506:. This approach involves three steps: with a specific project in mind, identify a number of past projects that share a large number of elements with the project under scrutiny; for this group of projects, establish a probability distribution of the parameter that is being forecast; and, compare the specific project with the group of similar projects, in order to establish the most likely value of the selected parameter for the specific project. This simply stated method masks potential complexity regarding application to real-life projects: few projects are characterizable by a single parameter; multiple parameters exponentially complicates the process; gathering sufficient data on which to build robust probability distributions is problematic; and, project outcomes are rarely unambiguous and their reportage is often skewed by stakeholders' interests. Nonetheless, this approach has merit as part of a cognitive bias mitigation protocol when the process is applied with a maximum of diligence, in situations where good data is available and all stakeholders can be expected to cooperate.
140:, in which a July 23, 1983 Air Canada flight from Montreal to Edmonton ran out of fuel 41,000 feet over Manitoba because of a measurement error on refueling, an outcome later determined to be the result of a series of unchecked assumptions made by ground personnel. Without power to operate radio, radar or other navigation aids, and only manual operation of the aircraft's control surfaces, the flight crew managed to locate an abandoned Canadian Air Force landing strip near Gimli, Manitoba. Without engine power, and with only manual wheel braking, the pilot put the aircraft down, complete with 61 passengers plus crew, and safely brought it to a stop. This outcome was the result of skill (the pilot had glider experience) and luck (the co-pilot just happened to know about the airstrip); there were no deaths, the damage to the aircraft was modest, and there were knowledgeable survivors to inform modifications to fueling procedures at all Canadian airports.
589:, of their actualization and then choosing which advisories, if any, to act on. In this view, System 2 is slow, simple-minded and lazy, usually defaulting to System 1 advisories and overriding them only when intensively trained to do so or when cognitive dissonance would result. In this view, our 'heuristic toolkit' resides largely in System 1, conforming to the view of cognitive biases being unconscious, automatic and very difficult to detect and override. Evolutionary psychology practitioners emphasize that our heuristic toolkit, despite the apparent abundance of 'reasoning errors' attributed to it, actually performs exceptionally well, given the rate at which it must operate, the range of judgments it produces, and the stakes involved. The System 1/2 view of the human reasoning mechanism appears to have empirical plausibility (see
562:, Tooby, Haselton, Confer and others posit that cognitive biases are more properly referred to as cognitive heuristics, and should be viewed as a toolkit of cognitive shortcuts selected for by evolutionary pressure and thus are features rather than flaws, as assumed in the prevalent view. Theoretical models and analyses supporting this view are plentiful. This view suggests that negative reasoning outcomes arise primarily because the reasoning challenges faced by modern humans, and the social and political context within which these are presented, make demands on our ancient 'heuristic toolkit' that at best create confusion as to which heuristics to apply in a given situation, and at worst generate what adherents of the prevalent view call 'reasoning errors'.
647:. Although there is some attention paid to the human reasoning mechanism itself, the dominant approach is to anticipate problematic situations, constrain human operations through process mandates, and guide human decisions through fixed response protocols specific to the domain involved. While this approach can produce effective responses to critical situations under stress, the protocols involved must be viewed as having limited generalizability beyond the domain for which they were developed, with the implication that solutions in this discipline may provide only generic frameworks to a theory and practice of cognitive bias mitigation.
577:, and possibly other cognitive biases, which is a radical departure from the prevalent view, which holds that human reasoning is intended to assist individual economic decisions. Their view suggests that it evolved as a social phenomenon and that the goal was argumentation, i.e. to convince others and to be careful when others try to convince us. It is too early to tell whether this idea applies more generally to other cognitive biases, but the point of view supporting the theory may be useful in the construction of a theory and practice of cognitive bias mitigation.
205:, an accomplished professional in the medical field, recounts the results of an initiative at a major US hospital, in which a test run showed that doctors skipped at least one of only 5 steps in 1/3 of certain surgery cases, after which nurses were given the authority and responsibility to catch doctors missing any steps in a simple checklist aimed at reducing central line infections. In the subsequent 15-month period, infection rates went from 11% to 0%, 8 deaths were avoided and some $ 2 million in avoidable costs were saved.
199:, in which several Computer Aided Dispatch (CAD) system failures resulted in out-of-specification service delays and reports of deaths attributed to these delays. A 1992 system failure was particularly impactful, with service delays of up to 11 hours resulting in an estimated 30 unnecessary deaths in addition to hundreds of delayed medical procedures. This incident is one example of how large computer system development projects exhibit major flaws in planning, design, execution, test, deployment and maintenance.
382:, is a method of studying strategic decision making in situations involving multi-step interactions with multiple agents with or without perfect information. As with decision theory, the theoretical underpinning of game theory assumes that all decision makers are rational agents trying to maximize the economic expected value/utility of their choices, and that to accomplish this they utilize formal analytical methods such as mathematics, probability, statistics, and logic under cognitive resource constraints.
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suggests that for the task of estimating software projects, despite the strong analytical aspect of this task, standards of performance focusing on workplace social context were much more dominant than formal analytical methods. This finding, if generalizable to other tasks and disciplines, would discount the potential of expert-level training as a cognitive bias mitigation approach, and could contribute a narrow but important idea to a theory and practice of cognitive bias mitigation.
281:, the tendency to judge something as belonging to a class based on a few salient characteristics without accounting for base rates of those characteristics. For example, the belief that one will not become an alcoholic because one lacks some characteristic of an alcoholic stereotype, or, that one has a higher probability to win the lottery because one buys tickets from the same kind of vendor as several known big winners.
305:, the tendency to estimate that what is easily remembered is more likely than that which is not. For example, estimating that an information meeting on municipal planning will be boring because the last such meeting you attended (on a different topic) was so, or, not believing your Member of Parliament's promise to fight for women's equality because he didn't show up to your home bake sale fundraiser for him.
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attribution error, projection bias, and representativeness), provided participants with individualized feedback, mitigating strategies, and practice, resulted in an immediate reduction of more than 30% in commission of the biases and a long term (2 to 3-month delay) reduction of more than 20%. The instructional videos were also effective, but were less effective than the games.
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range of scenarios, game theory predictions, like those in decision theory, often do not match actual human choices. As with decision theory, practitioners tend to view such deviations as 'irrational', and rather than attempt to model such behavior, by implication hold that cognitive bias mitigation can only be achieved by decision makers becoming more like rational agents.
90:, and perhaps other cognitive biases. Five people, including both expedition leaders, lost their lives despite explicit warnings in briefings prior to and during the ascent of Everest. In addition to the leaders' mistakes, most team members, though they recognized their leader's faulty judgments, failed to insist on following through on the established ascent rules.
