Demographic transition - Knowledge (XXG)

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certain demographic dynamism, with a growth rate of 2.4% between 2000 and 2005, above the European average. More than two-thirds of that growth can be ascribed to a natural increase resulting from high fertility and birth rates. In contrast, France is one of the developed nations whose migratory balance is rather weak, which is an original feature at the European level. Several interrelated reasons account for such singularities, in particular the impact of pro-family policies accompanied by greater unmarried households and out-of-wedlock births. These general demographic trends parallel equally important changes in regional demographics. Since 1982 the same significant tendencies have occurred throughout mainland France: demographic stagnation in the least-populated rural regions and industrial regions in the northeast, with strong growth in the southwest and along the Atlantic coast, plus dynamism in metropolitan areas. Shifts in population between regions account for most of the differences in growth. The varying demographic evolution regions can be analyzed though the filter of several parameters, including residential facilities, economic growth, and urban dynamism, which yield several distinct regional profiles. The distribution of the French population therefore seems increasingly defined not only by interregional mobility but also by the residential preferences of individual households. These challenges, linked to configurations of population and the dynamics of distribution, inevitably raise the issue of town and country planning. The most recent census figures show that an outpouring of the urban population means that fewer rural areas are continuing to register a negative migratory flow – two-thirds of rural communities have shown some since 2000. The spatial demographic expansion of large cities amplifies the process of

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fell at an unprecedented rate, which had not been experienced by any other population in a comparable time span. The birth rate fell from 6.6 births per women before 1970 to 2.2 births per women in 1980.The rapid fertility decline in China was caused by government policy: in particular the "later, longer, fewer" policy of the early 1970s and in the late 1970s the one-child policy was also enacted which highly influence China demographic transition. As the demographic dividend gradually disappeared, the government abandoned the one-child policy in 2011 and fully lifted the two-child policy from 2015.The two-child policy has had some positive effects on the fertility which causes fertility constantly to increase until 2018.However fertility started to decline after 2018 and meanwhile there was no significant change in mortality in recent 30 years.

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population levels than the adult mortality rate, increased from 1820 due to disease, malnutrition, and stress, all of which stemmed from state forced labor policies. Available estimates indicate little if any population growth for Madagascar between 1820 and 1895. The demographic "crisis" in Africa, ascribed by critics of the demographic transition theory to the colonial era, stemmed in Madagascar from the policies of the imperial Merina regime, which in this sense formed a link to the French regime of the colonial era. Campbell thus questions the underlying assumptions governing the debate about historical demography in Africa and suggests that the demographic impact of political forces be reevaluated in terms of their changing interaction with "natural" demographic influences.

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very low levels of sub-replacement fertility. In such historically patriarchal societies, free partner choice is to be avoided, and hence there is a strong stigma against pre-marital cohabitation. However, after the turn of the century it was noted that cohabitation did develop in Japan, China, Taiwan and the Philippines. The proportions are still moderate, and pregnancies in cohabiting unions are typically followed by shot-gun marriages or abortions. Parenthood among cohabitants is still very rare. Finally, Hindu and Muslim countries can reach replacement level fertility, but no significant fertility postponement or take off of pre-marital cohabitation have occurred. Hence they are completing the FDT and are not in any type of initiation phase of the SDT.

467:, an increase in the status and education of women, a reduction in the value of children's work, an increase in parental investment in the education of children and other social changes. Population growth begins to level off. The birth rate decline in developed countries started in the late 19th century in northern Europe. While improvements in contraception do play a role in birth rate decline, contraceptives were not generally available nor widely used in the 19th century and as a result likely did not play a significant role in the decline then. It is important to note that birth rate decline is caused also by a transition in values; not just because of the availability of contraceptives. 1247:

to 133 million, and continued to grow until the First World War and the turmoil that followed. Russia then quickly transitioned through stage three. Though fertility rates rebounded initially and almost reached 7 children/woman in the mid-1920s, they were depressed by the 1931–33 famine, crashed due to the Second World War in 1941, and only rebounded to a sustained level of 3 children/woman after the war. By 1970 Russia was firmly in stage four, with crude birth rates and crude death rates on the order of 15/1000 and 9/1000 respectively. Bizarrely, however, the birth rate entered a state of constant flux, repeatedly surpassing the 20/1000 as well as falling below 12/1000.

274:. The demographic transition has occurred in most of the world over the past two centuries, bringing the unprecedented population growth of the post-Malthusian period, then reducing birth rates and population growth significantly in all regions of the world. The demographic transition strengthens economic growth process by three changes: (i) reduced dilution of capital and land stock, (ii) increased investment in human capital, and (iii) increased size of the labor force relative to the total population and changed age population distribution. Although this shift has occurred in many 432:. The improvements specific to food supply typically include selective breeding and crop rotation and farming techniques. Numerous improvements in public health reduce mortality, especially childhood mortality. Prior to the mid-20th century, these improvements in public health were primarily in the areas of food handling, water supply, sewage, and personal hygiene. One of the variables often cited is the increase in female literacy combined with public health education programs which emerged in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. In 749:

household and make an increasingly limited contribution to the household, as school children are increasingly exempted from the expectation of making a significant contribution to domestic work. Even in equatorial Africa, children (age under 5) now required to have clothes and shoes, and may even require school uniforms. Parents begin to consider it a duty to buy children(s) books and toys, partly due to education and access to family planning, people begin to reassess their need for children and their ability to raise them.

