470:. Known instances of such fraud are very rare, with one database finding 491 cases of absentee ballot fraud from 2000 to 2012, a period in which billions of votes were cast. A Washington Post analysis found that officials identified just 372 possible cases of double voting or voting on behalf of deceased people out of about 14.6 million votes cast by mail in the 2016 and 2018 general elections, or 0.0025 percent. All mailed-in ballots in all states are verified before they are counted, regardless of whether they are cast in an all-mail state, said Wendy Underhill, direction of elections and redistricting at the NCSL.
561:
to commit to abiding by the results of the election, the
Attorney General's embrace of the President's groundless electoral fraud claims, and the unprecedented deployment of federal agents to put down leftwing protests, underscore the extreme lengths to which President Trump may be willing to go in order to stay in office." The report's intention was to inspire the necessary changes to ensure a fair election in 2020. "These risks can be mitigated; the worst outcomes of the exercises are far from a certainty. The purpose of this report is not to frighten, but to spur all stakeholders to action."
25:
528:. The first game investigated a scenario in which the outcome of the election remained unclear from election night and throughout gameplay. The results from three states are in contention and ballots are destroyed in one of the states, making it unclear who should have won that state. Neither campaign is willing to concede.
257:. As with the 2020 effort, the 2024 academic exercises determined that the greatest threat to a peaceful and routine transfer of presidential power comes from the incumbent president and that, in Biden's case, the threat is amplified by his frequent violation of the Constitution and his claims that former president
560:
In August 2020, TIP released a report outlining its findings and recommendations. The report stated, "We assess that the
President Trump is likely to contest the result by both legal and extra-legal means, in an attempt to hold onto power. Recent events, including the President's own unwillingness
465:
Trump also claimed that mail balloting leads to widespread fraud, making a distinction between universal mail-in Voting and absentee voting. "Absentee
Ballots are a great way to vote for the many senior citizens, military, and others who can't get to the polls on Election Day. These ballots are very
569:
The TIP report sparked a national conversation about risks to the 2020 election and transition and means of mitigating those risks. The TIP team admitted that they didn't game out two areas of interest: post-election legal actions and media, including social media, actions after the election. These
661:
Since the election, Trump raised money allegedly for legal costs related to overturning the election. Trump sources claim hundreds of millions in donations to date. However, the fund raising materials spell out that the vast majority of donations are not going toward funding litigation to overturn
540:
The third scenario started with an
Electoral College victory for President Trump (286 to 252), but a popular vote win (52% to 47%) for former Vice President Biden. In this scenario Biden refused to concede, convinced the Democratic governors of two states that Trump won to send separate slates of
449:
A day later, Trump tweeted about postponing the 2020 election, spurring concerns that he might attempt to delay the election due to unspecified and unsubstantiated voter fraud. "With
Universal Mail-In Voting (not Absentee Voting, which is good), 2020 will be the most INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT
434:
TIP was motivated to do a short term project by their assessment that the
November elections would "be marked by a chaotic legal and political landscape. We also assess that President Trump is likely to contest the result by both legal and extra-legal means, in an attempt to hold onto power."
500:
were "involved in a politically motivated attack on the efficiency of the Postal
Service," adding that the 14 states requesting the injunction "demonstrated that this attack on the Postal Service is likely to irreparably harm the states' ability to administer the 2020 general election."
695:
Shortly before
Twitter disabled Trump's account on January 8, 2021, he finally conceded the election in a tweet, saying, "To all of those who have asked, I will not be going to the Inauguration on January 20th," and "new administration will be inaugurated on January 20"
430:
are seen as a hallmark of republican democracy in the United States. Even when there have been rancorous differences between the political parties and their presidential nominees, the defeated party nominee has always conceded the presidency to the electoral winner.
1575:
1145:"With Universal Mail-In Voting (not Absentee Voting, which is good), 2020 will be the most INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT Election in history. It will be a great embarrassment to the USA. Delay the Election until people can properly, securely and safely vote???"
1072:
The peaceful transfer of presidential power from one administration to the next is a hallmark of
American democracy. This transition, both peaceful and symbolic of continuity and change, continues to amaze the world and represents the best of American
1424:"Absentee Ballots are a great way to vote for the many senior citizens, military, and others who can't get to the polls on Election Day. These ballots are very different from 100% Mail-In Voting, which is 'RIPE for FRAUD,' and shouldn't be allowed!"
