839:
941:, on which future people do not matter (or matter much less), morally speaking. While these views are controversial, they would agree that an existential catastrophe would be among the worst things imaginable. It would cut short the lives of eight billion presently existing people, destroying all of what makes their lives valuable, and most likely subjecting many of them to profound suffering. So even setting aside the value of future generations, there may be strong reasons to reduce existential risk, grounded in concern for presently existing people.
974:
6088:
47:
5936:
305:
6500:
5948:
850:"Existential risks" are risks that threaten the entire future of humanity, whether by causing human extinction or by otherwise permanently crippling human progress. Multiple scholars have argued based on the size of the "cosmic endowment" that because of the inconceivably large number of potential future lives that are at stake, even small reductions of existential risk have great value.
558:
subject to a roughly constant level of natural risk. If the natural risk were sufficiently high, then it would be highly unlikely that humanity would have survived as long as it has. Based on a formalization of this argument, researchers have concluded that we can be confident that natural risk is lower than 1 in 14,000 per year (equivalent to 1 in 140 per century, on average).
6510:
3531:
is encroaching on ecosystems that would otherwise be intact. Third, factory farming fosters the creation of millions upon millions of animals for whom it offers nothing but suffering and misery before slaughtering them in often barbaric ways. There is no reason to think that those practices are going to diminish any time soon. Quite the opposite.
3503:, the demise of humanity would be the best imaginable event possible, and the sooner the better. The extinction of Homo sapiens would remove the malignancy ravaging the planet, destroy a parasite consuming its host, shut down the killing machines, and allow the earth to regenerate while permitting new species to evolve.
720:
smaller than 10%. To avoid this collapse, the study says, humanity should pass from a civilization dominated by the economy to a "cultural society" that "privileges the interest of the ecosystem above the individual interest of its components, but eventually in accordance with the overall communal interest."
1774:'s definition: "An existential risk is one that threatens the premature extinction of Earth-originating intelligent life or the permanent and drastic destruction of its potential for desirable future development." Source: Bostrom, Nick (2013). "Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority". Global Policy.
3530:
Human beings are destroying large parts of the inhabitable earth and causing unimaginable suffering to many of the animals that inhabit it. This is happening through at least three means. First, human contribution to climate change is devastating ecosystems ... Second, the increasing human population
902:
who would not be born.... (By one calculation), the stakes are one million times greater for extinction than for the more modest nuclear wars that kill "only" hundreds of millions of people. There are many other possible measures of the potential loss – including culture and science, the evolutionary
949:
writes of a "partnership...between those who are living, those who are dead, and those who are to be born". If one takes seriously the debt humanity owes to past generations, Ord argues the best way of repaying it might be to "pay it forward", and ensure that humanity's inheritance is passed down to
925:
Parfit argues that the size of the "cosmic endowment" can be calculated from the following argument: If Earth remains habitable for a billion more years and can sustainably support a population of more than a billion humans, then there is a potential for 10 (or 10,000,000,000,000,000) human lives of
731:, argues that it would be "misguided" to assume that the probability of near-term extinction is less than 25% and that it will be "a tall order" for the human race to "get our precautions sufficiently right the first time", given that an existential risk provides no opportunity to learn from failure.
944:
Beyond utilitarianism, other moral perspectives lend support to the importance of reducing existential risk. An existential catastrophe would destroy more than just humanity – it would destroy all cultural artifacts, languages, and traditions, and many of the things we value. So moral viewpoints on
557:
Experts generally agree that anthropogenic existential risks are (much) more likely than natural risks. A key difference between these risk types is that empirical evidence can place an upper bound on the level of natural risk. Humanity has existed for at least 200,000 years, over which it has been
719:
continue at current rates, they could culminate in a "catastrophic collapse in human population" and possibly "an irreversible collapse of our civilization" in the next 20 to 40 years. According to the most optimistic scenario provided by the study, the chances that human civilization survives are
887:
perspective, the value of protecting humanity is the product of its duration (how long humanity survives), its size (how many humans there are over time), and its quality (on average, how good is life for future people). On average, species survive for around a million years before going extinct.
799:
is accepted, it changes the most likely source of disasters, and hence the most efficient means of preventing them. They write: "...you should be more concerned that a large number of asteroids have not yet been detected than about the particular orbit of each one. You should not worry especially
763:
Jean-Marc
Salotti calculated the probability of human extinction caused by a giant asteroid impact. It is between 0.03 and 0.3 for the next billion years, if there is no colonization of other planets. According to that study, the most frightening object is a giant long-period comet with a warning
647:
A 2016 survey of AI experts found a median estimate of 5% that human-level AI would cause an outcome that was "extremely bad (e.g. human extinction)". In 2019, the risk was lowered to 2%, but in 2022, it was increased back to 5%. In 2023, the risk doubled to 10%. In 2024, the risk doubled to 20%,
218:
discussed the extinction of species as a natural process and a core component of natural selection. Notably, Darwin was skeptical of the possibility of sudden extinction, viewing it as a gradual process. He held that the abrupt disappearances of species from the fossil record were not evidence of
812:
would have difficulty eradicating every last settlement on Earth. Physicist
Willard Wells points out that any credible extinction scenario would have to reach into a diverse set of areas, including the underground subways of major cities, the mountains of Tibet, the remotest islands of the South
595:
has suggested that humans presumably have a number of inherited behavior patterns (IBPs) that are not fine-tuned for conditions prevailing in technological civilization. Indeed, some IBPs may be highly incompatible with such conditions and have a high potential to induce self-destruction. These
910:
in 1989 rejected Parfit's "impersonal" views but spoke instead of a moral imperative for loyalty and commitment to "the future of humanity as a vast project... The aspiration for a better society – more just, more rewarding, and more peaceful... our interest in the lives of our children and
892:, it could greatly increase the human population and survive for trillions of years. The size of the foregone potential that would be lost, were humanity to become extinct, is very large. Therefore, reducing existential risk by even a small amount would have a very significant moral value.
3451:
Although there are many non-human species – especially carnivores – that also cause a lot of suffering, humans have the unfortunate distinction of being the most destructive and harmful species on earth. The amount of suffering in the world could be radically reduced if there were no more
585:
Since anthropogenic risk is a relatively recent phenomenon, humanity's track record of survival cannot provide similar assurances. Humanity has only survived 78 years since the creation of nuclear weapons, and for future technologies, there is no track record. This has led thinkers like
577:
that could endanger the survival of humanity. The geological record suggests that supervolcanic eruptions are estimated to occur on average about once every 50,000 years, though most such eruptions would not reach the scale required to cause human extinction. Famously, the supervolcano
420:
argues that preventing existential risks is one of the most important moral issues of our time. The book discusses, quantifies, and compares different existential risks, concluding that the greatest risks are presented by unaligned artificial intelligence and biotechnology.
207:
had identified 23 extinct prehistoric species. The doctrine was further gradually undermined by evidence from the natural sciences, particularly the discovery of fossil evidence of species that appeared to no longer exist, and the development of theories of evolution. In
760:'s formulation: "We do not even know if there should exist some extremely dangerous decay of say the proton which caused the eradication of the earth, because if it happens we would no longer be there to observe it and if it does not happen there is nothing to observe."
590:
to conclude that humanity is currently in a "time of perils" – a uniquely dangerous period in human history, where it is subject to unprecedented levels of risk, beginning from when humans first started posing risk to themselves through their actions. Paleobiologist
999:, posit that human extinction would be a positive thing for the other organisms on the planet, and the planet itself, citing, for example, the omnicidal nature of human civilization. The environmental view in favor of human extinction is shared by the members of
873:(2) would be worse than (1), and (3) would be worse than (2). Which is the greater of these two differences? Most people believe that the greater difference is between (1) and (2). I believe that the difference between (2) and (3) is very much greater.
4260:
writes (p. 28): "Whether you are searching for a cure for cancer, or pursuing a scholarly or artistic career, or engaged in establishing more just institutions, a threat to the future of humanity is also a threat to the significance of what you
673:
In May 1, 2023, The Treaty on
Artificial Intelligence Safety and Cooperation (TAISC) estimated a 30.5% risk of an AI-caused catastrophe by 2200, although they also estimated a 32.2% risk of an AI-caused catastrophe by 2026, if there is no 6 month
670:, scientists estimated a 12% chance of AI-caused catastrophe and a 3% chance of AI-caused extinction by 2100. They also estimate an 8% chance of Nuclear War causing global catastrophe and a 0.5625% chance of Nuclear War causing human extinction.
922:, democratic, custodial, and intuitionist arguments all converge on the common-sense view that preventing existential risk is a high moral priority, even if the exact "degree of badness" of human extinction varies between these philosophies.
130:
The scientific consensus is that there is a relatively low risk of near-term human extinction due to natural causes. The likelihood of human extinction through humankind's own activities, however, is a current area of research and debate.
324:
wrote that "he prospect for the human race is sombre beyond all precedent. Mankind are faced with a clear-cut alternative: either we shall all perish, or we shall have to acquire some slight degree of common sense." In 1950,
2396:
396:, in which he argues that advances in certain technologies create new threats to the survival of humankind and that the 21st century may be a critical moment in history when humanity's fate is decided. Edited by
821:, which can stay hundreds of meters deep in the ocean for potentially years at a time, should also be considered. Any number of events could lead to a massive loss of human life, but if the last few (see
4491:
institutions over markets. The burden of this effort must fall almost entirely on the richest people and richest parts of the world, because it is they who continue to gamble with everyone else's fate."
366:
argued that measuring the severity of extinction solely in terms of those who die "conceals its full impact", and that nuclear war "imperils all of our descendants, for as long as there will be humans."
222:
As the possibility of extinction became more widely established in the sciences, so did the prospect of human extinction. In the 19th century, human extinction became a popular topic in science (e.g.,
945:
which we have duties to protect and cherish things of value would see this as a huge loss that should be avoided. One can also consider reasons grounded in duties to past generations. For instance,
2152:
Some planetary civilizations see their way through, place limits on what may and what must not be done, and safely pass through the time of perils. Others are not so lucky or so prudent, perish.
4395:
657:
416:
991:
argues that coming into existence is always serious harm, and therefore it is better that people do not come into existence in the future. Further, David
Benatar, animal rights activist
903:
history of the planet, and the significance of the lives of all of our ancestors who contributed to the future of their descendants. Extinction is the undoing of the human enterprise."
817:
in
Antarctica, which has contingency plans and supplies for long isolation. In addition, elaborate bunkers exist for government leaders to occupy during a nuclear war. The existence of
764:
time of a few years only and therefore no time for any intervention in space or settlement on the Moon or Mars. The probability of a giant comet impact in the next hundred years is
3147:
5388:
4727:
4684:
4317:"Eternal Fascinations with the End: Why We're Suckers for Stories of Our Own Demise: Our pattern-seeking brains and desire to be special help explain our fears of the apocalypse"
444:
116:
4653:
1040:), which depicts human extinction due to infertility, is considered the first modern apocalyptic novel and credited with launching the genre. Other notable early works include
382:
was an academic treatment of the science and ethics of human extinction. In it, Leslie considered a range of threats to humanity and what they have in common. In 2003, British
4518:
362:" in the early 1980s, a specific mechanism by which nuclear war could result in human extinction, again raised the issue to prominence. Writing about these findings in 1983,
320:
The invention of the atomic bomb prompted a wave of discussion among scientists, intellectuals, and the public at large about the risk of human extinction. In a 1945 essay,
930:
can support at least 10 biological human life-years; and, if some humans were uploaded onto computers, could even support the equivalent of 10 cybernetic human life-years.
5781:
883:
The scale of what is lost in an existential catastrophe is determined by humanity's long-term potential – what humanity could expect to achieve if it survived. From a
4219:
is one of the most fundamental of human traits and helps explain our current inability to come up with a response commensurate with the perils we face." (p. 41.)
800:
about the chance that some specific nearby star will become a supernova, but more about the chance that supernovas are more deadly to nearby life than we believe."