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reported in popular-audience media of firefighter captains, military platoon leaders and others making correct, snap judgments under extreme duress suggest that these responses are likely not generalizable and may contribute to a theory and practice of cognitive bias mitigation only the general idea of domain-specific intensive training.
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253:, the tendency to react to how information is framed, beyond its factual content. For example, choosing no surgery when told it has a 10% failure rate, where one would have opted for surgery if told it has a 90% success rate, or, opting not to choose organ donation as part of driver's license renewal when the default is 'No'.
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optimal decision strategies are available for all agents, real-life decision-makers often do not find them; indeed they sometimes apparently do not even try to find them, suggesting that some agents are not consistently 'rational'. game theory does not appear to accommodate any kind of agent other than the rational agent.
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amount of appropriate real world 'training sets' for the neural network portion of such models; characterizing real-life decision-making situations and outcomes so as to drive models effectively; and the lack of direct mapping from a neural network's internal structure to components of the human reasoning mechanism.
261:, the tendency to produce an estimate near a cue amount that may or may not have been intentionally offered. For example, producing a quote based on a manager's preferences, or, negotiating a house purchase price from the starting amount suggested by a real estate agent rather than an objective assessment of value.
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do; practitioners tend to acknowledge the persistent existence of 'irrational' behavior, and while some mention human motivation and biases as possible contributors to such behavior, these factors are not made explicit in their models. Practitioners tend to treat deviations from what a rational agent
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An increasing number of academic and professional disciplines are identifying means of cognitive bias mitigation. What follows is a characterization of the assumptions, theories, methods and results, in disciplines concerned with the efficacy of human reasoning, that plausibly bear on a theory and/or
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of May 18, 2006, in which two mining professionals and two paramedics at the closed
Sullivan mine in British Columbia, Canada, all specifically trained in safety measures, lost their lives by failing to understand a life-threatening situation that in hindsight was obvious. The first person to succumb
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Another study takes a step back from focussing on cognitive biases and describes a framework for identifying "Performance Norms", criteria by which reasoning outcomes are judged correct or incorrect, so as to determine when cognitive bias mitigation is required, to guide identification of the biases
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Similarly, expert-level training in such foundational disciplines as mathematics, statistics, probability, logic, etc. can be useful for cognitive bias mitigation when the expected standard of performance reflects such formal analytical methods. However, a study of software engineering professionals
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and others have authored recent articles in business and trade magazines addressing the notion of cognitive bias mitigation in a limited form. These contributions assert that cognitive bias mitigation is necessary and offer general suggestions for how to achieve it, though the guidance is limited to
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A recent research effort by
Morewedge and colleagues (2015) found evidence for domain-general forms of debiasing. In two longitudinal experiments, debiasing training techniques featuring interactive games that elicited six cognitive biases (anchoring, bias blind spot, confirmation bias, fundamental
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Intensive situational training is capable of providing individuals with what appears to be cognitive bias mitigation in decision making, but amounts to a fixed strategy of selecting the single best response to recognized situations regardless of the 'noise' in the environment. Studies and anecdotes
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and others. One line of
Gigerenzer's work led to the "Fast and Frugal" framing of the human reasoning mechanism, which focused on the primacy of 'recognition' in decision making, backed up by tie-resolving heuristics operating in a low cognitive resource environment. In a series of objective tests,
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using formal analytical methods. One contribution to a theory and practice of cognitive bias mitigation from this approach is that it addresses mitigation without explicitly targeting individual cognitive biases and focuses on the reasoning mechanism itself to avoid cognitive biases manifestation.
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do, given the goal of maximizing expected value/utility; in this approach there is no explicit representation in practitioners' models of unconscious factors such as cognitive biases, i.e. all factors are considered conscious choice parameters for all agents. Practitioners tend to treat deviations
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In principle, such models are capable of modeling decision making that takes account of human needs and motivations within social contexts, and suggest their consideration in a theory and practice of cognitive bias mitigation. Challenges to realizing this potential: accumulating the considerable
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above, suggests that our cognitive heuristics are at their best when operating in a social, political and economic environment most like that of the
Paleolithic/Holocene. If this is true, then one possible means to achieve at least some cognitive bias mitigation is to mimic, as much as possible,
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One major difference between decision theory and game theory is the notion of 'equilibrium', a situation in which all agents agree on a strategy because any deviation from this strategy punishes the deviating agent. Despite analytical proofs of the existence of at least one equilibrium in a wide
478:, the inference being that this part of the human brain is implicated in creating the deviations from rational agent choices noted in emotionally valent economic decision making. Practitioners in this discipline have demonstrated correlations between brain activity in this part of the brain and
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activity, and neuronal activation has been shown to have measurable, consistent effects on decision making. These results must be considered speculative and preliminary, but are nonetheless suggestive of the possibility of real-time identification of brain states associated with cognitive bias
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In the full range of game theory models there are many that do not guarantee the existence of equilibria, i.e. there are conflict situations where there is no set of agents' strategies that all agents agree are in their best interests. However, even when theoretical equilibria exist, i.e. when
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environment at the bottom of a sump within a sampling shed, accessed by a ladder. After the first fatality, three other co-workers, all trained in hazardous operational situations, one after the other lost their lives in exactly the same manner, each apparently discounting the evidence of the
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Coherent, comprehensive theories of cognitive bias mitigation are lacking. This article describes debiasing tools, methods, proposals and other initiatives, in academic and professional disciplines concerned with the efficacy of human reasoning, associated with the concept of cognitive bias
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Anthropologists have provided generally accepted scenarios of how our progenitors lived and what was important in their lives. These scenarios of social, political, and economic organization are not uniform throughout history or geography, but there is a degree of stability throughout the
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and the concept of our reasoning mechanism being segregated (approximately) into 'System 1' and 'System 2'. In this view, System 1 is the 'first line' of cognitive processing of all perceptions, including internally generated 'pseudo-perceptions', which automatically, subconsciously and
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may have had in the global financial crisis beginning in 2007. Their conclusion was that the expertise level of stock analysts and traders made them highly resistant to signals that did not conform to their beliefs in the continuation of the status quo. In the grip of strong
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Caliki, G., Bener, A., Arsian, B. (2010). "An
Analysis of the Effects of Company Culture, Education and Experience on Confirmation Bias Levels of Software Developers and Testers." ADM/IEEE 32nd International Conference on Software Engineering – ICSE 2010 Volume 2:
273:), the failure to reset one's expectations based on one's current situation. For example, refusing to pay again to purchase a replacement for a lost ticket to a desired entertainment, or, refusing to sell a sizable long stock position in a rapidly falling market.
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was an early inspiration for this discipline, and has been further developed by its practitioners. It is one of the earliest economic theories that explicitly acknowledge the notion of cognitive bias, though the model itself accounts for only a few, including
297:, the tendency to assess one's previous decisions as more effective than they were. For example, 'recalling' one's prediction that Vancouver would lose the 2011 Stanley Cup, or, 'remembering' to have identified the proximate cause of the 2007 Great Recession.