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high (stage one), the infant mortality rate is very high, often above 200 deaths per 1000 children born. When the death rate falls or improves, this may include lower infant mortality rate and increased child survival. Over time, as individuals with increased survival rates age, there may also be an increase in the number of older children, teenagers, and young adults. This implies that there is an increase in the fertile population proportion which, with constant

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death rates tended to match birth rates, often exceeding 40 per 1000 per year. Children contributed to the economy of the household from an early age by carrying water, firewood, and messages, caring for younger siblings, sweeping, washing dishes, preparing food, and working in the fields. Raising a child cost little more than feeding him or her; there were no education or entertainment expenses. Thus, the total

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education was accommodated by an active public school building program. The interwar agricultural depression aggravated traditional income inequality, raising fertility and impeding the spread of mass schooling. Landlordism collapsed in the wake of de-colonization, and the consequent reduction in inequality accelerated human and physical capital accumulation, hence leading to growth in South Korea.

569: 132: 754: 1000:(that is, below 2.1–2.2 children per woman). Replacement fertility is generally slightly higher than 2 (the level which replaces the two parents, achieving equilibrium) both because boys are born more often than girls (about 1.05–1.1 to 1), and to compensate for deaths prior to full reproduction. Many European and East Asian countries now have higher death rates than birth rates. 36: 1228:, was the predominant demographic influence. However, the impact of the state was felt through natural forces, and it varied over time. In the late 18th and early 19th centuries Merina state policies stimulated agricultural production, which helped to create a larger and healthier population and laid the foundation for Merina military and economic expansion within Madagascar. 1061:

population in the year 2300; estimates ranged from a "low estimate" of 2.3 billion (tending to −0.32% per year) to a "high estimate" of 36.4 billion (tending to +0.54% per year), which were contrasted with a deliberately "unrealistic" illustrative "constant fertility" scenario of 134 trillion (obtained if 1995–2000 fertility rates stay constant into the far future).

1070: 4625: 1015:(HDI), and birth rates had reversed at very high levels of development. In many countries with very high levels of development, fertility rates were approaching two children per woman in the early 2000s. However, fertility rates declined significantly in many very high development countries between 2010 and 2018, including in countries with high levels of 1162:("market-Leninist" economies). Demographic change can be seen as a by-product of social and economic development and, in some cases, accompanied by strong government pressure. An effective, often authoritarian, local administrative system can provide a framework for promotion and services in health, education, and family planning. 77: 1276:

calories per capita due to the limited amount of available agricultural land) which led to high mortality in the Old World. With low mortality but stage 1 birth rates, the United States necessarily experienced exponential population growth (from less than 4 million people in 1790, to 23 million in 1850, to 76 million in 1900).

486:, a threat to many industries that rely on population growth. As the large group born during stage two ages, it creates an economic burden on the shrinking working population. Death rates may remain consistently low or increase slightly due to increases in lifestyle diseases due to low exercise levels and high 3363:

Johan Surkyn and Ron Lesthaeghe, 2004: Value Orientations and the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) in Northern, Western and Southern Europe- An Update. Demographic Research, Special collection, 3: 45-86. Ron Lesthaeghe, 2010: The Unfolding Story of the Second Demographic Transition. Population and

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pattern. These societies have exogamous union formation and weaker marriage institutions. Under these conditions cohabitation seems to grow both among poorer and wealthier population segments alike. Among the former cohabitation reflects the "Pattern of Disadvantage" and among the latter cohabitation

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DTM assumes that the birth rate is independent of the death rate. Nevertheless, demographers maintain that there is no historical evidence for society-wide fertility rates rising significantly after high mortality events. Notably, some historic populations have taken many years to replace lives after

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from a mostly rural US population with high fertility, with an average of seven children born per white woman, to a minority (43%) rural population with low fertility, with an average of two births per white woman. This shift resulted from technological progress. A sixfold increase in real wages made

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Russia entered stage two of the transition in the 18th century, simultaneously with the rest of Europe, though the effect of transition remained limited to a modest decline in death rates and steady population growth. The population of Russia nearly quadrupled during the 19th century, from 30 million

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France's demographic profile is similar to its European neighbors and to developed countries in general, yet it seems to be staving off the population decline of Western countries. With 62.9 million inhabitants in 2006, it was the second most populous country in the European Union, and it displayed a

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Second, significant improvements in public health reduce mortality, particularly in childhood. These are not so much medical breakthroughs (Europe passed through stage two before the advances of the mid-twentieth century, although there was significant medical progress in the nineteenth century, such

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have passed through the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) very quickly due to fast social and economic change. Some countries, particularly African countries, appear to be stalled in the second stage due to stagnant development and the effects of under-invested and under-researched tropical diseases

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As with all models, this is an idealized picture of population change in these countries. The model is a generalization that applies to these countries as a group and may not accurately describe all individual cases. The extent to which it applies to less-developed societies today remains to be seen.

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It should be noted, however, that the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) theory has not proposed a single line or teleological evolution based on phases, as was the case for the theories of the First Demographic Transition (FDT). Instead, and this is strikingly in evidence in Lesthaeghe's empirical

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Because the DTM is only a model, it cannot necessarily predict the future, but it does suggest an underdeveloped country's future birth and death rates, together with the total population size. Most particularly, of course, the DTM makes no comment on change in population due to migration. It is not

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However, this late decline occurred from a very low initial level. During the 17th and 18th centuries, crude death rates in much of colonial North America ranged from 15 to 25 deaths per 1000 residents per year (levels of up to 40 per 1000 being typical during stages one and two). Life expectancy at

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In the 1980s and 1990s, Russia underwent a unique demographic transition; observers call it a "demographic catastrophe": the number of deaths exceeded the number of births, life expectancy fell sharply (especially for males) and the number of suicides increased. From 1992 through 2011, the number of

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Campbell has studied the demography of 19th-century Madagascar in the light of demographic transition theory. Both supporters and critics of the theory hold to an intrinsic opposition between human and "natural" factors, such as climate, famine, and disease, influencing demography. They also suppose

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in the population structure. As a population continues to move through the demographic transition into the third stage, fertility declines and the youth bulge prior to the decline ages out of child dependency into the working ages. This stage of the transition is often referred to as the golden age,

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In rural areas continued decline in childhood death meant that at some point parents realized that they did not need as many children to ensure a comfortable old age. As childhood death continues to fall and incomes increase, parents can become increasingly confident that fewer children will suffice

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barely exceeded their contribution to the household. In addition, as they became adults they became a major input to the family business, mainly farming, and were the primary form of insurance for adults in old age. In India, an adult son was all that prevented a widow from falling into destitution.

