Knowledge (XXG)

Incidence (epidemiology)

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to cure, so the fraction of individuals that are affected remains high). In contrast, a disease that has a short duration may have a low prevalence and a high incidence. When the incidence is approximately constant for the duration of the disease, prevalence is approximately the product of disease incidence and average disease duration, so
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If you were to measure prevalence you would simply take the total number of cases (25 + 20 + 30 = 75) and divide by your sample population (225). So prevalence would be 75/225 = 0.33 or 33% (by the end of the study). This tells you how widespread HIV is in your sample population, but little about the
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For example, consider a disease that takes a long time to cure and was widespread in 2002 but dissipated in 2003. This disease will have both high incidence and high prevalence in 2002, but in 2003 it will have a low incidence yet will continue to have a high prevalence (because it takes a long time
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To measure incidence rate you must take into account how many years each person contributed to the study, and when they developed HIV because when a subject develops HIV he stops being at risk. When it is not known exactly when a person develops the disease in question, epidemiologists frequently
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That is a total of (1500 + 275) = 1775 person-years of life. Now take the 50 new cases of HIV, and divide by 1775 to get 0.028, or 28 cases of HIV per 1000 population, per year. In other words, if you were to follow 1000 people for one year, you would see 28 new cases of HIV. This is a much more
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of the total number of cases to the total population and is more a measure of the burden of the disease on society with no regard to time at risk or when subjects may have been exposed to a possible risk factor. Prevalence can also be measured with respect to a specific subgroup of a population.
1011:. The importance of this equation is in the relation between prevalence and incidence; for example, when the incidence increases, then the prevalence must also increase. Note that this relation does not hold for age-specific prevalence and incidence, where the relation becomes more complicated. 998:, which is the proportion of cases in the population at a given time rather than rate of occurrence of new cases. Thus, incidence conveys information about the risk of contracting the disease, whereas prevalence indicates how widespread the disease is. Prevalence is the 1049:
At 10 years you found 30 new cases. These people did not have HIV at 5 years, but did at 10, so you assume they were infected at 7.5 years, thus contributing (30 * 7.5) = 225 person-years of disease-free life. That is a total of (225 + 50) = 275 person years so
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Incidence is usually more useful than prevalence in understanding the disease etiology: for example, if the incidence rate of a disease in a population increases, then there is a risk factor that promotes the incidence.
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For example, if a population contains 1,000 persons and 28 develop a condition from the time the disease first occurred until two years later, the cumulative incidence is 28 cases per 1,000 persons, i.e. 2.8%.
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One of the important advantages of incidence rate is that it doesn't require all subjects to be present for the whole study because it's only interested in the time at risk.
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You also want to account for the 150 people who never had or developed HIV over the 10-year period, (150 * 10) contributing 1500 person-years of disease-free life.
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At 5 yrs you found 20 new cases, so you assume they developed HIV at 2.5 years, thus contributing (20 * 2.5) = 50 person-years of disease-free life.
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Consider the following example. Say you are looking at a sample population of 225 people, and want to determine the incidence rate of developing
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At the beginning of the study (t=0) you find 25 cases of existing HIV. These people are not counted as they cannot develop HIV a second time.
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Brinks R (2011) "A new method for deriving incidence rates from prevalence data and its application to dementia in Germany",
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can be calculated by dividing the number of subjects developing a disease by the total time at risk from all patients:
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use the actuarial method, and assume it was developed at a half-way point between follow-ups. In this calculation:
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Person-Years Analysis and Computation Programme for calculating standardized incidence rates (SIRs)
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Noordzij, Marlies; Dekker, Friedo W.; Zoccali, Carmine; Jager, Kitty J. (2010-02-19).
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A second follow-up at the end of the study (t=10 years) finds 30 new cases.
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actual risk of developing HIV for any person over a coming year.
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A follow-up at 5 years (t=5 years) finds 20 new cases of HIV.
