380:(WTO) projects a rebound in global merchandise trade, forecasting a growth of 2.6% for the year, and an anticipated increase to 3.3% in 2025, following a 1.2% decline in 2023. During 2023, there was a significant reduction in merchandise exports, which fell by 5% to US$ 24.01 trillion, contrasting sharply with the commercial services sector, which saw a 9% increase in exports to US$ 7.54 trillion. The global GDP is expected to stabilize, maintaining a growth rate of 2.6% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025. From a regional perspective,
400:, with rates projected at 3.6%, 3.5%, and 3.4%, respectively, while European exports are anticipated to grow by only 1.7%. Import growth will likely be robust in Asia (5.6%) and Africa (4.4%), with Europe showing almost no growth at 0.1%. Digital services trade remains resilient, reaching US$ 4.25 trillion in exports in 2023, and accounting for 13.8% of global exports of goods and services, with significant growth observed in Africa (13%) and South and Central America and the
284:âor at a more disaggregated level, for specific sectors of the economy or even specific firms. Economic forecasting is a measure to find out the future prosperity of a pattern of investment and is the key activity in economic analysis. Many institutions engage in economic forecasting: national governments, banks and central banks, consultants and private sector entities such as think-tanks, companies and international organizations such as the
151:
43:
600:
experience with high inflation rates. Additionally, political events such as terrorism have been shown to influence the accuracy of both expert- and market-based forecasts of inflation and exchange rates. This highlights the range of external factors and biases that should be considered when evaluating the accuracy of forecasts and making informed decisions.
668:"can go above $ 1,000, but it canât move up 20-30%â; he was wrong, as the price of gold rose over the next 18 months, breaking through the $ 1,000 barrier to over $ 1,400. Although in May 2010 he predicted a 20% decline in the stock market, the S&P actually rose about 20% over the course of the next year (even excluding returns from dividends).
84:
420:(CBO) publishes a report titled "The Budget and Economic Outlook" annually, which primarily covers the following ten-year period. The U.S. Federal Reserve Board of Governors members also give speeches, provide testimony, and issue reports throughout the year that cover the economic outlook. Regional Federal Reserve Banks, such as the
447:. Private firms, central banks, and government agencies publish a large volume of forecast information to meet the strong demand for economic forecast data. Consensus Economics compiles the macroeconomic forecasts prepared by a variety of forecasters, and publishes them on a weekly and monthly basis.
480:
Literature review: Commentary from sources with summary-level perspective, such as the IMF, OECD, U.S. Federal
Reserve, and CBO helps with identifying key economic trends, issues and risks. Such commentary can also help the forecaster with their own assumptions while also giving them other forecasts
580:
There are many studies on the subject of forecast accuracy. Accuracy is one of the main, if not the main, criteria used to judge forecast quality. Some of the references below relate to academic studies of forecast accuracy. Forecasting performance appears to be time-dependent, where some exogenous
667:
would fall below 600 that year, and possibly plummet to 200. It closed at over 1,115, up 24%, the largest single year gain since 2003. In 2009 he also predicted that the US government would take over and nationalize a number of large banks; it did not happen. In
October 2009 he predicted that gold
599:
In recent years, research has demonstrated that behavioral biases play a significant role in affecting the accuracy of forecasts. The education and working experience of forecasters influence the accuracy and boldness of their predictions. Forecasting accuracy is also impacted by the forecaster's
311:
Everything from macroeconomic, microeconomic, market data from the future, machine-learning (artificial neural networks), and human behavioral studies have all been used to achieve better forecasts. Forecasts are used for a variety of purposes. Governments and businesses use economic forecasts to
456:
Econometric studies have demonstrated that the use of past errors of each original forecast to determine the weights assigned to each forecast in the creation of a combined forecast results in a composite set of forecasts that generally yield to lower mean-square errors compared to either of the
457:
individual original forecasts. However, it has been found that the entry and exit of forecasters can have a substantial impact on the real-time effectiveness of conventional combination methods. The dynamic nature of the forecasting combination and adjusting weighting techniques is not neutral.
328:
under study. For example, to what extent did changes in housing prices affect the net worth of the population overall in the past? This relationship can then be used to forecast the future. That is, if housing prices are expected to change in a particular way, what effect would that have on the
588:
In early 2014 the OECD carried out a self-analysis of its projections. "The OECD also found that it was too optimistic for countries that were most open to trade and foreign finance, that had the most tightly regulated markets and weak banking systems" according to the
Financial Times.
303:
The economist typically considers risks (i.e., events or conditions that can cause the result to vary from their initial estimates). These risks help illustrate the reasoning process used in arriving at the final forecast numbers. Economists typically use commentary along with
652:" caused soul searching in the profession. The UK's Queen Elizabeth herself asked why had ânobodyâ noticed that the credit crunch was on its way, and a group of economistsâexperts from business, the City, its regulators, academia, and governmentâtried to explain in a letter.