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are involved. Human capital gradually increased in the second stage of the industrial revolution, which coincided with the demographic transition. The increasing role of human capital in the production process led to the investment of human capital in children by families, which may be the beginning

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The opposite holds for Asian patriarchal societies which have traditionally strong rules of arranged endogamous marriage and male dominance. In industrialised East Asian societies a major postponement of union formation and parenthood took place, leading to an expansion of numbers of singles and to

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DTM does not well explain the impact of government policies on birth rate. In some developing countries, governments often implement some policies to control the growth of fertility rate. China, for example, underwent a fertility transition in 1970, and the Chinese experience was largely influenced

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McNicoll (2006) examines the common features behind the striking changes in health and fertility in East and Southeast Asia in the 1960s–1990s, focusing on seven countries: Taiwan and South Korea ("tiger" economies), Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia ("second wave" countries), and China and Vietnam

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The decline in death rate and birth rate that occurs during the demographic transition may transform the age structure. When the death rate declines during the second stage of the transition, the result is primarily an increase in the younger population. The reason being that when the death rate is

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changes the traditional values placed upon fertility and the value of children in rural society. Urban living also raises the cost of dependent children to a family. A recent theory suggests that urbanization also contributes to reducing the birth rate because it disrupts optimal mating patterns. A

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and contraception were virtually nonexistent; therefore, birth rates were essentially only limited by the ability of women to bear children. Emigration depressed death rates in some special cases (for example, Europe and particularly the Eastern United States during the 19th century), but, overall,

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For instance, the European pattern of almost simultaneous manifestation of all SDT demographic characteristics is not being replicated elsewhere. The Latin American countries experienced a major growth in pre-marital cohabitation in which the upper social classes were catching up with pre-existing

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A simplification of the DTM theory proposes an initial decline in mortality followed by a later drop in fertility. The changing demographics of the U.S. in the last two centuries did not parallel this model. Beginning around 1800, there was a sharp fertility decline; at this time, an average woman

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a sharp chronological divide between the precolonial and colonial eras, arguing that whereas "natural" demographic influences were of greater importance in the former period, human factors predominated thereafter. Campbell argues that in 19th-century Madagascar the human factor, in the form of the

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China experienced a demographic transition with high death rate and low fertility rate from 1959 to 1961 due to the great famine. However, as a result of the economic improvement, the birth rate increased and mortality rate declined in China before the early 1970s. In the 1970s, China's birth rate

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This occurs where birth and death rates are both low, leading to a total population stability. Death rates are low for a number of reasons, primarily lower rates of diseases and higher production of food. The birth rate is low because people have more opportunities to choose if they want children;

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In Stage 3 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM), death rates are low and birth rates diminish, as a rule accordingly of enhanced economic conditions, an expansion in women's status and education, and access to contraception. The decrease in birth rate fluctuates from nation to nation, as does

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for higher fertility, and that eventually due to individual natural selection or cultural selection, birth rates may rise again. Part of the "cultural selection" hypothesis is that the variance in birth rate between cultures is significant; for example, some religious cultures have a higher birth

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Increasing literacy and employment lowers the uncritical acceptance of childbearing and motherhood as measures of the status of women. Working women have less time to raise children; this is particularly an issue where fathers traditionally make little or no contribution to child-raising, such as

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In the 1980s and early 1990s, the Irish demographic status converged to the European norm. Mortality rose above the European Community average, and in 1991 Irish fertility fell to replacement level. The peculiarities of Ireland's past demography and its recent rapid changes challenge established

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Between 1750 and 1975 England experienced the transition from high to low levels of both mortality and fertility. A major factor was the sharp decline in the death rate due to infectious diseases, which has fallen from about 11 per 1,000 to less than 1 per 1,000. By contrast, the death rate from

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is typically very slow in this stage, because the society is constrained by the available food supply; therefore, unless the society develops new technologies to increase food production (e.g. discovers new sources of food or achieves higher crop yields), any fluctuations in birth rates are soon

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is a means of avoiding inflated bride price. However, Sub-Saharan African populations have not yet completed the FDT fertility transition, and several West-African ones have barely started it. Hence, there is a striking disconnection between evolutions of fertility and of partnership formation.

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by government policy. In particular the "later, longer, fewer" policy of 1970 and one birth policy was enacted in 1979 which all encouraged people to have fewer children in later life. The fertility transition indeed stimulated economic growth and influenced the demographic transition in China.

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Goli and Arokiasamy (2013) indicate that India has a sustainable demographic transition beginning in the mid-1960s and a fertility transition beginning in post-1965. As of 2013, India is in the later half of the third stage of the demographic transition, with a population of 1.23 billion. It is

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during stage one are comparable to those of animals living in the wild. According to Edward, Revocatus. (2016) This is the earlier stage of demographic transition in the world and also characterized by primary activities such as small fishing activities, farming practices, pastoralism and petty

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thought future development orientation for SDT is Social demographers should explore a theory that is not based on stages, a theory that does not set a single line, a development path for some final stage—in the case of SDT, a hypothesis that looks like the advanced Western countries that most

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This phenomenon is explained by the pattern of colonization of the United States. Sparsely populated interior of the country allowed ample room to accommodate all the "excess" people, counteracting mechanisms (spread of communicable diseases due to overcrowding, low real wages and insufficient

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interacted in Korea from 1916 to 1938. Income growth and public investment in health caused mortality to fall, which suppressed fertility and promoted education. Industrialization, skill premium, and closing gender wage gap further induced parents to opt for child quality. Expanding demand for

