 206:Please help to 205: 189: 185: 174: 163: 157: 154: 111: 109: 99: 87: 46: 42: 35: 28: 23: 22: 15: 12: 11: 5: 3808: 3806: 3798: 3797: 3792: 3782: 3781: 3776: 3775: 3730: 3728: 3721: 3716: 3715: 3710: 3703: 3702:External links 3700: 3699: 3698: 3695:979-8608184406 3687:Weiss, Volkmar 3684: 3673:Weiss, Volkmar 3670: 3663: 3654: 3637: 3623: 3613: 3603: 3597: 3587: 3578: 3567: 3559:Moscow: URSS. 3548: 3535:Moscow: URSS. 3527:Khaltourina D. 3520: 3506: 3488: 3477: 3471: 3464: 3455: 3452: 3449: 3448: 3423: 3404:(2): 431–464. 3384: 3369: 3342:(2): 239–273. 3336:World Politics 3326: 3301: 3274:(3): 657–671. 3254: 3227:(1): 128–130. 3207: 3175: 3151: 3126: 3102: 3077: 3062: 3016: 2989: 2971: 2953: 2938: 2926: 2918:Secular Cycles 2908: 2884: 2875: 2866: 2857: 2838: 2805: 2788: 2765: 2756: 2730: 2721: 2708: 2699: 2666: 2659: 2633: 2626: 2606: 2589: 2574: 2557: 2540: 2523: 2517:978-1840143010 2516: 2496: 2479: 2462: 2455: 2435: 2428: 2400: 2399: 2397: 2394: 2393: 2392: 2390:State collapse 2387: 2382: 2377: 2375:List of cycles 2372: 2367: 2359: 2356: 2350: 2347: 2337: 2334: 2324: 2321: 2311: 2308: 2304: 2303: 2300: 2280: 2277: 2232: 2229: 2222: 2221: 2218: 2215: 2212: 2209: 2205: 2204: 2201: 2198: 2195: 2192: 2188: 2187: 2184: 2181: 2178: 2175: 2171: 2170: 2169:Slow decrease 2167: 2164: 2161: 2158: 2154: 2153: 2150: 2147: 2144: 2140: 2139: 2136: 2133: 2121: 2120: 2119: 2118: 2115: 2109: 2108: 2107: 2104: 2090: 2089: 2082: 2061:experienced a 2055: 2048: 2021: 2018: 1970: 1967: 1966: 1965: 1943:anti-communist 1935:Geneva Accords 1911: 1867: 1844:Central Europe 1834:Russian Empire 1810: 1795:Russian Empire 1779:British Empire 1710: 1707: 1705:et al. 2006). 1666: 1665: 1623: 1621: 1614: 1608: 1605: 1598:astrophysicist 1551:Penguin Island 1543:Anatole France 1531: 1528: 1516:Romanesque art 1417:Thomas Carlyle 1413: 1410: 1392: 1389: 1369: 1366: 1355:Roman Republic 1309: 1306: 1257: 1254: 1224:historiography 1157: 1154: 1112: 1111: 1109: 1108: 1101: 1094: 1086: 1083: 1082: 1081: 1080: 1065: 1064: 1061: 1060: 1055: 1050: 1045: 1040: 1035: 1030: 1024: 1019: 1018: 1015: 1014: 868: 867: 853: 848: 847: 844: 843: 840: 839: 834: 829: 824: 819: 814: 809: 804: 799: 794: 789: 784: 778: 773: 772: 769: 768: 765: 764: 759: 754: 749: 744: 739: 734: 729: 724: 719: 714: 709: 704: 694: 689: 684: 679: 674: 669: 664: 659: 654: 649: 644: 639: 634: 629: 624: 619: 614: 609: 604: 599: 594: 589: 584: 579: 574: 569: 564: 559: 554: 549: 544: 539: 529: 524: 519: 514: 509: 504: 499: 494: 489: 484: 479: 477:Astrosociology 474: 469: 464: 458: 453: 452: 449: 448: 445: 444: 439: 434: 429: 424: 419: 414: 408: 403: 402: 399: 398: 395: 394: 389: 384: 379: 374: 369: 364: 359: 354: 349: 335: 330: 325: 323:Human behavior 320: 315: 309: 306: 305: 302: 301: 300: 299: 294: 289: 281: 280: 272: 271: 265: 264: 256: 255: 238: 237: 192: 190: 183: 176: 175: 90: 88: 81: 76: 50: 49: 47: 40: 26: 24: 14: 13: 10: 9: 6: 4: 3: 2: 3807: 3796: 3793: 3791: 3788: 3787: 3785: 3772: 3769: 3761: 3751: 3747: 3741: 3740: 3734: 3729: 3720: 3719: 3714: 3711: 3709: 3706: 3705: 3701: 3696: 3692: 3688: 3685: 3682: 3678: 3674: 3671: 3668: 3664: 3661: 3659: 3655: 3653: 3652:5-484-01002-0 3649: 3645: 3641: 3638: 3635: 3631: 3627: 3624: 3621: 3617: 3614: 3611: 3607: 3604: 3601: 3598: 3595: 3591: 3590:Postan, M. M. 3588: 3585: 3584: 3579: 3576: 3572: 3568: 3566: 