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Prevalence § Difference between prevalence and incidence
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Unsourced material may be challenged and removed. 970: 586: 2917: 1200: 8: 163:reflects the number of new cases of a given 3129: 2924: 2910: 2902: 2373: 1827: 1701: 1658: 1563: 1232: 1207: 1193: 1185: 1167:Calculation of standardized incidence rate 1058:accurate measure of risk than prevalence. 663: 616: 225: 193: 120:Learn how and when to remove this message 3216:Preventable fraction among the unexposed 3212:Attributable fraction for the population 3220:Preventable fraction for the population 3208:Attributable fraction among the exposed 2281:Ear-Nose-Throat/Upper respiratory tract 1454:Access to water, sanitation and hygiene 1089: 143:Evolution of weekly incidence rates of 27:Chance over time of a medical condition 2864:Infectious disease (medical specialty) 2756:Antimicrobial resistance surveillance 994:Incidence should not be confused with 7: 3383:Correlation does not imply causation 3299:Animal testing on non-human primates 2111:Compartmental models in epidemiology 1097: 1095: 1093: 58:adding citations to reliable sources 151:from January 2002 to December 2008 25: 1009:prevalence = incidence Ă— duration 2860:Economics of Infectious Diseases 34: 45:needs additional citations for 3266:Pre- and post-test probability 2988:Patient and public involvement 2869:Infectious disease informatics 2700:Transmission-based precautions 1: 2286:Chest/Lower respiratory tract 2061:Ocular (Eye) mucosal membrane 1422:Behavioral/lifestyle factors 69:"Incidence" epidemiology 3393:Sex as a biological variable 1848:Aerosol-generating procedure 1626:Silent/Subclinical infection 1326:Multidrug-resistant bacteria 3357:Intention-to-treat analysis 3329:Analysis of clinical trials 3258:Specificity and sensitivity 3012:Randomized controlled trial 2512:Vaccine-preventable disease 2460:Monoclonal antibody therapy 3469: 2653:Respiratory source control 987: 3401: 3366:Interpretation of results 3099:Nested case–control study 2797:Global Health Initiatives 2787:Evolutionary epidemiology 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383: 380: 377: 371: 365: 362: 359: 356: 350: 347: 344: 341: 338: 335: 332: 326: 323: 320: 314: 311: 308: 305: 302: 299: 296: 293: 290: 287: 281: 278: 275: 272: 269: 266: 263: 260: 254: 251: 245: 242: 239: 236: 233: 230: 224: 221: 218: 215: 212: 209: 206: 203: 200: 197: 172: 169: 128: 127: 42: 40: 33: 26: 24: 14: 13: 10: 9: 6: 4: 3: 2: 3465: 3454: 3451: 3449: 3446: 3444: 3441: 3440: 3438: 3423: 3422: 3418: 3416: 3415: 3411: 3409: 3408: 3404: 3403: 3400: 3394: 3391: 3389: 3386: 3384: 3381: 3379: 3376: 3374: 3371: 3370: 3368: 3364: 3358: 3355: 3353: 3352:Meta-analysis 3350: 3348: 3345: 3343: 3340: 3338: 3335: 3334: 3332: 3330: 3326: 3320: 3319:Vaccine trial 3317: 3315: 3314:Seeding trial 3312: 3310: 3307: 3305: 3302: 3300: 3297: 3295: 3292: 3290: 3287: 3285: 3282: 3281: 3279: 3275: 3267: 3263: 