329:
future net worth of the population? Forecasts are generally based on sample data rather than a complete population, which introduces uncertainty. The economist conducts statistical tests and develops statistical models (often using
333:) to determine which relationships best describe or predict the behavior of the variables under study. Historical data and assumptions about the future are applied to the model in arriving at a forecast for particular variables.
592:
In 2012 Consensus
Economics launched its Forecast Accuracy Award, and each year publishes a list of winners who have most accurately predicted the final outcome of GDP and CPI for the prior year for over 40 countries.
658:
For example, in
Singapore Citi argued the country would experience "the most severe recession in Singaporeâs history". The economy grew in 2009 by 3.1% and in 2010, the nation saw a 15.2% growth rate. Similarly,
319:
Economists select which variables are important to the subject material under discussion. Economists may use statistical analysis of historical data to determine the apparent relationships between particular
2070:
2190:
495:
Determine historical relationships: Historical data is used to determine the relationships between one or more independent variables and the dependent variable under study, often by using
2069:"Assessment of Consensus Forecasts Accuracy: The Czech National Bank Perspective", Working Paper Series 14, 2010, December 2010 Filip NovotnĂ˝ and Marie RakovĂĄ (both Czech National Bank)
581:
events affect forecast quality. As expert forecasts are generally better than market-based forecasts, forecast performance depends on several factors: model, political economy (
308:
tools such as tables and charts to communicate their forecast. In preparing economic forecasts a variety of information has been used in an attempt to increase the accuracy.
663:
predicted in
January 2009 that oil prices would stay below $ 40 for all of 2009. By the end of 2009, however, oil prices were at $ 80. In March 2009, he predicted the
2112:
1726:
435:
The
European Commission also publishes comprehensive macroeconomic forecasts for its member countries on a quarterly basis - Spring, Summer, Autumn and Winter.
517:
Forecasters may use computational general equilibrium models or dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. The latter are often used by central banks.
316:, multi-year plans, and budgets for the upcoming year. Stock market analysts use forecasts to help them estimate the valuation of a company and its stock.
2061:"The IMF and OECD versus Consensus Forecasts", August 2000. Applied Economics, 33(2), p. 225-235 Roy Batchelor (City University Business School)
484:
Obtain data inputs: Historical data is gathered on key economic variables. This data is contained in print as well as electronic sources such as the
843:
2160:
1856:
1350:
1136:
168:
56:
1968:
1362:
806:
557:
106:
347:
1774:
1761:
1744:
2055:
1643:
1166:
385:
1502:
Benchimol, Jonathan; El-Shagi, Makram; Saadon, Yossi (2022). "Do Expert experience and characteristics affect inflation forecasts?".
1461:
1098:
French, J (December 2017). "Asset pricing with investor sentiment: On the use of investor group behavior to forecast ASEAN markets".
908:
421:
268:
is the process of making predictions about the economy. Forecasts can be carried out at a high level of aggregationâfor example for
252:
234:
132:
70:
2062:
215:
2130:
1812:
187:
655:
It was not just forecasting the Great
Recession, but also forecasting its impact where it was clear that economists struggled.
172:
477:
Scope: Key economic variables and topics for forecast commentary are determined based on the needs of the forecast audience.
194:
2185:
1618:
711:
485:
1259:. ISBN 978-92-870-7633-5. Retrieved April 12, 2024, from https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/trade_outlook24_e.pdf
506:. Models typically apply a computation to a series of inputs to generate an economic forecast for one or more variables.
1964:
1793:
563:
The World Bank provides a means for individuals and organizations to run their own simulations and forecasts using its
408:
to provide detailed insights into the evolving landscape of services trade, with a particular focus on digitalization.
1628:
918:
616:âwas not foreseen by most forecasters, though a number of analysts had been predicting it for some time (for example,
549:
417:
285:
201:
114:
110:
94:
1624:
2104:
161:
913:
469:
and results in estimated values for key economic variables in the future. An economist applies the techniques of
183:
62:
541:
377:
2121:
594:
1659:
Chen, Xiaoping; Shao, Yuchen (2017-09-11). "Trade policies for a small open economy: The case of
Singapore".
928:
553:
370:
1152:
405:
350:
is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The
2170:
1994:
1830:
529:
355:
269:
1935:
2030:
1998:
1779:
838:
443:
Forecasts from multiple sources may be arithmetically combined and the result is often referred to as a
321:
1287:
453:
magazine regularly provides such a snapshot as well, for a narrower range of countries and variables.
1816:
1699:
545:
533:
510:
366:
313:
1413:
CapistrĂĄn, Carlos; Timmermann, Allan (2009). "Forecast
Combination With Entry and Exit of Experts".
