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Backus–Kehoe–Kydland puzzle

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344: 93:(1996) reports average correlation of OECD countries with world consumption (35 “benchmark” countries) of .43, whereas the average OECD country’s output correlation with world benchmark is 0.52. The really puzzling part of these results is not that consumption levels are not perfectly correlated, but that they are less correlated than output. Apparently, there is hardly any risk sharing. 128:(1995) suggests two means of breaking the link between prices and quantities and making it hard for households to smooth consumption by trade. The first is nontraded goods: Suppose households like to consume goods that cannot be traded, like some services. If there is a positive technology shock raising their supply, they can’t 132:
of these goods by exporting them abroad. The second is "taste shocks": If consumption rises in one country without any change in the economic environment, it will borrow abroad, driving up the interest rate and inducing the foreign country to cut back on its consumption. So consumption could be
66:, country-specific output risks should be pooled and domestic consumption growth should not depend heavily on country-specific income shocks. So according to theory we should observe that consumption is much more correlated across countries than output. What 85:
consumption and output for 11 advanced countries relative to the US. The measured average consumption correlation was .19, whereas the average output correlation was .31.
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Obstfeld, Maurice; Rogoff, Kenneth (2000), "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?", in Bernanke, Ben; Rogoff, Kenneth (eds.),
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found in their article from 1992 was the opposite, namely that consumption is much less correlated across countries than output.
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Obstfeld and Rogoff (2000) identifies this as one of the six major puzzles in international economics. The others are the
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Backus, David K.; Kehoe, Patrick J.; Kydland, Finn E. (1995), "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence", in
82: 310:(1995), "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements", 109: 414: 97: 312: 105: 101: 39: 59: 274: 129: 71: 113: 321: 176: 47: 112:, and the Baxter-Stockman neutrality of exchange rate regime puzzle. It is also related to the 254: 230: 202: 355: 289: 194: 168: 86: 17: 67: 63: 351: 223: 90: 398: 293: 180: 75: 151: 307: 275:"Consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non-traded goods" 125: 43: 343: 325: 172: 81:
Backus, Kehoe, and Kydland (1992) calculate the correlation of
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Backus, David K.; Kehoe, Patrick J.; Kydland, Finn E. (1992),
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the purchasing power and exchange rate disconnect puzzle
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Feldstein-Horioka savings-investment correlations puzzle
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Backus–Kehoe–Kydland consumption correlation puzzle
222: 114:Backus-Smith consumption-real exchange rate puzzle 253:, vol. 15, The MIT Press, pp. 339–390, 379: 120:Attempts to account for the perceived anomaly 8: 273:Backus, David K.; Smith, Gregor W. (1993), 225:Foundations of International Macroeconomics 221:Obstfeld, Maurice; Rogoff, Kenneth (1996), 386: 372: 133:negatively correlated across countries. 64:complete set of state-contingent markets 142: 7: 340: 338: 199:Frontiers of Business Cycle Research 152:"International Real Business Cycles" 358:. You can help Knowledge (XXG) by 282:Journal of International Economics 25: 342: 251:NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000 201:, Princeton University Press, 1: 410:International macroeconomics 294:10.1016/0022-1996(93)90021-O 160:Journal of Political Economy 18:Backus-Kehoe-Kydland puzzle 436: 337: 38:, is the observation that 98:home bias in trade puzzle 62:, i.e. an economy with a 350:This article related to 313:American Economic Review 130:smooth their consumption 102:equity home bias puzzle 46:across countries than 405:International finance 420:Macroeconomics stubs 60:Arrow–Debreu economy 34:, also known as the 306:Stockman, Alan C.; 30:In economics, the 367: 366: 260:978-0-262-02503-4 236:978-0-262-15047-7 229:, The MIT Press, 208:978-0-691-04323-4 16:(Redirected from 427: 415:Economic puzzles 388: 381: 374: 346: 339: 329: 328: 303: 297: 296: 288:(3–4): 297–316, 279: 270: 264: 263: 246: 240: 239: 228: 218: 212: 211: 190: 184: 183: 156: 147: 27:Economics puzzle 21: 435: 434: 430: 429: 428: 426: 425: 424: 395: 394: 393: 392: 335: 333: 332: 308:Tesar, Linda L. 305: 304: 300: 277: 272: 271: 267: 261: 248: 247: 243: 237: 220: 219: 215: 209: 192: 191: 187: 154: 149: 148: 144: 139: 122: 56: 28: 23: 22: 15: 12: 11: 5: 433: 431: 423: 422: 417: 412: 407: 397: 396: 391: 390: 383: 376: 368: 365: 364: 352:macroeconomics 347: 331: 330: 320:(1): 168–185, 298: 265: 259: 241: 235: 213: 207: 185: 173:10.1086/261838 167:(4): 745–775, 141: 140: 138: 135: 121: 118: 55: 52: 26: 24: 14: 13: 10: 9: 6: 4: 3: 2: 432: 421: 418: 416: 413: 411: 408: 406: 403: 402: 400: 389: 384: 382: 377: 375: 370: 369: 363: 361: 357: 353: 348: 345: 341: 336: 327: 323: 319: 315: 314: 309: 302: 299: 295: 291: 287: 283: 276: 269: 266: 262: 256: 252: 245: 242: 238: 232: 227: 226: 217: 214: 210: 204: 200: 196: 189: 186: 182: 178: 174: 170: 166: 162: 161: 153: 146: 143: 136: 134: 131: 127: 124:Stockman and 119: 117: 115: 111: 107: 103: 99: 94: 92: 88: 84: 79: 77: 73: 69: 65: 61: 53: 51: 49: 45: 42:is much less 41: 37: 33: 19: 360:expanding it 349: 334: 317: 311: 301: 285: 281: 268: 250: 244: 224: 216: 198: 188: 164: 158: 145: 123: 95: 80: 57: 35: 31: 29: 195:Cooley, Tom 83:HP-filtered 40:consumption 399:Categories 137:References 44:correlated 36:BKK puzzle 54:Statement 181:55482662 87:Obstfeld 326:2118002 197:(ed.), 76:Kydland 324:  257:  233:  205:  179:  104:, the 100:, the 91:Rogoff 68:Backus 58:In an 48:output 354:is a 322:JSTOR 278:(PDF) 177:S2CID 155:(PDF) 126:Tesar 72:Kehoe 356:stub 255:ISBN 231:ISBN 203:ISBN 89:and 74:and 290:doi 169:doi 165:100 401:: 318:85 316:, 286:35 284:, 280:, 175:, 163:, 157:, 116:. 108:, 70:, 50:. 387:e 380:t 373:v 362:. 292:: 171:: 20:)

Index

Backus-Kehoe-Kydland puzzle
consumption
correlated
output
Arrow–Debreu economy
complete set of state-contingent markets
Backus
Kehoe
Kydland
HP-filtered
Obstfeld
Rogoff
home bias in trade puzzle
equity home bias puzzle
Feldstein-Horioka savings-investment correlations puzzle
the purchasing power and exchange rate disconnect puzzle
Backus-Smith consumption-real exchange rate puzzle
Tesar
smooth their consumption
"International Real Business Cycles"
Journal of Political Economy
doi
10.1086/261838
S2CID
55482662
Cooley, Tom
ISBN
978-0-691-04323-4
Foundations of International Macroeconomics
ISBN

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