6427:
5679:
1591:
2586:
888:
Parfit points out that the Earth will remain habitable for around a billion years. And these might be lower bounds on our potential: if humanity is able to
4732:
4106:
Our Final Hour: A Scientist's
Warning : how Terror, Error, and Environmental Disaster Threaten Humankind's Future in this Century--on Earth and Beyond
2374:
Grace, Katja; Salvatier, John; Dafoe, Allen; Zhang, Baobao; Evans, Owain (May 3, 2018). "When Will AI Exceed Human
Performance? Evidence from AI Experts".
1097:(also called an intelligence explosion), drives the plot of innumerable science fiction stories; an influential early example is the 1951 film adaption of
746:, based on the observation that human extinction has never been observed, but requires subjective anthropic arguments. Leslie also discusses the anthropic
6484:
4835:
756:
certainty of observing an "undisastrous past" could make it difficult to argue that we must be safe because nothing terrible has yet occurred. He quotes
6261:
144:
Before the 18th and 19th centuries, the possibility that humans or other organisms could become extinct was viewed with scepticism. It contradicted the
333:
that could render the planet unlivable. A 1950 Gallup poll found that 19% of
Americans believed that another world war would mean "an end to mankind".
4598:
1691:
Our Final Hour: A Scientist's
Warning: How Terror, Error, and Environmental Disaster Threaten Humankind's Future In This Century – On Earth and Beyond
6309:
2076:"Subdecadal phytolith and charcoal records from Lake Malawi, East Africa imply minimal effects on human evolution from the ~74 ka Toba supereruption"
5838:
5776:
1906:
1020:
3259:
1649:
6271:
4511:
228:
6256:
2183:
We live during the hinge of history ... If we act wisely in the next few centuries, humanity will survive its most dangerous and decisive period.
644:'s 2016 annual report estimates an annual probability of human extinction of at least 0.05% per year (equivalent to 5% per century, on average).
6411:
4269:
838:
6369:
6251:
3616:
4917:
4459:
4118:
4082:
3706:
1545:
1511:
1477:
1420:
6009:
4855:
2684:
My subjective opinion is that setting this probability lower than 25% would be misguided, and the best estimate may be considerably higher.
6442:
6191:
5410:
4850:
4749:
3736:
1173:
1000:
977:
96:
2475:
2346:
6364:
5810:
4504:
4419:
4161:
4046:
3681:
3559:
3495:
In an era of catastrophe and crisis, the continuation of the human species in a viable or desirable form, is obviously contingent and
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3403:
2819:
2018:
1738:
1450:
1025:
233:
3645:
6329:
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4234:
3791:
2176:
2145:
1814:
1763:
1702:
1046:
861:
I believe that if we destroy mankind, as we now can, this outcome will be much worse than most people think. Compare three outcomes:
284:
3051:
Adams, Robert
Merrihew (October 1989). "Should Ethics be More Impersonal? a Critical Notice of Derek Parfit, Reasons and Persons".
1200:
3976:
3960:
3943:
3923:
3907:
3891:
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3859:
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3813:
911:
grandchildren, and the hopes that they will be able, in turn, to have the lives of their children and grandchildren as projects."
898:
wrote in 1983: "If we are required to calibrate extinction in numerical terms, I would be sure to include the number of people in
561:
Another empirical method to study the likelihood of certain natural risks is to investigate the geological record. For example, a
6463:
6432:
5395:
5091:
3972:
3233:
406:
39:
For methodological challenges quantifying and mitigating the risk, proposed mitigation measures, and related organizations, see
6241:
6138:
5442:
4939:
4912:
4543:
1343:
965:
has argued that humanity is doing far too little, in general, about small, hard-to-estimate risks of large-scale catastrophes.
596:
patterns may include responses of individuals seeking power over conspecifics in relation to harvesting and consuming energy.
515:) as a species may also be considered to have "gone extinct" simply by being replaced with distant descendants whose continued
1093:: what would happen to the rest of the planet if humans suddenly disappeared? A threat of human extinction, such as through a
6118:
4800:
4405:
3365:
825:) most resilient humans are unlikely to also die off, then that particular human extinction scenario may not seem credible.
278:", and in 1824 envisaged humanity being threatened by a comet impact, and employing a missile system to defend against it.
6468:
5190:
5096:
4548:
2793:
2422:
961:
may come from the small chance that warming greatly exceeds the mid-range expectations, resulting in catastrophic damage.
541:
1007:
who call for refraining from reproduction and allowing the human species to go peacefully extinct, thus stopping further
637:
A 2008 survey by the Future of Humanity Institute estimated a 5% probability of extinction by super-intelligence by 2100.
6299:
5843:
5240:
5140:
4252:
4183:
2450:
1874:
1852:
1115:
641:
430:
6384:
5974:
5723:
4922:
4872:
4274:
3825:
787:
Although existential risks are less manageable by individuals than, for example, health risks, according to Ken Olum,
483:
410:
was published in 2008, a collection of essays from 26 academics on various global catastrophic and existential risks.
1886:
The great bulk of existential risk in the foreseeable future is anthropogenic; that is, arising from human activity.
1595:
738:
assigns a 70% chance of humanity surviving the next five centuries, based partly on the controversial philosophical
288:
is set in a world where humanity has been nearly destroyed by a mysterious plague. At the turn of the 20th century,
6032:
5383:
5235:
5210:
4620:
2245:
1085:
973:
108:
46:
3519:
6534:
6374:
5853:
5786:
5629:
5361:
5356:
5230:
5060:
4902:
4689:
4153:
1094:
1008:
919:
822:
752:
699:
85:
33:
6406:
6398:
6294:
6246:
6002:
5959:
5848:
5743:
5669:
5496:
5125:
4825:
4527:
4170:
1153:
569:
that would cause human extinction before the year 2100 has been estimated at one-in-a-million. Moreover, large
253:
248:
210:
92:
40:
3323:
6344:
5954:
5523:
5378:
4674:
4074:
3783:
3773:
3761:
3432:
3391:
2558:
2197:"Potential incompatibility of inherited behavior patterns with civilization: Implications for Fermi paradox"
1730:
1722:
1506:. Sophia Studies in Cross-cultural Philosophy of Traditions and Cultures. Springer Netherlands. p. 21.
934:
579:
401:
3843:
12: Influence of Supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, solar flares, and cosmic rays on the terrestrial environment
6211:
6163:
5969:
5803:
5750:
5644:
5467:
5312:
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square in the face. That would mean taking much bigger and more transformative steps: all but eliminating
4471:
4257:
4239:
3515:
2940:
996:
953:
There are several economists who have discussed the importance of global catastrophic risks. For example,
471:
by choosing to have fewer children, displacement of naturally evolved humans by a new species produced by
145:
6513:
4316:
3731:
2504:"A 30% Chance of AI Catastrophe: Samotsvety's Forecasts on AI Risks and the Impact of a Strong AI Treaty"
1953:
6289:
6168:
6057:
6047:
5373:
5185:
4647:
4608:
3551:
1168:
907:
223:
6334:
6437:
6206:
6196:
6153:
5535:
5437:
5302:
5264:
5014:
4818:
4712:
4353:
2785:
2678:
Bostrom, Nick (2002), "Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards",
2634:
2284:
2136:
2087:
2033:
1994:
1921:
1250:
1143:
1069:
1004:
927:
843:
724:
695:
511:
460:
352:
200:
81:
4439:
4299:
2945:
1366:
Moynihan, Thomas (February 2020). "Existential risk and human extinction: An intellectual history".
627:
estimated a 30% risk over the next five centuries (equivalent to around 6% per century, on average).
6503:
6266:
6148:
6143:
6133:
6052:
5995:
5879:
5659:
5530:
5452:
5050:
4996:
4944:
4907:
4897:
4603:
4265:
4196:
3650:
3543:
3098:
2882:
2529:
2273:
Gott, III, J. Richard (1993). "Implications of the Copernican principle for our future prospects".
1216:
When we think of existential risks, events like nuclear war or asteroid impacts often come to mind.
1163:
1099:
757:
472:
112:
3674:
The end: 50 apocalyptic visions from pop culture that you should know about – before it's too late
3301:
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3524:
3472:
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3175:
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3033:
3025:
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2852:
2767:
2624:
2375:
2300:
1945:
1661:
1630:
1393:
1090:
899:
889:
707:
468:
456:
104:
69:
5935:
4460:
A.I. poses human extinction risk on par with nuclear war, Sam Altman and other tech leaders warn
3436:
3426:
475:
or technological augmentation. Natural and external extinction risks include high-fatality-rate
3395:
3385:
304:
6473:
6359:
6349:
6102:
6062:
5815:
5716:
5511:
5319:
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4813:
4776:
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4722:
4640:
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4157:
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4078:
4052:
4042:
4016:
3956:
3939:
3919:
3887:
3797:
3787:
3745:
3702:
3677:
3590:
3555:
3484:
3467:(2014). "Conclusion: Reflections on Activism and Hope in a Dying World and Suicidal Culture".
3440:
3399:
3214:
3167:
3128:
2898:
2864:
2860:
2815:
2660:
2423:"Elon Musk says there could be a 20% chance AI destroys humanity — but we should do it anyway"
2226:
2172:
2141:
2113:
2105:
1937:
1810:
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1734:
1698:
1541:
1507:
1473:
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1416:
1385:
1368:
1284:
1266:
1128:
1079:
938:
818:
796:
777:
747:
739:
620:, which argues that we have probably already lived through half the duration of human history.
617:
533:
348:
177:
165:
100:
3194:
1535:
1501:
6226:
6201:
6158:
6128:
6077:
6072:
5964:
5899:
5728:
5706:
5550:
5518:
5506:
5482:
5108:
5045:
5004:
4934:
4929:
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4566:
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4008:
3765:
3621:
3476:
3338:
3267:
3206:
3159:
3120:
3060:
3017:
2950:
2844:
2757:
2709:
2650:
2642:
2427:
2292:
2275:
2216:
2208:
2095:
2041:
1929:
1653:
1622:
1377:
1274:
1258:
1138:
1110:
728:
440:
383:
321:
238:
196:
stated that the extinction of the human race may be beneficial to the future of the world.
192:
and began wondering if abstract worlds existed, including a world without humans. Physicist
181:
2049:
661:. He also estimated a "1 in 10" risk of extinction by unaligned AI within the next century.
6186:
6123:
5793:
5634:
5205:
5065:
4981:
4969:
4949:
4845:
4635:
4615:
4538:
4445:
4192:
4174:
4145:
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2797:
1837:
1029:
954:
814:
809:
716:
613:
574:
537:
495:
464:
436:
289:
275:
4450:
4357:
2638:
2288:
2221:
2196:
2091:
2037:
1998:
1925:
1254:
1103:. Usually the extinction threat is narrowly avoided, but some exceptions exist, such as
694:
predicted the extinction of the human race within a century, primarily as the result of
6339:
6314:
5771:
5711:
5696:
5649:
5545:
5491:
5351:
5009:
4986:
4959:
4877:
4867:
4769:
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4630:
4581:
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4339:
4222:
4064:
4028:
2655:
2612:
1279:
1238:
1055:
962:
958:
926:
normal duration. Bostrom goes further, stating that if the universe is empty, then the
884:
735:
686:
624:
503:
448:
392:
375:
359:
344:
243:
215:
204:
4187:, vol. LXX, no. 18 (23 November 2023), pp. 40–42. De Bellaigue writes: "Like the
2074:
Yost, Chad L.; Jackson, Lily J.; Stone, Jeffery R.; Cohen, Andrew S. (March 1, 2018).
6528:
6216:
6067:
6042:
5914:
5798:
5755:
5701:
5689:
5674:
5664:
5587:
5501:
5477:
5472:
5346:
5341:
5336:
5252:
4840:
4781:
4744:
4696:
4295:
3999:
3935:
3903:
3422:
3381:
3350:
3037:
3005:
2977:
2928:
2856:
2771:
2480:
2397:"Is the AI apocalypse actually coming? What life could look like if robots take over"
1933:
1397:
1178:
988:
750:(which he calls an "observational selection" effect on page 139) and states that the
712:
666:
605:
566:
339:
334:
293:
193:
120:
4475:, vol. 45, no. 17 (7 September 2023), pp. 17–19. "e are in desperate need of a
3179:
2962:
2246:"Probabilities, methodologies and the evidence base in existential risk assessments"
1949:
6458:
6037:
5940:
5874:
5606:
5592:
5447:
5257:
5225:
5215:
5118:
4964:
4862:
4808:
4717:
4576:
4484:
4453:
4425:
4327:
3990:
3769:
3757:
3727:
2982:
2902:
2587:"Theoretical Physicists Say 90% Chance of Societal Collapse Within Several Decades"
2351:
2304:
2164:
1833:
1771:
1718:
1472:. Wissenschaftliche Untersuchungen zum Neuen Testament. Mohr Siebeck. p. 132.