3259: 3255: 3251: 3247: 3243: 3239: 3235: 3231: 3229: 3225: 3221: 3217: 3213: 3209: 3205: 3203: 3199: 3195: 3191: 3187: 3183: 3179: 3175: 3171: 3167: 3165: 3161: 3157: 3153: 3149: 3145: 3141: 3137: 3135: 3131: 3128: 3126: 3122: 3116: 3113: 3111: 3108: 3106: 3103: 3100: 3096: 3093: 3089: 3086: 3084: 3083:Retrospective 3081: 3080: 3079: 3076: 3074: 3070: 3066: 3063: 3062: 3060: 3057: 3052: 3048: 3040: 3037: 3036: 3035: 3032: 3028: 3025: 3023: 3020: 3018: 3015: 3014: 3013: 3010: 3009: 3007: 3004: 3003:EBM I to II-1 2999: 2995: 2989: 2986: 2984: 2981: 2979: 2976: 2974: 2971: 2969: 2966: 2962: 2959: 2957: 2954: 2953: 2952: 2949: 2948: 2946: 2942: 2938: 2934: 2927: 2922: 2920: 2915: 2913: 2908: 2907: 2904: 2890: 2887: 2886: 2885: 2882: 2880: 2877: 2875: 2872: 2870: 2867: 2865: 2862: 2859: 2857: 2854: 2852: 2849: 2848: 2846: 2842: 2836: 2833: 2831: 2828: 2826: 2823: 2821: 2818: 2815: 2813: 2810: 2808: 2805: 2803: 2800: 2798: 2795: 2793: 2790: 2788: 2785: 2783: 2780: 2778: 2775: 2773: 2770: 2768: 2765: 2761: 2758: 2757: 2755: 2753: 2750: 2748: 2745: 2744: 2742: 2740: 2734: 2723: 2721: 2718: 2716: 2713: 2711: 2708: 2706: 2703: 2701: 2698: 2696: 2695:Sterilization 2693: 2691: 2688: 2686: 2683: 2681: 2678: 2676: 2673: 2669: 2666: 2664: 2663:Surgical mask 2661: 2659: 2656: 2655: 2654: 2651: 2649: 2646: 2644: 2641: 2637: 2634: 2632: 2629: 2626: 2623: 2622: 2621: 2620:Public health 2618: 2616: 2613: 2609: 2606: 2605: 2604: 2601: 2599: 2596: 2592: 2589: 2588: 2587: 2584: 2580: 2577: 2575: 2572: 2570: 2567: 2566: 2565: 2562: 2560: 2557: 2555: 2552: 2550: 2547: 2545: 2542: 2540: 2537: 2536: 2534: 2532: 2526: 2518: 2515: 2513: 2510: 2508: 2505: 2503: 2500: 2498: 2495: 2494: 2493: 2490: 2488: 2485: 2483: 2480: 2478: 2475: 2473: 2472:Phage therapy 2470: 2468: 2465: 2461: 2458: 2457: 2456: 2455:Immunotherapy 2453: 2451: 2448: 2446: 2443: 2441: 2438: 2436: 2433: 2431: 2428: 2426: 2423: 2419: 2416: 2415: 2414: 2413:Antimicrobial 2411: 2407: 2404: 2403: 2402: 2399: 2397: 2394: 2390: 2387: 2386: 2385: 2382: 2381: 2379: 2375: 2372: 2370: 2362: 2355: 2353: 2350: 2348: 2345: 2343: 2340: 2338: 2335: 2333: 2330: 2327: 2325: 2322: 2320: 2317: 2314: 2312: 2309: 2306: 2304:Genitourinary 2303: 2299: 2296: 2295: 2294: 2291: 2287: 2284: 2282: 2279: 2278: 2276: 2275: 2273: 2267: 2257: 2254: 2252: 2249: 2247: 2244: 2242: 2239: 2237: 2234: 2232: 2229: 2227: 2224: 2222: 2219: 2217: 2214: 2212: 2209: 2207: 2204: 2202: 2199: 2197: 2194: 2190: 2187: 2185: 2182: 2181: 2180: 2177: 2175: 2172: 2170: 2167: 2166: 2164: 2162:in population 2158: 2152: 2149: 2147: 2144: 2142: 2139: 2137: 2134: 2132: 2129: 2127: 2126:Herd immunity 2124: 2122: 2119: 2117: 2114: 2112: 2109: 2107: 2104: 2102: 2099: 2097: 2094: 2092: 2089: 2088: 2086: 2084: 2080: 2062: 2059: 2058: 2056: 2052: 2045: 2044: 2042: 2038: 2031: 2030: 2028: 2024: 2018: 2015: 2014: 2012: 2010:Genitourinary 2008: 2002: 1998: 1996: 1993: 1991: 1988: 1986: 1983: 1982: 1980: 1976: 1970: 1967: 1965: 1962: 1960: 1957: 1953: 1952:Contamination 1950: 1949: 