947:
Wells Fargo Economics-Multiple Examples of Reports Using Data Visualization-Retrieved July 15, 2015
903:
738:
525:
496:
330:
1475:
1232:
208:
2098:
1680:
1527:
1430:
1037:
975:
923:
537:
444:
325:
305:
1304:
427:
Large banks such as Wells Fargo and JP Morgan Chase provide economics reports and newsletters.
384:
is forecasted to experience the highest export growth at 5.3% in 2024, closely followed by the
2051:
1672:
1641:
British Academy-The Global Financial Crisis Why Didn't Anybody Notice?-Retrieved July 27, 2015
1595:
1519:
1132:
811:
521:
503:
2150:
1730:
1664:
1587:
1578:
Benchimol, Jonathan; El-Shagi, Makram (2020). "Forecast performance in times of terrorism".
1558:
1511:
1422:
1395:
1107:
1078:
1068:
1029:
1002:
967:
789:
706:
621:
617:
613:
1640:
1167:"IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO), April 2015: Uneven Growth: Short- and Long-Term Factors"
830:
Two bi-annual periods (6 months and 12 months from now), plus some forecasts for two years
1647:
1481:
660:
649:
637:
609:
781:
761:
645:
641:
281:
2023:
2179:
1684:
1531:
1434:
1339:
1057:"Back to the Future Betas: Empirical Asset Pricing of US and Southeast Asian Markets"
1041:
979:
946:
822:
785:
722:
625:
466:
449:
389:
1757:
1614:
777:
769:
629:
470:
277:
1591:
1270:"The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2015 to 2025 | Congressional Budget Office"
1033:
971:
672:
List of regularly published surveys based on polling economists on their forecasts
2072:"Assessment of Consensus Forecasts Accuracy: The Czech national Bank Perspective"
358:
report twice annually, which provides comprehensive global coverage. The IMF and
17:
1111:
765:
509:
Report: The outputs of the model are included in reports that typically include
393:
150:
31:
2078:
1515:
1288:"Speech by Chair Yellen on recent developments and the outlook for the economy"
958:
French, J (1 March 2017). "Macroeconomic Forces and Arbitrage Pricing Theory".
2165:
2090:
1913:
1006:
664:
633:
359:
300:. Some forecasts are produced annually, but many are updated more frequently.
289:
1676:
1599:
1523:
1316:
1426:
888:
Two quarters and six quarters from now, plus the current and next two years
854:
582:
401:
273:
2120:
A more compact and more accessible, but pre-crisis overview is provided in
993:
French, J (2016). "Economic determinants of wine consumption in Thailand".
862:
Two quarters and six quarters from now, plus the current and next two years
1399:
1184:
2097:
Two of the leading journals in the field of economic forecasting are the
1834:
1563:
1546:
757:
492:, which allow users to query historical values for variables of interest.
489:
2171:
FRB St. Louis-Kevin Kliesen-A Guide to Tracking the U.S. Economy-Q1 2015
2145:
1386:
Bates, J. M.; Granger, C. W. J. (1969). "The Combination of Forecasts".
1269:
1083:
1073:
1056:
362:
also produces Regional Economic Outlook for various parts of the world.
1796:
1668:
1763:
The Alpha Masters; Unlocking the Genius of the World's Top Hedge Funds
773:
502:
Model: Historical data inputs and assumptions are used to develop an
381:
297:
1884:
2048:
Fortune Tellers: The Story of America's First Economic Forecasters.
1462:
OECD forecasts during and after the financial crisis: a post mortem
1233:"WTO forecasts rebound in global trade but warns of downside risks"
113:
external links, and converting useful links where appropriate into
1351:
JP Morgan Chase-Guide to the Markets Q3 2015 - Retrieved July 2015
2126:, 4th edn, Cincinnati, OH: South-Western College Publishing, 2007
2024:"An Introduction to the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters"
1448:
397:
293:
2155:
2129:
A recent, comprehensive and accessible guide to forecasting is
2084:
351:
144:
77:
36:
1208:
1813:"Seven times the experts got it very wrong on the economy,"
753:
296:. A broad range of forecasts are collected and compiled by
1794:"'Dr. Doom' predicts some big banks will be nationalized,"
1476:"OECD admits to forecasting errors during eurozone crisis"
1305:
Federal Reserve-Monetary Policy Report-Retrieved July 2015
513:
and commentary to help the reader understand the forecast.
1128:
Introductory Econometrics with Applications-Third Edition
473:
in their forecasting process. Typical steps may include:
2111:
For a comprehensive but quite technical compendium, see
1850:
1848:
1846:
1844:
995:
International Journal of Economics and Business Research
648:). The failure of the majority of them to forecast the "
388:
at nearly the same rate. Moderate growth is expected in
1727:"That guy who called the big one? Donât listen to him."
102:
97:
may not follow Knowledge (XXG)'s policies or guidelines
2017:
2015:
1020:
French, J (11 Dec 2016). "The time traveller's CAPM".