1158:
1074:
1041:
984:
946:
915:
854:
788:
691:
570:
562:
487:
480:
397:
314:
309:
279:
199:
The notion that species can become extinct gained scientific acceptance during the
169:
77:
73:
4287:
2848:
2762:
2745:
1381:
219:
catastrophic extinctions, but rather represented unrecognised gaps in the record.
4104:
4068:
4032:
3777:
2100:
2075:
1406:
612:
Humanity has a 95% probability of being extinct in 7,800,000 years, according to
152:, and was an important tenet of Christian theology. Ancient philosophers such as
6319:
6304:
6087:
5919:
5601:
5462:
5457:
5294:
5279:
5155:
5130:
4759:
4679:
4586:
4571:
4480:
4412:
Morality, Foresight, and Human Flourishing: An Introduction to Existential Risks
4110:
4100:
3994:
3855:
3464:
1694:
1572:
1133:
992:
743:
631:
499:
387:
330:
326:
267:
257:
189:
50:
4365:
2929:"Astronomical Waste: The opportunity cost of delayed technological development"
2789:
2646:
1262:
634:
estimated a 50% chance of collapse of civilisation in the twenty-first century.
6018:
5869:
5684:
5654:
5639:
5427:
5415:
5175:
5037:
4663:
4056:
3163:
2954:
2714:
2697:
2212:
2131:
1841:
1148:
1060:
895:
587:
363:
271:
173:
61:
4092:
4020:
3801:
3749:
3732:"Existential risks: analyzing human extinction scenarios and related hazards"
3594:
3218:
3171:
2109:
1577:
Tempo And Mode in Evolution: Genetics And Paleontology 50 Years After Simpson
1389:
1270:
6324:
5611:
5400:
5329:
5274:
5269:
5135:
4976:
4882:
4625:
4496:
4488:
4340:"The Psychology of Existential Risk: Moral Judgments about Human Extinction"
4216:
4204:
4128:
4038:
4012:
3892:
15: Artificial Intelligence as a positive and negative factor in global risk
3577:"Review of The Last Man, Jean-Baptiste François Xavier Cousin de Grainville"
3480:
3124:
2613:"Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis"
2534:
1412:
1348:
678:
592:
516:
491:
161:
157:
149:
4383:
3324:"On modeling and interpreting the economics of catastrophic climate change"
3132:
2903:"Population Ethics | Practical Implications of Population Ethical Theories"
2664:
2230:
2117:
2045:
1941:
1288:
1237:
Snyder-Beattie, Andrew E.; Ord, Toby; Bonsall, Michael B. (July 30, 2019).
987:
position that human extinction would not be a bad thing, but a good thing.
3814:
10: Super-volcanism and other geophysical processes of catastrophic import
148:, a doctrine that all possible things exist. The principle traces back to
6379:
6354:
5904:
5889:
5420:
5405:
5307:
5145:
4593:
4476:
4390:
4243:
4200:
2563:
1979:
1051:
652:
476:
452:
411:
124:
3602:
3576:
3342:
3279:
3029:
1665:
467:
pose the risk of resource depletion and a concomitant population crash,
17:
5884:
5738:
5733:
5570:
5560:
5368:
5180:
4892:
4887:
3210:
3072:
1866:
1634:
1610:
655:
estimates existential risk in the next century at "1 in 6" in his book
526:
1344:"How Humanity Came To Contemplate Its Possible Extinction: A Timeline"
5894:
5820:
3271:
3021:
2835:
Tonn, Bruce; MacGregor, Donald (2009). "A singular chain of events".
2296:
1657:
1105:
3064:
2019:"Super eruptions as a threat to civilizations on Earth-like planets"
867:(2) A nuclear war that kills 99% of the world's existing population.
4469:"Treading Thin Air: Geoff Mann on Uncertainty and Climate Change",
2629:
2380:
1626:
5565:
5324:
1978:
Asher, D.J.; Bailey, M.E.; Emel'yanenko, V.; Napier, W.M. (2005).
972:
853:
In one of the earliest discussions of ethics of human extinction,
837:
303:
185:
164:
wrote of the end of humankind only as part of a cycle of renewal.
153:
65:
45:
4227:
The Doomsday Book: The Science Behind Humanity's Greatest Threats
3469:
The Politics of Total Liberation: Revolution for the 21st Century
5909:
4463:
4434:
Cosmos and History: The Journal of Natural and Social Philosophy
4212:
4208:
4034:
The End of the World: The Science and Ethics of Human Extinction
3410:
Being brought into existence is not a benefit but always a harm.
3260:"Nuclear War and Climatic Catastrophe: Some Policy Implications"
3006:"Nuclear war and climatic catastrophe: Some policy implications"
2698:"Implication of our technological species being first and early"
2508:
Treaty on Artificial Intelligence Safety and Cooperation (TAISC)
1650:"Nuclear War and Climatic Catastrophe: Some Policy Implications"
933:
Some economists and philosophers have defended views, including
778:
Nuclear holocaust § Likelihood of complete human extinction
521:
296:, advocated avoiding humanity's extinction by colonizing space.
262:
172:
that could lead to human extinction. Later philosophers such as
5991:
4500:
582:
at the time of its last eruption (though this is contentious).
3699:
Technophobia!: science fiction visions of posthuman technology
3548:
The Ahuman Manifesto: Activism for the End of the Anthropocene
795:
have practical implications. For instance, if the "universal"
791:, and Alexander Vilenkin, the possibility of human extinction
274:
wrote about the extinction of life on Earth in his 1816 poem "
5987:
608:
is frequently used instead to obtain probability estimates.
355:
to predict the total number of humans that will ever exist.
270:
authors and poets were particularly interested in the topic.
4338:
Schubert, Stefan; Caviola, Lucius; Faber, Nadira S. (2019).
4332:
Death from the Skies!: These Are the Ways the World Will End
3428:
Better Never to Have Been: The Harm of Coming into Existence
3387:
Better Never to Have Been: The Harm of Coming into Existence
2559:"Humans will be extinct in 100 years says eminent scientist"
1239:"An upper bound for the background rate of human extinction"
681:
users estimate a 1% probability of human extinction by 2100.
604:
Given the limitations of ordinary observation and modeling,
2503:
544:, the entire universe may eventually become uninhabitable.
540:
to make Earth uninhabitable, then destroy it. Depending on
435:
Potential anthropogenic causes of human extinction include
115:. Other scenarios center on emerging technologies, such as
53:
is an often-predicted cause of the extinction of humankind.
4396:
The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity
4256:, vol. LXVIII, no. 3 (February 25, 2021), pp. 26–29.
4248:
The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity
3701:(1st ed.). Austin, Texas: University of Texas press.
3234:"The person-affecting value of existential risk reduction"
1807:
The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity
1756:
The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity
808:
Some scholars argue that certain scenarios such as global
658:
The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity
417:
The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity
4207:
dysfunction and that the inverse is also true. Like the
343:
raised awareness of environmental catastrophe. In 1983,
3944:
19: Catastrophic nuclear terrorism: a preventable peril
2253:
Working Paper, Centre for the Study of Existential Risk
3111:
Narveson, Jan (1973). "Moral Problems of Population".
957:
argues that most of the expected economic damage from
4728:
Self-indication assumption doomsday argument rebuttal
1306:
1304:
1302:
1300:
1298:
1201:"The grim fate that could be 'worse than extinction'"
742:
that Leslie champions. Leslie's argument is somewhat
329:
suggested it was technologically feasible to build a
4654:
Safety of high-energy particle collision experiments
3876:
14: Plagues and pandemics: past, present, and future
2790:
Philosophical Implications of Inflationary Cosmology
6451:
6420:
6397:
6282:
6234:
6225:
6177:
6111:
6095:
6025:
5862:
5831:
5764:
5622:
5293:
5168:
5079:
5036:
5029:
4995:
4799:
4790:
4705:
4559:
1770:This is an equivalent, though crisper statement of
4451:What would happen to Earth if humans went extinct?
4242:, "The Power of Catastrophic Thinking" (review of
1537:X-Risk: How Humanity Discovered Its Own Extinction
1408:X-Risk: How Humanity Discovered Its Own Extinction
5782:List of apocalyptic and post-apocalyptic fiction
3995:"Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority"
3101:. Oxford, England: Clarendon Press. pp. 453–454.
140:Early history of thinking about human extinction
3980:
3964:
3947:
3927:
3911:
3895:
3879:
3863:
3846:
3833:
3817:
1067:Some 21st century pop-science works, including
859:
532:Without intervention by unexpected forces, the
32:"Omnicide" redirects here. For other uses, see
6428:International Union for Conservation of Nature
5680:List of dates predicted for apocalyptic events
3977:21: Nanotechnology as global catastrophic risk
3617:"He imagines a world without people. But why?"
2876:
2874:
1611:"The Polls: Atomic Weapons and Nuclear Energy"
6003:
4685:Existential risk from artificial intelligence
4512:
72:due to extraneous natural causes, such as an
8:
2887:. Oxford University Press. pp. 453–454.
1800:
1798:
1796:
1794:
1792:
1790:
1788:
1786:
1784:
1782:
203:in the 17th and 18th centuries, and by 1800
4733:Self-referencing doomsday argument rebuttal
2476:"What are the chances of an AI apocalypse?"
2355:. Boston, Massachusetts: Emerson Collective
939:person-affecting views of population ethics
580:Mt. Toba may have almost wiped out humanity
6485:The Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural History
6231:
6010:
5996:
5988:
5033:
4836:Climate change and civilizational collapse
4796:
4519:
4505:
4497:
2739:
2737:
1900:
1898:
1896:
1894:
1503:Politics of Religion/Religions of Politics
1337:
1335:
1333:
1331:
1329:
1327:
1325:
1323:
1321:
1319:
664:According to the July 10, 2023 article of
4436:, vol. 10, no. 2, 2014, pp. 329–336.
4373:
3676:. San Francisco, California: Zest Books.
3302:"Reflections on the Revolution in France"
3148:"Discounting for Public Policy: A Survey"
2978:"The case for reducing existential risks"
2944:
2761:
2713:
2654:
2628:
2379:
2220:
2099:
1445:. Harvard University Press. p. 121.
1441:Darwin, Charles; Costa, James T. (2009).
1278:
1050:, depicting human extinction caused by a
857:offers the following thought experiment:
168:was a proto-protestant who advocated for
5839:Centre for the Study of Existential Risk
5777:Apocalyptic and post-apocalyptic fiction
4179:The Earth Transformed: An Untold History
4150:Extinction: Evolution and the End of Man
3924:18: The continuing threat of nuclear war
2171:. Oxford University Press. p. 616.
1575:. In Fitch, W. M.; Ayala, F. J. (eds.).
1436:
1434:
1021:Apocalyptic and post-apocalyptic fiction
3501:the standpoint of animals and the earth
3085:
1907:"Reducing the Risk of Human Extinction"
1828:
1826:
1342:Moynihan, Thomas (September 23, 2020).
1310:
1191:
705:According to a 2020 study published in
229:An Essay on the Principle of Population
4173:, "A World Off the Hinges" (review of
3520:"Would Human Extinction Be a Tragedy?"
3331:The Review of Economics and Statistics
2728:
2696:Whitmire, Daniel P. (August 3, 2017).
2347:"Human Extinction Isn't That Unlikely"
2317:
2012:
2010:
2008:
1980:"Earth in the cosmic shooting gallery"
1684:
1682:
1566:
1564:
519:may produce new species or subspecies
3830:11: Hazards from comets and asteroids
3309:Select Works of Edmund Burke Volume 2
2746:"Human extinction by asteroid impact"
2702:International Journal of Astrobiology
2530:"Will humans become extinct by 2100?"