289:, the tendency to attribute unverified capabilities in a person based on an observed capability. For example, believing an Oscar-winning actor's assertion regarding the harvest of Atlantic seals, or, assuming that a tall, handsome man is intelligent and kind.
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Stephenson, Arthur G.; LaPiana, Lia S.; Mulville, Daniel R.; Rutledge, Peter J.; Bauer, Frank H.; Folta, David; Dukeman, Greg A.; Sackheim, Robert et al (1999-11-10). "Mars
Climate Orbiter Mishap Investigation Board Phase I Report." National Air and Space
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from what a rational agent would do as 'errors of irrationality', with the implication that cognitive bias mitigation can only be achieved by decision makers becoming more like rational agents, though no explicit measures for achieving this are proffered.
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near-instantaneously produces emotionally valenced judgments of their probable effect on the individual's well-being. By contrast, System 2 is responsible for 'executive control', taking System 1's judgments as advisories, making future predictions, via
343:, is explicitly focused on human reasoning, judgment, choice and decision making, primarily in 'one-shot games' between two agents with or without perfect information. The theoretical underpinning of decision theory assumes that all decision makers are
245:, the tendency to seek out only that information that supports one's preconceptions, and to discount that which does not. For example, hearing only one side of a political debate, or, failing to accept the evidence that one's job has become redundant.
313:, the tendency to do or believe what others do or believe. For example, voting for a political candidate because your father unfailingly voted for that candidate's party, or, not objecting to a bully's harassment because the rest of your peers don't.
117:, a Nobel Laureate in Economics, reports in a peer-reviewed study that highly experienced financial managers performed 'no better than chance', largely due to similar factors as reported in the study above, which he termed the "illusion of skill".
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Wright J. R., Leyton-Brown, K., Behavioral Game-Theoretic Models: A Bayesian
Framework For Parameter Analysis, to appear in Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2012), (8 pages),
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Kahneman, D. (2000). "Experienced
Utility and Objective Happiness: A Moment-Based Approach." Chapter 37 in: D. Kahneman and A. Tversky (Eds.) "Choices, Values and Frames." New York: Cambridge University Press and the Russell Sage Foundation,
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standard for decision making versus one grounded in human social needs and motivations. The debate also contrasts the methods used to analyze and predict human decision making, i.e. formal analysis emphasizing intellectual capacities versus
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This discipline, though not focused on improving human reasoning outcomes as an end goal, is one in which the need for such improvement has been explicitly recognized, though the term "cognitive bias mitigation" is not universally used.
78:. This study concluded that several cognitive biases were 'in play' on the mountain, along with other human dynamics. This was a case of highly trained, experienced people breaking their own rules, apparently under the influence of the
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or their mitigation, in others on unstated but self-evident applicability. This characterization is organized along lines reflecting historical segmentation of disciplines, though in practice there is a significant amount of overlap.
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is that they manifest automatically and unconsciously over a wide range of human reasoning, so even those aware of the existence of the phenomenon are unable to detect, let alone mitigate, their manifestation via awareness only.
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that may be 'in play' in a real-world situation, and subsequently to prescribe their mitigations. This study refers to a broad research program with the goal of moving toward a theory and practice of cognitive bias mitigation.
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Roth, E. et al. (1994). An empirical investigation of operator performance in cognitive demanding simulated emergencies. NUREG/CR-6208, Westinghouse
Science and Technology Center. Report prepared for Nuclear Regulatory
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technology. While this notion must remain speculative until further work is done, it appears to be a productive basis for conceiving options for constructing a theory and practice of cognitive bias mitigation.
433:, and perhaps others. No mention is made in formal prospect theory of cognitive bias mitigation, and there is no evidence of peer-reviewed work on cognitive bias mitigation in other areas of this discipline.
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would do as evidence of important, but as yet not understood, decision-making variables, and have as yet no explicit or implicit contributions to make to a theory and practice of cognitive bias mitigation.
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Fiedler, K. & HĂĽtter, M. (2014). The limits of automaticity. J. Sherman, B. Gawronski, & Y. Trope (Eds.), Dual
Processes in Social Psychology (pp. 497-513). New York: Guilford Publications, Inc.
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Conroy, P., Kruchten, P. (2012). "Performance Norms: An Approach to Reducing Rework in Software Development", to appear in IEEE Xplore re 2012 Canadian Conference on Electrical and Computing Engineering.
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Broseta, B., Costa-Gomes, M., Crawford, V. (2000). "Cognition and Behavior in Normal-Form Games: An Experimental Study." Department of Economics, University of California at San Diego, Permalink:
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Garcia-Marques, L.; Ferreira, M. B. (2011). "Friends and foes of theory construction in psychological science: Vague dichotomies, unified theories of cognition, and the new experimentalism".
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One study explicitly focused on cognitive bias as a potential contributor to a disaster-level event; this study examined the causes of the loss of several members of two expedition teams on
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This discipline explicitly challenges the prevalent view that humans are rational agents maximizing expected value/utility, using formal analytical methods to do so. Practitioners such as
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Haselton, M. G.; Bryant, G. A.; Wilke, A.; Frederick, D. A.; Galperin, A.; Frankenhuis, W. E.; Moore, T. (2009). "Adaptive Rationality: An Evolutionary Perspective on Cognitive Bias".
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offers empirical support for the concept of segregating the human reasoning mechanism into System 1 and System 2, as described above, based on brain activity imaging experiments using
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of their choices, and that to accomplish this they utilize formal analytical methods such as mathematics, probability, statistics, and logic under cognitive resource constraints.
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described the systemic cause of this mishap as an organizational failure, with the specific, proximate cause being unchecked assumptions across mission teams regarding the mix of
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Roberto, M. A. (2002). "Lessons from Everest: The Interaction of Cognitive Bias, Psychological, Safety and System Complexity." California Management Review (2002) 45(1): 136–158.
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Weinstein, N. D. (1980). "Unrealistic Optimism About Future Life Events". Department of Human Ecology and Social Sciences, Cook College, Rutgers, The State University".
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models, where weights govern the contribution of signals to each connection, allow very small models to perform rather complex decision-making tasks at high fidelity.
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can also produce negative outcomes in our everyday lives, though rarely as serious as in the examples above. An illustrative selection, recounted in multiple studies:
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previous victims' fate. The power of confirmation bias alone would be sufficient to explain why this happened, but other cognitive biases probably manifested as well.
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Other initiatives aimed directly at a theory and practice of cognitive bias mitigation may exist within other disciplines under different labels than employed here.
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Camerer, C. F., Ho T.-H., Chong, J.-K. (2002). "A Cognitive Hierarchy Theory of One-Shot Games and Experimental Analysis." Forth, Quarterly Journal of Economics."
