54:, using a test on observable data where the outcome is not yet known. A test outcome that could have and does run contrary to predictions of the hypothesis is taken as a falsification of the hypothesis. A test outcome that could have, but does not run contrary to the hypothesis corroborates the theory. It is then proposed to compare the explanatory value of competing hypotheses by testing how stringently they are corroborated by their predictions.
1609:
281:(1905–1997), this simple view of the scientific method is incomplete; a conjecture can also incorporate probabilities, e.g., the drug is effective about 70% of the time. Tests, in this case, must be repeated to substantiate the conjecture (in particular, the probabilities). In this and other cases, we can quantify a probability for our confidence in the conjecture itself and then apply a
1597:
308:
form of the original implication). 'This is a green tree' is an observation of a non-black thing that is a non-raven and therefore corroborates 'all non-black things are non-ravens'. It appears to follow that the observation 'this is a green tree' is corroborating evidence for the hypothesis 'all
360:
or grounded theory. In the data percolation methodology, the hypothetico-deductive approach is included in a paradigm of pragmatism by which four types of relations between the variables can exist: descriptive, of influence, longitudinal or causal. The variables are classified in two groups,
328:
it is always possible to save a given hypothesis from falsification. This is so because any falsifying observation is embedded in a theoretical background, which can be modified in order to save the hypothesis.
361:
structural and functional, a classification that drives the formulation of hypotheses and the statistical tests to be performed on the data so as to increase the efficiency of the research.
78:. Use your experience: Consider the problem and try to make sense of it. Gather data and look for previous explanations. If this is a new problem to you, then move to step
300:
is a famous example. The hypothesis that 'all ravens are black' would appear to be corroborated by observations of only black ravens. However, 'all ravens are black' is
289:
shows that the probability will never reach exactly 0 or 100% (no absolute certainty in either direction), but it can still get very close to either extreme. See also
770:
1389:
826:
1055:
269:. (This is what Einstein meant when he said, "No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong.")
1226:
740:
644:
553:
p. 291. Calaprice denotes this not as an exact quotation, but as a paraphrase of a translation of A. Einstein's "Induction and
Deduction".
1048:
763:
798:
1409:
1404:
1357:
1038:
717:
695:
672:
550:
468:
1419:
410:
1638:
1589:
756:
1279:
1272:
390:
1106:
1091:
731:
1643:
1633:
1304:
1284:
1192:
1188:
1111:
803:
1309:
949:
934:
923:
900:
415:
146:
1547:
1294:
1289:
1262:
1197:
1151:
1146:
1081:
974:
333:
acknowledged this but maintained that a critical approach respecting methodological rules that avoided such
1502:
1492:
910:
836:
793:
1352:
1347:
1299:
1267:
1257:
1216:
996:
873:
779:
726:
395:
375:
621:
516:, Letter to Pierre Perrault, 'Sur la préface de M. Perrault de son traité del'Origine des fontaines' ,
1332:
1327:
1202:
1086:
991:
964:
846:
96:): When nothing else is yet known, try to state an explanation, to someone else, or to your notebook.
1394:
1076:
969:
944:
929:
858:
705:
442:
437:
432:
325:
320:
Evidence contrary to a hypothesis is itself philosophically problematic. Such evidence is called a
301:
290:
122:): Look for evidence (observations) that conflict with these predictions in order to disprove
1542:
1497:
1384:
1207:
1028:
863:
853:
590:
513:
345:
43:
679:
296:
Qualification of corroborating evidence is sometimes raised as philosophically problematic. The
1601:
1472:
1374:
1231:
1021:
986:
880:
819:
736:
713:
691:
668:
640:
546:
405:
370:
286:
282:
63:
39:
1572:
1527:
1507:
1043:
1033:
1016:
427:
68:
One example of an algorithmic statement of the hypothetico-deductive method is as follows:
1562:
1522:
1444:
1399:
1236:
1141:
1126:
1101:
915:
895:
341:
316:
investigations that do or do not provide a potentially falsifying test of the hypothesis.
1613:
1482:
1342:
981:
890:
321:
305:
260:
141:
51:
1627:
1532:
1467:
1439:
1367:
1096:
1011:
297:
356:
The hypothetico-deductive approach contrasts with other research models such as the
1608:
1577:
1557:
1512:
1487:
1477:
1449:
1379:
1337:
1211:
1165:
1136:
1116:
528:, ed. Keith R. Benson and trans. Robert Ellrich (1997), 163. Quotation selected by
1567:
1552:
1537:
1517:
1434:
1362:
1179:
1169:
1156:
1121:
1071:
1001:
954:
841:
831:
512:"I believe that we do not know anything for certain, but everything probably." —
380:
357:
330:
278:
1454:
1183:
1174:
1161:
905:
868:
400:
119:
93:
47:
1221:
814:
285:, with each experimental result shifting the probability either up or down.