612:. The final election results of several states are the subject of intense court fights that disrupt voting by the Electoral College and certification of the election by Congress. Eventually these fights end up being argued before the Supreme Court.
466:
different from 100% Mail-In Voting, which is 'RIPE for FRAUD,' and shouldn't be allowed!" Fact checkers say there is no evidence of substantial fraud associated with mail voting. Many studies show that postal voting has an extremely small risk of
650:
to the White House to discuss having the legislature ignore the loss at the ballot box and certify electors favorable to him. Biden won
Michigan by 150,000 votes. Such a move would be unprecedented and may be illegal according to Michigan law.
636:
249:), ran over the course of ten days in June 2024 and involved more than 50 former high-ranking federal officials, retired military and law enforcement officers, attorneys, journalists, and academics, with former Democratic U.S. Senator
1387:"Let's be clear: Trump does not have the ability to delay the election. Our elections are enshrined in the Constitution. The Constitution also says that if the date of the election is to be changed, it must be changed by Congress"
376:, a former member of the California State Assembly and a retired U.S. Army intelligence officer experienced in war gaming, Mike Howell, of the Heritage Foundation, and Adam Ellwanger, an academic. Participants included:
593:, assembled a team of constitutional scholars and experts in other relevant fields (election law, foreign affairs, law enforcement, and media) and performed a similar set of exercises. They gamed out three scenarios:
676:
In addition, on January 6, 2021, the day Congress met to certify the votes of the Electoral College, Donald Trump held a rally in front of the White House calling for a march on the Capital which resulted in a
453:
In the history of the United States, the presidential election has never been postponed, and the president does not have the legal power to delay an election, whose date is set by an 1845 law. Representative
547:. The final scenario explored a narrow Biden win where he leads with less than 1% of the popular vote and has a slim lead at 278 electoral votes. The Trump campaign sows chaos but Senate Republicans and the
364:
The Transition Integrity Project (TIP) was launched "out of concern that the Trump Administration may seek to manipulate, ignore, undermine or disrupt the 2020 presidential election and transition process."
688:, The Speaker of the House, and many Democrats called for one article of Impeachment against Donald J. Trump for, "Incitement of Insurrection". Donald Trump was impeached by the House of Representatives
2540:
632:
Donald Trump lost the popular vote by a wide margin (over 7 million votes nationally) and the electoral college by the same margin as Trump won the White House in 2016: 306/232 in Biden's favor.
504:
On September 25, 2020, Donald Trump repeated his concerns that "ballots were a disaster" and he refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power, insisting on a "continuation of power" instead.
1086:
606:. Biden eventually wins 26 states and Washington, D.C., which gives him 342 Electoral College votes, but the announcement is delayed for days or weeks to allow time for counting mail-in ballots.
1677:
541:
electors to the Electoral College, encouraged three states to threaten secession, and convinced the House of Representatives to refuse to certify the election and declare Biden the victor.
639:
throughout the country. To date, they won one case and 59 were dropped by his own attorneys, dismissed by courts before evidence was presented, or had rulings against Trump's efforts.
481:
will result in widespread voter fraud. Democrats see this as Trump laying the groundwork for a contested election. This outcome could be especially likely in the event of a so-called "
534:. Biden wins both the Electoral College and the popular vote. Trump alleges fraud and takes steps to benefit himself and his family but ultimately hands the White House over to Biden.
1226:
681:. This was the first such attack on the U.S. Capitol since the British burned the Capital in 1814. Violence was also one of the possible outcomes that the TIP report suggested.
635:
Having lost the popular vote and failing to secure the 270 electoral college votes required to win the Presidency, Trump claimed widespread fraud. He ordered his legal team to
1128:
No, I'm not going to just say yes. I'm not going to say no, and I didn't last time either. What I'm saying is that I will tell you at the time. I'll keep you in suspense. OK?