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https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Mandy_Huetter/publication/308789747_The_limits_of_automaticity/links/58ad4fd24585155ae77aefac/The-limits-of-automaticity.pdf
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Wilson, J.R. (1993). SHEAN (Simplified Human Error Analysis code) and automated THERP. United States Department of Energy Technical Report Number WINCO–11908.
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Changeux, J.-P. P., A. Damasio, et al., Eds. (2007). Neurobiology of Human Values (Research and Perspectives in Neurosciences). Heidelberg, Germany, Springer.
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Wiegmann, D. & Shappell, S. (2003). A human error approach to aviation accident analysis: The human factors analysis and classification system.. Ashgate.
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Paleolithic/Holocene social, political and economic scenarios when one is performing a reasoning task that could attract negative cognitive bias effects.
406:, explicitly consider the effects of social, cognitive and emotional factors on individuals' economic decisions. These disciplines combine insights from
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1077:"The Illogicality of Stock-Brokers: Psychological Experiments on the Effects of Prior Knowledge and Belief Biases on Logical Reasoning in Stock Trading"
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Haselton, M. G., D. Nettie, et al. (2005). "The Evolution of Cognitive Bias." Handbook of Evolutionary Psychology. D. M. Buss. Hoboken, Wiley: 724–746.
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A long-standing debate regarding human decision making bears on the development of a theory and practice of bias mitigation. This debate contrasts the
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Haselton, M. G., D. Nettie, et al. (2005). The Evolution of Cognitive Bias. Handbook of Evolutionary Psychology. D. M. Buss. Hoboken, Wiley: 724–746.
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593:, next, and for empirical and theoretical arguments against, see ) and thus may contribute to a theory and practice of cognitive bias mitigation.
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Shermer, M. (2010). A review of Paul Thagard's "The Brain and the Meaning of Life". Skeptic Magazine. Altadena, CA, Skeptics Society. 16: 60–61.
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by showing subjects other subjects' outputs from a reasoning task, with the result that their subsequent decision-making was somewhat debiased.
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The Common Neural Basis of Autobiographical Memory, Prospection, Navigation, Theory of Mind and the Default Mode: A Quantitative Meta-Analysis.
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Laboratory experiments in which cognitive bias mitigation is an explicit goal are rare. One 1980 study explored the notion of reducing the
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Several streams of investigation in this discipline are noteworthy for their possible relevance to a theory of cognitive bias mitigation.
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Gigerenzer, G. (2006). "Bounded and Rational." Contemporary Debates in Cognitive Science. R. J. Stainton, Blackwell Publishing: 115–133.
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Mullainathan, Sendhil, and Richard Thaler. "Behavioral Economics." MIT Department of Economics Working Paper 00-27. (September 2000).
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Kahneman, D. "Maps of Bounded Rationality: Psychology for Behavioral Economics." American Economic Review (December 2003): 1449–1475.
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Kuhn, S. L.; Stiner, M. C. (2006). "What's a Mother To Do? The Division of Labor among Neanderthals and Modern Humans in Eurasia".
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A number of paradigms, methods and tools for improving human performance reliability have been developed within the discipline of
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Other disaster-level examples of negative outcomes resulting from human error, possibly including multiple cognitive biases: the
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Gilovich, T. (1991). How We Know What Isn't So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life. New York, NY, The Free Press.
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Beynon-Davies, P., "Information systems `failure': case of the LASCAD project", European Journal of Information Systems, 1995.
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is a discipline made possible by advances in brain activity imaging technologies. This discipline merges some of the ideas in
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Sutton, R. S., Barto, A. G. (1998). MIT CogNet Ebook Collection; MITCogNet 1998, Adaptive Computation and Machine Learning,
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manifestation, and the possibility of purposeful interventions at the neuronal level to achieve cognitive bias mitigation.
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There are few studies explicitly linking cognitive biases to real-world incidents with highly negative outcomes. Examples:
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Kahneman, D., Lovallo, D., Sibony, O. (2011). "Before You Make That Big Decision." Harvard Business Review, June, 2011.
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Chudek, M.; Henrich, J. (2011). "Culture–Gene Coevolution, Norm-Psychology and the Emergence of Human Prosociality".
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Gertman, D., Blackman, H., Marble, J., Byers, J. and Smith, C. (2005). The SPAR-H human reliability analysis method.
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33:– unconscious, automatic influences on human judgment and decision making that reliably produce reasoning errors.
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British Columbia Ministry of Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources: Sullivan Mine Accident Report, May 17, 2006.
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Henrich; et al. (2010). "Markets, Religion, Community Size, and the Evolution of Fairness and Punishment".
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Epley, N.; Gilovich, T. (2006). "The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic: Why the Adjustments are Insufficient".
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Confer; et al. (2010). "Evolutionary Psychology: Controversies, Questions, Prospects, and Limitations".
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Morewedge, C. K.; Yoon, H.; Scopelliti, I.; Symborski, C. W.; Korris, J. H.; Kassam, K. S. (13 August 2015).
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Gigerenzer, G.; Goldstein, D. G. (1996). "Reasoning the Fast and Frugal Way: Models of Bounded Rationality".
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Gladwell, M. (2006). Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking. New York, NY, Little, Brown and Company.
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used in different systems on the craft. A host of cognitive biases can be imagined in this situation:
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is one that may inform significant advances in cognitive bias mitigation. Originally conceived of by
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was central to highly negative potential or actual real-world outcomes, in which manifestation of
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149:, which on September 23, 1999 "encountered Mars at an improperly low altitude" and was lost.
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practice of cognitive bias mitigation. In most cases this is based on explicit reference to
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Hammond, J. S.; Keeney, R. L.; et al. (2006). "The Hidden Traps in Decision Making".
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1652:
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Kahneman, D.; Tversky, A. (1979). "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk".
677:. The multilayer, cross-connected signal collection and propagation structure typical of
1398:
1346:
Binmore, K. (2007). "A Very Short Introduction to Game Theory." Oxford University Press.
1296:
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948:
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emphasizing emotional states. This article identifies elements relevant to this debate.
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Hollnagel, E. (1998). Cognitive reliability and error analysis method: CREAM. Elsevier.
2233:
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1615:
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Loewenstein, George; Rick, Scott; Cohen, Jonathan D. (January 2008). "Neuroeconomics".
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2500:
2180:
Gabow, S. L. (1977). "Population Structure and the Rate of Hominid Brain Evolution".
1869:
1377:
Myerson, R. B. (1991). "Game Theory: Analysis of Conflict." Harvard University Press.
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543:
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178:
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2009:
1425:
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Nozick, R. (1993). The Nature of Rationality. Ewing, NJ, Princeton University Press.