17:
313:
non-falsifying observations as to strong, moderate, or weak corroborations
1241:
959:
748:
939:
447:
385:
574:
1006:
581:. Murzi used the term relative frequency rather than probability.
885:
710:
Theory and
Reality: An introduction to the philosophy of science
752:
545:
Princeton
University Press and Hebrew University of Jerusalem,
128:. It is a fallacy or error in one's reasoning to seek
104:. Deduce predictions from the hypothesis: if you assume
309:
ravens are black'. Attempted resolutions may distinguish:
526:
The Life
Sciences in Eighteenth-Century French Thought
304:
to 'all non-black things are non-ravens' (this is the
564:. A. Einstein; M. Janssen, R. Schulmann, et al., eds.
1427:
1418:
1320:
1250:
1064:
786:
639:, United States: Springer Psychology, p. 126,
324:of the hypothesis. However, under the theory of
764:
155:One possible sequence in this model would be
27:Proposed description of the scientific method
8:
191:is not yet disproven, you may continue with
529:
248:Note that this method can never absolutely
1424:
771:
757:
749:
688:Oxford Dictionary of Scientific Quotations
1390:Relationship between religion and science
637:Creating Models in Psychological Research
337:is conducive to the progress of science.
221:to be false, you will have to go back to
541:As noted by Alice Calaprice (ed. 2005)
518:Oeuvres Complétes de Christiaan Huygens
459:
499:e.g., p. 58, devotes his chapter 5 to
209:, and so forth; but if the outcome of
562:The Berlin Years: Writings, 1918-1921
496:
7:
579:Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy
555:Collected Papers of Albert Einstein
110:is true, what consequences follow?
25:
1410:Sociology of scientific knowledge
1405:Sociology of scientific ignorance
1358:History and philosophy of science
686:Bynum, W.F.; Porter, Roy (2005),
606:Karl R. Popper (1979, Rev. ed.),
470:The Logic of Scientific Discovery
38:is a proposed description of the
1607:
1595:
524:, 298. Quoted in Jacques Roger,
473:. Abingdon-on-Thames: Routledge.
277:Additionally, as pointed out by
712:, University of Chicago Press,
411:Verifiability theory of meaning
799:Analytic–synthetic distinction
575:Carl Gustav Hempel (1905—1997)
1:
665:The Philosophy Behind Physics
620:Sean Carroll (3 July 2013).
573:Murzi, Mauro (2001, 2008), "
532:, p. 317 Huygens 317#4.
391:Models of scientific inquiry
352:Versus other research models
1132:Hypothetico-deductive model
1107:Deductive-nomological model
1092:Constructivist epistemology
682:and Peter E. Hodgson, eds.)
483:Peter Godfrey-Smith (2003)
32:hypothetico-deductive model
1660:
134:directly as proof of
61:
46:proceeds by formulating a
1586:
1193:Semantic view of theories
1112:Epistemological anarchism
1049:dependent and independent
663:Brody, Thomas A. (1993),
560:Document 28. Volume 7 is
543:The New Quotable Einstein
501:the error of confirmation
381:Explanandum and explanans
344:claims the model ignores
935:Intertheoretic reduction
924:Ignoramus et ignorabimus
901:Functional contextualism
416:Will to believe doctrine
147:affirming the consequent
1420:Philosophers of science
1198:Scientific essentialism
1147:Model-dependent realism
1082:Constructive empiricism
975:Evidence-based practice
635:Mesly, Olivier (2015),
530:Bynum & Porter 2005
1503:Alfred North Whitehead
1493:Charles Sanders Peirce
727:Taleb, Nassim Nicholas
595:Science and Skepticism
50:in a form that can be
1639:Philosophy of science
1602:Philosophy portal
1353:Hard and soft science
1348:Faith and rationality
1217:Scientific skepticism
997:Scientific Revolution
780:Philosophy of science
467:Popper, Karl (1959).