372:
was organized out of a concern, raised by the 2020 effort, that an incumbent president always presents the greatest threat to a routine transfer of power. It was designed by
2641:
485:", where Trump appears to have won on election night but actually loses after all of the mail-in ballots have been tallied. Democrats also became concerned that Trump might
738:
2667:
1033:
878:
1691:
2615:
2018:
777:
459:
600:. Trump eventually wins 32 states and 322 Electoral College votes, but the announcement is delayed for days or weeks to allow time for counting mail-in ballots.
1356:
2377:
1884:
825:"Transition Integrity Project Member Talks about this Initiative; Coronavirus Pandemic Update from Around the World; Unity as Trump Threatens Democracy"
713:
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1302:
911:
493:
486:
228:
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1993:
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2752:
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1824:
678:
402:
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450:
Election in history. It will be a great embarrassment to the USA. Delay the Election until people can properly, securely and safely vote???"
427:
232:
1200:
1144:
35:
1453:
799:
1600:
1011:
689:
474:
415:
274:
2300:
1576:"Minuscule number of potentially fraudulent ballots in states with universal mail voting undercuts Trump claims about election risks"
834:
54:
369:
241:
72:
2196:
1909:
642:
The day after Trump's lawyers abandoned their court case in Michigan courts, Trump summoned Michigan state Senate Majority Leader
856:
467:
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2119:
2326:
1112:
767:
586:
324:
302:
2327:"Trump invites Michigan Republican leaders to meet him at White House as he escalates attempts to overturn election results"
1967:
1178:
227:, polling experts and former federal and state government officials. These exercises examined potential disruptions to the
2515:"Trump raises $ 495 million since mid-October, including a massive haul fueled by misleading appeals about election fraud"
1678:"Federal Judge Rules Trump and Louis DeJoy Waged 'Politically Motivated Attack' Against USPS, Will Rescind Recent Changes"
333:
289:
2403:
2044:
1528:
2757:
2222:
1248:
439:
219:. The first, ran during June 2020 and involved more than 100 current and former senior government and campaign leaders,
2351:
1273:
1055:
406:
273:, a law professor at Georgetown and former Pentagon senior official, and Nils Gilman, a former vice chancellor of the
50:
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eventually signal that they accept Biden's win. Trump refuses to leave and is removed by the Secret Service.
446:
in July, 2020, Donald Trump refused to say whether or not he would accept the results of the 2020 election.
1933:
2432:
1720:
235:. TIP was not an organization, but rather a short-term project run under the auspices of the organization
2094:
1274:"An act to establish a uniform time for holding elections for electors of Presidents and Vice Presidents"
462:, noted that only the Congress has the authority to change laws that deal with the date of the election.
670:," which allows the money to be spent on virtually anything including direct payments to Trump himself.
579:
548:
482:
281:. There were "more than 100" participants in the Transition Integrity Project's exercises, including:
1850:
1427:
1390:
1148:
739:"A Bipartisan group secretly gathered to game out a contested Trump–Biden election. It wasn't pretty"
315:
590:
393:
278:
1001:
2698:
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1334:
714:"Bipartisan Group Predicts 'Violence' When Trump Loses Election and Refuses to Leave His House"
1941:
1858:
1772:
972:
478:
380:
311:
250:
236:
157:
1764:
46:
2616:"Full text: Draft of articles of impeachment against Trump for 'incitement of insurrection'"
800:"How The 2020 Election Is A 'Stress Test' Of American Democracy : Fresh Air : NPR"
1423:
1152:
912:"Transition Integrity Project: Preventing a disrupted presidential election and transition"
2642:"Pelosi urges lawmakers to 'return to Washington this week' as calls for impeachment grow"
2541:"Trump unveils $ 207 million fundraising haul after election in effort to overturn result"
1386:
1006:
824:
220:
172:
2019:"Biden's Popular Vote Lead is Now Over 7 Million Votes As States Continue Their Counts"
663:
411:
285:
162:
1502:
1201:"Trump Suggests Unprecedented Delay to November Election — But Congress Sets the Date"
2746:
1692:"Trump declines to commit to peaceful transfer of power: 'There won't be a transfer'"
647:
443:
329:
216:
2486:"Trump's Save America PAC is raking in donations — what can that money be spent on?"