2017:Rampino, M.R.; Ambrose, S.H. (2002).
1573:"The Role of Extinction in Evolution"
1232:
1230:
1228:
1226:
1224:
1064:, "a comparative study of omnicide".
260:were an extinct species of the genus
27:Hypothetical end of the human species
7:
6509:
4856:Tipping points in the climate system
4441:Doomsday: 10 Ways the World Will End
4270:"Embracing Death, Opening the World"
4215:. But the lesson is never learned.
2451:"How Close Is Humanity to the Edge?"
616:'s formulation of the controversial
6443:Voluntary Human Extinction Movement
6192:Extinction risk from climate change
4851:Extinction risk from climate change
4750:New World Order (conspiracy theory)
3908:16: Big troubles, imagined and real
3737:Journal of Evolution and Technology
2901:; Yetter Chappell, Richard (2021).
2680:Journal of Evolution and Technology
2244:Rowe, Thomas; Beard, Simon (2018).
1174:Voluntary Human Extinction Movement
1001:Voluntary Human Extinction Movement
978:Voluntary Human Extinction Movement
723:Nick Bostrom, a philosopher at the
439:, deployment of a highly effective
5811:List of fictional doomsday devices
3860:13: Climate change and global risk
2345:Meyer, Robinson (April 29, 2016).
1842:"Global Catastrophic Risks Survey"
1026:Jean-Baptiste Cousin de Grainville
869:(3) A nuclear war that kills 100%.
234:Jean-Baptiste Cousin de Grainville
84:(self-extinction), for example by
25:
4831:Cataclysmic pole shift hypothesis
3961:20: Biotechnology and biosecurity
2744:Salotti, Jean-Marc (April 2022).
6508:
6499:
6498:
6464:Decline in amphibian populations
6433:IUCN Species Survival Commission
6086:
5947:
5946:
5934:
5092:Decline in amphibian populations
4315:Michael Moyer (September 2010).
4211:we rue the deterioration of our
3266:. Council on Foreign Relations.
2784:"Practical application", of the
2611:Bologna, M.; Aquino, G. (2020).
2140:. Random House. pp. 305–6.
1934:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00960.x
1905:Matheny, Jason Gaverick (2007).
1648:Sagan, Carl (January 28, 2009).
1579:. National Academies Press (US).
690:, the late Australian scientist
565:sufficient in scale to cause an
117:advanced artificial intelligence
6139:Human impact on the environment
5443:Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse
4940:Land surface effects on climate
4913:Human impact on the environment
4544:Future of an expanding universe
3644:Tucker, Neely (March 8, 2008).
3232:Lewis, Gregory (May 23, 2018).
2585:Nafeez, Ahmed (July 28, 2020).
2421:Tangalakis-Lippert, Katherine.
1758:. New York: Hachette. 4:15–31.
445:runaway artificial intelligence
6119:Climate variability and change
4195:we have learned that a broken
4070:Catastrophe: Risk and Response
3367:Catastrophe: Risk and Response
2907:Introduction to Utilitarianism
2557:Edwards, Lin (June 23, 2010).
2395:Strick, Katie (May 31, 2023).
1609:Erskine, Hazel Gaudet (1963).
1077:, and the television specials
563:comet or asteroid impact event
242:). In 1863, a few years after
1:
6469:Decline in insect populations
6412:IUCN Red List extinct species
5389:Interpretations of Revelation
5191:Cosmological phase transition
5097:Decline in insect populations
4549:Ultimate fate of the universe
4288:10.1080/08164649.2020.1791689
3981:Bostrom & Cirkovic (2011)
3965:Bostrom & Cirkovic (2011)
3948:Bostrom & Cirkovic (2011)
3928:Bostrom & Cirkovic (2011)
3912:Bostrom & Cirkovic (2011)
3896:Bostrom & Cirkovic (2011)
3880:Bostrom & Cirkovic (2011)
3864:Bostrom & Cirkovic (2011)
3847:Bostrom & Cirkovic (2011)
3834:Bostrom & Cirkovic (2011)
3818:Bostrom & Cirkovic (2011)
3497:not a given or necessary good
3307:. In Canavan, Francis (ed.).
2849:10.1016/j.futures.2009.07.009
2763:10.1016/j.futures.2022.102933
1382:10.1016/j.futures.2019.102495
1199:Di Mardi (October 15, 2020).
842:Placard against omnicide, at
457:vacuum metastability disaster
5844:Future of Humanity Institute
5241:Potentially hazardous object
5141:Interplanetary contamination
4253:The New York Review of Books
4250:, Hachette, 2020, 468 pp.),
4184:The New York Review of Books
3311:. Liberty Fund. p. 192.
2101:10.1016/j.jhevol.2017.11.005
1875:Future of Humanity Institute
1867:"Frequently Asked Questions"
1853:Future of Humanity Institute
1849:FHI Technical Report #2008-1
1615:The Public Opinion Quarterly
983:Some philosophers adopt the
783:Individual vs. species risks
642:Global Challenges Foundation
431:Global catastrophe scenarios
95:to anthropogenic hazard are
5724:Nemesis (hypothetical star)
4873:Global terrestrial stilling
4275:Australian Feminist Studies
3258:Sagan, Carl (Winter 1983).
1592:"The Bomb and Civilization"
109:weapons of mass destruction
101:global nuclear annihilation
6551:
6033:Background extinction rate
5236:Asteroid impact prediction
5211:Heat death of the universe
4621:Mutual assured destruction
4366:10.1038/s41598-019-50145-9
3370:. Oxford University Press.
3152:Economics & Philosophy
2647:10.1038/s41598-020-63657-6
2080:Journal of Human Evolution
1590:Russell, Bertrand (1945).
1263:10.1038/s41598-019-47540-7
1086:Aftermath: Population Zero
1018:
920:preference-satisfactionist
775:
443:, an ecological collapse,
428:
93:many possible contributors
38:
31:
6494:
6355:End-Jurassic or Tithonian
6084:
5928:
5854:Nuclear Threat Initiative
5787:List of apocalyptic films
5630:2011 end times prediction
5362:Prophecy of Seventy Weeks
5357:Abomination of desolation
5231:Asteroid impact avoidance
5061:List of extinction events
4903:Environmental degradation
4690:Technological singularity
4534:
4528:Global catastrophic risks
4479:that looks catastrophic
4414:. Pitchstone Publishing.
4334:Viking ISBN 9780670019977
4181:, Knopf, 2023, 695 pp.),
4171:de Bellaigue, Christopher
4154:Columbia University Press
3779:Global Catastrophic Risks
3575:Wagar, W. Warren (2003).
3322:Weitzman, Martin (2009).
3164:10.1017/S0266267117000062
2955:10.1017/s0953820800004076
2715:10.1017/S1473550417000271
2334:. Arrow Books. p. 9.
2213:10.1177/00368504241272491
1727:Global catastrophic risks
1540:. MIT Press. p. 56.
1405:Moynihan, Thomas (2020).
1095:technological singularity
1009:environmental degradation
823:minimum viable population
700:environmental degradation
684:In a 2010 interview with
553:Natural vs. anthropogenic
407:Global Catastrophic Risks
125:self-replicating nanobots
86:sub-replacement fertility
82:anthropogenic destruction
34:Omnicide (disambiguation)
6407:Lists of extinct species
5849:Future of Life Institute
5751:Resurrection of the dead
5744:Post-tribulation rapture
5126:Colony collapse disorder
4430:Walking Away from Empire
3697:Dinello, Daniel (2005).
3672:Barcella, Laura (2012).
3364:Posner, Richard (2004).
3193:Greaves, Hilary (2017).
3146:Greaves, Hilary (2017).
3053:The Philosophical Review
2810:Wells, Willard. (2009).
1469:The Arch-heretic Marcion
1154:Global catastrophic risk
437:global thermonuclear war
292:, a precursor to modern
249:On the Origin of Species
211:On the Origin of Species
41:Global catastrophic risk
4675:Artificial intelligence
4400:Bloomsbury Publishing.
4075:Oxford University Press
4013:10.1111/1758-5899.12002
3872:Kilbourne, Edwin Dennis
3784:Oxford University Press
3764:(September 29, 2011) .
3481:10.1057/9781137440723_7
3433:Oxford University Press
3392:Oxford University Press
3300:Burke, Edmund (1999) .
3125:10.5840/monist197357134
2976:Todd, Benjamin (2017).
1731:Oxford University Press
1571:Raup, David M. (1995).
935:exponential discounting
648:according to Elon Musk.
6212:Latent extinction risk
5804:List of disaster films
5645:Apocalyptic literature
4745:Malthusian catastrophe
4671:Synthetic intelligence
4472:London Review of Books
4410:Torres, Phil. (2017).
3499:. But considered from
2927:Bostrom, Nick (2009).
2881:Parfit, Derek (1984).
2330:Rees, Martin (2004) .
2169:On What Matters Vol. 2
2046:10.1006/icar.2001.6808
1809:. New York: Hachette.
1689:Reese, Martin (2003).
980:
881:
847:
727:known for his work on
677:As of March 26, 2024,
573:eruptions may cause a
317:
184:expanded the study of
146:principle of plenitude
54:
6169:Paradox of enrichment
6058:Functional extinction
6048:Ecological extinction
5186:Coronal mass ejection
4648:Electromagnetic pulse
4609:Kinetic energy weapon
4487:... and prioritizing
4067:(November 11, 2004).
3957:Chyba, Christopher F.
3554:. pp. 143, 166.
3518:(December 17, 2018).
3238:www.gregoryjlewis.com
3195:"Population axiology"
2796:May 12, 2005, at the
2055:on September 24, 2015
1534:Moynihan, T. (2020).
1500:Welchman, A. (2014).
1169:Speculative evolution
976:
841:
813:Pacific, and even to
776:Further information:
465:increased consumption
307:
232:) and fiction (e.g.,
224:Thomas Robert Malthus
78:large-scale volcanism
49:
6438:Extinction Rebellion
6380:Pliocene–Pleistocene
6262:Cretaceous–Paleogene
6207:Hypothetical species
6197:Extinction threshold
6154:Overabundant species
5588:War of Gog and Magog
5265:Near-Earth supernova
5015:Human overpopulation
4819:Mass mortality event
4713:Anthropogenic hazard
4266:MacCormack, Patricia
3544:MacCormack, Patricia
3004:Sagan, Carl (1983).
2786:Princeton University
1443:The Annotated Origin
1349:The MIT Press Reader
1144:Extinction Rebellion
1070:The World Without Us
1005:Church of Euthanasia
969:Voluntary extinction
950:future generations.
918:argues in 2013 that
844:Extinction Rebellion
725:University of Oxford
696:human overpopulation
512:Homo sapiens sapiens
380:The End of The World
353:Bayesian probability
201:Age of Enlightenment
60:is the hypothetical
6365:Cenomanian-Turonian
6310:Cambrian–Ordovician
6242:Ordovician–Silurian
6149:Mutational meltdown
6134:Habitat destruction
6053:Extinct in the wild
5660:Blood moon prophecy
5453:Number of the Beast
5051:Holocene extinction
4997:Earth Overshoot Day
4945:Ocean acidification
4908:Habitat destruction
4898:Ecological collapse
4604:Kinetic bombardment
4539:Future of the Earth
4358:2019NatSR...915100S
4321:Scientific American
3983:, pp. 481–503.
3967:, pp. 450–480.
3950:, pp. 402–449.
3930:, pp. 381–401.
3914:, pp. 346–362.
3898:, pp. 308–345.
3882:, pp. 287–304.
3866:, pp. 265–286.
3849:, pp. 238–262.
3836:, pp. 222–237.
3820:, pp. 205–221.
3810:Rampino, Michael R.