860:
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2753:
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1852:
1826:"Debiasing Decisions: Improved Decision Making With a Single Training Intervention"
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as opposed to optimizing, this idea found experimental expression in the work of
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1190:
Mann, C. C. (2002). "Why Software is So Bad." Technology Review, MIT, July 2002.
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A concept rooted in considerations of the actual machinery of human reasoning,
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in an attempt to better understand the neural basis for human decision making.
441:
only a few cognitive biases and is not self-evidently generalizable to others.
3026:
3021:
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2083:
https://cloudfront.escholarship.org/dist/prd/content/qt76d4d629/qt76d4d629.pdf
2040:
1147:
ID=19830723-0 (1983). "Gimli Glider Accident Report." Aviation Safety Network
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407:
2207:
Hamilton, M. J.; Milne, B. T.; Walker, R.S.; Burger, O.; Brown, J.H. (2007).
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is consistently involved in resolving economic decision situations that have
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Normative, or prescriptive, decision theory concerns itself with what people
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models based on this approach outperformed models based on rational agents
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Positive, or descriptive, decision theory concerns itself with what people
57:
A large body of evidence has established that a defining characteristic of
1743:
1221:
1204:
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Lerher, J. (2009). How We Decide. New York, NY, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.
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1698:
623:
559:
2074:
Evans, J. B. T. (2006). Dual system theories of cognition: Some issues.
1685:
Simon, H. A. (1991). "Bounded Rationality and Organizational Learning".
669:, an approach inspired by the imagined structure and function of actual
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787:
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One technique particularly applicable to cognitive bias mitigation is
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mitigation; most address mitigation tacitly rather than explicitly.
2416:
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1606:
662:, has been used to investigate human learning and decision making.
502:, expanded upon by others, and applied in real-life situations, is
169:, overconfidence effect, availability bias, and even the meta-bias
2421:
792:
2472:
1868:
Cosmides, L., Tooby, J. "Evolutionary Psychology: A Primer." at
605:
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150:
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There are numerous investigations of incidents determining that
2445:
2291:
Marlowe, F. W. (2005). "Hunter-Gatherers and Human Evolution".
2079:
Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of Cognitive Science Society'
1641:
Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience, (Epub ahead of print)(2010).
1138:
Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow, Doubleday Canada.
2431:
697:
One study identifies specific steps to counter the effects of
1148:
2406:
1252:: How to Get Things Right. New York, NY, Metropolitan Books.
1075:
Knauff, M.; Budeck, C.; Wolf, A. G.; Hamburger, K. (2010).
29:
is the prevention and reduction of the negative effects of
2209:"The complex Structure of Hunter–Gatherer Social Networks"
2441:
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in certain phases of the software engineering lifecycle.
97:
study, German researchers examined the role that certain
339:, a discipline with its roots grounded in neo-classical
1833:
Policy Insights from the Behavioral and Brain Sciences
16:
Reduction of the negative effects of cognitive biases
2293:
Evolutionary Anthropology: Issues, News, and Reviews
1399:"What Can Economists Learn from Happiness Research?"
1297:"What Can Economists Learn from Happiness Research?"
398:
Unlike neo-classical economics and decision theory,
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passenger aircraft, the ineffective response to the
3102:
2967:
2842:
2479:
494:One approach to mitigation originally suggested by
1870:http://www.psych.ucsb.edu/research/cep/primer.html
1637:Spreng, R. N., Mar, R. A., Kim, A. S. N. (2008).
626:in particular. This, along with the findings in
234:approximately 250 cognitive biases known to date
106:reinforced by the overconfidence effect and the
1264:"Utility Maximization and Experienced Utility"
2457:
76:Mount Everest on two consecutive days in 1996
8:
1789:Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
1366:http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/0fp8278k
667:neural network learning and choice selection
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517:in the 1960s and leading to the concept of
378:, a discipline with roots in economics and
3120:Heuristics in judgment and decision-making
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2437:Max Planck Institute for Human Development
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2417:Institute of Ergonomics and Human Factors
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1653:"Multiple Selves in Intertemporal Choice"
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580:There is an emerging convergence between
1589:Padoa-Schioppa, C.; Assad, J.A. (2007).
1205:"Cognitive Bias in Software Engineering"
220:nuclear reactor fire, the downing of an
19:For broader coverage of this topic, see
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2422:International Machine Learning Society
2402:Center for the Study of Neuroeconomics
1525:10.1146/annurev.psych.59.103006.093710
1198:
1196:
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1184:
2095:Perspectives on Psychological Science
7:
129:is a plausible component. Examples:
66:Real-world effects of cognitive bias
2412:Journal of Evolutionary Psychology
2213:Proceedings of the Royal Society B
212:nuclear meltdown, the loss of the
14:
2023:Mercier, H.; Sperber, D. (2011).
1651:Jamison, J.; Wegener, J. (2010).
1262:Kahneman, D.; Thaler, R. (2006).
1203:Stacy, W.; MacMillan, J. (1995).
631:
590:
1268:Journal of Economic Perspectives
845:10.1111/j.1467-9280.2006.01704.x
737:
723:
347:trying to maximize the economic
184:failed to accurately discern an
1548:Current Opinion in Neurobiology
2432:Cognitive Neuroscience Society
1660:Journal of Economic Psychology
1406:Journal of Economic Literature
1397:Frey, B.; Stutzer, A. (2002).
1304:Journal of Economic Literature
1295:Frey, B.; Stutzer, A. (2002).
1:
2194:10.1016/s0047-2484(77)80136-x
2029:Behavioral and Brain Sciences
645:human reliability engineering
639:Human reliability engineering
470:experiments suggest that the
427:anchoring and adjustment bias
228:weather event, and many more.
159:United States customary units
2427:Temporal Difference Learning
2168:Myths About Hunter-Gatherers
1982:Trends in Cognitive Sciences
1102:10.1371/journal.pone.0013483
278:Representativeness heuristic
2986:DĂ©formation professionnelle
1736:10.1037/0033-295x.103.4.650
1595:Nature Reviews Neuroscience
1513:Annual Review of Psychology
753:Cognitive bias modification
504:reference class forecasting
3176:
2980:Basking in reflected glory
2407:Fast and Frugal Heuristics
2182:Journal of Human Evolution
1994:10.1016/j.tics.2011.03.003
1913:10.1521/soco.2009.27.5.733
1811:10.1037/0022-3514.39.5.806
1672:10.1016/j.joep.2010.03.004
1560:10.1016/j.conb.2009.09.012
1418:10.1257/002205102320161320
1316:10.1257/002205102320161320
1281:10.1257/089533006776526076
1149:http://aviation-safety.net
1037:10.1037/0003-066x.54.3.182
671:biological neural networks
18:
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3110:Cognitive bias mitigation
2041:10.1017/s0140525x10000968
1209:Communications of the ACM
27:Cognitive bias mitigation
2694:Illusion of transparency
2107:10.1177/1745691611400239
1845:10.1177/2372732215600886
528:maximizing their utility
456:, behavioral economics,
214:Space Shuttle Challenger
195:London Ambulance Service
1250:The Checklist Manifesto
967:10.1126/science.1182238
903:Harvard Business Review
758:Cognitive vulnerability
660:artificial intelligence
628:Evolutionary psychology
582:evolutionary psychology
554:Evolutionary psychology
402:and the related field,
42:rational economic agent
2225:10.1098/rspb.2007.0564
2025:"Argumentative Theory"
573:describe a theory for
454:experimental economics
349:expected value/utility
302:Availability heuristic
88:availability heuristic
3062:Arab–Israeli conflict
2789:Social influence bias
2734:Out-group homogeneity
2166:Ember, C. R. (1978).