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In both rural and urban areas, the cost of children to parents is exacerbated by the introduction of compulsory education acts and the increased need to educate children so they can take up a respected position in society. Children are increasingly prohibited under law from working outside the

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of the population. In Stage One, the majority of deaths are concentrated in the first 5–10 years of life. Therefore, more than anything else, the decline in death rates in Stage Two entails the increasing survival of children and a growing population. Hence, the age structure of the population

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From 1820, the cost of such expansionism led the state to increase its exploitation of forced labor at the expense of agricultural production and thus transformed it into a negative demographic force. Infertility and infant mortality, which were probably more significant influences on overall

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has noted that "We've actually got population projections wrong consistently over the last 50 years... we've underestimated the improvements in mortality... but also we've not been very good at spotting the trends in fertility." In 2004 a United Nations office published its guesses for global

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DTM assumes that population changes are induced by industrial changes and increased wealth, without taking into account the role of social change in determining birth rates, e.g., the education of women. In recent decades more work has been done on developing the social mechanisms behind it.

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France displays real divergences from the standard model of Western demographic evolution. The uniqueness of the French case arises from its specific demographic history, its historic cultural values, and its internal regional dynamics. France's demographic transition was unusual in that the

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between 2.0 and 2.5) in 2015 include: Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cabo Verde, El Salvador, Faroe Islands, Grenada, Guam, India, Indonesia, Kosovo, Libya, Malaysia, Maldives, Mexico, Myanmar, Nepal, New Caledonia, Nicaragua, Palau, Peru, Seychelles, Sri Lanka,

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The changes, increased numbers of women choosing to not marry or have children, increased cohabitation outside marriage, increased childbearing by single mothers, increased participation by women in higher education and professional careers, and other changes are associated with increased

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paradigm, with population essentially determined by the food supply. Any fluctuations in food supply (either positive, for example, due to technology improvements, or negative, due to droughts and pest invasions) tend to translate directly into population fluctuations.

676:") as the gap between deaths and births grows wider and wider. Note that this growth is not due to an increase in fertility (or birth rates) but to a decline in deaths. This change in population occurred in north-western Europe during the nineteenth century due to the 363:

explained fertility rates in the third world are not dependent on the spread of industrialization or even on economic development and also illustrates fertility decline is more likely to precede industrialization and to help bring it about than to follow it.

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was completed, the demographic transition becomes an important part in unified growth theory. By 2009, the existence of a negative correlation between fertility and industrial development had become one of the most widely accepted findings in social science.

680:. During the second half of the twentieth century less-developed countries entered Stage Two, creating the worldwide rapid growth of number of living people that has demographers concerned today. In this stage of DT, countries are vulnerable to become 945:

this is made possible by improvements in contraception or women gaining more independence and work opportunities. The DTM (Demographic Transition model) is only a suggestion about the future population levels of a country, not a prediction.

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James Raymo, M. Iwasawa and Larry Bumpass, 2009: Cohabitation and Familily Formation in Japan, Demography 46 (4), 758-803. Jia Yu and Yu Xie, 2015:Cohabitation in China: Trends and Determinants. Population and Development Review, 41 (4),

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children more expensive in terms of forgone opportunities to work and increases in agricultural productivity reduced rural demand for labor, a substantial portion of which traditionally had been performed by children in farm families.

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and is typically when populations see the greatest advancements in living standards and economic development. However, further declines in both mortality and fertility will eventually result in an aging population, and a rise in the

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researched the "various mechanisms that have been proposed as possible triggers for the demographic transition, assessing their empirical validity, and their potential role in the transition from stagnation to growth." In 2011, the

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However, unless factors such as those listed above are allowed to work, a society's birth rates may not drop to a low level in due time, which means that the society cannot proceed to stage three and is locked in what is called a

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The only area where this pattern did not hold was the American South. High prevalence of deadly endemic diseases such as malaria kept mortality as high as 45–50 per 1000 residents per year in 18th century North Carolina. In

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Some have claimed that DTM does not explain the early fertility declines in much of Asia in the second half of the 20th century or the delays in fertility decline in parts of the Middle East. Nevertheless, the demographer

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other causes was 12 per 1,000 in 1850 and has not declined markedly. Scientific discoveries and medical breakthroughs did not, in general, contribute importantly to the early major decline in infectious disease mortality.

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Improvements in contraceptive technology are now a major factor. Fertility decline is caused as much by changes in values about children and gender as by the availability of contraceptives and knowledge of how to use

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in Washington, described the Second Demographic Transition as one in which "long, stable marriages are out, and divorce or separation are in, along with serial cohabitation and increasingly contingent liaisons."

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becomes increasingly youthful and start to have big families and more of these children enter the reproductive cycle of their lives while maintaining the high fertility rates of their parents. The bottom of the "

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studies, major attention is being paid to historical path dependency, heterogeneity in the SDT patterns of development, forms of family and lineage organisation, economic and especially ideational developments.

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theory. The recent changes have mirrored inward changes in Irish society, with respect to family planning, women in the work force, the sharply declining power of the Catholic Church, and the emigration factor.

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usually produced seven births per lifetime, but by 1900 this number had dropped to nearly four. A mortality decline was not observed in the U.S. until almost 1900—a hundred years after the drop in fertility.

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First, improvements in the food supply brought about by higher yields in agricultural practices and better transportation reduce death due to starvation and lack of water. Agricultural improvements included

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In pre-industrial society, death rates and birth rates were both high, and fluctuated rapidly according to natural events, such as drought and disease, to produce a relatively constant and young population.