3651:The Washington Post
3646:"Depopulation Boom"
3552:Bloomsbury Academic
3343:10.1162/rest.91.1.1
3099:Reasons and Persons
2884:Reasons and Persons
2639:2020NatSR..10.7631B
2538:. November 12, 2017
2289:1993Natur.363..315G
2092:2018JHumE.116...75Y
2038:2002Icar..156..562R
1999:2005Obs...125..319A
1926:2007RiskA..27.1335M
1255:2019NatSR...911054S
1164:Holocene extinction
1100:When Worlds Collide
928:accessible universe
890:expand beyond Earth
834:Value of human life
758:Holger Bech Nielsen
702:and climate change.
473:genetic engineering
113:ecological collapse
5975:Doomsday scenarios
5541:Beast of the Earth
5433:Book of Revelation
5221:Virtual black hole
5201:False vacuum decay
5151:Pollinator decline
5114:Biological warfare
5104:Biotechnology risk
4955:Resource depletion
4456:, August 16, 2020.
4345:Scientific Reports
4103:(March 19, 2003).
4065:Posner, Richard A.
3940:Potter, William C.
3920:Cirincione, Joseph
3888:Yudkowsky, Eliezer
3774:Cirkovic, Milan M.
3762:Cirkovic, Milan M.
3525:The New York Times
3473:Palgrave Macmillan
3211:10.1111/phc3.12442
3199:Philosophy Compass
3097:Parfit, D. (1984)
2899:MacAskill, William
2617:Scientific Reports
2449:Purtill, Corinne.
1959:on August 27, 2014
1805:Ord, Toby (2020).
1754:Ord, Toby (2020).
1723:Ćirković, Milan M.
1598:on August 7, 2020.
1243:Scientific Reports
1091:thought experiment
981:
900:future generations
848:
819:nuclear submarines
708:Scientific Reports
606:expert elicitation
469:population decline
358:The discovery of "
318:
135:History of thought
105:biological warfare
70:population decline
55:
6522:
6521:
6474:Extinction symbol
6393:
6392:
6257:Triassic–Jurassic
6227:Extinction events
6103:Extinction vortex
6063:Genetic pollution
5985:
5984:
5816:Zombie apocalypse
5717:Postmillennialism
5512:Great Tribulation
5285:Stellar collision
5246:Near-Earth object
5196:Geomagnetic storm
5164:
5163:
5087:Biodiversity loss
5071:Genetic pollution
5025:
5024:
4814:Biodiversity loss
4777:Societal collapse
4755:Nuclear holocaust
4740:Economic collapse
4723:Doomsday argument
4641:Antimatter weapon
4120:978-0-465-06862-3
4084:978-0-19-534639-8
3975:; Treder, Mike. "
3786:. pp. 1–30.
3766:"1: Introduction"
3708:978-0-292-70986-7
3625:. August 18, 2007
3088:, pp. 23–24.
2332:Our Final Century
2283:(6427): 315–319.
2195:Vinn, O. (2024).
1547:978-1-913029-84-5
1513:978-94-017-9448-0
1479:978-3-16-150268-2
1466:Moll, S. (2010).
1422:978-1-913029-82-1
1129:Societal collapse
1080:Life After People
810:thermonuclear war
797:doomsday argument
748:survivorship bias
740:doomsday argument
618:doomsday argument
542:its ultimate fate
534:stellar evolution
441:biological weapon
402:Milan M. Ćirković
349:Doomsday argument
178:William of Ockham
166:Marcion of Sinope
16:(Redirected from
6542:
6535:Human extinction
6512:
6511:
6502:
6501:
6479:Human extinction
6370:Eocene–Oligocene
6252:Permian–Triassic
6232:
6202:Field of Bullets
6159:Overexploitation
6144:Muller's ratchet
6129:Invasive species
6090:
6078:Pseudoextinction
6073:Local extinction
6012:
6005:
5998:
5989:
5950:
5949:
5941:World portal
5939:
5938:
5900:Financial crisis
5729:Nibiru cataclysm
5707:Premillennialism
5551:Dhul-Suwayqatayn
5519:Son of perdition
5507:Olivet Discourse
5483:Whore of Babylon
5109:Biological agent
5056:Human extinction
5046:Extinction event
5034:
5005:Overexploitation
4935:Land consumption
4930:Land degradation
4797:
4659:Micro black hole
4567:Chemical warfare
4521:
4514:
4507:
4498:
4428:, "Book Review:
4387:
4377:
4324:
4311:
4309:
4307:
4302:on April 5, 2023
4298:. Archived from
4282:(104): 101–115.
4167:
4146:Boulter, Michael
4132:
4096:
4060:
4024:
3984:
3968:
3951:
3931:
3915:
3899:
3883:
3867:
3850:
3837:
3821:
3805:
3753:
3713:
3712:
3694:
3688:
3687:
3669:
3663:
3662:
3660:
3658:
3641:
3635:
3634:
3632:
3630:
3622:The Boston Globe
3613:
3607:
3606:
3572:
3566:
3565:
3540:
3534:
3533:
3512:
3506:
3505:
3461:
3455:
3454:
3419:
3413:
3412:
3378:
3372:
3371:
3361:
3355:
3354:
3328:
3319:
3313:
3312:
3306:
3297:
3291:
3290:
3288:
3286:
3272:10.2307/20041818
3255:
3249:
3248:
3246:
3244:
3229:
3223:
3222:
3190:
3184:
3183:
3143:
3137:
3136:
3108:
3102:
3095:
3089:
3083:
3077:
3076:
3048:
3042:
3041:
3022:10.2307/20041818
3001:
2995:
2994:
2992:
2990:
2973:
2967:
2966:
2948:
2924:
2918:
2917:
2915:
2913:
2895:
2889:
2888:
2878:
2869:
2868:
2832:
2826:
2825:
2812:Apocalypse when?
2807:
2801:
2782:
2776:
2775:
2765:
2741:
2732:
2726:
2720:
2719:
2717:
2693:
2687:
2686:
2675:
2669:
2668:
2658:
2632:
2608:
2602:
2601:
2599:
2597:
2582:
2576:
2575:
2573:
2571:
2554:
2548:
2547:
2545:
2543:
2526:
2520:
2519:
2517:
2515:
2500:
2494:
2493:
2491:
2489:
2472:
2466:
2465:
2463:
2461:
2446:
2440:
2439:
2437:
2435:
2428:Business Insider
2418:
2412:
2411:
2409:
2407:
2392:
2386:
2385:
2383:
2371:
2365:
2364:
2362:
2360:
2342:
2336:
2335:
2327:
2321:
2315:
2309:
2308:
2297:10.1038/363315a0
2270:
2264:
2263:
2261:
2259:
2250:
2241:
2235:
2234:
2224:
2201:Science Progress
2192:
2186:
2185:
2161:
2155:
2154:
2128:
2122:
2121:
2103:
2071:
2065:
2064:
2062:
2060:
2054:
2048:. Archived from
2023:
2014:
2003:
2002:
1984:
1975:
1969:
1968:
1966:
1964:
1958:
1952:. Archived from
1920:(5): 1335–1344.
1911:
1902:
1889:
1888:
1883:
1881:
1871:Existential Risk
1863:
1857:
1856:
1846:
1838:Sandberg, Anders
1830:
1821:
1820:
1802:
1777:
1776:
1751:
1745:
1744:
1715:
1709:
1708:
1686:
1677:
1676:
1674:
1672:
1658:10.2307/20041818
1645:
1639:
1638:
1606:
1600:
1599:
1594:. Archived from
1587:
1581:
1580:
1568:
1559:
1558:
1556:
1554:
1531:
1525:
1524:
1522:
1520:
1497:
1491:
1490:
1488:
1486:
1463:
1457:
1456:
1438:
1429:
1426:
1401:
1360:
1358:
1356:
1339:
1314:
1308:
1293:
1292:
1282:
1234:
1219:
1218:
1213:
1211:
1196:
1139:Extinction event
1111:Steven Spielberg
1034:Le dernier homme
995:, and anarchist
879:
771:
769:
729:existential risk
496:gamma-ray bursts
384:Astronomer Royal
322:Bertrand Russell
313:nuclear test on
182:Gerolamo Cardano
58:Human extinction
21:
6550:
6549:
6545:
6544:
6543:
6541:
6540:
6539:
6525:
6524:
6523:
6518:
6490:
6447:
6416:
6399:Extinct species
6389:
6345:Carnian Pluvial
6290:Great Oxidation
6278:
6221:
6187:Extinction debt
6179:
6173:
6124:Genetic erosion
6107:
6091:
6082:
6021:
6016:
5986:
5981:
5960:Future problems
5933:
5924:
5858:
5827:
5794:Climate fiction
5760:
5635:2012 phenomenon
5618:
5524:Sheep and Goats
5411:2 Thessalonians
5289:
5206:Gamma-ray burst
5160:
5075:
5066:Genetic erosion
5021:
4991:
4982:Water pollution
4950:Ozone depletion
4846:Desertification
4786:
4701:
4636:Doomsday device
4616:Nuclear warfare
4555:
4530:
4525:
4495:
4466:. May 31, 2023.
4446:History Channel
4337:
4314:
4305:
4303:
4264:
4223:Brain, Marshall
4175:Peter Frankopan
4164:
4144:
4140:
4138:Further reading
4135:
4121:
4101:Rees, Martin J.
4099:
4085:
4063:
4049:
4027:
3989:
3971:
3954:
3934:
3918:
3902:
3886:
3870:
3856:Allen, Myles R.
3853:
3840:
3826:Napier, William
3824:
3808:
3794:
3756:
3726:
3722:
3717:
3716:
3709:
3696:
3695:
3691:
3684:
3671:
3670:
3666:
3656:
3654:
3643:
3642:
3638:
3628:
3626:
3615:
3614:
3610:
3582:Utopian Studies
3574:
3573:
3569:
3562:
3542:
3541:
3537:
3514:
3513:
3509:
3491:
3475:. p. 165.
3463:
3462:
3458:
3447:
3421:
3420:
3416:
3406:
3380:
3379:
3375:
3363:
3362:
3358:
3326:
3321:
3320:
3316:
3304:
3299:
3298:
3294:
3284:
3282:
3264:Foreign Affairs
3257:
3256:
3252:
3242:
3240:
3231:
3230:
3226:
3192:
3191:
3187:
3145:
3144:
3140:
3110:
3109:
3105:
3096:
3092:
3084:
3080:
3065:10.2307/2185115
3050:
3049:
3045:
3010:Foreign Affairs
3003:
3002:
2998:
2988:
2986:
2975:
2974:
2970:
2946:10.1.1.429.2849
2926:
2925:
2921:
2911:
2909:
2897:
2896:
2892:
2880:
2879:
2872:
2843:(10): 706–714.
2834:
2833:
2829:
2822:
2809:
2808:
2804:
2798:Wayback Machine
2783:
2779:
2743:
2742:
2735:
2727:
2723:
2695:
2694:
2690:
2682:, vol. 9,
2677:
2676:
2672:
2610:
2609:
2605:
2595:
2593:
2584:
2583:
2579:
2569:
2567:
2556:
2555:
2551:
2541:
2539:
2528:
2527:
2523:
2513:
2511:
2502:
2501:
2497:
2487:
2485:
2484:. July 10, 2023
2474:
2473:
2469:
2459:
2457:
2448:
2447:
2443:
2433:
2431:
2420:
2419:
2415:
2405:
2403:
2394:
2393:
2389:
2373:
2372:
2368:
2358:
2356:
2344:
2343:
2339:
2329:
2328:
2324:
2316:
2312:
2272:
2271:
2267:
2257:
2255:
2248:
2243:
2242:
2238:
2194:
2193:
2189:
2179:
2163:
2162:
2158:
2148:
2130:
2129:
2125:
2073:
2072:
2068:
2058:
2056:
2052:
2021:
2016:
2015:
2006:
1987:The Observatory
1982:
1977:
1976:
1972:
1962:
1960:
1956:
1909:
1904:
1903:
1892:
1879:
1877:
1865:
1864:
1860:
1844:
1832:
1831:
1824:
1817:
1804:
1803:
1780:
1766:
1753:
1752:
1748:
1741:
1725:, eds. (2008).