396:Philosophy of science
376:Deductive-nomological
335:immunizing stratagems
252:(prove the truth of)
92:. Form a conjecture (
1328:Criticism of science
1203:Scientific formalism
1087:Constructive realism
992:Scientific pluralism
965:Problem of induction
706:Godfrey-Smith, Peter
302:logically equivalent
227:and try to invent a
179:. If the outcome of
1395:Rhetoric of science
1333:Descriptive science
1077:Confirmation holism
970:Scientific evidence
930:Inductive reasoning
859:Demarcation problem
667:, Springer Verlag,
608:Objective Knowledge
443:Inductive reasoning
438:Deductive reasoning
433:Abductive reasoning
326:confirmation holism
291:confirmation holism
42:. According to it,
1614:Science portal
1543:Carl Gustav Hempel
1498:Wilhelm Windelband
1385:Questionable cause
1208:Scientific realism
1029:Underdetermination
864:Empirical evidence
854:Creative synthesis
622:"What is Science?"
591:John W. N. Watkins
514:Christiaan Huygens
485:Theory and Reality
422:Types of inference
358:inductive approach
346:underdetermination
44:scientific inquiry
1644:Conceptual models
1634:Scientific method
1621:
1620:
1463:
1462:
1375:Normative science
1232:Uniformitarianism
987:Scientific method
881:Explanatory power
742:978-1-4000-6351-2
646:978-3-319-15752-8
406:Scientific method
371:Confirmation bias
283:Bayesian analysis
64:Scientific method
40:scientific method
16:(Redirected from
1651:
1612:
1611:
1600:
1599:
1598:
1573:Bas van Fraassen
1528:Hans Reichenbach
1508:Bertrand Russell
1425:
1251:Philosophy of...
1034:Unity of science
827:Commensurability
773:
766:
759:
750:
745:
735:, Random House,
722:
700:
677:
650:
649:
632:
626:
625:
617:
611:
604:
598:
588:
582:
571:
565:
539:
533:
510:
504:
494:
488:
481:
475:
474:
464:
428:Strong inference
245:, and so forth.
21:
1659:
1658:
1654:
1653:
1652:
1650:
1649:
1648:
1624:
1623:
1622:
1617:
1606:
1596:
1594:
1582:
1563:Paul Feyerabend
1523:Michael Polanyi
1459:
1445:Galileo Galilei
1414:
1400:Science studies
1316:
1246:
1237:Verificationism
1142:Instrumentalism
1127:Foundationalism
1102:Conventionalism
1060:
896:Feminist method
782:
777:
743:
725:
720:
704:
698:
685:
680:Luis de la Peña
675:
662:
659:
654:
653:
647:
634:
633:
629:
619:
618:
614:
605:
601:
589:
585:
572:
568:
540:
536:
511:
507:
495:
491:
482:
478:
466:
465:
461:
456:
424:
367:
354:
275:
153:
66:
60:
28:
23:
22:
15:
12:
11:
5:
1657:
1655:
1647:
1646:
1641:
1636:
1626:
1625:
1619:
1618:
1616:
1604:
1592:
1587:
1584:
1583:
1581:
1580:
1575:
1570:
1565:
1560:
1555:
1550:
1548:W. V. O. Quine
1545:
1540:
1535:
1530:
1525:
1520:
1515:
1510:
1505:
1500:
1495:
1490:
1485:
1483:Rudolf Steiner
1480:
1475:
1473:Henri Poincaré
1470:
1464:
1461:
1460:
1458:
1457:
1452:
1447:
1442:
1437:
1431:
1429:
1422:
1416:
1415:
1413:
1412:
1407:
1402:
1397:
1392:
1387:
1382:
1377:
1372:
1371:
1370:
1360:
1355:
1350:
1345:
1343:Exact sciences
1340:
1335:
1330:
1324:
1322:
1321:Related topics
1318:
1317:
1315:
1314:
1313:
1312:
1307:
1302:
1297:
1292:
1287:
1280:Social science
1277:
1276:
1275:
1273:Space and time
1265:
1260:
1254:
1252:
1248:
1247:
1245:
1244:
1239:
1234:
1229:
1224:
1219:
1214:
1205:
1200:
1195:
1186:
1177:
1172:
1159:
1154:
1149:
1144:
1139:
1134:
1129:
1124:
1119:
1114:
1109:
1104:
1099:
1094:
1089:
1084:
1079:
1074:
1068:
1066:
1062:
1061:
1059:
1058:
1053:
1052:
1051:
1046:
1036:
1031:
1026:
1025:
1024:
1019:
1014:
1004:
999:
994:
989:
984:
982:Scientific law
979:
978:
977:
967:
962:
957:
952:
947:
942:
937:
932:
927:
920:
919:
918:
913:
903:
898:
893:
891:Falsifiability
888:
883:
878:
877:
876:
866:
861:
856:
851:
850:
849:
839:
834:
829:
824:
823:
822:
820:Mill's Methods
812:
801:
796:
790:
788:
784:
783:
778:
776:
775:
768:
761:
753:
747:
746:
741:
732:The Black Swan
723:
718:
702:
696:
683:
673:
658:
655:
652:
651:
645:
627:
612:
610:, pp. 30, 360.