1937:American Psychologist
1222:10.1145/203241.203256
1025:American Psychologist
833:Psychological Science
80:overconfidence effect
2704:Mere-exposure effect
2634:Extrinsic incentives
2580:Selective perception
2258:Current Anthropology
1714:Psychological Review
1699:10.1287/orsc.2.1.125
1687:Organization Science
1248:Gawande, A. (2010).
689:Software engineering
487:Cognitive psychology
400:behavioral economics
394:Behavioral economics
146:Mars Climate Orbiter
2929:Social desirability
2824:von Restorff effect
2699:Mean world syndrome
2674:Hostile attribution
1093:2010PLoSO...513483K
949:2010Sci...327.1480H
943:(5972): 1480–1484.
798:Unstated assumption
565:In a similar vein,
511:bounded rationality
2844:Statistical biases
2622:Curse of knowledge
2305:10.1002/evan.20046
2219:(274): 2195–2203.
1875:2009-02-28 at the
778:Freedom of thought
410:and neo-classical
404:behavioral finance
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2784:Social comparison
2565:Choice-supportive
2377:978-0-262-19398-6
768:Critical thinking
745:Psychology portal
731:Philosophy portal
699:confirmation bias
575:confirmation bias
476:emotional valence
458:cognitive science
414:to achieve this.
266:Gambler's fallacy
242:Confirmation bias
226:Hurricane Katrina
210:Three Mile Island
163:confirmation bias
104:confirmation bias
84:sunk cost fallacy
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3160:Cognitive biases
2944:Systematic error
2899:Omitted-variable
2814:Trait ascription
2654:Frog pond effect
2482:Cognitive biases
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656:Machine learning
651:Machine learning
515:Herbert A. Simon
431:endowment effect
325:cognitive biases
310:Bandwagon effect
144:The Loss of the
127:cognitive biases
99:cognitive biases
59:cognitive biases
31:cognitive biases
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523:Gerd Gigerenzer
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438:Daniel Kahneman
418:Prospect theory
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380:system dynamics
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345:rational agents
337:Decision theory
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332:Decision theory
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171:bias blind spot
108:status quo bias
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3079:Political bias
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1067:
1058:
1031:(3): 182–203.
1012:
1000:
988:
924:
912:
890:
878:
866:
839:(4): 311–318.
820:
807:
805:
802:
801:
800:
795:
790:
785:
780:
775:
770:
765:
760:
755:
749:
748:
734:
718:
715:
710:
707:
690:
687:
679:neural network
658:, a branch of
652:
649:
640:
637:
614:
611:
598:
595:
555:
552:
488:
485:
462:social science
450:Neuroeconomics
446:
445:Neuroeconomics
443:
395:
392:
372:
369:
333:
330:
319:
316:
315:
314:
306:
298:
294:Hindsight bias
290:
282:
274:
271:sunk cost bias
262:
258:Anchoring bias
254:
250:Framing effect
246:
230:
229:
206:
200:
190:
174:
167:hindsight bias
141:
119:
118:
111:
91:
67:
64:
54:
51:
15:
13:
10:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
3172:
3161:
3158:
3157:
3155:
3140:
3137:
3135:
3131:
3130:
3127:
3121:
3118:
3116:
3113:
3111:
3108:
3107:
3105:
3101:
3095:
3092:
3090:
3087:
3085:
3082:
3080:
3077:
3075:
3072:
3068:
3065:
3063:
3060:
3058:
3057:United States
3055:
3053:
3050:
3048:
3045:
3043:
3040:
3038:
3035:
3033:
3032:False balance
3030:
3029:
3028:
3025:
3023:
3020:
3018:
3015:
3013:
3010:
3008:
3005:
3003:
3000:
2998:
2995:
2993:
2990:
2988:
2987:
2983:
2981:
2978:
2976:
2973:
2972:
2970:
2966:
2960:
2957:
2955:
2952:
2950:
2947:
2945:
2942:
2940:
2937:
2935:
2932:
2930:
2927:
2925:
2922:
2920:
2917:
2915:
2912:
2910:
2907:
2905:
2904:Participation
2902:
2900:
2897:
2895:
2892:
2890:
2887:
2885:
2882:
2880:
2877:
2873:
2872:Psychological
2870:
2869:
2868:
2865:
2863:
2860:
2858:
2855:
2853:
2850:
2849:
2847:
2845:
2841:
2835:
2832:
2830:
2827:
2825:
2822:
2820:
2817:
2815:
2812:
2810:
2807:
2805:
2802:
2800:
2797:
2795:
2792:
2790:
2787:
2785:
2782:
2780:
2777:
2775:
2772:
2770:
2767:
2765:
2762:
2760:
2757:
2755:
2752:
2750:
2747:
2745:
2742:
2740:
2737:
2735:
2732:
2730:
2727:
2725:
2722:
2720:
2717:
2715:
2712:
2710:
2707:
2705:
2702:
2700:
2697:
2695:
2692:
2690:
2687:
2685:
2682:
2680:
2677:
2675:
2672:
2670:
2667:
2665:
2662:
2660:
2657:
2655:
2652:
2650:
2647:
2645:
2642:
2640:
2639:Fading affect
2637:
2635:
2632:
2630:
2627:
2623:
2620:
2619:
2618:
2615:
2613:
2610:
2608:
2605:
2603:
2600:
2598:
2595:
2593:
2590:
2588:
2585:
2581:
2578:
2577:
2576:
2573:
2571:
2568:
2566:
2563:
2561:
2558:
2556:
2553:
2549:
2546:
2545:
2544:
2541:
2539:
2536:
2534:
2531:
2527:
2524:
2522:
2519:
2518:
2517:
2514:
2512:
2509:
2507:
2504:
2502:
2499:
2497:
2494:
2492:
2489:
2488:
2486:
2483:
2478:
2474:
2467:
2462:
2460:
2455:
2453:
2448:
2447:
2444:
2438:
2435:
2433:
2430:
2428:
2425:
2423:
2420:
2418:
2415:
2413:
2410:
2408:
2405:
2403:
2400:
2399:
2395:
2385:
2382:
2378:
2374:
2368:
2365:
2359:
2356:
2350:
2347:
2340:
2337:
2331:
2328:
2322:
2319:
2314:
2310:
2306:
2302:
2298:
2294:
2287:
2284:
2279:
2275:
2271:
2267:
2263:
2259:
2252:
2249:
2244:
2240:
2235:
2230:
2226:
2222:
2218:
2214:
2210:
2203:
2200:
2195:
2191:
2187:
2183:
2176:
2173:
2169:
2163:
2160:
2154:
2151:
2145:
2142:
2139:
2132:
2129:
2124:
2120:
2116:
2112:
2108:
2104:
2100:
2096:
2089:
2086:
2084:
2080:
2077:
2076:
2069:
2068:
2063:
2058:
2054:
2050:
2046:
2042:
2038:
2034:
2030:
2026:
2019:
2016:
2011:
2007:
2003:
1999:
1995:
1991:
1987:
1983:
1976:
1973:
1968:
1964:
1960:
1956:
1951:
1946:
1942:
1938:
1931:
1928:
1922:
1919:
1914:
1910:
1905:
1900:
1896:
1892:
1885:
1882:
1878:
1874:
1871:
1865:
1863:
1859:
1854:
1850:
1846:
1842:
1838:
1834:
1827:
1820:
1817:
1812:
1808:
1803:
1798:
1794:
1790:
1783:
1780:
1774:
1772:
1768:
1762:
1759:
1753:
1750:
1745:
1741:
1737:
1733:
1728:
1723:
1719:
1715:
1708:
1705:
1700:
1696:
1692:
1688:
1681:
1678:
1673:
1669:
1665:
1661:
1654:
1647:
1644:
1640:
1634:
1631:
1626:
1622:
1617:
1612:
1608:
1604:
1601:(1): 95–102.