1357:"Could Trump delay the November election? Not without risking forfeit to a Democrat"
1034:"Will Biden Cling To Power In 2024 The Way Democrats Predicted Trump Would In 2020?"
879:"Will Biden Cling To Power In 2024 The Way Democrats Predicted Trump Would In 2020?"
616:
They concluded that even in the face of public unrest and attempted interference by
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1382:
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772:
685:
667:
654:
Trump also unsuccessfully personally pressured the Governor of Georgia, Republican
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373:
339:
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306:
294:
258:
182:
167:
2275:"Trump And His Allies Have Lost Nearly 60 Election Fights In Court (And Counting)"
2069:
1994:"We Gamed Out The 2020 Election And Found Our Constitution Can Handle The Madness"
2146:"Here's how Donald Trump's election court battles have fared so far. (Not good!)"
487:
interfere with the ability of the United States Postal Service to deliver ballots
2404:"Trump pressured Georgia governor in call to help overturn Biden's win in state"
570:
shortcomings were simulated in another post-election simulation run in October.
497:
345:
270:
152:
147:
2378:"20 days of fantasy and failure: Inside Trump's quest to overturn the election"
1227:"Trump floats idea of delaying election, congressional Republicans reject idea"
2565:
1653:"Mail Delays Fuel Concern Trump Is Undercutting Postal System Ahead of Voting"
655:
582:
357:
224:
177:
1945:
1862:
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976:
473:
Trump has also claimed that Democrats' efforts to expand the availability of
254:
2694:"Democrats Ready Impeachment Charge Against Trump for Inciting Capitol Mob"
351:
269:
The Transition Integrity Project was initially organized in late 2019 by
196:
2692:
Fandos, Nicholas; Haberman, Maggie; Broadwater, Luke (January 9, 2021).
1885:"Will Pence choose partisanship over statesmanship in counting ballots?"
1454:"Trump says voting by mail isn't reliable. What does the evidence show?"
2249:"Trump's election fight includes over 50 lawsuits. It's not going well"
1746:"Experts Game Out What Might Happen If The Election Goes Off The Rails"
1439:
1402:
1164:
518:
1303:"Can Trump Delay the 2020 Election? Here's What the Constitution Says"
392:
Mike Howell — attorney, former Trump administration staffer, and
617:
492:
In September 2020, a federal judge issued an injunction against the
1179:"Trump floats delaying election despite lack of authority to do so"
2566:"WATCH | President Trump speaks at 'Save America' rally - YouTube"
1651:
Shear, Michael D.; Fuchs, Hailey; Vogel, Kenneth (July 31, 2020).
414: — former Chief Operating Officer and acting Commissioner of
215:) were two distinct series of political scenario exercises in the
2460:"Georgia Officials Rebuff Trump's Call to Help Overturn Election"
2668:"House Republicans Ask For Biden To Help Stop Trump Impeachment"
2301:"Trump summons Michigan GOP leaders for extraordinary meeting"
1503:"AP FACT CHECK: Trump misleads on mail ballots, virus vaccine"
1113:"Transcript: 'Fox News Sunday' interview with President Trump"
829:
621:
18:
2402:
Holmes, Kristen; Stracqualursi, Veronica (December 5, 2020).
2197:"Trump thought courts were key to winning. Judges disagreed"
1601:"What's the difference between absentee and mail-in voting?"
673:
Thus, much of scenario two of the war games has played out.
112:
To identify risks to a free, fair and peaceful 2020 election
2120:"Trump's election legal challenges: where do things stand?"
1799:"What Happens if Donald Trump Fights the Election Results?"
2070:"Live 2020 election results: Presidency, Senate and House"
1627:"Dem group warns of apparent Trump Election Day landslide"
1056:"Presidential Inaugurations: Traditions & Transitions"
965:"Opinion | Trump Might Cheat. Activists Are Getting Ready"
2171:"Trump's election lawsuits plagued by elementary errors"
2045:"Biden's popular vote margin over Trump tops 7 million"
1281:
Acts of the Twenty-Eighth Congress of the United States
42:
2043:
Sullivan, Kate; Agiesta, Jennifer (December 4, 2020).
438:
Trump's own statements have fueled concerns about the
383: — former Democratic U.S. Senator from New Jersey
2223:"The Facts on Trump's Post-Election Legal Challenges"
1968:"Election Day: What If We Have No Winner for Months?"