4060:————————; Nye, Robert A; van Poppel, Frans (2003). "Fertility and Contraception During the Demographic Transition: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches". 3868:

Borgerhoff, Luttbeg B; Borgerhoff Mulder, M; Mangel, MS (2000). "To marry or not to marry? A dynamic model of marriage behavior and demographic transition". In Cronk, L; Chagnon, NA; Irons, W (eds.).

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Albert Esteve and Ron Lesthaeghe (eds), 2016. Cohabitation and Marriage in the Americas - Geo-historical Legacies and New Trends. Springer Open, Springer International Publishing AG Switzerland, 291p.

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of the eighteenth century and were initially quite slow. In the twentieth century, the falls in death rates in developing countries tended to be substantially faster. Countries in this stage include

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lower population, or whether lower populations lead to industrialization and higher incomes. Scholars also debate to what extent various proposed and sometimes inter-related factors such as higher

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Ron Lesthaeghe, 2020a: The Second Demographic Transition: Cohabitation, Kim Halford and Fons van de Vijver (eds): Cross-Cultural Family Research and Practice. Academic Press/ Elsevier, 103-144.

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compared to Western Europe, the United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand is mainly due to government programs and a massive investment in education both by governments and parents.

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A major factor in reducing birth rates in stage 3 countries such as Malaysia is the availability of family planning facilities, like this one in Kuala Terengganu, Terengganu, Malaysia.

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birth was on the order of 40 and, in some places, reached 50, and a resident of 18th century Philadelphia who reached age 20 could have expected, on average, additional 40 years of life.

787:. The population structure becomes less triangular and more like an elongated balloon. During the period between the decline in youth dependency and rise in old age dependency there is a 993:

The original Demographic Transition model has just four stages, but additional stages have been proposed. Both more-fertile and less-fertile futures have been claimed as a Stage Five.

711:" widens first where children, teenagers and infants are here, accelerating population growth rate. The age structure of such a population is illustrated by using an example from the 4529: 2615:

Baudelle, Guy; Olivier, David (2006), "Changement Global, Mondialisation et Modèle De Transition Démographique: réflexion sur une exception française parmi les pays développés",

1288:) that the city was characterized as the "death capital of the United States" – at the level of 50 per 1000 population or higher – well into the second half of the 19th century. 1030:

would be expected to favor individuals who are willing and able to convert plentiful resources into plentiful fertile descendants. This may be the result of a departure from the

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2008 study in Iceland found that the most fecund marriages are between distant cousins. Genetic incompatibilities inherent in more distant out breeding makes reproduction harder.

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Today, the U.S. is recognized as having both low fertility and mortality rates. Specifically, birth rates stand at 14 per 1000 per year and death rates at 8 per 1000 per year.

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increased economic opportunities and risks for individuals, while also increasing the price and often reducing the quality of these services, all affecting demographic trends.

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Some scholars break out, from stage four, a "stage five" of below-replacement fertility levels. Others hypothesize a different "stage five" involving an increase in fertility.

278:, the theory and model are frequently imprecise when applied to individual countries due to specific social, political and economic factors affecting particular populations. 3339:

The Global Flight From the Family: It's not only in the West or prosperous nations—the decline in marriage and drop in birth rates is rampant, with potentially dire fallout

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are believed to have had this balance until the late 18th century, when this balance ended in Western Europe. In fact, growth rates were less than 0.05% at least since the

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and the increased role of women in society and the workforce the resulting changes have profoundly affected the demographics of industrialized countries resulting in a

3053: 3352:'They're getting divorced, and they'll do anything NOT to get custody of the kids." So reads the promotional poster, in French, for a new movie, "Papa ou Maman" 2449: 470:

During stage four there are both low birth rates and low death rates. Birth rates may drop to well below replacement level as has happened in countries like

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higher levels among the less educated and some ethnic groups. But so far, the other major SDT indicator, namely fertility postponement is largely absent.

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Most models posit that the birth rate will stabilize at a low level indefinitely. Some dissenting scholars note that the modern environment is exerting

3145:"The "second demographic transition": a conceptual map for the understanding of late modern demographic developments in fertility and family formation" 3475:

The Demographic Transition: Stages, Patterns, and Economic Implications: A Longitudinal Study of Sixty-Seven Countries Covering the Period 1720–1984.

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Ron Lesthaeghe, 2020b: The Second Demographic Transition 1986-2020, Sub-Replacement Fertility and Rising Cohabitation - A Global Update. Genus 76(1)

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However, the existence of some kind of demographic transition is widely accepted in the social sciences because of the well-established historical

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were among the first populations to experience a demographic transition, in the 18th century, prior to changes in mortality or fertility in other

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individualism and autonomy, particularly of women. Motivations have changed from traditional and economic ones to those of self-realization.

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Friedlander, Dov; S Okun, Barbara; Segal, Sharon (1999). "The Demographic Transition Then and Now: Processes, Perspectives, and Analyses".

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This stage leads to a fall in death rates and an increase in population. The changes leading to this stage in Europe were initiated in the

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and other cheap effective contraceptive methods such as the IUD were adopted by the general population, to the present. Combined with the

1019:. The global data no longer support the suggestion that fertility rates tend to broadly rise at very high levels of national development. 724:

the time span in which it is experienced. Stage Three moves the population towards stability through a decline in the birth rate. Several

3943: 2076: 1927: 1413:

The conclusion is that the unfolding of the SDT is characterised by just as much pattern heterogeneity as was the by now historical FDT.

1050:

argues that demographic trends point to religious fundamentalists greatly increasing as a share of the population over the next century.

791:

of opportunity that can potentially produce economic growth through an increase in the ratio of working age to dependent population; the

4559: 3926: 3451:————————; Bruce K Caldwell; Pat Caldwell; Peter F McDonald; Thomas Schindlmayr (2006). 440:

and spread to the south and east over approximately the next 100 years. Without a corresponding fall in birth rates this produces an

200: 4451: 3179: 1564: 237: 219: 113: 63: 2423: 1153:

yet is also accompanied by movement of selective residential flow, social selection, and sociospatial segregation based on income.

