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this 5th step from the 4th. Also it is quite hard to explain this 5th step with the very clear (though maybe faulty) logic behind the second, third and forth step. If the sentence is to be left I would try to find some sort of research backing it up. While the part about ageing in the world is relevant I would suggest not calling it the fifth step. More relevant to the article seems Van de Kaas ideas about a second demographic transition (even though it is somewhat different in character).
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small subsets, or new religions. Future stages of the DTM will simply be showing the dominance of these belief systems as they out reproduce those that don't have strong beliefs regarding the number of children one should have. For DTM to have any ability to predict future birth rates the demographers must show that these belief systems cannot exist, or they must determine their size and growth rates so that they can properly compensate.
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it must, given the time-delay of fertility effects on population), its fertility dropped off precipitously in a scant two generations, from 5-6 per woman to under replacement. And this in a country that was just barely emerging from dirt-poor feudalism (i.e. certainly "less-developed" by any standard).
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I have gone through the article and added references and removed many citation needed tags. I think that someone has probably gone through the article and put in many tags when there are references to substantiate what is a fairly well accepted model. It must be noted that the DTM is only a model and
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This section could not be more wrong. The demographic transition is nowhere more dramatically evident than in less-developed countries like China and India. China in particular underwent one of the fastest, most striking demographic transitions ever. Although China's population is still growing (as
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I really disagree with utmost belief, of the idea of including the 5th Stage in the DTM. It is a theory that explains demographic transformation/Changes from High birth rates and Death rates to Low birth rates and death rates period. And the Low birth and Death rates are xhibited in Stage 4, so why
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Demographers have not shown that a belief system that encourages large numbers of children per couple/person cannot exist (Large Family is Good religion). These belief systems must be found and quantified in order to predict future birth rates. They might be associated with main stream religions as
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Subsistence farming and obstacles posed by title are legitimate aspects that characterize transitions in countries with lopsided development, in contrast to previous economic transitions in Europe. This section should be better explained and expanded but it is connected to the topic, as one of the
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I would also really object to the statement that it is widely accepted that a fifth step is needed, first in general the entire theory is somewhat outdated and seems to be not reasweatylly used in contemporary demographic research and more importantly I don’t see what in a major way distinguishes
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I've put it back - see the history. Basically what happened is that a vandal made some changes to the article that were not in the stage 2 section. Someone reverted those changes, but while they were being reverted, the vandal removed the stage two section. MediaWiki didn't take this as an edit
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I remember that some geographers and economists discussed the possibility of adding a Stage 5 to the model. This would include highly developed countries like Sweden that have seen their birth rates fall below their death rates, leading to negative natural population growth.
221:...birth rates remain high in some nations, particularly Saudi Arabia, despite great increases in prosperity, probably partly as a result of government policy and partly as a result of the limited need and opportunity for mothers to work.
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main criticisms of the DT model is that it doesn't so neatly apply to these other countries. So I will restore that section, but welcome the input of other editors about it. I also made a slight change to the intro sentence.
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the article says that there are no countries still in stage 1. this is completely untrue, as developing countries such as ethiopia, bangladesh, some rainforest tribes, and other poor african countries are still in stage 1.
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Since fertility is highly heritable, the regime of low birth rates can only be temporary. Long term, genetic drives to reproduce will get stronger until people are having as many children as they can afford to support.
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The first sentence of the entry should describe the concept, not the model. The description of the detailed model could follow. However, references to the original sources are needed. Who developed this 5 stage model?
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The information of stage five is incorrect according to current information. Stage 5 is a stage in which the natural growth further declines to a point where, there is no longer a avarege of 2 childs per household.
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in some parts of the body of the article. The article currently only has six unique citation sources, with much of the information in the article not supported by specific refences. There also seems to be some
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279:. Stage 1 of the model, for example, seems to apply only to agricultural societies (where birth and death rates are high), and does not reflect the situation of pre-agricultural (
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While we're at it, I think we need to expand the criticism section. The DTM places all societies along a linear scale of development, measured against the standards of modern
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does not purport to say what will really happen in the future, it is only a suggestion giving an explanation as to what has happened in Europe and may happen elsewhere.
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Isn't it now accepted that there is a need for another stage other than the origonal 3. But why a 5th? Is there any substantial difference between stage 4 and 5?
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As can be seen on the image at the top of this article, it comes from the website "ourworldindata.org". However, this image has now been updated on this website:
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conflict because changes were being made to two different sections of the article, so it accepted both changes. It sounds complicated but that's what happened.
