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importance of real estate on business cycles. One example is Leamer's paper "Housing is the business cycle" which has several hundred citations. Thats a lot in the academic world. Iocavelleo was studying the effect of monetary policy on housing prices in early 2000. Most influential paper on the effect of asset prices such as land on business cycle fluctuation was published in 1997 (Kiyotaki and Moore Credit cycles). Since it is a false claim I see no reason to include.
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real estate bubbles in general, then perhaps it belongs here, not in the U.S. housing bubble article. It is also possible for a site to contain useful content, while still being a
Knowledge (XXG) spammer. Just look at the history to see how many times they keep adding their own site to the external links. Ben Jones' blog is the most widely read housing bubble blog, but it doesn't keep showing up in the external links.
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I am deleting the claim that real estate bubbles were not important in main stream economics. It is absolutely, less attention was given to the topic 20 years ago, but modern business cycle theory is about 30 years old. There are several prominent papers written in the past 15 years that stress the
582:
The fact one article has links to blogs is not a good reason for adding them to another article. By that argument, as long as there is even one linkspam on
Knowledge (XXG), it is OK to add more. Links to blogs are generally discouraged unless they offer especially informative or relevant content, so
433:
Nice article, but I'm not sure that it is suffiently world rather than US orientated, as most of the various ratios I've never heard of before (despite being involved in housing in the UK for a great many years) and I therefore expect they are in use in the US only - indeed at least one of them only
441:
I wrote a dissertation for a master's degree that included evaluating the income/price ratio, and the
Building Societys Association (or was it the Council For Mortgage Lenders - cannot remember) economist criticised it by saying it took no account of the actual cost of the mortgage payments (which
409:
article. Most blogs are about country or local housing bubbles, so don't belong in an article about the real estate bubble phenomenon in general. If housingpanic, for example, is about the U.S. housing bubble, then it belongs at the end of the U.S. housing bubble article, not here. If it is about
295:
This paticular link isn't too bad as far as ads go. And I do think they have some content (though I think most of their information is already covered in this
Knowledge (XXG) article). But the fact that they are unwilling to sign up for an account and discuss the link's merits makes me question
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That's because there is much more demand to live in Sao Paulo and Rio De
Janeiro. However, if this rise in property prices would be the case for the whole country (and on the condition that it is much higher than the general inflation), then this would mean a real estate bubble.
977:: Peter C.B. Phillips & Shu-Ping Shi & Jun Yu, 2013. "Testing for Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes of Exuberance and Collapse in the S&P 500," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1914, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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I have added two ratios used in the UK: the rental yield and the
Affordability Index. The Affordability Index is published by the Nationwide Building Society and Rowntrees, and when I've got time I will search out these links and add them.
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3. Instead of decomposing the house prices into a valuation component and a leverage component, the aforementioned methods focus on identifying the unique dynamic characteristics of speculative bubbles reflected in housing
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in the UK usually vary with interest rates), and I agree with him. However it does fluctuate more than the
Affordability Index, and thus it helps to add drama and sensation to journalists and book-writers accounts.
564:
I reverted the site you added because it was just a list of links, and it appeared that you were were trying to promote the site and its ads rather than to improve the article. In general it's better to add
928:(4) Phillips, Peter CB, Shuping Shi, and Jun Yu. "Testing for multiple bubbles: Historical episodes of exuberance and collapse in the S&P 500." International Economic Review 56.4 (2015b): 1043-1078.
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I wouldn't be surprised if the journalist included the first few blogs she could find at random, so I don't think that's a sufficient critera for linking them here. But I'm willing to defer to
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A seperate comment about rental yields: statistics of these are difficult to get hold of, and it would be great if people would add links to various sites where they can be obtained online.
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For example, Rio de
Janeiro property prices rose almost 100% from jan/2008 to jan/2011, São Paulo prices rose 79,2%, while the official inflation index (IPCA) was just 17% over the period.
946:
2. The real time strategy proposed by
Phillips, Shi and Yu (2015a,b) has been used to provide "exuberance indicator" for 23 national housing markets by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
919:(1) Phillips, Peter CB, Yangru Wu, and Jun Yu. "Explosive behavior in the 1990s Nasdaq: When did exuberance escalate asset values?." International economic review 52.1 (2011): 201-226.
949:
Reference: (1) Pavlidis, Efthymios, et al. "Episodes of exuberance in housing markets: in search of the smoking gun." The
Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics (2013): 1-31.
931:(5) Homm, Ulrich, and Jörg Breitung. "Testing for speculative bubbles in stock markets: a comparison of alternative methods." Journal of Financial Econometrics 10.1 (2012): 198-231.
630:
Maybe I just don't see it... but what is a good or bad price-rent ratio? I see the handy dandy formula, but is a 1 good? a 20? a 100? What ratio indicates if it is over-valued?
653:
has been filling up with link spam again. I removed most of it. Please be on constant lookout for link spammers adding their sites to the external links section. Thank you. --
455:
I've recently read a book about Bubbles by an American banker that includes discussion of UK and US housing bubbles, and when I've found out the name and author will add it.