172: 3456: 3085: 543:

While death rates remained high there was no question as to the need for children, even if the means to prevent them had existed.

4205: 1458: 1360: 330:

of France made similar observations on demographic patterns and population growth potential around 1934. In the 1940s and 1950s

4600: 4534: 3337: 2689:"Demographic Transition in India: An Evolutionary Interpretation of Population and Health Trends Using 'Change-Point Analysis'" 2035: 577: 2161: 1095:, and as result does not have enough people in the working ages to support the economy, and the growing dependent population. 179: 4661: 4549: 2376:"What if fertility decline is not permanent? The need for an evolutionarily informed approach to understanding low fertility" 668:

following from growing scientific knowledge of the causes of disease and the improved education and social status of mothers.

157: 87: 1011:

Using data through 2005, researchers have suggested that the negative relationship between development, as measured by the

4671: 1379: 725: 452: 4030:

Szreter, Simon (1993). "The Idea of Demographic Transition and the Study of Fertility: A Critical Intellectual History".

1587:

Myrskylä, Mikko; Kohler, Hans-Peter; Billari, Francesco C. (2009). "Advances in development reverse fertility declines".

3059: 2225: 186: 4629: 4124:

After the next World War, we will see Germany lose more women and children and soon start again from a developing stage

4574: 4564: 4477: 4383: 3419: 1493: 1336: 1008:

may eventually occur, assuming that the fertility rate does not change and sustained mass immigration does not occur.

933: 360: 348: 149: 55: 3483:. 1973. "The demographic transition," IUSSP Liege International Population Conference. Liege: IUSSP. Volume 1: 53–72. 1091:. An increase of the aged dependency ratio often indicates that a population has reached below replacement levels of 672:

A consequence of the decline in mortality in Stage Two is an increasingly rapid growth in population growth (a.k.a. "

4446: 2457: 2061: 1448: 1218: 910: 282: 168: 2510: 323: 142: 4676: 4356: 4180: 1368: 1355:

The Second Demographic Transition (SDT) is a conceptual framework first formulated in 1986 by Ron Lesthaeghe and

1183:, etc. The present demographic transition stage of India along with its higher population base will yield a rich 997: 906: 729: 2856:

Campbell, Gwyn (1991), "State and Pre-colonial Demographic History: the Case of Nineteenth-century Madagascar",

4666: 4361: 4150: 1473: 1145:

mortality and the natality decreased at the same time, thus there was no demographic boom in the 19th century.

918: 2481:"Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth? Demography and Politics in the Twenty-First Century, by ERIC KAUFMANN" 2185:"A decade of TFR declines suggests no relationship between development and sub-replacement fertility rebounds" 3231: 1195:

Cha (2007) analyzes a panel data set to explore how industrial revolution, demographic transition, and human

4303: 1163: 1031: 1012: 974: 547: 539: 464: 4022:

Soares, Rodrigo R., and Bruno L. S. Falcão. "The Demographic Transition and the Sexual Division of Labor,"

2754: 4472: 4430: 4425: 4308: 3690: 1241: 1057: 494:. By the late 20th century, birth rates and death rates in developed countries leveled off at lower rates. 385: 4539: 4403: 4242: 3250: 2948: 2660: 1433: 1038: 929: 925: 914: 806:

Countries that have witnessed a fertility decline of over 50% from their pre-transition levels include:

677: 340: 294: 1961: 1103: 4569: 4524: 4492: 4487: 4413: 4388: 4344: 3290: 2775: 2700: 2269: 1748: 1596: 1428: 1196: 1184: 1088: 1079: 1023: 949: 792: 673: 401: 271: 2480: 1073:

One such visualization of this effect may be approximated by these hypothetical population pyramids.

193: 4640: 4418: 4249: 4200: 4143: 3695: 1498: 681: 556: 491: 437: 266:

to low birth rates and low death rates, as societies attain more technology, education (especially

3487:————————; Anderson, Barbara A; Härm, Erna (1979). 3035: 687: 4544: 4482: 4270: 4259: 4237: 4232: 4221: 4115: 4085: 4047: 4002: 3966: 3914: 3848: 3741: 3708: 3612: 3538: 3530: 3439: 3122: 2838: 2300: 2111: 1887: 1796: 1620: 1483: 1468: 1443: 1340: 1083: 1005: 788: 708: 703: 691: 645: 593: 483: 413: 331: 3629: 3080:

Caldwell, John C.; Bruce K Caldwell; Pat Caldwell; Peter F McDonald; Thomas Schindlmayr (2006).

1752: 1739: 1697: 3664:———————— (2008). "The Demographic Transition". 2899: 2799:

Industrial Revolution, Demographic Transition, and Human Capital Accumulation in Korea, 1916–38

4519: 4393: 4286: 4195: 4077: 4010: 3994: 3951: 3932: 3873: 3856: 3817: 3778: 3749: 3604: 3596: 3569: 3460: 3318: 3175: 3089: 2936: 2873: 2736: 2718: 2624: 2545: 2405: 2356: 2292: 2206: 2082: 1933: 1846: 1821: 1756: 1672: 1612: 1560: 1528: 1478: 1453: 1364: 1260: 1150: 1027: 986: 405: 290: 275: 2940: 1815: 4595: 4590: 4376: 4371: 4254: 4210: 4107: 4069: 4039: 3986: 3906: 3840: 3799: 3770: 3733: 3700: 3652: 3644: 3588: 3554: 3522: 3431: 3308: 3298: 3014: 2865: 2830: 2726: 2708: 2646: 2492: 2395: 2387: 2346: 2338: 2284: 2248: 2240: 2196: 1879: 1788: 1779:

Landry, Adolphe (December 1987). "Adolphe Landry on the Demographic transition Revolution".