3565:5-484-00560-4 3562: 3558: 3557: 3552: 3551:Korotayev, A. 3549: 3546: 3542: 3541:5-484-00559-0 3538: 3534: 3533: 3528: 3524: 3521: 3518: 3517:90-04-12842-5 3514: 3510: 3507: 3504: 3503:0-275-95755-1 3500: 3496: 3492: 3491:Johan Galtung 3489: 3486: 3482: 3478: 3475: 3472: 3469: 3465: 3462: 3458: 3457: 3453: 3438:on 2020-01-23 3437: 3433: 3427: 3424: 3419: 3415: 3411: 3407: 3403: 3399: 3395: 3388: 3385: 3380: 3373: 3370: 3365: 3361: 3357: 3353: 3349: 3345: 3341: 3337: 3330: 3327: 3316: 3312: 3305: 3302: 3297: 3293: 3289: 3285: 3281: 3277: 3273: 3269: 3265: 3258: 3255: 3250: 3246: 3242: 3238: 3234: 3230: 3226: 3222: 3218: 3211: 3208: 3197: 3193: 3189: 3185: 3179: 3176: 3171: 3170: 3165: 3163: 3155: 3152: 3141:on 2020-01-06 3140: 3136: 3130: 3127: 3116: 3112: 3106: 3103: 3092: 3088: 3081: 3078: 3073: 3066: 3063: 3058: 3054: 3050: 3046: 3042: 3038: 3034: 3030: 3023: 3021: 3017: 3012: 3008: 3004: 3000: 2993: 2990: 2985: 2981: 2975: 2972: 2967: 2960: 2958: 2954: 2949: 2942: 2939: 2935: 2934:First Chapter 2929: 2927:9781400830688 2923: 2919: 2912: 2909: 2898: 2894: 2888: 2885: 2879: 2876: 2870: 2867: 2861: 2858: 2853: 2849: 2842: 2839: 2833: 2828: 2824: 2820: 2816: 2809: 2806: 2802: 2798: 2792: 2789: 2784: 2783: 2778: 2772: 2770: 2766: 2760: 2757: 2746:on 2002-12-14 2745: 2741: 2734: 2731: 2725: 2722: 2718: 2712: 2709: 2703: 2700: 2696: 2692: 2688: 2684: 2680: 2676: 2670: 2667: 2662: 2656: 2652: 2647: 2646: 2637: 2634: 2629: 2623: 2619: 2618: 2610: 2607: 2602: 2601: 2593: 2590: 2585: 2578: 2575: 2570: 2569: 2568:De re publica 2561: 2558: 2553: 2552: 2551:The Histories 2544: 2541: 2536: 2535: 2527: 2524: 2519: 2513: 2509: 2508: 2500: 2497: 2492: 2491: 2483: 2480: 2475: 2474: 2466: 2463: 2458: 2452: 2448: 2447: 2439: 2436: 2431: 2429:5-484-00559-0 2425: 2421: 2420: 2412: 2405: 2402: 2395: 2391: 2388: 2386: 2383: 2381: 2378: 2376: 2373: 2371: 2368: 2365: 2362: 2361: 2357: 2355: 2348: 2346: 2343: 2335: 2333: 2330: 2329:party systems 2322: 2320: 2317: 2307: 2301: 2298: 2297: 2296: 2294: 2290: 2286: 2278: 2276: 2274: 2273:individualism 2270: 2269:communitarian 2266: 2262: 2258: 2254: 2250: 2246: 2242: 2238: 2230: 2228: 2219: 2216: 2213: 2210: 2207: 2206: 2202: 2199: 2196: 2193: 2190: 2189: 2185: 2182: 2179: 2176: 2173: 2172: 2168: 2165: 2163:Slow increase 2162: 2159: 2156: 2155: 2151: 2148: 2145: 2142: 2141: 2130: 2124: 2116: 2113: 2112: 2110: 2105: 2102: 2101: 2099: 2098: 2097: 2094: 2087: 2083: 2080: 2076: 2072: 2068: 2064: 2060: 2056: 2053: 2049: 2046: 2042: 2041: 2040: 2037: 2035: 2031: 2030:Peter Turchin 2027: 2019: 2017: 2015: 2011: 2007: 2003: 1999: 1994: 1992: 1988: 1984: 1983:world economy 1980: 1976: 1968: 1963: 1962:domino theory 1959: 1955: 1951: 1948: 1944: 1940: 1939:Ngo Dinh Diem 1936: 1932: 1931:South Vietnam 1928: 1924: 1920: 1916: 1915:United States 1912: 1908: 1904: 1900: 1896: 1892: 1888: 1887:United States 1884: 1880: 1879:Joseph Stalin 1876: 1872: 1868: 1865: 1861: 1857: 1853: 1852:United States 1849: 1845: 1841: 1840: 1835: 1831: 1827: 1823: 1819: 1815: 1814:German Empire 1811: 1808: 1804: 1800: 1799:British India 1796: 1792: 1788: 1784: 1780: 1776: 1775: 1774: 1772: 1768: 1764: 1759: 1757: 1752: 1748: 1746: 1742: 1737: 1733: 1731: 1727: 1726:Simon Kuznets 1721: 1719: 1715: 1708: 1706: 1704: 1701:2003, 2005a; 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