628:
Aftermath: How did the scenario projections hold up?
53:, and by adding encyclopedic content written from a
2720:Collins, Kaitlan; Liptak, Kevin (January 8, 2021).
1330:"Why Trump Has No Power to Delay the 2020 Election"
906:
904:
902:
900:
898:
896:
521:exercises. The scenarios examined by TIP included:
191:
138:
130:
116:
108:
100:
92:
2722:"Trump tweets he is skipping Biden's inauguration"
2591:"In 1814, British forces burned the U.S. Capitol"
2352:"Trump Invites Michigan Lawmakers to White House"
1414:
1412:
517:In the summer of 2020, TIP conducted a series of
1934:"How the DNC Could Get the Election Story Wrong"
104:Series of June 2020 political scenario exercises
1529:"A Complete Guide To Early And Absentee Voting"
1851:"How to Foil Trump's Election Night Strategy"
16:Political scenario exercises in United States
8:
87:
1551:"Trump's Latest Voter Fraud Misinformation"
1481:"Trump's Latest Voter Fraud Misinformation"
1002:"How America could fail its democracy test"
389: — former California State Assemblyman
1992:Roberts K, Williams R (October 19, 2020).
1911:Will Americans Trust the Election Process?
624:, the constitutional order would prevail.
86:
2431:Russonello, Giovanni (December 7, 2020).
73:Learn how and when to remove this message
1825:"How to avert a post-election nightmare"
1062:. The White House Historical Association
939:"How to avert a post-election nightmare"
1087:"The Election That Could Break America"
705:
2433:"Trump's Pressure Campaign in Georgia"
1085:Gellman, Barton (September 23, 2020).
963:Goldberg, Michelle (August 17, 2020).
761:
759:
574:Similar efforts by conservative groups
253:notably playing the role of President
34:contains content that is written like
2666:Reimann, Nicholas (January 9, 2021).
1721:"What's the worst that could happen?"
1625:Talev, Margaret (September 1, 2020).
1249:"Trump floats delaying 2020 election"
662:the election, but rather, to his new
7:
1763:Blow, Charles M. (August 23, 2020).
1527:Young, Ashley (September 23, 2016).
1111:Goldberg, Michelle (July 19, 2020).
1883:Tolliver, Sandy (August 11, 2020).
1823:Beauchamp, Zack (August 18, 2020).
1014:from the original on August 3, 2020
937:Beauchamp, Zack (August 19, 2020).
780:from the original on August 6, 2020
496:, ruling that Trump and Postmaster
1849:Bouie, Jamelle (August 11, 2020).
1328:Burns, Alexander (July 30, 2020).
416:U.S. Customs and Border Protection
275:University of California, Berkeley
261:represents a threat to democracy.
14:
2095:"U.S. 2020 live election results"
1549:Farley, Robert (April 10, 2020).
1479:Farley, Robert (April 10, 2020).
837:from the original on May 16, 2024
370:Transition Integrity Project 2024
242:Transition Integrity Project 2024
23:
1966:Fund, John (October 19, 2020).
1998:Texas Public Policy Foundation
857:"Transition Integrity Project"
587:Texas Public Policy Foundation
399:Adam Ellwanger — Academic
325:Secretary of State of Kentucky
303:President of the United States
1:
2753:Politics of the United States
1932:Smith, Ben (August 2, 2020).
766:Frum, David (July 31, 2020).
334:Democratic National Committee
290:Republican National Committee
2502:$ 207.5 million in donations
1501:Yen, Hope (August 8, 2020).
768:"Where the System May Break"
658:, to overturn the election.
538:Game Three: Clear Trump Win.
440:peaceful transition of power
405: — former chief of the
288: — former chair of the
209:Transition Integrity Project
88:Transition Integrity Project
1765:"Trump's Campaign of Chaos"
545:Game Four: Narrow Biden Win
407:United States Border Patrol
2774:
637:file dozens of court cases
299:White House Chief of Staff
229:2020 presidential election
197:transitionintegrityproject
604:Game Two: Clear Biden Win
598:Game One: Clear Trump Win
532:Game Two: Clear Biden Win
460:House Judiciary Committee
428:presidential transitions
442:. In an interview with
2419:Georgia Gov. Brian Kem
1680:. September 17, 2020.