1720: 1712: 1662: 1654: 1604: 1438: 1384: 1001: 962: 800: 784: 780: 779:

The resulting changes in the age structure of the population include a decline in the youth

441: 372: 267: 4605: 4366: 3497: 3480: 3263: 3167: 2961: 2673: 2001: 1356: 1053: 966: 899: 764: 534: 425: 1251:

deaths exceeded the number of births; from 2011 onwards, the opposite has been the case.

3774: 3294: 2704: 2184: 1600: 1319:; for example, progress in the DTM clearly arrested and reversed between 1975 and 2005. 4610: 3886: 3550: 3510: 3313: 3278: 3144: 2935:

Greenwood, Jeremy; Seshadri, Ananth (January 2002). "The U.S. Demographic Transition".

2731: 2688: 2400: 2375: 2351: 2326: 1667: 1642: 1463: 1225: 970: 753: 661: 417: 389: 327: 302: 263: 4130: 3897:

McNicoll, Geoffrey (2006). "Policy Lessons of the East Asian Demographic Transition".

2580:

Coleman, DA (1992), "The Demographic Transition in Ireland in International Context",

2143: 979: 17: 4655: 4349: 4298: 4119: 3931:. Rochester, NY: University of Rochester Press/Rochester Studies in Medical History, 3910: 3737: 3542: 3197: 2244: 2127: 1503: 1047: 1016: 702:

Another characteristic of Stage Two of the demographic transition is a change in the

641: 456: 352: 306: 4089: 3805:

Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth

3616: 4398: 2304: 1624: 1423: 1285: 1176: 895: 887: 863: 741: 597: 460: 3891:

La révolution démographique – Études et essais sur les problèmes de la population

2713: 2687:

Goli, Srinivas; Arokiasamy, Perianayagam (2013-10-18). Schooling, C. Mary (ed.).

1988: 1107:

Demographic change in Germany, Sweden, Chile, Mauritius, China from 1820 to 2010.

4281: 3990: 3844: 3675:

The European Experience of Declining Fertility, 1850–1970: The Quiet Revolution.

3648: 1843:

Demographic Avant-Garde: Jews in Bohemia between the Enlightenment and the Shoah

1716: 1529:"Models of Demographic Transition [ Biz/ed Virtual Developing Country ]" 1405: 1328: 1281: 839: 811: 712: 657: 585: 356: 131: 4073: 3704: 3592: 3526: 3283:

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

2797: 568: 4166: 3625: 2869: 1693: 1658: 1114: 1110: 924:

Countries that have experienced a fertility decline of less than 25% include:

867: 859: 807: 649: 445: 421: 397: 393: 335: 319: 298: 259: 251: 4081: 3998: 3681:

Greenwood, Jeremy; Seshadri, Ananth (2002). "The US Demographic Transition".

3600: 2877: 2722: 2628: 2210: 2201: 4336: 3303: 2496: 1092: 851: 843: 286: 4014: 3977:

Saito, Oasamu (1996). "Historical Demography: Achievements and Prospects".

3860: 3782: 3753: 3630:"The Demographic Transition and the Emergence of Sustained Economic Growth" 3608: 3413: 3322: 2740: 2409: 2391: 2360: 2342: 2296: 2288: 1698:"The Demographic Transition and the Emergence of Sustained Economic Growth" 1676: 1616: 4292: 3279:"The second demographic transition: A concise overview of its development" 2327:"Correlations in fertility across generations: can low fertility persist?" 2104:"Third Cousins Have Greatest Number Of Offspring, Data From Iceland Shows" 1069: 771:. Valuation of women beyond childbearing and motherhood becomes important. 258:

is a phenomenon and theory which refers to the historical shift from high

4408: 4331: 3225:"The Idea of a Second Demographic Transition in Industrialized Countries" 3199:

The Second Demographic Transition in Western countries: An interpretation

2253: 1488: 1339:

has suggested that the reason for the rapid decline in fertility in some

1175:

nearly 40 years behind in the demographic transition process compared to

847: 827: 609: 605: 601: 511: 3918: 3126: 3110: 1608: 4051: 4006: 3852: 3745: 3712: 3656: 3534: 3443: 2842: 2818: 2651: 2642: 1891: 1867: 1800: 1724: 1316: 905:

Countries that have experienced a fertility decline of 25–50% include:

883: 879: 875: 871: 831: 819: 665: 617: 613: 487: 471: 429: 334:

developed a more formal theory of demographic transition. In the 2000s

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Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

1259:

Greenwood and Seshadri (2002) show that from 1800 to 1940 there was a

4313: 3813: 3809: 1308: 1042:

rate that is not accounted for by differences in income. In his book

855: 835: 823: 815: 695: 552: 507: 433: 376:

Demographic transition overview, where "stage 5" is shown as unknown.

4043: 3803: 3721: 3435: 2834: 2062:"Stage 3 of the Demographic Transition Model - Population Education" 1883: 1792: 4111: 3019: 3006: 1479:

Self-limiting growth in biological population at carrying capacity

1312: 1180: 1102: 1068: 978: 891: 768: 752: 728:

contribute to this eventual decline, and are generally similar to

686: 629: 625: 621: 581: 567: 503: 479: 475: 371: 3969:

1945. "Population — The Long View," in Theodore W. Schultz, Ed.,

3566:

From Grey to Silver: Managing the Demographic Change Successfully

3422:(1976). "Toward a restatement of demographic transition theory". 444:, and the countries in this stage experience a large increase in 3007:"The Urban Mortality Transition in the United States, 1800–1940" 2922:

Population under Duress: The Geodemography of Post-Soviet Russia

2516:. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. 2004 1304: 589: 516: 4139: 3928:

Infections, Chronic Disease, and the Epidemiological Transition

635:

The decline in the death rate is due initially to two factors:

3722:"Policy Implications of the Next World Demographic Transition" 3515:

Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science

2805:(working Paper), KR: Naksungdae Institute of Economic Research 125: 70: 29: 4135: 3870:

Human behavior and adaptation: An anthropological perspective

2283:(3). Department of Psychology, McMaster University: 509–519. 436:, the death rate decline started in the late 18th century in 3205:, IPD Working Paper, Interuniversity Programme in Demography 289:

to social and economic development. Scholars debate whether

1300:

necessarily applicable at very high levels of development.