175:. Unsourced material may be challenged and removed.
1474:
675:
612:that erupted in 2007âarguably the worst since the
465:The process of economic forecasting is similar to
2191:Mathematical and quantitative methods (economics)
2050:Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2013.
1153:"Forecasting methods and analytical tools - OECD"
2146:CBO Budget & Economic Outlook - 2015 to 2025
1292:Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
1504:Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
27:Process of making predictions about the economy
1257:Global Trade Outlook and Statistics April 2024
1100:Research in International Business and Finance
404:(11%). Additionally, the WTO has launched the
1959:
1957:
1955:
1953:
1415:Journal of Business & Economic Statistics
595:"Consensus Economics Forecast Accuracy Award"
8:
1831:"Nouriel Roubini Misses Another Prediction,"
2064:The IMF and OECD versus Consensus Forecasts
1908:
1906:
1904:
1902:
1700:"Factories slash output, jobs around world"
1388:Journal of the Operational Research Society
827:Bi-annually (June and December every year)
71:Learn how and when to remove these messages
1989:
1987:
1985:
1879:
1877:
1875:
1873:
1545:Malmendier, Ulrike; Nagel, Stefan (2016).
1061:International Journal of Financial Studies
2161:Fannie Mae Economic & Housing Outlook
2151:IMF - World Economic Outlook - April 2015
1721:
1719:
1562:
1367:European Commission - European Commission
1340:Wells Fargo Economics-Retrieved July 2015
1082:
1072:
365:There are also private companies such as
253:Learn how and when to remove this message
235:Learn how and when to remove this message
133:Learn how and when to remove this message
1995:"ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters"
1317:"Tracking the Recession - St. Louis Fed"
960:Journal of Comparative Asian Development
697:How far ahead the forecasts are made for
373:that provide global economic forecasts.
939:
760:region as well as various economies in
2156:World Bank - Global Economic Prospects
1620:The Warning: Interviews- Arthur Levitt
844:ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
1807:
1805:
1557:(1). Oxford University Press: 53â87.
1547:"Learning from Inflation Experiences"
7:
2106:International Journal of Forecasting
2086:World Bank Global Economic Prospects
2022:Juan Angel Garcia (September 2003).
1969:Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
1623:(Broadcast documentary transcript),
807:Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
558:Calculating Demand Forecast Accuracy
173:adding citations to reliable sources
1775:"Roubini to Cramer: âJust shut upâ"
705:Blue Chip Publications division of
1936:"Data For Institutional Investors"
1914:"Consensus Economics (about page)"
1255:World Trade Organization. (2024).
25:
2077:IMF forecasts can be found here:
1792:Joseph Lazzaro (March 26, 2009).
909:Economic Cycle Research Institute
691:List of countries/regions covered
604:Forecasts and the Great Recession
52:This article has multiple issues.
2114:Handbook of Economic Forecasting
2083:, World Bank forecasts are here
149:
82:
41:
2132:Economic Forecasting and Policy
2117:, North-Holland: Elsevier, 2006
1857:"Blue Chip Economic Indicators"
1829:Larry Swedroe (May 20, 2011).
1725:Joe Keohane (January 9, 2011).
520:Methods of forecasting include
160:needs additional citations for
60:or discuss these issues on the
1811:Alice Guy (January 16, 2023).
1551:Quarterly Journal of Economics
685:Number of individuals surveyed
406:Global Services Trade Data Hub
324:and their relationship to the
1:
1613:Levitt, Arthur (2009-10-20),
1592:10.1016/j.econmod.2020.05.018
1034:10.1080/10293523.2016.1255469
972:10.1080/15339114.2017.1297245
712:Blue Chip Economic Indicators
614:Great Depression of the 1930s
422:St Louis Federal Reserve Bank
1746:Personal Finance For Dummies
1698:Subler, Jason (2009-01-02).
585:), financial stability etc.
2089:, and OECD forecasts here:
1629:Public Broadcasting Service
1473:Giles, Chris (2014-02-11).
1185:"Regional Economic Outlook"
1112:10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.04.037
1022:Investment Analysts Journal
919:Social return on investment
688:Number of countries covered
608:The financial and economic
550:Reference class forecasting
418:Congressional Budget Office
286:International Monetary Fund
2207:
2080:IMF World Economic Outlook
1516:10.1016/j.jebo.2022.06.025
1213:Economics Politics Markets
1055:French, J (20 July 2016).
754:G-7 industrialized nations
312:help them determine their
29:
1125:Ramanathan, Ramu (1995).
1007:10.1504/IJEBR.2016.081229
914:Efficient contract theory
873:Resources for Economists
795:Daily, Weekly and monthly
2135:, 2d edn, Palgrave, 2011
1586:(C). Elsevier: 386â402.
1510:(C). Elsevier: 205â226.
