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systems that both generate the need for new innovations and ultimately produce and maintain them. More specifically, the systems that comprise the socio-technical paradigm include technology, supply networks, infrastructure, maintenance networks, regulation, cultural meaning as well as user practices and markets. As such, socio-technical transitions can be defined as the multi-dimensional shift from one socio-technical system to another involving changes in both technological and social systems that are intrinsically linked in a feedback loop. Generally speaking, socio-technical transitions are a slow process as technological innovation tends to occur incrementally along fixed trajectories due to the rigidity of economic, social, cultural, infrastructural and regulative norms. This is referred to as path dependency, creating technological 'lock-ins' which prevent innovation that disrupts the status quo. Therefore, the breakthrough and dissemination of technological innovations is dependent on more than their respective benefits, providing an insight into the complexity of the forces and multiple dimensions at play.
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studies they could be presented as having occurred on a different transition path to what was shown. For example, the bicycle could be considered an intermediate transport technology between the horse and the car. Judged from shorter different time-frame this could appear a transition in its own right. Determining the nature of a transition is problematic; when it started and ended, or whether one occurred in the sense of a radical innovation displacing an existing socio-technical regime. The perception of time casts doubt on whether a transition has occurred. If viewed over a long enough period even inert regimes may demonstrate radical change in the end. The MLP has also been criticised by scholars studying sustainability transitions using Social
Practice Theories.
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rental/sharing have been trialled in many cities globally. Also, niche sustainable urban planning concepts such as compact cities, smart growth and transit-oriented development have modestly emerged into sustainably mobility discourse. However, the persistence of the automobility regime due to the general stability of the landscape has resulted in limited, small-scale implementations of these niche innovations. As such, prevailing user preference and cultural values at the landscape level appear to be a major barrier in transport system socio-technical transitions, as they stabilise the automobility regime, disallowing niche innovations to gain a foothold.
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problems to be solved the paradigm exerts an influence on technological change. The pattern of problem solving activity and the direction of progress is the technological trajectory. In similar fashion, Nelson and Winter (,)defined the concept of the 'technological regime' which directs technological change through the beliefs of engineers of what problems to solve. The work of the actors and organisations is the result of organisational and cognitive routines which determines search behaviour. This places boundaries and also trajectories (direction) to those boundaries.
380:. (). Current structural problems are apparent in a range of sectors. Dependency on oil is problematic in the energy sector due to availability, access and contribution to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Transportation is a major user of energy causing significant emission of GHGs. Food production will need to keep pace with an ever-growing world population while overcoming challenges presented by global warming and transportation issues. Incremental change has provided some improvements but a more radical transition is required to achieve a more sustainable future.
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when the process of a system shift is beginning. A breakthrough is occurring when fundamental changes are occurring in existing structures through the interplay of economic, social and cultural forces. Once the rate of change has decreased and a new balance is achieved, stabilization is said to have occurred. A full transition involves an overhaul of existing rules and change of beliefs which takes time, typically spanning at least a generation. This process can be speeded up through seismic, unforeseen events such as war or economic strife.
92:. Alongside the technological advancement, TT considers wider societal changes such as "user practices, regulation, industrial networks (supply, production, distribution), infrastructure, and symbolic meaning or culture". Hughes refers to the 'seamless web' where physical artifacts, organizations, scientific communities, and social practices combine. A technological transition occurs when there is a major shift in these socio-technical configurations.
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transport planners, policy makers and industry actors (e.g. car manufactures). Despite this stability, shifts in the landscape has allowed "cracks" in the regime such as traffic management policy (traffic calming, parking restrictions, etc.), diminishing policy commitment to the regime and industry actors proclaiming awareness of landscape pressures associated with climate change
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Due to the systems approach inherent in the MLP, analysis can be approached from different disciplinary perspectives according to their respective ontologies and priorities. From an urban planning perspective, the framework could be used to pinpoint the barriers and drivers associated with low carbon
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Genus and Coles outlined a number of criticisms against the analysis of technological transitions, in particular when using the MLP. Empirical research on technological transitions occurring now has been limited, with the focus on historic transitions. Depending on the perspective on transition case
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level represents the current structures and practices characterised by dominant rules, institutions and technologies that are self-reinforcing. The socio-technical regime is dynamically stable in the sense that innovation still transpires albeit incrementally and along a predictable trajectory. This
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Geels proposed a similar four-phase approach which draws on the multi-level perspective (MLP) developed by Dutch scholars. Phase one sees the emergence of a novelty, born from the existing regime. Development then occurs in the niche level at phase two. As before, breakthrough then occurs at phase
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is defined as the "locus for radical innovations" where dedicated actors nurture the development of technological novelties. Incubated from market and regulation influences, the niche fosters innovations that differ fundamentally from the prevailing regime and usually require landscape developments
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The
Russian economist Kondratiev proposed that economic growth operated in boom and bust cycles of approximately 50 year periods. These cycles were characterised by periods of expansion, stagnation and recession. The period of expansion is associated with the introduction of a new technology, e.g.