1600:
1596:
1592:
1585:
1582:
1577:
1573:
1569:
1565:
1561:
1557:
1553:
1549:
1542:
1539:
1534:
1530:
1526:
1522:
1518:
1514:
1507:
1504:
1498:
1495:
1490:
1486:
1482:
1478:
1473:
1468:
1464:
1460:
1453:
1450:
1444:
1441:
1435:
1432:
1427:
1423:
1419:
1415:
1412:(2): 402–35.
1411:
1407:
1400:
1393:
1390:
1383:
1380:
1374:
1371:
1367:
1361:
1358:
1352:
1349:
1343:
1340:
1333:
1330:
1325:
1321:
1317:
1313:
1310:(2): 402–35.
1309:
1305:
1298:
1291:
1288:
1282:
1277:
1273:
1269:
1265:
1258:
1255:
1251:
1245:
1243:
1241:
1237:
1232:
1228:
1223:
1218:
1214:
1210:
1206:
1199:
1197:
1193:
1187:
1185:
1181:
1175:
1172:
1166:
1163:
1156:
1153:
1150:
1144:
1141:
1135:
1133:
1131:
1127:
1122:
1118:
1113:
1108:
1103:
1098:
1094:
1090:
1086:
1082:
1078:
1071:
1068:
1062:
1059:
1054:
1050:
1046:
1042:
1038:
1034:
1030:
1026:
1019:
1017:
1013:
1007:
1005:
1001:
995:
993:
989:
984:
980:
976:
972:
968:
964:
959:
954:
950:
946:
942:
938:
931:
929:
925:
919:
917:
913:
909:(1): 118–126.
908:
904:
897:
895:
891:
885:
883:
879:
873:
871:
867:
862:
858:
854:
850:
846:
842:
838:
834:
827:
825:
821:
815:
813:
809:
803:
799:
796:
794:
791:
789:
786:
784:
781:
779:
776:
774:
771:
769:
766:
764:
761:
759:
756:
754:
751:
750:
746:
735:
732:
721:
716:
714:
708:
706:
702:
700:
695:
688:
686:
682:
680:
676:
672:
668:
663:
661:
657:
650:
648:
646:
638:
636:
633:
629:
625:
622:era, and the
621:
612:
610:
607:
603:
596:
594:
592:
588:
583:
578:
576:
572:
568:
563:
561:
553:
551:
547:
545:
544:optimism bias
540:
536:
532:
529:
524:
520:
516:
512:
507:
505:
501:
497:
492:
486:
484:
481:
477:
473:
472:limbic system
469:
465:
463:
459:
455:
451:
444:
442:
439:
434:
432:
428:
424:
423:loss aversion
419:
415:
413:
409:
405:
401:
393:
391:
387:
383:
381:
377:
370:
368:
365:
360:
357:
352:
350:
346:
342:
338:
331:
329:
326:
317:
312:
311:
307:
304:
303:
299:
296:
295:
291:
288:
287:
283:
280:
279:
275:
272:
268:
267:
263:
260:
259:
255:
252:
251:
247:
244:
243:
239:
238:
237:
235:
227:
223:
219:
215:
211:
207:
204:
201:
198:
196:
191:
187:
182:
180:
179:Sullivan Mine
175:
172:
168:
164:
160:
156:
152:
148:
147:
142:
139:
137:
132:
131:
130:
128:
124:
116:
112:
109:
105:
100:
96:
92:
89:
85:
81:
77:
73:
72:
71:
65:
63:
60:
52:
50:
48:
43:
38:
34:
32:
28:
22:
3109:
3017:In education
2984:
2968:Other biases
2954:Verification
2939:Survivorship
2889:Non-response
2862:Healthy user
2804:Substitution
2779:Self-serving
2575:Confirmation
2543:Availability
2491:Acquiescence
2384:
2367:
2358:
2349:
2339:
2330:
2321:
2299:(2): 54–67.
2296:
2292:
2286:
2261:
2257:
2251:
2216:
2212:
2202:
2185:
2181:
2175:
2167:
2162:
2153:
2144:
2131:
2098:
2094:
2088:
2078:
2072:
2071:
2067:
2066:
2035:(2): 57–74.
2032:
2028:
2018:
1985:
1981:
1975:
1940:
1936:
1930:
1921:
1894:
1890:
1884:
1836:
1832:
1819:
1792:
1788:
1782:
1761:
1752:
1717:
1713:
1707:
1690:
1686:
1680:
1663:
1659:
1646:
1638:
1633:
1598:
1594:
1584:
1551:
1547:
1541:
1516:
1512:
1506:
1497:
1462:
1459:Econometrica
1458:
1452:
1443:
1434:
1409:
1405:
1392:
1382:
1373:
1360:
1351:
1342:
1332:
1307:
1303:
1290:
1271:
1267:
1257:
1215:(6): 57–63.