1948: 1945: 1944: 1942: 1938: 1930: 1927: 1925: 1922: 1921: 1920:Vector-borne 1919: 1915: 1912: 1910: 1907: 1906: 1904: 1900: 1897: 1894: 1892: 1889: 1887: 1884: 1883: 1881: 1879: 1876: 1875: 1873: 1867: 1861: 1858: 1856: 1853: 1849: 1846: 1845: 1844: 1841: 1839: 1836: 1835: 1833: 1829: 1826: 1822: 1816: 1813: 1812: 1810: 1804: 1798: 1795: 1791: 1788: 1784: 1781: 1778: 1775: 1774: 1773: 1770: 1769: 1767: 1763: 1760: 1758: 1755: 1754: 1752: 1750: 1747: 1746: 1744: 1740: 1736: 1730: 1727: 1725: 1722: 1720: 1717: 1715: 1712: 1711: 1709: 1707: 1706:Cross-species 1703: 1700: 1696: 1689: 1686: 1683: 1680: 1678: 1675: 1673: 1670: 1667: 1666: 1664: 1660: 1657: 1653: 1647: 1646:Window period 1644: 1642: 1639: 1637: 1634: 1632: 1629: 1627: 1624: 1622: 1619: 1617: 1614: 1612: 1611:Latent period 1609: 1607: 1604: 1602: 1599: 1597: 1594: 1592: 1589: 1587: 1584: 1582: 1579: 1577: 1574: 1573: 1571: 1565: 1562: 1560: 1556: 1546: 1543: 1541: 1538: 1536: 1533: 1531: 1528: 1526: 1523: 1521: 1518: 1514: 1511: 1510: 1508: 1506: 1503: 1501: 1498: 1496: 1493: 1491: 1490:Deforestation 1488: 1486: 1483: 1479: 1476: 1474: 1471: 1470: 1468: 1466: 1463: 1460: 1457: 1455: 1452: 1451: 1449: 1447: 1443: 1435:Stress levels 1434: 1431: 1427: 1424: 1423: 1421: 1418: 1415: 1412: 1409: 1406: 1405: 1404: 1401: 1399: 1396: 1394: 1391: 1389: 1386: 1382: 1379: 1377: 1374: 1373: 1372: 1369: 1367: 1364: 1362: 1359: 1357: 1354: 1352: 1349: 1348: 1346: 1344: 1340: 1334: 1331: 1327: 1324: 1322: 1319: 1317: 1314: 1313: 1312: 1309: 1305: 1302: 1300: 1297: 1295: 1292: 1290: 1287: 1286: 1285: 1282: 1280: 1277: 1273: 1270: 1269: 1268: 1267:Pathogenicity 1265: 1261: 1258: 1257: 1256: 1253: 1251: 1248: 1246: 1243: 1242: 1240: 1238: 1234: 1231: 1227: 1222: 1218: 1210: 1205: 1203: 1198: 1196: 1191: 1190: 1187: 1180: 1177: 1175: 1171: 1168: 1165: 1164: 1160: 1153: 1149: 1143: 1140: 1129: 1125: 1121: 1117: 1113: 1109: 1105: 1098: 1096: 1094: 1090: 1083: 1079: 1076: 1074: 1071: 1069: 1066: 1065: 1061: 1059: 1052: 1048: 1045: 1044: 1043: 1039: 1032: 1029: 1026: 1025: 1024: 1022: 1014: 1012: 1010: 1004: 1001: 997: 991: 983: 981: 978: 962: 959: 956: 953: 950: 947: 944: 938: 935: 932: 926: 923: 920: 914: 911: 905: 902: 899: 896: 893: 890: 884: 881: 878: 872: 869: 866: 860: 857: 854: 851: 845: 842: 836: 833: 830: 827: 821: 818: 815: 812: 809: 803: 800: 797: 792: 789: 786: 783: 780: 777: 774: 768: 762: 759: 756: 753: 750: 747: 744: 741: 738: 735: 729: 726: 723: 720: 717: 714: 711: 708: 702: 699: 693: 690: 687: 684: 681: 678: 672: 669: 666: 660: 657: 654: 651: 648: 642: 639: 636: 633: 630: 627: 624: 621: 618: 610: 608: 600: 598: 594: 578: 575: 572: 569: 566: 563: 557: 554: 551: 548: 542: 539: 536: 533: 527: 524: 521: 518: 515: 512: 509: 506: 500: 497: 494: 491: 488: 485: 482: 479: 473: 470: 464: 461: 458: 455: 452: 449: 443: 440: 437: 434: 431: 425: 422: 419: 414: 411: 408: 405: 402: 399: 393: 390: 387: 384: 381: 378: 375: 369: 363: 360: 357: 354: 348: 345: 342: 339: 336: 333: 330: 324: 321: 318: 312: 309: 306: 