1717:
1716:
1712:
1705:
1688:
1687:
1680:
1670:
1668:
1647:
1646:
1642:
1608:
1607:
1603:
1589:
1588:
1584:
1570:
1569:
1562:
1552:
1550:
1548:
1533:
1532:
1528:
1518:
1516:
1514:
1499:
1498:
1494:
1484:
1482:
1480:
1465:
1464:
1460:
1453:
1440:
1439:
1432:
1423:
1404:
1365:
1361:
1354:
1352:
1341:
1340:
1317:
1309:
1296:
1236:
1235:
1222:
1209:
1207:
1198:
1197:
1193:
1188:
1183:
1124:
1030:science fantasy
1023:
1017:
971:
955:Martin Weitzman
880:
877:
870:
868:
866:
862:
836:
831:
815:McMurdo Station
806:
785:
780:
767:
765:
614:J. Richard Gott
602:
575:volcanic winter
555:
550:
488:asteroid impact
433:
427:
373:
302:
290:Russian cosmism
142:
137:
74:asteroid impact
44:
37:
28:
23:
22:
15:
12:
11:
5:
6548:
6546:
6538:
6537:
6527:
6526:
6520:
6519:
6517:
6516:
6506:
6495:
6492:
6491:
6489:
6488:
6481:
6476:
6471:
6466:
6461:
6455:
6453:
6449:
6448:
6446:
6445:
6440:
6435:
6430:
6424:
6422:
6418:
6417:
6415:
6414:
6409:
6403:
6401:
6395:
6394:
6391:
6390:
6388:
6387:
6382:
6377:
6375:Middle Miocene
6372:
6367:
6362:
6357:
6352:
6347:
6342:
6340:End-Capitanian
6337:
6332:
6327:
6322:
6317:
6312:
6307:
6302:
6297:
6292:
6286:
6284:
6280:
6279:
6277:
6276:
6275:
6274:
6264:
6259:
6254:
6249:
6244:
6238:
6236:
6229:
6223:
6222:
6220:
6219:
6214:
6209:
6204:
6199:
6194:
6189:
6183:
6181:
6175:
6174:
6172:
6171:
6166:
6161:
6156:
6151:
6146:
6141:
6136:
6131:
6126:
6121:
6115:
6113:
6109:
6108:
6106:
6105:
6099:
6097:
6093:
6092:
6085:
6083:
6081:
6080:
6075:
6070:
6065:
6060:
6055:
6050:
6045:
6040:
6035:
6029:
6027:
6023:
6022:
6017:
6015:
6014:
6007:
6000:
5992:
5983:
5982:
5980:
5979:
5978:
5977:
5972:
5967:
5962:
5957:
5955:Apocalypticism
5944:
5929:
5926:
5925:
5923:
5922:
5917:
5912:
5907:
5902:
5897:
5892:
5887:
5882:
5877:
5872:
5866:
5864:
5860:
5859:
5857:
5856:
5851:
5846:
5841:
5835:
5833:
5829:
5828:
5826:
5825:
5824:
5823:
5813:
5808:
5807:
5806:
5799:Disaster films
5796:
5791:
5790:
5789:
5784:
5774:
5772:Alien invasion
5768:
5766:
5762:
5761:
5759:
5758:
5753:
5748:
5747:
5746:
5741:
5731:
5726:
5721:
5720:
5719:
5714:
5712:Amillennialism
5709:
5699:
5697:Millenarianism
5694:
5693:
5692:
5682:
5677:
5672:
5667:
5662:
5657:
5652:
5650:Apocalypticism
5647:
5642:
5637:
5632:
5626:
5624:
5620:
5619:
5617:
5616:
5615:
5614:
5604:
5599:
5598:
5597:
5596:
5595:
5590:
5585:
5575:
5574:
5573:
5568:
5563:
5558:
5553:
5548:
5546:Dhu al-Qarnayn
5543:
5538:
5528:
5527:
5526:
5521:
5516:
5515:
5514:
5504:
5499:
5494:
5492:Great Apostasy
5489:
5488:
5487:
5486:
5485:
5480:
5475:
5470:
5465:
5460:
5455:
5450:
5445:
5430:
5425:
5424:
5423:
5418:
5408:
5403:
5398:
5393:
5392:
5391:
5381:
5371:
5366:
5365:
5364:
5359:
5349:
5339:
5337:Last Judgement
5334:
5333:
5332:
5327:
5317:
5316:
5315:
5310:
5299:
5297:
5295:Eschatological
5291:
5290:
5288:
5287:
5282:
5277:
5272:
5267:
5262:
5261:
5260:
5255:
5250:
5249:
5248:
5238:
5233:
5223:
5218:
5213:
5208:
5203:
5198:
5193:
5188:
5183:
5178:
5172:
5170:
5166:
5165:
5162:
5161:
5159:
5158:
5153:
5148:
5143:
5138:
5133:
5128:
5123:
5122:
5121:
5116:
5111:
5101:
5100:
5099:
5094:
5083:
5081:
5077:
5076:
5074:
5073:
5068:
5063:
5058:
5053:
5048:
5042:
5040:
5031:
5027:
5026:
5023:
5022:
5020:
5019:
5018:
5017:
5010:Overpopulation
5007:
5001:
4999:
4993:
4992:
4990:
4989:
4987:Water scarcity
4984:
4979:
4974:
4973:
4972:
4962:
4960:Sea level rise
4957:
4952:
4947:
4942:
4937:
4932:
4927:
4926:
4925:
4923:on marine life
4920:
4910:
4905:
4900:
4895:
4890:
4885:
4880:
4878:Global warming
4875:
4870:
4868:Global dimming
4865:
4860:
4859:
4858:
4848:
4843:
4838:
4833:
4828:
4826:Cascade effect
4823:
4822:
4821:
4811:
4805:
4803:
4801:Climate change
4794:
4788:
4787:
4785:
4784:
4779:
4774:
4773:
4772:
4767:
4762:
4752:
4747:
4742:
4737:
4736:
4735:
4730:
4720:
4715:
4709:
4707:
4703:
4702:
4700:
4699:
4694:
4693:
4692:
4687:
4682:
4668:
4667:
4666:
4661:
4651:
4645:
4644:
4643:
4638:
4633:
4631:Doomsday Clock
4628:
4623:
4613:
4612:
4611:
4601:
4596:
4591:
4590:
4589:
4584:
4582:Cyberterrorism
4579:
4569:
4563:
4561:
4557:
4556:
4554:
4553:
4552:
4551:
4541:
4535:
4532:
4531:
4526:
4524:
4523:
4516:
4509:
4501:
4494:
4493:
4467:
4457:
4448:
4437:
4423:
4420:978-1634311427
4408:
4388:
4335:
4325:
4312:
4262:
4237:
4220:
4168:
4163:978-0231128377
4162:
4141:
4139:
4136:
4134:
4133:
4119:
4097:
4083:
4061:
4048:978-0415140430
4047:
4025:
3987:
3986:
3985:
3973:Phoenix, Chris
3969:
3952:
3936:Ackerman, Gary
3932:
3916:
3904:Wilczek, Frank
3900:
3884:
3868:
3854:Frame, David;
3851:
3838:
3822:
3792:
3754:
3723:
3721:
3718:
3715:
3714:
3707:
3689:
3683:978-0982732250
3682:
3664:
3636:
3608:
3589:(1): 178–180.
3567:
3561:978-1350081093
3560:
3535:
3507:
3490:978-1137471116
3489:
3456:
3446:978-0199549269
3445:
3423:Benatar, David
3414:
3405:978-0199549269
3404:
3382:Benatar, David
3373:
3356:
3314:
3292:
3250:
3224:
3205:(11): e12442.
3185:
3158:(3): 391–439.
3138:
3103:
3090:
3078:
3059:(4): 439–484.
3043:
3016:(2): 257–292.
2996:
2968:
2939:(3): 308–314.
2919:
2890:
2870:
2827:
2821:978-0387098364
2820:
2802:
2777:
2733:
2731:, p. 139.
2721:
2708:(2): 183–188.
2688:
2670:
2623:(7631): 7631.
2603:
2577:
2549:
2521:
2495:
2467:
2455:The New Yorker
2441:
2413:
2387:
2366:
2337:
2322:
2320:, p. 146.
2310:
2265:
2236:
2187:
2177:
2156:
2146:
2123:
2066:
2032:(2): 562–569.
2004:
1970:
1890:
1858:
1822:
1815:
1778:
1764:
1746:
1740:978-0199606504
1739:
1710:
1703:
1678:
1640:
1627:10.1086/267159
1621:(2): 155–190.
1601:
1582:
1560:
1546:
1526:
1512:
1492:
1478:
1458:
1452:978-0674032811
1451:
1430:
1428:
1427:
1421:
1402:
1315:
1294:
1220:
1190:
1189:
1187:
1184:
1182:
1181:
1176:
1171:
1166:
1161:
1156:
1151:
1146:
1141:
1136:
1131:
1125:
1123:
1120:
1056:Olaf Stapledon
1019:Main article:
1016:
1013:
970:
967:
963:Richard Posner
959:climate change
875:
835:
832:
830:
827:
805:
802:
784:
781:
774:
773:
761:
736:John A. Leslie
732:
721:
703:
687:The Australian
682:
675:
671:
662:
649:
645:
638:
635:
628:
625:John A. Leslie
621:
601:
600:Risk estimates
598:
554:
551:
549:
546:
504:alien invasion
461:overpopulation
449:nanotechnology
429:Main article:
426:
423:
393:Our Final Hour
372:
369:
360:nuclear winter
345:Brandon Carter
301:
298:
282:'s 1826 novel
256:proposed that
244:Charles Darwin
205:Georges Cuvier
141:
138:
136:
133:
97:climate change
26:
24:
14:
13:
10:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
6547:
6536:
6533:
6532:
6530:
6515:
6507:
6505:
6497:
6496:
6493:
6487:
6486:
6482:
6480:
6477:
6475:
6472:
6470:
6467:
6465:
6462:
6460:
6457:
6456:
6454:
6450:
6444:
6441:
6439:
6436:
6434:
6431:
6429:
6426:
6425:
6423:
6421:Organizations
6419:
6413:
6410:
6408:
6405:
6404:
6402:
6400:
6396:
6386:
6383:
6381:
6378:
6376:
6373:
6371:
6368:
6366:
6363:
6361:
6358:
6356:
6353:
6351:
6348:
6346:
6343:
6341:
6338:
6336:
6333:
6331:
6330:Carboniferous
6328:
6326:
6323:
6321:
6318:
6316:
6313:
6311:
6308:
6306:
6303:
6301:
6298:
6296:
6295:End-Ediacaran
6293:
6291:
6288:
6287:
6285:
6281:
6273:
6270:
6269:
6268:
6265:
6263:
6260:
6258:
6255:
6253:
6250:
6248:
6247:Late Devonian
6245:
6243:
6240:
6239:
6237:
6233:
6230:
6228:
6224:
6218:
6217:Living fossil
6215:
6213:
6210:
6208:
6205:
6203:
6200:
6198:
6195:
6193:
6190:
6188:
6185:
6184:
6182:
6176:
6170:
6167:
6165:
6162:
6160:
6157:
6155:
6152:
6150:
6147:
6145:
6142:
6140:
6137:
6135:
6132:
6130:
6127:
6125:
6122:
6120:
6117:
6116:
6114:
6110:
6104:
6101:
6100:
6098:
6094:
6089:
6079:
6076:
6074:
6071:
6069:
6068:Lazarus taxon
6066:
6064:
6061:
6059:
6056:
6054:
6051:
6049:
6046:
6044:
6043:De-extinction
6041:
6039:
6036:
6034:
6031:
6030:
6028:
6024:
6020:
6013:
6008:
6006:
6001:
5999:
5994:
5993:
5990:
5976:
5973:
5971:
5970:Risk analysis
5968:
5966:
5963:
5961:
5958:
5956:
5953:
5952:
5945:
5943:
5942:
5937:
5931:
5930:
5927:
5921:
5918:
5916:
5915:Social crisis
5913:
5911:
5908:
5906:
5903:
5901:
5898:
5896:
5893:
5891:
5888:
5886:
5883:
5881:
5878:
5876:
5873:
5871:
5868:
5867:
5865:
5861:
5855:
5852:
5850:
5847:
5845:
5842:
5840:
5837:
5836:
5834:
5832:Organizations
5830:
5822:
5819:
5818:
5817:
5814:
5812:
5809:
5805:
5802:
5801:
5800:
5797:
5795:
5792:
5788:
5785:
5783:
5780:
5779:
5778:
5775:
5773:
5770:
5769:
5767:
5763:
5757:
5756:World to come
5754:
5752:
5749:
5745:
5742:
5740:
5737:
5736:
5735:
5732:
5730:
5727:
5725:
5722:
5718:
5715:
5713:
5710:
5708:
5705:
5704:
5703:
5702:Millennialism
5700:
5698:
5695:
5691:
5690:Messianic Age
5688:
5687:
5686:
5683:
5681:
5678:
5676:
5675:Gog and Magog
5673:
5671:
5668:
5666:
5665:Earth Changes
5663:
5661:
5658:
5656:
5653:
5651:
5648:
5646:
5643:
5641:
5638:
5636:
5633:
5631:
5628:
5627:
5625:
5621:
5613:
5610:
5609:
5608:
5605:
5603:
5600:
5594:
5591:
5589:
5586:
5584:
5581:
5580:
5579:
5576:
5572:
5569:
5567:
5564:
5562:
5559:
5557:
5554:
5552:
5549:
5547:
5544:
5542:
5539:
5537:
5534:
5533:
5532:
5529:
5525:
5522:
5520:
5517:
5513:
5510:
5509:
5508:
5505:
5503:
5502:New Jerusalem
5500:
5498:
5495:
5493:
5490:
5484:
5481:
5479:
5478:War in Heaven
5476:
5474:
5473:Two witnesses
5471:
5469:
5466:
5464:
5461:
5459:
5456:
5454:
5451:
5449:
5446:
5444:
5441:
5440:
5439:
5436:
5435:
5434:
5431:
5429:
5426:
5422:
5419:
5417:
5414:
5413:
5412:
5409:
5407:
5404:
5402:
5399:
5397:
5394:
5390:
5387:
5386:
5385:
5382:
5380:
5377:
5376:
5375:
5372:
5370:
5367:
5363:
5360:
5358:
5355:
5354:
5353:
5350:
5348:
5345:
5344:
5343:
5342:Second Coming
5340:
5338:
5335:
5331:
5328:
5326:
5323:
5322:
5321:
5318:
5314:
5311:
5309:
5306:
5305:
5304:
5301:
5300:
5298:
5296:
5292:
5286:
5283:
5281:
5278:
5276:
5273:
5271:
5268:
5266:
5263:
5259:
5256:
5254:
5251:
5247:
5244:
5243:
5242:
5239:
5237:
5234:
5232:
5229:
5228:
5227:
5224:
5222:
5219:
5217:
5214:
5212:
5209:
5207:
5204:
5202:
5199:
5197:
5194:
5192:
5189:
5187:
5184:
5182:
5179:
5177:
5174:
5173:
5171:
5167:
5157:
5154:
5152:
5149:
5147:
5144:
5142:
5139:
5137:
5134:
5132:
5129:
5127:
5124:
5120:
5117:
5115:
5112:
5110:
5107:
5106:
5105:
5102:
5098:
5095:
5093:
5090:
5089:
5088:
5085:
5084:
5082:
5078:
5072:
5069:
5067:
5064:
5062:
5059:
5057:
5054:
5052:
5049:
5047:
5044:
5043:
5041:
5039:
5035:
5032:
5028:
5016:
5013:
5012:
5011:
5008:
5006:
5003:
5002:
5000:
4998:
4994:
4988:
4985:
4983:
4980:
4978:
4975:
4971:
4968:
4967:
4966:
4963:
4961:
4958:
4956:
4953:
4951:
4948:
4946:
4943:
4941:
4938:
4936:
4933:
4931:
4928:
4924:
4921:
4919:
4916:
4915:
4914:
4911:
4909:
4906:
4904:
4901:
4899:
4896:
4894:
4891:
4889:
4886:
4884:
4881:
4879:
4876:
4874:
4871:
4869:
4866:
4864:
4861:
4857:
4854:
4853:
4852:
4849:
4847:
4844:
4842:
4841:Deforestation
4839:
4837:
4834:
4832:
4829:
4827:
4824:
4820:
4817:
4816:
4815:
4812:
4810:
4807:
4806:
4804:
4802:
4798:
4795:
4793:
4789:
4783:
4782:World War III
4780:
4778:
4775:
4771:
4768:
4766:
4763:
4761:
4758:
4757:
4756:
4753:
4751:
4748:
4746:
4743:
4741:
4738:
4734:
4731:
4729:
4726:
4725:
4724:
4721:
4719:
4716:
4714:
4711:
4710:
4708:
4704:
4698:
4697:Transhumanism
4695:
4691:
4688:
4686:
4683:
4681:
4678:
4677:
4676:
4672:
4669:
4665:
4662:
4660:
4657:
4656:
4655:
4652:
4649:
4646:
4642:
4639:
4637:
4634:
4632:
4629:
4627:
4624:
4622:
4619:
4618:
4617:
4614:
4610:
4607:
4606:
4605:
4602:
4600:
4597:
4595:
4592:
4588:
4585:
4583:
4580:
4578:
4575:
4574:
4573:
4570:
4568:
4565:
4564:
4562:
4560:Technological
4558:
4550:
4547:
4546:
4545:
4542:
4540:
4537:
4536:
4533:
4529:
4522:
4517:
4515:
4510:
4508:
4503:
4502:
4499:
4492:(p. 19.)
4490:
4486:
4482:
4478:
4474:
4473:
4468:
4465:
4461:
4458:
4455:
4452:
4449:
4447:
4443:
4442:
4438:
4435:
4431:
4427:
4424:
4421:
4417:
4413:
4409:
4407:
4403:
4399:
4397:
4392:
4389:
4385:
4381:
4376:
4371:
4367:
4363:
4359:
4355:
4351:
4347:
4346:
4341:
4336:
4333:
4329:
4328:Plait, Philip
4326:
4322:
4318:
4313:
4301:
4297:
4293:
4289:
4285:
4281:
4277:
4276:
4271:
4267:
4263:
4259:
4255:
4254:
4249:
4245:
4241:
4238:
4236:
4235:9781454939962
4232:
4229:Union Square
4228:
4224:
4221:
4218:
4214:
4210:
4206:
4202:
4198:
4194:
4190:
4186:
4185:
4180:
4176:
4172:
4169:
4165:
4159:
4155:
4151:
4147:
4143:
4142:
4137:
4130:
4126:
4122:
4116:
4112:
4108:
4107:
4102:
4098:
4094:
4090:
4086:
4080:
4076:
4072:
4071:
4066:
4062:
4058:
4054:
4050:
4044:
4040:
4036:
4035:
4030:
4026:
4022:
4018:
4014:
4010:
4006:
4002:
4001:
4000:Global Policy
3996:
3992:
3991:Bostrom, Nick
3988:
3982:
3978:
3974:
3970:
3966:
3962:
3958:
3953:
3949:
3945:
3941:
3937:
3933:
3929:
3925:
3921:
3917:
3913:
3909:
3905:
3901:
3897:
3893:
3889:
3885:
3881:
3877:
3873:
3869:
3865:
3861:
3857:
3852:
3848:
3844:
3841:Dar, Arnon. "
3839:
3835:
3831:
3827:
3823:
3819:
3815:
3811:
3807:
3806:
3803:
3799:
3795:
3793:9780199606504
3789:
3785:
3781:
3780:
3775:
3771:
3770:Bostrom, Nick
3767:
3763:
3759:
3758:Bostrom, Nick
3755:
3751:
3747:
3743:
3739:
3738:
3733:
3729:
3728:Bostrom, Nick
3725:
3724:
3719:
3710:
3704:
3700:
3693:
3690:
3685:
3679:
3675:
3668:
3665:
3653:
3652:
3647:
3640:
3637:
3624:
3623:
3618:
3612:
3609:
3604:
3600:
3596:
3592:
3588:
3584:
3583:
3578:
3571:
3568:
3563:
3557:
3553:
3549:
3545:
3539:
3536:
3532:
3527:
3526:
3521:
3517:
3511:
3508:
3504:
3502:
3498:
3492:
3486:
3482:
3478:
3474:
3470:
3466:
3460:
3457:
3453:
3448:
3442:
3438:
3434:
3430:
3429:
3424:
3418:
3415:
3411:
3407:
3401:
3397:
3393:
3389:
3388:
3383:
3377:
3374:
3369:
3368:
3360:
3357:
3352:
3348:
3344:
3340:
3336:
3332:
3325:
3318:
3315:
3310:
3303:
3296:
3293:
3281:
3277:
3273:
3269:
3265:
3261:
3254:
3251:
3239:
3235:
3228:
3225:
3220:
3216:
3212:
3208:
3204:
3200:
3196:
3189:
3186:
3181:
3177:
3173:
3169:
3165:
3161:
3157:
3153:
3149:
3142:
3139:
3134:
3130:
3126:
3122:
3118:
3114:
3107:
3104:
3100:
3094:
3091:
3087:
3082:
3079:
3074:
3070:
3066:
3062:
3058:
3054:
3047:
3044:
3039:
3035:
3031:
3027:
3023:
3019:
3015:
3011:
3007:
3000:
2997:
2985:
2984:
2979:
2972:
2969:
2964:
2960:
2956:
2952:
2947:
2942:
2938:
2934:
2930:
2923:
2920:
2908:
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2537:
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2531:
2525:
2522:
2510:. May 1, 2023
2509:
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2499:
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2483:
2482:
2481:The Economist
2477:
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2184:
2180:
2178:9780199681044
2174:
2170:
2166:
2165:Parfit, Derek
2160:
2157:
2153:
2149:
2147:0-679-43841-6
2143:
2139:
2138:
2137:Pale Blue Dot
2133:
2127:
2124:
2119:
2115:
2111:
2107:
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2097:
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2020:
2013:
2011:
2009:
2005:
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1996:
1992:
1988:
1981:
1974:
1971:
1955:
1951:
1947:
1943:
1939:
1935:
1931:
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1923:
1919:
1915:
1914:Risk Analysis
1908:
1901:
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1887:
1876:
1872:
1868:
1862:
1859:
1854:
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1843:
1839:
1835:
1834:Bostrom, Nick
1829:
1827:
1823:
1818:
1816:9780316484916
1812:
1808:
1801:
1799:
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1795:
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1765:9780316484916
1761:
1757:
1750:
1747:
1742:
1736:
1732:
1728:
1724:
1720:
1719:Bostrom, Nick
1714:
1711:
1706:
1704:0-465-06863-4
1700:
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1179:World War III
1177:
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1002:
998:
994:
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989:David Benatar
986:
979:
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845:
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833:
828:
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782:
779:
762:
759:
755:
754:
749:
745:
741:
737:
733:
730:
726:
722:
718:
715:and resource
714:
713:deforestation
710:
709:
704:
701:
697:
693:
689:
688:
683:
680:
676:
672:
669:
668:
667:The Economist
663:
660:
659:
654:
650:
646:
643:
639:
636:
633:
629:
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619:
615:
611:
610:
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594:
589:
583:
581:
576:
572:
568:
567:impact winter
564:
559:
552:
547:
545:
543:
539:
535:
530:
528:
524:
523:
518:
514:
513:
509:Humans (e.g.