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Diffusion of an innovation is the concept of how it is picked up by society, at what rate and why. The diffusion of a technological innovation into society can be considered in distinct phases. Pre-development is the gestation period where the new technology has yet to make an impact. Take-off is
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This tension between stabilising and destabilising forces is mirrored in the prevailing automobility regime. The regime is stabilised by persistent investment in road projects, lifestyle norms and consumer preferences that perpetuate car use and resistance to major change by vested actors such as
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level is defined as the exogenous, broader contextual developments in deep-seated cultural patterns, macro-economics, macro-politics and spatial structures, potentially arising from shocks associated with wars, economic crisis, natural disaster and political upheaval. Additionally, landscapes are
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developed the concept of 'technical paradigms' and 'technological trajectories'. In considering how engineers work, the technical paradigm is an outlook on the technological problem, a definition of what the problems and solutions are. It charts the idea of specific progress. By identifying the
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Technological developments occur intertwined with societal needs, wants and uses. A technology is adopted and diffused based on this interplay between innovation and societal requirements. Co-evolution has different aspects. As well as the co-evolution of technology and society, aspects between
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In these contexts, niche socio-technical innovations that challenge the assumptions and norms of the regime have been birthed, mainly in the form of local policy and infrastructure initiatives on a city-scale. For example, intermodal travel in the form of bus/bike-rail integration schemes, bike
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Recently, the scope of academic sustainability discourse and investigative focus has broadened beyond the study of technological products, innovations and subsequent transitions. Much of the literature now examines technological artefacts and innovations through a wider scope of socio-technical
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Developed from the work on technological transitions is the field of transition management. Within this is an attempt to shape the direction of change complex socio-technical systems to more sustainable patterns. Whereas work on technological transitions is largely based on historic processes,
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Alongside external influences, internal drivers catalyse diffusion. These include economic factors such as the price performance ration. Socio-technical perspectives focus on the links between disparate social and technological elements. Following the breakthrough, the final phases see the new
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The technological transitions framework does acknowledge the co-evolution and mutual unfolding of societal change alongside technological innovation. However, the socio-technical transitions framework considers a more encompassing view of the interdependent links that technology maintains with
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and information technologies that digitise daily life (e.g. tele-commuting) destabilises the landscape and automobility regime. Conversely, the landscape level is solidified by stabilising forces such as cultural preferences for private ownership, timesaving, autonomy and privacy, as well as
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systems. It has been argued that this contemporary framework has emerged in response to both an increased understanding of the urgency of environmental problems and the recognition that more substantiative transitions are required across multiple interdependent systems to mitigate impacts.
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The multi-level perspective (MLP) is an analytical tool that attempts to deal with this complexity and resistance to change. Focussing on the dynamics of wider transitionary developments as opposed to discrete technological innovations, the MLP concerns itself with socio-technical system
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The study of technological transitions has an impact beyond academic interest. The transitions referred to in the literature may relate to historic processes, such as the transportation transitions studied by Geels, but system changes are required to achieve a safe transition to a
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Freeman and Perez proposed that each cycle consists of pervasive technologies, their production and economic structures that support them. Termed 'techno-economic paradigms', they suggest that the shift from one paradigm to another is the result of emergent new technologies.
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Hughes, T.P., 1987. The evolution of large technological systems. In: Bijker, W.E., Hughes, T.P., Pinch, T. (Eds.), The Social
Construction of Technological Systems: New Directions in the Sociology and History of Technology. Cambridge (MA): MIT Press. pp.