599:
583:
566:
534:
505:
489:
476:
458:
457:
455:
452:
451:
450:
445:
440:
435:
430:
423:
420:
419:
418:
413:
408:
403:
398:
393:
388:
383:
378:
373:
366:
363:
353:
350:
318:
317:
314:
306:contrapositive
287:Bayes' theorem
274:
271:
258:. It can only
152:
151:
142:formal fallacy
111:
97:
85:
70:
62:Main article:
59:
56:
26:
24:
14:
13:
10:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
1656:
1645:
1642:
1640:
1637:
1635:
1632:
1631:
1629:
1615:
1610:
1605:
1603:
1593:
1591:
1588:
1585:
1579:
1576:
1574:
1571:
1569:
1566:
1564:
1561:
1559:
1556:
1554:
1551:
1549:
1546:
1544:
1541:
1539:
1536:
1534:
1533:Rudolf Carnap
1531:
1529:
1526:
1524:
1521:
1519:
1516:
1514:
1511:
1509:
1506:
1504:
1501:
1499:
1496:
1494:
1491:
1489:
1486:
1484:
1481:
1479:
1476:
1474:
1471:
1469:
1468:Auguste Comte
1466:
1465:
1456:
1453:
1451:
1448:
1446:
1443:
1441:
1440:Francis Bacon
1438:
1436:
1433:
1432:
1430:
1426:
1423:
1421:
1417:
1411:
1408:
1406:
1403:
1401:
1398:
1396:
1393:
1391:
1388:
1386:
1383:
1381:
1378:
1376:
1373:
1369:
1368:Pseudoscience
1366:
1365:
1364:
1361:
1359:
1356:
1354:
1351:
1349:
1346:
1344:
1341:
1339:
1336:
1334:
1331:
1329:
1326:
1325:
1323:
1319:
1311:
1308:
1306:
1303:
1301:
1298:
1296:
1293:
1291:
1288:
1286:
1283:
1282:
1281:
1278:
1274:
1271:
1270:
1269:
1266:
1264:
1261:
1259:
1256:
1255:
1253:
1249:
1243:
1240:
1238:
1235:
1233:
1230:
1228:
1227:Structuralism
1225:
1223:
1220:
1218:
1215:
1213:
1209:
1206:
1204:
1201:
1199:
1196:
1194:
1190:
1189:Received view
1187:
1185:
1181:
1178:
1176:
1173:
1171:
1167:
1163:
1160:
1158:
1155:
1153:
1150:
1148:
1145:
1143:
1140:
1138:
1135:
1133:
1130:
1128:
1125:
1123:
1120:
1118:
1115:
1113:
1110:
1108:
1105:
1103:
1100:
1098:
1097:Contextualism
1095:
1093:
1090:
1088:
1085:
1083:
1080:
1078:
1075:
1073:
1070:
1069:
1067:
1063:
1057:
1054:
1050:
1047:
1045:
1042:
1041:
1040:
1037:
1035:
1032:
1030:
1027:
1023:
1020:
1018:
1015:
1013:
1010:
1009:
1008:
1005:
1003:
1000:
998:
995:
993:
990:
988:
985:
983:
980:
976:
973:
972:
971:
968:
966:
963:
961:
958:
956:
953:
951:
948:
946:
943:
941:
938:
936:
933:
931:
928:
926:
925:
921:
917:
914:
912:
909:
908:
907:
904:
902:
899:
897:
894:
892:
889:
887:
884:
882:
879:
875:
872:
871:
870:
867:
865:
862:
860:
857:
855:
852:
848:
845:
844:
843:
840:
838:
835:
833:
830:
828:
825:
821:
818:
817:
816:
813:
811:
810:
806:
802:
800:
797:
795:
792:
791:
789:
785:
781:
774:
769:
767:
762:
760:
755:
754:
751:
744:
738:
734:
733:
728:
724:
721:
719:0-226-30063-3
715:
711:
707:
703:
699:
697:0-19-858409-1
693:
689:
684:
681:
676:
674:0-387-55914-0
670:
666:
661:
660:
656:
648:
642:
638:
631:
628:
623:
616:
613:
609:
603:
600:
596:
592:
587:
584:
580:
576:
570:
567:
563:
559:
556:
552:
551:0-691-12074-9
548:
544:
538:
535:
531:
527:
523:
520:(1897), Vol.