925:(3) Phillips, Peter CB, Shuping Shi, and Jun Yu. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory Of Real‐Time Detectors." International Economic Review 56.4 (2015a): 1079-1134.
232:
Someone added housepricecrash.co.uk to the external links section again. Is that spam or a legitimate site? How can you tell (besides the fact that it keeps getting added)?
532:
Hi, why is it unacceptable to link to news sites that maintain daily lists of relevant articles? I noticed a large number of links to blogs and other sites under the
316:
There are several chronic external link spammers. Please remove them if you see them. Please be careful not to throw the baby out with the bath water, however. The
250:
that I use as a standard for determining whether or not a link is spam. This particular link I removed because it matched the following critera from the list:
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No offence, but I would not have thought that the pop books from the "Rich Dad Poor Dad" author were worth adding to the bibliography, and I have read them.
282:
20. Text of the link goes beyond describing the contents to actively encouraging you to read it. For example, including text such as, "Read more about in " (
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922:(2) Phillips, Peter CB, and Jun Yu. "Dating the timeline of financial bubbles during the subprime crisis." Quantitative Economics 2.3 (2011): 455-491.
209:
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To be consistent with what I just said, perhaps the two CEPR external links should be removed from this article because of its U.S.-only content?
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500:(2000). Rich Dad, Poor Dad: What the Rich Teach Their Kids About Money—That the Poor and Middle Class Do Not!, New York: Warner Business Books.
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This article seems a bit mangled due to too line breaks in links in the markup. Have fixed some of it, but references still need work.
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We hope Wikipedians on this talk page can take advantage of these comments and improve the quality of the article accordingly.
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has some unusual places: Antarctica, North Korea, Vatican City to name a few. I removed some of them once but they reappeared.
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940:(7) "Hot property market … irrational or not?", Sunday Star Times, April 2015, By Peter Phillips and Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy,
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This article is or was the subject of a Wiki Education Foundation-supported course assignment. Further details are available
494:, have got either nothing or so very little I didnt notice it about housing bubbles, and I think they ought to be deleted:
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We believe Dr. Shi has expertise on the topic of this article, since he has published relevant scholarly research:
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934:(6) "Warning signs of future asset bubbles", The Strait Times, April 2011, By Peter C.B. Phillips and Jun Yu,
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507:. Burton R. Malkiel (2004). A Random Walk Down Wall Street, 8th ed., New York: W. W. Norton and Company, Inc.
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on Knowledge (XXG). If you would like to participate, please visit the project page, where you can join
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Wouldn't it be nice to enrich this article with references to older bubbles, like the one before the
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1. There is a big literature on real-time bubble detection is missing. Please see reference below.
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They have reappeared and Australia (with one the highest property prices in the world) is missing.
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This article was the subject of a Wiki Education Foundation-supported course assignment, between
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14. User adds links that have been previously removed, without discussing on the talk page.
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John Allen Paulos (2003). A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market, New York: Basic Books.
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is absent. Hence, speculation cannot be the sole reason for the appearance of bubbles.
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Wiki Education assignment: Research Process and Methodology - SU24 - Sect 200 - Thu
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There may be other books which I have not read which also ought to be removed.
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Calverley, John P., Bubbles and how to survive them, N. Brealey, 2004
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http://korora.econ.yale.edu/phillips/pubs/op-ed/hot-property_150412.pdf
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topic, but it looks like there are different rules for this page...?
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Research: Housing Bubbles Cannot be the Result of Speculation Alone
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4. User has made only one edit, which consisted of inserting a link
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http://korora.econ.yale.edu/phillips/news/warning-signs_110426.pdf
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I removed many of the blog links from the article you mentioned.
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Thank you, it occurred to me that the formulations of the type:
405:'s judgment and am not suggesting that he remove them from the
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Refrain from attributing the appearance of housing bubbles to
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6. The majority of user's edits are to external links sections
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7. The link is a site that has Google/Yahoo ads (AdSense/SM).
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3. No edit summary (other than, perhaps /* External links */)
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Agreed, although some of those blogs are included at
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Wiki Education Foundation-supported course assignment
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260:2. User:page and/or User_talk:page are red links (
430:Please dont take this the wrong way, Monkeyman.
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954:http://www.dallasfed.org/institute/houseprice/
284:In this case the editor writes, "a good read"
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841:Within mainstream economics, it can be posed
486:Books in Reference that ought to be deleted
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614:. Recent academic research, discussed in
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162:wow, what an excellent article. Kudos.
729:What about brazilian real estate bubble?
328:are all reputable and relevant sources.
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208:Above undated message substituted from
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115:Knowledge (XXG):WikiProject Economics
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248:How to identify spam and spammers
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830:11:24, 18 December 2013 (UTC)
109:and see a list of open tasks.
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785:01:29, 8 November 2013 (UTC)
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645:Keep a lookout for link spam
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534:United States housing bubble
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895:08:35, 9 January 2014 (UTC)
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1053:C-Class Economics articles
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228:How to identify spam links
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773:list of countries in 2007
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767:List of countries 2007
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481:1857883489
462:Thanks. --
682:Han-Kwang
378:magazine.
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42::
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