1449:"ISimulate @ World Bank"
882:Global Economic Outlook
752:Member countries of the
542:Grinold and Kroner Model
424:also provide forecasts.
378:World Trade Organization
30:For related topics, see
2123:Elements of Forecasting
1427:10.1198/jbes.2009.07211
1321:research.stlouisfed.org
929:Stock market prediction
554:Transportation planning
371:Lombard Street Research
2100:Journal of Forecasting
530:Economic base analysis
376:As of April 2024, the
356:World Economic Outlook
184:"Economic forecasting"
2166:OECD Economic Outlook
2092:OECD Economic Outlook
2031:European Central Bank
1999:European Central Bank
1938:. Consensus Economics
1916:. Consensus Economics
1887:. Consensus Economics
1885:"Consensus Economics"
1780:The Los Angeles Times
1646:July 7, 2015, at the
1400:10.1057/jors.1969.103
839:European Central Bank
571:Issues in forecasting
322:independent variables
298:"Consensus Economics"
2186:Economic forecasting
2046:Walter A. Friedman,
1817:Interactive Investor
1363:"Economic forecasts"
1131:. The Dryden Press.
546:Land use forecasting
534:Shift-share analysis
511:information graphics
367:The Conference Board
337:Sources of forecasts
266:Economic forecasting
169:improve this article
103:improve this article
1965:"Livingston Survey"
1743:Eric Tyson (2018).
1276:. January 26, 2015.
1074:10.3390/ijfs4030015
904:Aladdin (BlackRock)
798:1 month to 10 years
743:Consensus Forecasts
739:Consensus Economics
526:Consensus forecasts
497:regression analysis
481:to compare against.
439:Combining Forecasts
331:regression analysis
115:footnote references
1855:Moore, Randell E.
1669:10.1111/twec.12555
1580:Economic Modelling
1564:10.1093/qje/qjv037
924:Financial forecast
565:iSimulate platform
538:Input-output model
522:Econometric models
445:consensus forecast
431:European forecasts
326:dependent variable
306:data visualization
1661:The World Economy
1138:978-0-03-094922-7
895:
894:
812:Livingston Survey
679:Organization name
576:Forecast accuracy
504:econometric model
263:
262:
255:
245:
244:
237:
219:
143:
142:
135:
75:
18:Economic forecast
16:(Redirected from
2198:
2035:
2034:
2028:
2019:
2010:
2009:
2007:
2005:
1991:
1980:
1979:
1977:
1975:
1961:
1948:
1947:
1945:
1943:
1932:
1926:
1925:
1923:
1921:
1910:
1897:
1896:
1894:
1892:
1881:
1868:
1867:
1865:
1863:
1852:
1839:
1827:
1821:
1809:
1800:
1790:
1784:
1783:, April 8, 2009.
1772:
1766:
1755:
1749:
1741:
1735:
1731:The Boston Globe
1723:
1714:
1713:
1711:
1710:
1695:
1689:
1688:
1656:
1650:
1638:
1632:
1631:
1610:
1604:
1603:
1575:
1569:
1568:
1566:
1542:
1536:
1535:
1499:
1493:
1492:
1490:
1489:
1478:
1470:
1464:
1459:
1453:
1452:
1445:
1439:
1438:
1410:
1404:
1403:
1383:
1377:
1376:
1374:
1373:
1359:
1353:
1348:
1342:
1337:
1331:
1330:
1328:
1327:
1313:
1307:
1302:
1296:
1295:
1284:
1278:
1277:
1266:
1260:
1253:
1247:
1246:
1244:
1243:
1229:
1223:
1222:
1220:
1219:
1205:
1199:
1198:
1196:
1195:
1181:
1175:
1174:
1163:
1157:
1156:
1149:
1143:
1142:
1122:
1116:
1115:
1095:
1089:
1088:
1086:
1076:
1052:
1046:
1045:
1017:
1011:
1010:
990:
984:
983:
955:
949:
944:
790:Nordic countries
707:Aspen Publishers
676:
622:Meredith Whitney
461:Forecast methods
348:Economic Outlook
258:
251:
240:
233:
229:
226:
220:
218:
177:
153:
145:
138:
131:
127:
124:
118:
86:
85:
78:
67:
45:
44:
37:
21:
2206:
2205:
2201:
2200:
2199:
2197:
2196:
2195:
2176:
2175:
2142:
2043:
2041:Further reading
2038:
2026:
2021:
2020:
2013:
2003:
2001:
1993:
1992:
1983:
1973:
1971:
1963:
1962:
1951:
1941:
1939:
1934:
1933:
1929:
1919:
1917:
1912:
1911:
1900:
1890:
1888:
1883:
1882:
1871:
1861:
1859:
1854:
1853:
1842:
1828:
1824:
1810:
1803:
1791:
1787:
1773:
1769:
1756:
1752:
1742:
1738:
1724:
1717:
1708:
1706:
1697:
1696:
1692:
1658:
1657:
1653:
1648:Wayback Machine
1639:
1635:
1612:
1611:
1607:
1577:
1576:
1572:
1544:
1543:
1539:
1501:
1500:
1496:
1487:
1485:
1482:Financial Times
1472:
1471:
1467:
1460:
1456:
1447:
1446:
1442:
1412:
1411:
1407:
1385:
1384:
1380:
1371:
1369:
1361:
1360:
1356:
1349:
1345:
1338:
1334:
1325:
1323:
1315:
1314:
1310:
1303:
1299:
1286:
1285:
1281:
1268:
1267:
1263:
1254:
1250:
1241:
1239:
1231:
1230:
1226:
1217:
1215:
1207:
1206:
1202:
1193:
1191:
1183:
1182:
1178:
1165:
1164:
1160:
1151:
1150:
1146:
1139:
1124:
1123:
1119:
1097:
1096:
1092:
1054:
1053:
1049:
1019:
1018:
1014:
992:
991:
987:
957:
956:
952:
945:
941:
937:
900:
674:
661:Nouriel Roubini
650:Great Recession
638:Nouriel Roubini
606:
578:
573:
463:
441:
433:
414:
344:
339:
259:
248:
247:
246:
241:
230:
224:
221:
178:
176:
166:
154:
139:
128:
122:
119:
100:
91:This article's
87:
83:
46:
42:
35:
28:
23:
22:
15:
12:
11:
5:
2204:
2202:
2194:
2193:
2188:
2178:
2177:
2174:
2173:
2168:
2163:
2158:
2153:
2148:
2141:
2140:External links
2138:
2137:
2136:
2127:
2118:
2109:
2095:
2075:
2067:
2059:
2056:978-0691169194
2042:
2039:
2037:
2036:
2011:
1981:
1949:
1927:
1898:
1869:
1840:
1822:
1801:
1785:
1767:
1750:
1736:
1715:
1690:
1651:
1633:
1605:
1570:
1537:
1494:
1465:
1454:
1440:
1421:(4): 428â440.
1405:
1394:(4): 451â468.
1378:
1354:
1343:
1332:
1308:
1297:
1279:
1261:
1248:
1224:
1200:
1176:
1158:
1144:
1137:
1117:
1090:
1047:
1012:
985:
950:
938:
936:
933:
932:
931:
926:
921:
916:
911:
906:
899:
896:
893:
892:
889:
886:
883:
880:
877:
874:
871:
867:
866:
863:
860:
857:
852:
849:
846:
841:
835:
834:
831:
828:
825:
820:
817:
814:
809:
803:
802:
799:
796:
793:
782:Eastern Europe
762:Western Europe
750:
747:
744:
741:
735:
734:
731:
728:
725:
720:
717:
714:
709:
702:
701:
698:
695:
692:
689:
686:
683:
680:
673:
670:
646:Robert Shiller
642:Brooksley Born
605:
602:
577:
574:
572:
569:
515:
514:
507:
500:
493:
482:
478:
462:
459:
440:
437:
432:
429:
413:
412:U.S. forecasts
410:
354:publishes the
343:
340:
338:
335:
282:fiscal deficit
261:
260:
243:
242:
157:
155:
148:
141:
140:
95:external links
90:
88:
81:
76:
50:
49:
47:
40:
26:
24:
14:
13:
10:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
2203:
2192:
2189:
2187:
2184:
2183:
2181:
2172:
2169:
2167:
2164:
2162:
2159:
2157:
2154:
2152:
2149:
2147:
2144:
2143:
2139:
2134:
2133:
2128:
2125:
2124:
2119:
2116:
2115:
2110:
2108:
2107:
2102:
2101:
2096:
2094:
2093:
2088:
2087:
2082:
2081:
2076:
2074:
2073:
2068:
2066:
2065:
2060:
2057:
2053:
2049:
2045:
2044:
2040:
2032:
2025:
2018:
2016:
2012:
2000:
1996:
1990:
1988:
1986:
1982:
1970:
1966:
1960:
1958:
1956:
1954:
1950:
1937:
1931:
1928:
1915:
1909:
1907:
1905:
1903:
1899:
1886:
1880:
1878:
1876:
1874:
1870:
1858:
1851:
1849:
1847:
1845:
1841:
1837:
1836:
1832:
1826:
1823:
1819:
1818:
1814:
1808:
1806:
1802:
1798:
1795:
1789:
1786:
1782:
1781:
1776:
1771:
1768:
1765:
1764:
1759:
1754:
1751:
1748:
1747:
1740:
1737:
1733:
1732:
1728:
1722:
1720:
1716:
1705:
1701:
1694:
1691:
1686:
1682:
1678:
1674:
1670:
1666:
1662:
1655:
1652:
1649:
1645:
1642:
1637:
1634:
1630:
1626:
1622:
1621:
1616:
1609:
1606:
1601:
1597:
1593:
1589:
1585:
1581:
1574:
1571:
1565:
1560:
1556:
1552:
1548:
1541:
1538:
1533:
1529:
1525:
1521:
1517:
1513:
1509:
1505:
1498:
1495:
1484:
1483:
1477:
1469:
1466:
1463:
1458:
1455:
1450:
1444:
1441:
1436:
1432:
1428:
1424:
1420:
1416:
1409:
1406:
1401:
1397:
1393:
1389:
1382:
1379:
1368:
1364:
1358:
1355:
1352:
1347:
1344:
1341:
1336:
1333:
1322:
1318:
1312:
1309:
1306:
1301:
1298:
1293:
1289:
1283:
1280:
1275:
1271:
1265:
1262:
1258:
1252:
1249:
1238:
1234:
1228:
1225:
1214:
1210:
1204:
1201:
1190:
1186:
1180:
1177:
1172:
1168:
1162:
1159:
1154:
1148:
1145:
1140:
1134:
1130:
1127:
1121:
1118:
1113:
1109:
1105:
1101:
1094:
1091:
1085:
1080:
1075:
1070:
1066:
1062:
1058:
1051:
1048:
1043:
1039:
1035:
1031:
1027:
1023:
1016:
1013:
1008:
1004:
1000:
996:
989:
986:
981:
977:
973:
969:
965:
961:
954:
951:
948:
943:
940:
934:
930:
927:
925:
922:
920:
917:
915:
912:
910:
907:
905:
902:
901:
897:
890:
887:
884:
881:
878:
875:
872:
869:
868:
864:
861:
858:
856:
853:
850:
847:
845:
842:
840:
837:
836:
832:
829:
826:
824:
823:United States
821:
818:
815:
813:
810:
808:
805:
804:
800:
797:
794:
791:
787:
786:Latin America
783:
779:
775:
771:
767:
763:
759:
755:
751:
748:
745:
742:
740:
737:
736:
732:
729:
726:
724:
723:United States
721:
718:
715:
713:
710:
708:
704:
703:
699:
696:
693:
690:
687:
684:
682:Forecast name
681:
678:
677:
671:
669:
666:
662:
656:
653:
651:
647:
643:
639:
635:
631:
627:
626:Gary Shilling
623:
619:
618:Stephen Roach
615:
611:
603:
601:
597:
596:
590:
586:
584:
575:
570:
568:
566:
561:
559:
555:
551:
547:
543:
539:
535:
531:
527:
523:
518:
512:
508:
505:
501:
498:
494:
491:
487:
486:FRED database
483:
479:
476:
475:
474:
472:
468:
467:data analysis
460:
458:
454:
452:
451:
450:The Economist
446:
438:
436:
430:
428:
425:
423:
419:
411:
409:
407:
403:
399:
395:
391:
390:North America
387:
383:
379:
374:
372:
368:
363:
361:
357:
353:
349:
341:
336:
334:
332:
327:
323:
317:
315:
309:
307:
301:
299:
295:
291:
287:
283:
279:
275:
271:
267:
257:
254:
239:
236:
228:
225:December 2009
217:
214:
210:
207:
203:
200:
196:
193:
189:
186: â
185:
181:
180:Find sources:
174:
170:
164:
163:
158:This article
156:
152:
147:
146:
137:
134:
126:
116:
112:
111:inappropriate
108:
104:
98:
96:
89:
80:
79:
74:
72:
65:
64:
59:
58:
53:
48:
39:
38:
33:
19:
2131:
2122:
2113:
2105:
2099:
2091:
2085:
2079:
2071:
2063:
2047:
2002:. Retrieved
1972:. Retrieved
1940:. Retrieved
1930:
1918:. Retrieved
1889:. Retrieved
1860:. Retrieved
1833:
1825:
1815:
1788:
1778:
1770:
1762:
1758:Maneet Ahuja
1753:
1745:
1739:
1729:
1707:. Retrieved
1703:
1693:
1660:
1654:
1636:
1619:
1615:Michael Kirk
1608:
1583:
1579:
1573:
1554:
1550:
1540:
1507:
1503:
1497:
1486:. Retrieved
1480:
1468:
1457:
1443:
1418:
1414:
1408:
1391:
1387:
1381:
1370:. Retrieved
1366:
1357:
1346:
1335:
1324:. Retrieved
1320:
1311:
1300:
1291:
1282:
1273:
1264:
1256:
1251:
1240:. Retrieved
1236:
1227:
1216:. Retrieved
1212:
1209:"TS Lombard"
1203:
1192:. Retrieved
1188:
1179:
1170:
1161:
1147:
1129:
1126:
1120:
1103:
1099:
1093:
1084:10419/167811
1064:
1060:
1050:
1028:(2): 81â96.