1060:WhiteHouseHistory.org
692:on January 13, 2021.
610:Game Three: Ambiguous
580:American conservative
549:Joint Chiefs of Staff
340:William Kristol
277:and historian at the
55:neutral point of view
1460:. September 24, 2020
1181:. CNN. July 30, 2020
316:Governor of Michigan
134:Simulation exercises
2758:Political campaigns
2358:. November 19, 2020
2307:. November 19, 2020
2281:. December 14, 2020
2255:. November 23, 2020
2229:. November 20, 2020
2177:. November 19, 2020
2126:. November 19, 2020
591:Claremont Institute
526:Game One: Ambiguous
494:recent USPS actions
422:History and context
394:Heritage Foundation
279:Berggruen Institute
89:
47:promotional content
2699:The New York Times
2492:. December 5, 2020
2466:. December 5, 2020
2438:The New York Times
2203:. December 8, 2020
1938:The New York Times
1855:The New York Times
1769:The New York Times
1657:The New York Times
1335:The New York Times
1283:. January 23, 1845
1205:www.nbcnewyork.com
969:The New York Times
646:and House Speaker
458:, chairman of the
239:. The second, the
49:and inappropriate
2622:. January 8, 2021
1422:(April 8, 2020).
1420:"Donald J Trump"
1385:(July 30, 2020).
1383:Rep Jerry Nadler
1361:Los Angeles Times
1151:). Archived from
1143:(July 30, 2020).
833:. July 31, 2020.
690:for a second time
479:ballot collection
381:Robert Torricelli
312:Jennifer Granholm
251:Robert Torricelli
237:Protect Democracy
205:
204:
158:Jennifer Granholm
83:
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1914:, August 3, 2020
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1363:. March 17, 2020
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1309:. April 13, 2020
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1207:. July 30, 2020
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1036:. July 11, 2024
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881:. July 11, 2024
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412:Mark A. Morgan
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684:In response,
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32:This article
30:
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2124:the Guardian
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2102:. Retrieved
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2077:. Retrieved
2074:politico.com
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2023:POLITICUSUSA
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2003:November 12,
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1792:
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1458:PBS NewsHour
1457:
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1438:– via
1434:September 3,
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1159:September 1,
1157:. Retrieved
1153:the original
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1091:The Atlantic
1090:
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1028:
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1005:
998:Luce, Edward
992:
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773:The Atlantic
771:
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742:
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721:. Retrieved
718:newsweek.com
717:
708:
694:
686:Nancy Pelosi
683:
675:
672:
668:Save America
660:
653:
644:Mike Shirkey
641:
634:
631:
615:
609:
603:
597:
577:
568:
559:
544:
537:
531:
525:
516:
503:
491:
472:
464:
456:Jerry Nadler
452:
448:
437:
433:
425:
403:Rodney Scott
387:Chuck DeVore
374:Chuck DeVore
367:
363:
360:— journalist
354:— journalist
348:— journalist
342:— journalist
336:Acting Chair
321:Trey Grayson
307:Bill Clinton
295:John Podesta
268:
259:Donald Trump
246:
240:
212:
208:
206:
183:Trey Grayson
168:John Podesta
84:
69:
60:
45:by removing
41:Please help
33:
2731:January 10,
2705:January 10,
2677:January 10,
2651:January 10,
2626:January 10,
2600:January 10,
2575:January 10,
2570:youtube.com
2550:December 8,
2524:December 8,
2496:December 8,
2490:cbsnews.com
2470:December 8,
2444:December 8,
2413:December 8,
2362:December 9,
2336:December 9,
2233:December 8,
2207:December 8,
2054:December 8,
2028:December 8,
1977:October 28,
1610:November 8,
1585:November 8,
809:November 5,
748:February 9,
723:February 9,
583:think tanks
556:Conclusions
513:Methodology
498:Louis DeJoy
346:Edward Luce
271:Rosa Brooks
225:journalists
153:Nils Gilman
148:Rosa Brooks
2747:Categories
1951:August 30,
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