303: 300: 297: 294: 291: 288: 285: 279: 276: 273: 270: 267: 264: 261: 258: 252: 249: 243: 240: 237: 234: 231: 228: 222: 219: 216: 213: 210: 207: 204: 201: 198: 195: 187: 185: 181: 177: 170: 168: 166: 162: 158: 150: 146: 124: 121: 113: 110:November 2007 102: 99: 95: 92: 88: 85: 81: 78: 74: 71: â€“  70: 66: 65:Find sources: 59: 55: 49: 48: 43:This article 41: 37: 32: 31: 19: 3443:Epidemiology 3419: 3412: 3405: 3194:Hazard ratio 3139: 3078:Cohort study 2603:Notification 2574:Hand washing 2569:Food hygiene 2554:Disinfection 2450:Immunization 2401:Anthelmintic 2389:prophylactic 2277:Respiratory 2205: 2201:Hyperendemic 2151:WAIFW matrix 1806:Environment- 1559:Transmission 1535:Urbanization 1333:Host tropism 1229:Determinants 1215:Concepts in 1142: 1131:. Retrieved 1111: 1107: 1056: 1040: 1036: 1018: 1008: 1005: 993: 979: 611: 606: 604: 595: 188: 183: 179: 175: 174: 160: 157:epidemiology 154: 145:Dengue fever 116: 107: 97: 90: 83: 76: 64: 52:Please help 47:verification 44: 3388:Null result 3347:Replication 3242:Infectivity 3164:Association 3115:Case report 3105:Case series 3088:Prospective 2856:Eradication 2767:Biosecurity 2492:Vaccination 2467:Inoculation 2445:Drug safety 2440:Combination 2367:and Control 2315:Soft tissue 2269:Anatomical 2236:Seasonality 2216:Mesoendemic 2196:Holoendemic 2189:Farr's laws 2101:Attack rate 1899:Animal bite 1895:Insect bite 1831:Respiratory 1458:Air quality 1446:Environment 1356:Comorbidity 1272:Attack rate 1255:Infectivity 1068:Attack rate 18:Person-time 3437:Categories 3190:Odds ratio 3182:Risk ratio 3148:Prevalence 3134:Occurrence 3110:Case study 2739:infections 2680:Sanitation 2648:Quarantine 2507:resistance 2425:Antiseptic 2406:Ascaricide 2396:Antifungal 2384:Antibiotic 2365:Prevention 2298:Intestinal 2231:Prevalence 2211:Inequality 2160:Occurrence 1959:Breastmilk 1843:Bioaerosol 1815:Sapronosis 1790:Horizontal 1662:Endogenous 1641:Viral load 1601:Index case 1133:2024-05-29 1084:References 1078:Rate ratio 1000:proportion 996:prevalence 988:See also: 80:newspapers 3250:Morbidity 3238:Virulence 3140:Incidence 2851:Discovery 2777:Disease X 2737:Emerging 2685:Screening 2586:Isolation 2430:Antiviral 2256:Twindemic 2206:Incidence 2083:Modelling 2046:Perinatal 1978:Cutaneous 1869:Linked to 1779:Perinatal 1698:Exogenous 1690:formation 1432:Pregnancy 1289:Endotoxin 1284:Virulence 1152:1112.2720 161:incidence 3414:Glossary 3407:Category 3284:In vitro 3125:Measures 2944:Overview 2760:EARS-Net 2675:Safe sex 2627:services 2598:Lockdown 2369:measures 2271:location 2251:Syndemic 2246:Sporadic 2226:Pandemic 2221:Outbreak 2179:Epidemic 2032:Prenatal 1924:Mosquito 1808:to-human 1783:Neonatal 1776:Prenatal 1724:Zoonosis 1569:concepts 1500:Humidity 1485:Commerce 1361:Diabetes 1294:Exotoxin 1170:Archived 1128:20173345 1062:See also 149:Cambodia 3453:Hygiene 3289:In vivo 2564:Hygiene 2502:booster 2435:Asepsis 2174:Endemic 2169:Cluster 1753:Source 1688:Biofilm 1525:Poverty 1495:Ecology 1473:El Niño 1426:Smoking 1304:factors 1245:Biofilm 1221:Outline 