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transport systems to better target policy efforts. To begin, from an urban mobility perspective, the landscape level is currently pressured by both stabilising and destabilising pressures. Namely, Peak Oil, public concern surrounding inaction towards
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transformations, particularly with transitions towards sustainability and resilience. As the name implies, the MLP posits three analytical and heuristic levels on which processes interact and align to result in socio-technical system transformations;
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three. In the parlance of the MLP the new technology, having been developed at the niche level, is in competition with the established regime. To break through and achieve wide diffusion, external factors – 'windows of opportunity' – are required.
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Scientific and engineering communities are central to the development of a technology, but a wide range of actors are involved in a transition. This can include organisations, policy-makers, government, NGOs, special interest groups and others.
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that open windows of opportunity in at the regime level. Therefore, the MLP attributes socio-technical transitions to the interaction of stabilising forces at the regime level with destabilising forces from both the landscape and niche levels.
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described how a paradigm shift is a wholesale shift in the basic understanding of a scientific theory. Examples in science include the change of thought from miasma to germ theory as a cause of disease. Building on this work,
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Geels, F., Monaghan, A., Eames, M. and
Steward, F. , 2008. The feasibility of systems thinking in sustainable consumption and production policy: a report to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, London:
84:(TT) can best be described as a collection of theories regarding how technological innovations occur, the driving forces behind them, and how they are incorporated into society. TT draws on a number of fields, including
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De-alignment and Re-alignment: Weaknesses in the regime sees the advent of competing new technologies leading to a dominant model. (E.g. the automobile replacing the horse as the primary means of land transport).
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had considered that two cycles had occurred in the nineteenth century and third was beginning at the turn of the twentieth. Modern writers, such as
Freeman and Perez outlined five cycles in the modern age:
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Freeman, C. and Perez, C., 1988. Structural crisis of adjustment, business cycles and investment behaviour in Dosi et al
Technical Change and Economic Theory. London: Frances Pinter. pp. 38-66.
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placed the emphasis on non-economic forces as the driver for growth. The human actor, the entrepreneur is seen as the cause of economic development which occurs as a cyclical process.
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car-favouring urban fabric and infrastructure. This is further enhanced by universal pressures of globalisation which presupposes urban mobility to increase flows of goods and people.
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The rate of change will vary over time. For example, the pace of change may be slow at the gestation period (at the niche level) but much more rapid when a breakthrough is occurring.
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Schumpeter, T., 1934. The theory of economic development: an inquiry into profits, capital, credit, interest, and the business cycle. Cambridge, Mass: Harvard
University Press
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Problems external to the system. Such 'problems' are often determined by pressure groups and require wider societal or political backing. An example is environmental concerns.
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Geels, F. W., 2002. Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes: a multi-level perspective and a case study. Research Policy 31 pp. 257-1273
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Rip, A. and R. Kemp., 1998. Technological change. In S. Rayner and E. Malone (eds.) Human
Choices and Climate Change, Vol. 2, 327-399. Battelle, Columbus,Ohio.
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Shove E, Walker G, 2007, "CAUTION! Transitions ahead: politics, practice, and sustainable transition management" Environment and
Planning A 39(4) 763-770
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The nature of transitions varies and the differing qualities result in multiple pathways occurring. Geels and Schot defined five transition paths:
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Internal technical problems in the existing regime. Those that cannot be solved by refinement of existing technologies act as a driver for the new.
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Rotmans, J., Kemp, R. and van Asselt, M. 2001. More evolution than revolution: transition management in public policy. Foresight, 3 (1) pp. 15–31.
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Genus , A., and Coles, A-M., 2008. Rethinking the multi-level perspective of technological transitions. Research Policy. 37 (9) pp. 1436-1445
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Technological substitution: An incumbent technology is replaced by a radical innovation resulting in a new socio-technical regime.
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beyond the direct influence of actors, yet stimulate and exert pressure on them at the regime and niche levels. Finally, the
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Geels, F.W. and Schot, J.W., 2007, 'Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways , Research Policy, 36 (3), pp.399-417
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Moody, J.B., and Nogrady, B., 2011. The Sixth Wave: How to Succeed in a Resource-Limited World. New York: Random House
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Re-configuration: When multiple, interlinked technologies are replaced by a similarly linked alternative set.
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Nelson, R.R., Winter, S.G., 1982. An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change. Cambridge (MA); Bellknap Press.
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A number of possible circumstances can act as windows of opportunity for the diffusion of new technologies:
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Nelson, R.R., Winter, S.G., 1977. In search of useful theory of innovation. Research Policy 6 (1) pp. 36-76
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Dosi, G., 1982. Technological paradigms and technological trajectories. Research Policy 11 (3) pp. 147-162.