507:
505:
501:
497:
493:
489:
485:
482:
481:supervolcanic
478:
474:
470:
466:
462:
458:
454:
450:
446:
442:
438:
432:
424:
422:
419:
418:
414:'s 2020 book
413:
409:
408:
403:
399:
395:
394:
389:
385:
381:
378:'s 1996 book
377:
371:Post-Cold War
370:
368:
365:
361:
356:
354:
351:, which used
350:
347:proposed the
346:
342:
341:
340:Silent Spring
337:'s 1962 book
336:
335:Rachel Carson
332:
328:
323:
316:
312:
311:
306:
299:
297:
295:
294:transhumanism
291:
287:
286:
281:
277:
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269:
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264:
259:
255:
251:
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245:
241:
240:
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225:
220:
217:
213:
212:
206:
202:
197:
195:
194:Edmond Halley
191:
187:
183:
179:
175:
171:
167:
163:
159:
155:
151:
147:
139:
134:
132:
128:
126:
122:
121:biotechnology
118:
114:
110:
106:
102:
98:
94:
89:
87:
83:
79:
75:
71:
67:
66:human species
63:
59:
52:
48:
42:
35:
30:
19:
6483:
6478:
6459:Anthropocene
6300:End-Botomian
6180:and concepts
6038:Coextinction
5932:
5875:Cyberwarfare
5593:Third Temple
5448:Lake of fire
5258:Rogue planet
5226:Impact event
5216:Proton decay
5169:Astronomical
5119:Bioterrorism
5055:
4965:Supervolcano
4863:Flood basalt
4809:Anoxic event
4718:Collapsology
4706:Sociological
4577:Cyberwarfare
4485:fossil fuels
4470:
4454:Live Science
4440:
4433:
4429:
4426:Michel Weber
4411:
4394:
4352:(1): 15100.
4349:
4343:
4331:
4320:
4306:February 20,
4304:. Retrieved
4300:the original
4279:
4273:
4251:
4247:
4226:
4182:
4178:
4149:
4105:
4069:
4033:
4029:Leslie, John
4007:(1): 15–31.
4004:
3998:
3955:Nouri, Ali;
3778:
3741:
3735:
3698:
3692:
3673:
3667:
3655:. Retrieved
3649:
3639:
3627:. Retrieved
3620:
3611:
3586:
3580:
3570:
3547:
3538:
3529:
3523:
3510:
3500:
3496:
3494:
3468:
3465:Best, Steven
3459:
3450:
3427:
3417:
3409:
3386:
3376:
3366:
3359:
3334:
3330:
3317:
3308:
3295:
3283:. Retrieved
3263:
3253:
3241:. Retrieved
3237:
3227:
3202:
3198:
3188:
3155:
3151:
3141:
3119:(1): 62–86.
3116:
3112:
3106:
3093:
3086:Bostrom 2013
3081:
3056:
3052:
3046:
3013:
3009:
2999:
2987:. Retrieved
2983:80,000 Hours
2981:
2971:
2936:
2932:
2922:
2910:. Retrieved
2906:
2893:
2883:
2840:
2836:
2830:
2811:
2805:
2780:
2753:
2749:
2724:
2705:
2701:
2691:
2683:
2679:
2673:
2620:
2616:
2606:
2594:. Retrieved
2590:
2580:
2568:. Retrieved
2562:
2552:
2540:. Retrieved
2533:
2524:
2512:. Retrieved
2507:
2498:
2486:. Retrieved
2479:
2470:
2458:. Retrieved
2454:
2444:
2432:. Retrieved
2426:
2416:
2404:. Retrieved
2401:The Standard
2400:
2390:
2369:
2357:. Retrieved
2352:The Atlantic
2350:
2340:
2331:
2325:
2313:
2280:
2274:
2268:
2256:. Retrieved
2252:
2239:
2204:
2200:
2190:
2182:
2168:
2159:
2151:
2135:
2126:
2083:
2079:
2069:
2059:February 14,
2057:. Retrieved
2050:the original
2029:
2025:
1990:
1986:
1973:
1961:. Retrieved
1954:the original
1917:
1913:
1885:
1878:. Retrieved
1870:
1861:
1848:
1806:
1772:Nick Bostrom
1769:
1755:
1749:
1726:
1713:
1690:
1669:. Retrieved
1643:
1618:
1614:
1604:
1596:the original
1585:
1576:
1551:. Retrieved
1536:
1529:
1517:. Retrieved
1502:
1495:
1483:. Retrieved
1468:
1461:
1442:
1407:
1373:
1367:
1353:. Retrieved
1347:
1311:Bostrom 2013
1249:(1): 11054.
1246:
1242:
1215:
1210:November 11,
1208:. Retrieved
1204:
1194:
1159:Great Filter
1114:
1104:
1098:
1084:
1078:
1075:Alan Weisman
1068:
1066:
1059:
1047:The Last Man
1045:
1042:Mary Shelley
1038:The Last Man
1037:
1033:
1024:
985:antinatalist
982:
952:
947:Edmund Burke
943:
932:
924:
916:Nick Bostrom
914:Philosopher
913:
908:Robert Adams
906:Philosopher
905:
894:
882:
878:Derek Parfit
872:
864:
860:
855:Derek Parfit
852:
849:
807:
792:
789:Joshua Knobe
786:
751:
734:Philosopher
706:
692:Frank Fenner
685:
665:
656:
603:
584:
571:supervolcano
560:
556:
531:
520:
510:
508:
434:
415:
405:
398:Nick Bostrom
391:
379:
374:
357:
338:
319:
315:Bikini Atoll
310:Castle Romeo
308:
285:The Last Man
283:
280:Mary Shelley
261:
258:Neanderthals
254:William King
247:
239:The Last Man
237:
227:
221:
209:
198:
170:antinatalism
143:
129:
91:Some of the
90:
68:, either by
57:
56:
29:
6305:Dresbachian
5951:Categories
5920:Survivalism
5607:Zoroastrian
5463:Seven seals
5458:Seven bowls
5384:Historicism
5280:Solar flare
5156:Overfishing
5131:Defaunation
4918:coral reefs
4680:AI takeover
4599:Nanoweapons
4587:Cybergeddon
4572:Cyberattack
4481:uncertainty
4199:aggravates
4197:environment
4111:Basic Books
3337:(1): 1–19.
2729:Leslie 1996
2570:January 10,
2318:Leslie 1996
2132:Sagan, Carl
1993:: 319–322.
1695:Basic Books
1553:October 19,
1355:October 11,
1134:Eschatology
993:Steven Best
885:utilitarian
744:frequentist
717:consumption
674:moratorium.
632:Martin Rees
548:Probability
538:is expected
536:of the Sun
500:solar flare
455:scenario),
451:(such as a
388:Martin Rees
376:John Leslie
331:cobalt bomb
327:Leo Szilard
190:probability
51:Nuclear war
6385:Quaternary
6019:Extinction
5880:Depression
5870:Ransomware
5685:Messianism
5655:Armageddon
5640:Apocalypse
5428:Antichrist
5416:Man of sin
5313:Three Ages
5176:Big Crunch
5038:Extinction
5030:Biological
4792:Ecological
4664:Strangelet
4489:democratic
4406:1526600218
4057:1158823437
3435:. p.
3394:. p.
3113:The Monist
2989:January 8,
2912:August 12,
2814:. Praxis.
2756:: 102933.
2630:2006.12202
2460:January 8,
2381:1705.08807
2258:August 26,
2207:(3): 1–6.
1671:August 11,
1376:: 102495.
1362:See also:
1186:References
1149:Gendercide
1061:Star Maker
1015:In fiction
896:Carl Sagan
865:(1) Peace.
804:Difficulty
588:Carl Sagan
498:, extreme
447:, runaway
390:published
364:Carl Sagan
300:Atomic era
272:Lord Byron
246:published
174:Al-Ghazali
6164:Overshoot
6026:Phenomena
5765:Fictional
5612:Saoshyant
5497:New Earth
5468:The Beast
5401:Preterism
5374:Christian
5330:Kali Yuga
5275:Micronova
5270:Hypernova
5136:Dysgenics
4977:Verneshot
4883:Hypercane
4626:Dead Hand
4391:Ord, Toby
4296:221790005
4240:Holt, Jim
4217:Denialism
4201:political
4193:Akkadians
4093:224729961
4039:Routledge
4021:1758-5899
3802:740989645
3750:1541-0099
3595:1045-991X
3516:May, Todd
3351:216093786
3285:August 4,
3243:August 7,
3219:1747-9991
3172:0266-2671
3038:151058846
2941:CiteSeerX
2857:144553194
2792:, p. 39.
2772:247718308
2596:August 2,
2542:March 26,
2535:Metaculus
2434:March 31,
2359:April 30,
2110:0047-2484
2086:: 75–94.
1413:MIT Press
1398:213388167
1390:0016-3287
1271:2045-2322
679:Metaculus
651:In 2020,
630:In 2003,
623:In 1996,
593:Olev Vinn
517:evolution
492:supernova
490:, nearby
162:Lucretius
158:Aristotle
150:Aristotle
80:, or via
6529:Category
6504:Category
6452:See also
6350:Toarcian
6315:Ireviken
6272:Timeline
6267:Holocene
6178:Theories
5905:Pandemic
5890:Epidemic
5885:Droughts
5739:Prewrath
5670:End time
5536:Al-Qa'im
5421:Katechon
5406:2 Esdras
5396:Idealism
5379:Futurism
5308:Maitreya
5303:Buddhist
5146:Pandemic
4594:Gray goo
4477:politics
4393:(2020).
4384:31636277
4268:(2020).
4258:Jim Holt
4244:Toby Ord
4205:economic
4191:and the
4148:(2005).
4129:51315429
4031:(1996).
3993:(2013).
3776:(eds.).
3730:(2002).
3657:July 20,
3629:July 20,
3603:20718566
3546:(2020).
3425:(2008).
3384:(2008).
3280:20041818
3180:21730172
3133:11661014
3030:20041818
2963:15860897
2933:Utilitas
2794:Archived
2665:32376879
2564:Phys.org
2488:July 10,
2231:39105260
2222:11307330
2167:(2011).
2134:(1994).
2118:29477183
1950:14265396
1942:18076500
1880:July 26,
1840:(2008).
1666:20041818
1519:June 11,
1485:June 11,
1289:31363134
1205:BBC News
1122:See also
1058:'s 1937
1052:pandemic
1044:'s 1826
1028:'s 1805
1003:and the
997:Todd May
876:—
753:a priori
653:Toby Ord
527:hominids
484:eruption
477:pandemic
453:grey goo
412:Toby Ord
276:Darkness
268:Romantic
18:Omnicide
6514:Commons
6335:Olson's
5965:Hazards
5863:General
5734:Rapture
5583:Messiah
5571:Sufyani
5561:Israfil
5531:Islamic
5369:Messiah
5347:1 Enoch
5181:Big Rip
4893:Ecocide
4888:Ice age
4444:(2016)
4375:6803761
4354:Bibcode
4330:(2008)
4225:(2020)
3720:Sources
3452:humans.
3073:2185115
2865:1775342
2837:Futures
2788:paper:
2750:Futures
2656:7203172
2635:Bibcode
2406:May 31,
2305:4252750
2285:Bibcode
2088:Bibcode
2034:Bibcode
1995:Bibcode
1963:July 1,
1922:Bibcode
1635:2746913
1369:Futures
1280:6667434
1251:Bibcode
1089:pose a
64:of the
6360:Aptian
6112:Causes
6096:Models
5895:Famine
5821:Zombie
5623:Others
5578:Jewish
5556:Dajjal
5438:Events
5352:Daniel
5253:winter
5080:Others
4970:winter
4770:winter
4765:famine
4760:cobalt
4418:
4404:
4382:
4372:
4294:
4233:
4160:
4127:
4117:
4091:
4081:
4055:
4045:
4019:
3979:". In
3963:". In
3946:". In
3926:". In
3910:". In
3894:". In
3878:". In
3862:". In
3845:". In
3832:". In
3816:". In
3800:
3790:
3748:
3705:
3680:
3601:
3593:
3558:
3487:
3443:
3402:
3349:
3278:
3217:
3178:
3170:
3131:
3071:
3036:
3028:
2961:
2943:
2863:
2855:
2818:
2770:
2663:
2653:
2514:May 1,
2303:
2276:Nature
2229:
2219:
2175:
2144:
2116:
2108:
2026:Icarus
1948:
1940:
1813:
1762:
1737:
1701:
1664:
1633:
1544:
1510:
1476:
1449:
1419:
1396:
1388:
1287:
1277:
1269:
1106:R.U.R.
1054:, and
1032:novel
846:(2018)
829:Ethics
525:or of
425:Causes
266:. The
216:Darwin
180:, and
160:, and
111:, and
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