1179:PAMCOMP 1015:Example 94:scholar 2772:CRISPR 2724:Zoning 2579:Gloves 1990:Fomite 1824:Routes 1719:Vector 1586:Fomite 1567:Basic 1530:Travel 1410:Gender 1126:  942:  930:  918:  909:  888:  876:  864:  849:  840:  825:  807:  772:  766:  733:  706:  697:  676:  646:  561:  546:  531:  504:  477:  468:  447:  429:  397:  373:  367:  352:  328:  316:  283:  256:  247:  96:  89:  82:  75:  67:  3228:Other 2844:Other 2352:Fetus 2347:Mouth 2342:Tooth 2337:Blood 2324:Joint 2184:Curve 2054:Other 2001:wound 1999:Open 1969:Feces 1964:Water 1655:Modes 1513:Flood 1237:Agent 1148:arXiv 101:JSTOR 87:books 3067:vs. 2935:and 2608:list 2529:Non- 2319:Bone 2311:Skin 1995:Soil 1985:Burn 1947:Food 1929:Tick 1591:Host 1351:Burn 1343:Host 1124:PMID 1050:far. 605:The 73:news 2668:PPE 2356:Eye 2017:Sex 1838:Air 1407:Age 1116:doi 1112:115 1021:HIV 155:In 147:in 56:by 3439:: 3264:, 3260:, 3256:, 3252:, 3248:, 3244:, 3240:, 3236:, 3218:, 3214:, 3210:, 3192:, 3188:, 3184:, 3180:, 3176:, 3172:, 3154:, 3150:, 3146:, 3142:, 3071:, 1122:. 1110:. 1106:. 1092:^ 180:IP 159:, 3101:) 3097:( 3058:) 3054:( 3005:) 3001:( 2925:e 2918:t 2911:v 1223:) 1219:( 1208:e 1201:t 1194:v 1150:: 1136:. 1118:: 963:e 960:s 957:a 954:e 951:s 948:i 945:d 939:e 936:h 933:t 927:t 924:e 921:g 915:o 912:t 906:e 903:l 900:p 897:o 894:e 891:p 885:l 882:l 879:a 873:r 870:o 867:f 861:k 858:s 855:i 852:r 846:t 843:a 837:e 834:m 831:i 828:t 822:l 819:a 816:t 813:o 810:t 804:e 801:h 798:t 793:e 790:s 787:a 784:e 781:s 778:i 775:d 769:a 763:g 760:n 757:i 754:p 751:o 748:l 745:e 742:v 739:e 736:d 730:s 727:t 724:c 721:e 718:j 715:b 712:u 709:s 703:f 700:o 694:r 691:e 688:b 685:m 682:u 679:n 673:e 670:h 667:t 661:= 658:e 655:t 652:a 649:r 643:e 640:c 637:n 634:e 631:d 628:i 625:c 622:n 619:I 579:d 576:o 573:i 570:r 567:e 564:p 558:t 555:a 552:h 549:t 543:r 540:e 537:v 534:o 528:d 525:e 522:w 519:o 516:l 513:l 510:o 507:f 501:s 498:t 495:c 492:e 489:j 486:b 483:u 480:s 474:f 471:o 465:r 462:e 459:b 456:m 453:u 450:n 444:l 441:a 438:t 435:o 432:t 426:e 423:h 420:t 415:d 412:o 409:i 406:r 403:e 400:p 394:n 391:i 388:a 385:t 382:r 379:e 376:c 370:a 364:r 361:e 358:v 355:o 349:e 346:s 343:a 340:e 337:s 334:i 331:d 325:e 322:h 319:t 313:g 310:n 307:i 304:p 301:o 298:l 295:e 292:v 289:e 286:d 280:s 277:t 274:c 271:e 268:j 265:b 262:u 259:s 253:f 250:o 244:r 241:e 238:b 235:m 232:u 229:n 223:= 220:e 217:c 214:n 211:e 208:d 205:i 202:c 199:n 196:I 178:( 123:) 117:( 112:) 108:( 98:· 91:· 84:· 77:· 50:. 20:)

Index

Person-time

verification
improve this article
adding citations to reliable sources
"Incidence" epidemiology
news
newspapers
books
scholar
JSTOR
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Dengue fever
Cambodia
epidemiology
medical condition
Prevalence § Difference between prevalence and incidence
prevalence
proportion
HIV
Attack rate
Attributable risk
Rate ratio



"Measures of Disease Frequency: Prevalence and Incidence"
doi
10.1159/000286345
PMID

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