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No, they are in stage 2, their mortality rates have fallen substantially. However, Bangladesh is in Stage 3 and will soon be in Stage 4, its TFR is 2.85 (see
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I'm extremely sceptical about this claim - for one thing, the most recent TFR reported for
England and Wales is substantially higher than the European average.
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I didn't fix it myself in case some expert thinks I'm wrong, and anyway, I don't know which to delete (or whether to combine the two somehow...)
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Stage 3 has the birth rate still falling and the gap between the two rates is still reasonably large, so perhaps this would make better sense:
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I've added article tags for suspected original research and insufficient references. I've also added in-line tags for lack of citations and
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I've added further tags to the "Stage 4" and Stage 5" sections. Again, these sections seem to be unsubstantiated and composed largely of
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De Soto makes no connection between his work and the demographic transition. Source for "as one of the main criticisms of the DT model".
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https://web.archive.org/20071023172810/http://www.bbc.co.uk:80/schools/gcsebitesize/geography/population/popchangestructurerev5.shtml
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When you have finished reviewing my changes, you may follow the instructions on the template below to fix any issues with the URLs.
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This article is or was the subject of a Wiki
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1005:. As you can see, the graph for stage 5 is a little different. Maybe this image should be updated here as well.
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to delete these "External links modified" talk page sections if they want to de-clutter talk pages, but see the
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to delete these "External links modified" talk page sections if they want to de-clutter talk pages, but see the
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to delete these "External links modified" talk page sections if they want to de-clutter talk pages, but see the
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Keith
Montgomery has given permission for the contents of this page to be moved into Knowledge (XXG).
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before doing mass systematic removals. This message is updated dynamically through the template
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before doing mass systematic removals. This message is updated dynamically through the template
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before doing mass systematic removals. This message is updated dynamically through the template
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Anyway the article could do with more work and references. I hope my amendments are OK.
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The first bullet point in the Stage 3 section effectively has the same sentence twice:
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If you found an error with any archives or the URLs themselves, you can fix them with
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do we need stage 5, we will change the model and will lose its originality. Otikal
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Still no Stage 2. I'll see if I can get to adding it later, if I have the time.
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If you wish to start a new discussion or revive an old one, please do so on the
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https://web.archive.org/web/20110514001827/http://demoscope.ru/weekly/pril.php
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So we would have a stage five without a "stage four" , ... blah indeed --
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The conclusions presented in that passage look like speculation to me (see
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after the link to keep me from modifying it. Alternatively, you can add
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https://populationeducation.org/what-demographic-transition-model/
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to keep me off the page altogether. I made the following changes:
283:) societies, where birth and death rates were typically low.--
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Stage 1 is high birth, high death rates in rough equilibrium.
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When you have finished reviewing my changes, please set the
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http://pages.uwc.edu/keith.montgomery/Demotrans/demtran.htm
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Stage 4 is low birth, low death rates in rough equilibrium.
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https://www.urpress.com/store/viewItem.asp?idProduct=14608
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for additional information. I made the following changes:
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for additional information. I made the following changes:
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Wiki
Education assignment: Adult Development Spring 2023
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I have just added archive links to one external link on
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Tagged for original research and insufficient references
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Looking at table 4.5 on page 106 in Livi-Bacci (2001)
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List of countries and territories by fertility rate
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456:"Non-applicability to less-developed countries"
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271:. This contradicts contemporary approaches to
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375:Stage 3 is medium birth, low death rates.
345:What's the difference between 3 and 4? --
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407:A Concise History of World Population
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104:What has happened to Stage 2?!
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18:Talk:Demographic transition
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827:Hello fellow Wikipedians,
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70:no countries in Stage 1?
968:Thanks for the input!
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273:Sociocultural evolution
228:wp:No original research
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42:of past discussions.
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384:~Katherine~
185:Ultramarine
36:This is an
1211:BenMaestas
1125:References
1060:Madchester
976:BenMaestas
923:Report bug
781:Report bug
298:Cleaned up
171:Giovanni33
146:my message
77:Danbrown99
1325:CDSFortin
1313:CDSFortin
906:this tool
899:this tool
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757:this tool
642:Cheers. —
636:this tool
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490:Johntaves
483:Stage LFG
327:stage 3/4
308:SuzanneKn
250:Beejaypii
232:Beejaypii
61:Archive 1
1227:PrimeBOT
1182:PrimeBOT
1092:unsigned
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1053:Stage 5
998:Hello,
836:my edit
697:checked
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652::Online
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39:archive
1072:Melaen
705:failed
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411:Pondle
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1067:Blah
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16:<
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