1025:
1021:
1015:
998:
994:
988:
963:
959:
953:
942:
778:Asia Pacific
770:Central Asia
657:
654:
630:Peter Schiff
607:
598:
591:
587:
579:
564:
562:
519:
516:
471:econometrics
464:
455:
448:
442:
434:
426:
415:
375:
364:
345:
342:Global scope
318:
310:
302:
278:unemployment
265:
264:
249:
231:
222:
212:
205:
198:
191:
179:
167:Please help
162:verification
159:
129:
120:
105:by removing
92:
68:
61:
55:
54:Please help
51:
1274:www.cbo.gov
1237:www.wto.org
1106:: 124â148.
966:(1): 1â20.
766:Middle East
700:Start date
665:S&P 500
544:. See also
394:Middle East
32:Forecasting
2180:Categories
1709:2020-09-20
1625:Frontlines
1488:2023-02-12
1372:2020-11-22
1326:2020-11-22
1242:2024-04-12
1218:2020-11-22
1194:2020-11-22
1001:(4): 334.
885:Quarterly
634:Marc Faber
386:CIS region
360:World Bank
290:World Bank
195:newspapers
57:improve it
2004:April 13,
1974:April 17,
1942:April 14,
1920:April 14,
1891:April 14,
1862:April 13,
1685:158182047
1677:0378-5920
1600:0264-9993
1532:229274267
1524:0167-2681
1435:116453612
1067:(3): 15.
1042:157962452
980:157510462
935:Footnotes
859:Quarterly
855:Euro zone
746:over 1000
694:Frequency
583:terrorism
416:The U.S.
402:Caribbean
274:inflation
107:excessive
63:talk page
2103:and the
1835:CBS News
1760:(2014).
1644:Archived
898:See also
788:and the
758:Eurozone
727:Monthly
540:and the
490:Eurostat
314:strategy
292:and the
123:May 2016
1797:AOL.com
1704:Reuters
1617:(ed.),
280:or the
209:scholar
101:Please
93:use of
2054:
1683:
1675:
1598:
1530:
1522:
1433:
1135:
1040:
978:
774:Africa
764:, the
756:, the
644:, and
610:crisis
396:, and
392:, the
382:Africa
211:
204:
197:
190:
182:
2027:(PDF)
1681:S2CID
1528:S2CID
1431:S2CID
1038:S2CID
976:S2CID
891:1949
865:1999
833:1946
801:1989
733:1976
216:JSTOR
202:books
2052:ISBN
2006:2014
1976:2014
1944:2014
1922:2014
1893:2014
1864:2014
1673:ISSN
1596:ISSN
1520:ISSN
1133:ISBN
870:RFE
716:50+
556:and
398:Asia
369:and
346:The
294:OECD
188:news
1665:doi
1588:doi
1559:doi
1555:131
1512:doi
1508:201
1423:doi
1396:doi
1189:IMF
1171:IMF
1108:doi
1079:hdl
1069:doi
1030:doi
1003:doi
968:doi
749:115
488:or
352:IMF
270:GDP
171:by
109:or
2182::
2029:.
2014:^
1997:.
1984:^
1967:.
1952:^
1901:^
1872:^
1843:^
1804:^
1777:,
1718:^
1702:.
1679:.
1671:.
1663:.
1627:,
1594:.
1584:91
1582:.
1553:.
1549:.
1526:.
1518:.
1506:.
1479:.
1429:.
1419:27
1417:.
1392:20
1390:.
1365:.
1319:.
1290:.
1272:.
1235:.
1211:.
1187:.
1169:.
1104:42
1102:.
1077:.
1063:.
1059:.
1036:.
1026:46
1024:.
999:12
997:.
974:.
964:16
962:.
879:?
876:?
848:55
819:1
816:?
784:,
780:,
776:,
772:,
768:,
730:?
719:1
640:,
636:,
632:,
628:,
624:,
620:,
567:.
560:.
552:,
548:,
536:,
532:,
528:,
524:,
288:,
276:,
272:,
66:.
2058:.
2033:.
2008:.
1978:.
1946:.
1924:.
1895:.
1866:.
1838:.
1820:.
1799:.
1734:.
1712:.
1687:.
1667::
1602:.
1590::
1567:.
1561::
1534:.
1514::
1491:.
1451:.
1437:.
1425::
1402:.
1398::
1375:.
1329:.
1294:.
1245:.
1221:.
1197:.
1173:.
1155:.
1141:.
1114:.
1110::
1087:.
1081::
1071::
1065:4
1044:.
1032::
1009:.
1005::
982:.
970::
851:?
792:.
499:.
256:)
250:(
238:)
232:(
227:)
223:(
213:¡
206:¡
199:¡
192:¡
165:.
136:)
130:(
125:)
121:(
117:.
99:.
73:)
69:(
34:.
20:)
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. Additional terms may apply.