1212:
1208:
1174:
1165:
1155:
1143:
1084:
1080:
1070:
1061:
1028:
1024:
940:
936:
906:
902:
836:
832:
712:
703:
696:
692:
683:
664:
654:
642:
632:Neuroscience
616:
613:Anthropology
602:Neuroscience
600:
597:Neuroscience
591:Neuroscience
579:
564:
557:
548:
541:
537:
533:
508:
500:Amos Tversky
493:
490:
466:
448:
435:
416:
397:
388:
384:
374:
363:
361:
355:
353:
335:
321:
308:
300:
292:
284:
276:
264:
256:
248:
240:
232:Each of the
231:
203:Atul Gawande
192:
176:
143:
136:Gimli Glider
133:
120:
94:
69:
56:
39:
35:
26:
25:
3084:Publication
3037:Vietnam War
2884:Length time
2867:Information
2809:Time-saving
2669:Horn effect
2659:Halo effect
2607:Distinction
2516:Attribution
2511:Attentional
2344:Commission.
783:Freethought
675:human brain
620:Paleolithic
587:prospection
519:satisficing
480:prospection
376:Game theory
371:Game theory
286:Halo effect
123:human error
113:Similarly,
3047:South Asia
3022:Liking gap
2834:In animals
2799:Status quo
2714:Negativity
2617:Egocentric
2592:Congruence
2570:Commitment
2560:Blind spot
2548:Mean world
2538:Automation
2389:pp187-190.
2081:, 28(28).
804:References
408:psychology
138:' Incident
95:MarketBeat
93:In a 2010
47:heuristics
3115:Debiasing
3094:White hat
3089:Reporting
3002:Inductive
2919:Selection
2879:Lead time
2852:Estimator
2829:Zero-risk
2794:Spotlight
2774:Restraint
2764:Proximity
2749:Precision
2709:Narrative
2664:Hindsight
2649:Frequency
2629:Emotional
2602:Declinism
2533:Authority
2506:Anchoring
2496:Ambiguity
1945:CiteSeerX
1899:CiteSeerX
1797:CiteSeerX
1722:CiteSeerX
1467:CiteSeerX
953:CiteSeerX
773:Debiasing
436:However,
412:economics
341:economics
218:Chernobyl
21:Debiasing
3154:Category
3012:Inherent
2975:Academic
2949:Systemic
2934:Spectrum
2914:Sampling
2894:Observer
2857:Forecast
2769:Response
2729:Optimism
2724:Omission
2719:Normalcy
2689:In-group
2684:Implicit
2597:Cultural
2501:Affinity
2313:53489209
2278:42981328
2243:17609186
2115:26162138
2049:21447233
2010:16710885
2002:21482176
1967:20141266
1873:Archived
1625:18066060
1568:19896360
1533:17883335
1426:13967611
1324:13967611
1121:20976157
1081:PLOS ONE
1053:14882268
1045:10199218
975:20299588
861:10279390
853:16623688
717:See also
624:Holocene
560:Cosmides
364:actually
222:Iran Air
197:Failures
181:Incident
115:Kahneman
3134:General
3132:Lists:
3067:Ukraine
2992:Funding
2754:Present
2739:Outcome
2644:Framing
2234:2706200
2057:5669039
1853:4848978
1744:8888650
1616:2646102
1576:2281817
1489:1914185
1231:1505473
1112:2956684
1089:Bibcode
983:4803905
945:Bibcode
937:Science
788:Inquiry
673:in the
571:Sperber
567:Mercier
318:To date
53:Context
3139:Memory
3052:Sweden
3042:Norway
2909:Recall
2679:Impact
2555:Belief
2473:Biases
2375:
2311:
2276:
2241:
2231:
2123:118743
2121:
2113:
2055:
2047:
2008:
2000:
1965:
1947:
1901:
1851:
1799:
1742:
1724:
1623:
1613:
1574:
1566:
1531:
1487:
1469:
1424:
1322:
1229:
1119:
1109:
1051:
1043:
981:
973:
955:
859:
851:
356:should
216:, the
186:anoxic
155:metric
86:, the
82:, the
3027:Media
2997:FUTON
2309:S2CID
2274:S2CID
2119:S2CID
2053:S2CID
2006:S2CID
1849:S2CID
1829:(PDF)
1656:(PDF)
1572:S2CID
1485:JSTOR
1422:S2CID
1402:(PDF)
1387:2012.
1337:1999.
1320:S2CID
1300:(PDF)
1227:S2CID
1049:S2CID
979:S2CID
857:S2CID
793:Logic
709:Other
269:(aka
134:The '
2373:ISBN
2239:PMID
2217:2007
2111:PMID
2045:PMID
1998:PMID
1963:PMID
1740:PMID
1621:PMID
1564:PMID
1529:PMID
1117:PMID
1041:PMID
971:PMID
849:PMID
630:and
606:fMRI
569:and
498:and
468:fMRI
460:and
193:The
177:The
157:and
151:NASA
3074:Net
2959:Wet
2301:doi
2266:doi
2229:PMC
2221:doi
2190:doi
2103:doi
2037:doi
1990:doi
1955:doi
1909:doi
1841:doi
1807:doi
1732:doi
1718:103
1695:doi
1668:doi
1611:PMC
1603:doi
1556:doi
1521:doi
1477:doi
1414:doi
1312:doi
1276:doi
1217:doi
1107:PMC
1097:doi
1033:doi
963:doi
941:327
841:doi
3156::
2307:.
2297:14
2295:.
2272:.
2262:47
2260:.
2237:.
2227:.
2215:.
2211:.
2184:.
2117:.
2109:.
2097:.
2051:.
2043:.
2033:34
2031:.
2027:.
2004:.
1996:.
1986:15
1984:.
1961:.
1953:.
1941:65
1939:.
1907:.
1895:27
1893:.
1879:."
1861:^
1847:.
1835:.
1831:.
1805:.
1793:39
1791:.
1770:^
1738:.
1730:.
1716:.
1689:.
1664:31
1662:.
1658:.
1619:.
1609:.
1599:11
1597:.
1593:.
1570:.
1562:.
1552:19
1550:.
1527:.
1517:59
1515:.
1483:.
1475:.
1463:47
1461:.
1420:.
1410:40
1408:.
1404:.
1318:.
1308:40
1306:.
1302:.
1272:20
1270:.
1266:.
1239:^
1225:.
1213:38
1211:.
1207:.
1195:^
1183:^
1129:^
1115:.
1105:.
1095:.
1083:.
1079:.
1047:.
1039:.
1029:54
1027:.
1015:^
1003:^
991:^
977:.
969:.
961:.
951:.
939:.
927:^
915:^
907:84
905:.
893:^
881:^
869:^
855:.
847:.
837:17
835:.
823:^
811:^
429:,
425:,
165:,
2465:e
2458:t
2451:v
2379:.
2315:.
2303::
2280:.
2268::
2245:.
2223::
2196:.
2192::
2186:6
2125:.
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