519:
515:
509:
506:
502:
498:
493:
490:
486:
480:
477:
472:
471:
463:
460:
453:
449:
446:
444:
441:
439:
436:
434:
431:
429:
426:
425:
421:
417:
414:
412:
409:
407:
404:
402:
399:
397:
394:
392:
389:
387:
384:
382:
379:
377:
374:
372:
369:
368:
364:
362:
359:
351:
349:
347:
343:
338:
336:
332:
327:
323:
322:falsification
315:
312:
311:
310:
307:
303:
299:
298:raven paradox
294:
292:
288:
284:
280:
272:
270:
268:
267:
263:
262:
257:
256:
251:
246:
244:
243:
238:
237:
232:
231:
226:
225:
220:
219:
214:
213:
208:
207:
202:
201:
196:
195:
190:
189:
184:
183:
178:
177:
172:
171:
166:
165:
160:
159:
149:
148:
143:
139:
138:
133:
132:
127:
126:
121:
117:
116:
112:
109:
108:
103:
102:
98:
95:
91:
90:
86:
83:
82:
77:
76:
72:
71:
69:
65:
57:
55:
53:
49:
45:
41:
37:
33:
19:
1578:Larry Laudan
1558:Imre Lakatos
1513:Otto Neurath
1488:Karl Pearson
1478:Pierre Duhem
1450:Isaac Newton
1380:Protoscience
1338:Epistemology
1212:Anti-realism
1210: /
1191: /
1182: /
1168: /
1166:Reductionism
1164: /
1137:Inductionism
1131:
1117:Evolutionism
922:
809:a posteriori
808:
804:
730:
709:
687:
664:
636:
630:
615:
607:
602:
594:
586:
578:
569:
561:
557:
554:
542:
537:
525:
521:
517:
508:
500:
492:
484:
479:
469:
462:
355:
342:Sean Carroll
339:
334:
319:
295:
276:
265:
264:
259:
254:
253:
249:
247:
241:
240:
235:
234:
229:
228:
223:
222:
217:
216:
211:
210:
205:
204:
199:
198:
193:
192:
187:
186:
181:
180:
175:
174:
169:
168:
163:
162:
157:
156:
154:
145:
136:
135:
130:
129:
124:
123:
114:
113:
106:
105:
100:
99:
88:
87:
80:
79:
74:
73:
67:
35:
31:
29:
1568:Ian Hacking
1553:Thomas Kuhn
1538:Karl Popper
1518:C. D. Broad
1435:Roger Bacon
1363:Non-science
1305:Linguistics
1285:Archaeology
1180:Rationalism
1170:Determinism
1157:Physicalism
1122:Fallibilism
1072:Coherentism
1002:Testability
955:Observation
950:Objectivity
911:alternative
842:Correlation
832:Consilience
331:Karl Popper
279:Carl Hempel
239:, look for
233:, deduce a
185:holds, and
118:. Test (or
52:falsifiable
18:Deductivism
1628:Categories
1455:David Hume
1428:Precursors
1310:Psychology
1290:Economics‎
1184:Empiricism
1175:Pragmatism
1162:Positivism
1152:Naturalism
1022:scientific
906:Hypothesis
869:Experiment
690:, Oxford,
657:References
497:Taleb 2007
401:Pragmatism
340:Physicist
273:Discussion
144:is called
120:experiment
94:hypothesis
48:hypothesis
1295:Geography
1263:Chemistry
1222:Scientism
1017:ladenness
837:Construct
815:Causality
597:, p. 319.
487:, p. 236.
454:Citations
1590:Category
1242:Vitalism
1065:Theories
1039:Variable
960:Paradigm
847:function
805:A priori
794:Analysis
787:Concepts
729:(2007),
708:(2003),
593:(1984),
365:See also
1300:History
1268:Physics
1258:Biology
1056:more...
1044:control
940:Inquiry
448:Analogy
386:Inquiry
261:falsify
140:. This
58:Example
1012:choice
1007:Theory
945:Nature
874:design
739:
716:
694:
671:
643:
549:
250:verify
215:shows
36:method
236:new 3
230:new 2
916:null
886:Fact
807:and
737:ISBN
714:ISBN
692:ISBN
669:ISBN
641:ISBN
547:ISBN
34:or
30:The
678:. (
577:",
1630::
348:.
293:.
203:,
197:,
173:,
167:,
161:,
772:e
765:t
758:v
701:.
624:.
558:7
522:7
503:.
266:2
255:2
242:4
224:2
218:3
212:4
206:1
200:4
194:3
188:3
182:4
176:4
170:3
164:2
158:1
150:.
137:2
131:3
125:2
115:4
107:2
101:3
89:2
84:.
81:2
75:1
20:)
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. Additional terms may apply.