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Transformation: A socio-technical regime that changes without the emergence of a monopolising technology.
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Strategic advantage. Competition with rivals may necessitate innovation
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steam power or the microprocessor. At the time of publication,
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Reproduction: Ongoing change occurring in the regime level.
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Oil, Mass Production and the Consumer Society (1930–1980)
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Victorian Prosperity: Age of steam and Rail (1830–1880)
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1073:
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1066:
1058:
1052:
1050:
1044:
1043:
1041:
1040:
1035:
1030:
1025:
1020:
1015:
1013:Postpositivism
1010:
1005:
1000:
995:
990:
985:
980:
975:
973:Antipositivism
970:
964:
962:
956:
955:
953:
952:
947:
946:
945:
943:and technology
935:
929:
927:
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890:
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867:
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858:
849:
840:
828:
826:Everett (1962)
819:
807:
797:
788:
779:
761:
749:
740:
731:
722:
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695:
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612:
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31:
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1477:
1476:Technoscience
1474:
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1449:
1447:
1446:Media studies
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1397:
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1387:
1385:
1384:Early adopter
1382:
1380:
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1367:
1365:
1362:
1360:
1357:
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1354:Co-production
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1203:communication
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1199:
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1188:
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1185:Pseudoscience
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1133:Boundary-work
1131:
1129:
1128:Bibliometrics
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1120:
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1049:
1045:
1039:
1038:Transhumanism
1036:
1034:
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1029:
1026:
1024:
1021:
1019:
1016:
1014:
1011:
1009:
1006:
1004:
1001:
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994:
991:
989:
986:
984:
981:
979:
976:
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961:
957:
951:
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944:
941:
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928:
926:
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916:
913:
911:
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903:
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888:
883:
881:
876:
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869:
868:
865:
853:
850:
844:
841:
835:
833:
829:
823:
820:
814:
812:
808:
801:
798:
792:
789:
786:(Geels 2012).
783:
780:
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541:
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183:Giovanni Dosi
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52:
48:
44:
38:
37:
32:This article
30:
21:
20:
1691:Associations
1526:criticism of
1510:
1436:Leapfrogging
1419:linear model
1305:Team science
1295:Scientocracy
1218:Neo-colonial
968:Anthropocene
852:
843:
822:
800:
791:
782:
777:(Geels 2012)
743:
734:
725:
716:
707:
698:
689:
656:
647:
642:(Geels 2010)
638:
633:(Geels 2018)
629:
624:(Geels 2005)
606:
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588:
579:
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59:October 2022
56:
33:
1536:theories of
1521:and society
1517:Technology
1511:transitions
1501:determinism
1496:convergence
1471:Technocracy
1253:controversy
1239:Scientific
1223:post-normal
1168:Metascience
1138:Consilience
1123:Antiscience
988:Neo-Luddism
983:Fuzzy logic
178:Thomas Kuhn
145:(1770–1830)
1718:Categories
1674:Technology
1626:science of
1621:history of
1506:revolution
1414:disruptive
1404:Innovation
1399:Hype cycle
1344:Technology
1315:ecological
1288:skepticism
1278:misconduct
1263:enterprise
1081:scientific
1008:Positivism
978:Empiricism
960:Philosophy
439:References
388:Criticisms
135:Kondratiev
122:Schumpeter
114:Schumpeter
43:improve it
1581:Factor 10
1409:diffusion
1248:consensus
1243:community
1208:education
1048:Sociology
1023:Scientism
902:Economics
479:798531922
224:landscape
47:verifying
1701:Scholars
1696:Journals
1686:Category
1660:Portals
1541:transfer
1531:dynamics
1481:feminist
1283:priority
1268:literacy
1228:rhetoric
1194:Science
1158:Logology
397:See also
1664:Science
1346:studies
1258:dissent
1198:citizen
1115:studies
1113:Science
1060:Social
925:History
96:Origins
41:Please
1558:Policy
1491:change
1424:system
1273:method
1213:normal
805:DEFRA.
477:
467:
219:regime
506:51-82
229:niche
1429:user
1332:STEM
1233:wars
475:OCLC
465:ISBN
45:by
1720::
831:^
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558:^
520:^
487:^
473:.
447:^
886:e
879:t
872:v
481:.
72:)
66:(
61:)
57:(
39:.
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