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Once a firm's current earnings become known, the information content should be quickly digested by investors and incorporated into the efficient market price. However, it has long been known that this is not exactly what happens. For firms that report good news in quarterly earnings, their abnormal
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Bernard & Thomas (1989) and
Bernard & Thomas (1990) provided a comprehensive summary of PEAD research. According to Bernard & Thomas (1990), PEAD patterns can be viewed as including two components. The first component is a positive autocorrelation between seasonal difference (i.e.,
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security returns tend to drift upwards for at least 60 days following their earnings announcement. Similarly, firms that report bad news in earnings tend to have their abnormal security returns drift downwards for a similar period. This phenomenon is called post-announcement drift.
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forecast errors – the difference between the actual returns and forecasted returns) that is strongest for adjacent quarters, being positive over the first three lag quarters. Second, there is a negative auto correlation between seasonal differences that are four quarters apart.
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Bernard, V. L., & Thomas, J. K. (1990). Evidence that stock prices do not fully reflect the implications of current earnings for future earnings. Journal of
Accounting and Economics, 13(4), 305-340
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The phenomenon can be explained with a number of hypotheses. The most widely accepted explanation for the effect is investor under-reaction to earnings announcements.
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Bernard, V. L., & Thomas, J. K. (1989). Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift: Delayed Price
Response or Risk Premium? Journal of Accounting Research, 27, 1-36.
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Dharmesh, V. K., & Nakul, S. (1995). contemporary issues in accounting. Post earnings announcement drift., ed 5th, p. 269.
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Do
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