1026:, wealthier people having fewer children is unexpected, as 555:

resulting in significant mortality are frequent. Overall,

546:

During this stage, the society evolves in accordance with

3673:

Gillis, John R., Louise A. Tilly, and David Levine, eds.

3564:

Kunisch, Sven; Boehm, Stephan A.; Boppel, Michael (eds):

2643:"Policy lessons of the East Asian demographic transition" 3547:. Classic article that introduced concept of transition. 1378:

In 2015, Nicholas Eberstadt, political economist at the

737:

to help in family business and care for them at old age.

2331:

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

2226:"Testing evolutionary hypotheses with demographic data" 1989:

Can we be sure the world's population will stop rising?

1550: 1548: 380:

The transition involves four stages, or possibly five.

4530:

International Conference on Population and Development

3489:

Human Fertility in Russia since the Nineteenth Century

3174:. Deventer : Van Loghum Slaterus. pp. 9–24. 2325:

Kolk, M.; Cownden, D.; Enquist, M. (29 January 2014).

1868:"Toward A Retatement of Demographic Transition Theory" 322:

history developed in 1930 by the American demographer

1643:"The demographic transition: causes and consequences" 3761:

Hirschman, Charles (1994). "Why fertility changes".

2270:"Human evolutionary psychology and animal behaviour" 1921: 1403:

Sub-Saharan African populations exhibit yet another

420:

drop quickly due to improvements in food supply and

4583: 4508: 4460: 4439: 4322: 4268: 4219: 4173: 3831:Kirk, Dudley (1996). "The Demographic Transition". 1919: 1917: 1915: 1913: 1911: 1909: 1907: 1905: 1903: 1901: 983:

United Nation's population projections by location.

160:. Unsourced material may be challenged and removed. 3138: 3136: 2542:Population: An Introduction to Concepts and Issues 1845:. Central European University Press. p. xvi. 1738: 1303:DTM does not account for recent phenomena such as 2819:"An alternative to the One-Child Policy in China" 2144:"Fertility rate, total (births per woman) - Data" 3720:Harbison, Sarah F.; Robinson, Warren C. (2002). 2596:Vallin, Jacques; Caselli, Graziella (May 1999). 2374:Burger, Oskar; DeLong, John P. (28 March 2016). 451:In stage three, birth rates fall due to various 4026:Vol. 116, No. 6 (Dec., 2008), pp. 1058–104 3052:"Nigeria: Reversal of Demographic Transition", 730:those associated with sub-replacement fertility 90:for grammar, style, cohesion, tone, or spelling 3893:, Paris, INED-Presses Universitaires de France 2268:Daly, Martin; Wilson, Margo I (26 June 1998). 4151: 3872:. New York: Aldine Transaction. p. 528. 3802:; Malkov, Artemy; Khaltourina, Daria (2006). 3557:and response in modern demographic history." 2047: 2045: 1817:The Demography of Victorian England and Wales 8: 3637:Journal of the European Economic Association 3513:(1945). "The World Demographic Transition". 3504:. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. 3491:. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. 3111:"Climate and the Emergence of Global Income" 3109:Carl-johan, dalgaard; pablo, selaya (2015). 2017: 2015: 1705:Journal of the European Economic Association 1284:, mortality remained so high (mainly due to 660:) as they are improvements in water supply, 318:The theory is based on an interpretation of 4555:United Nations world population conferences 3568:, Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg 2011, 3170:(1986). "Twee demografische transities? ". 2817:John, Bongaarts; Susan, Greenhalgh (1985). 1984: 1982: 1980: 1978: 1688: 1686: 684:in the absence of progressive governments. 396:are high and roughly in balance. All human 305:, old-age security, and rise of demand for 64:Learn how and when to remove these messages 4468:Population and housing censuses by country 4158: 4144: 4136: 2565:Harris, Bernard. "Health by Association". 1820:. Cambridge University Press. p. 18. 1454:Mathematical model of self-limiting growth 632:, which have begun to move into stage 3). 4098:Thompson, Warren S (1929). "Population". 3694: 3312: 3302: 3018: 2977:A Population History of the United States 2730: 2712: 2650: 2598:"Quand l'Angleterre rattrapait la France" 2399: 2350: 2252: 2200: 1666: 1559:. Princeton: Princeton University Press. 953:Suriname, Tunisia, Turkey and Venezuela. 238:Learn how and when to remove this message 220:Learn how and when to remove this message 114:Learn how and when to remove this message 4191:Estimates of historical world population 3336:Nicholas Eberstadt (February 21, 2015), 2450:"Shall the religious inherit the earth?" 2424:"Population paradox: Europe's time bomb" 2224:Clarke, Alice L.; Low, Bobbi S. (2001). 1582: 1580: 1578: 1576: 148:Relevant discussion may be found on the 3973:. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. 2990:Michael R. Haines; Richard H. Steckel. 2755:"The arithmetic's of Indian population" 1515: 1032:environment of evolutionary adaptedness 3259: 3248: 3223:Dirk J. van de Kaa (29 January 2002). 2957: 2946: 2669: 2658: 1044:Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth? 664:, food handling, and general personal 4094:, full text in Project Muse and Ebsco 3792:The Continuing Demographic Transition 3011:NBER Historical Working Paper No. 134 2992:A Population History of North America 2567:International Journal of Epidemiology 2535: 2533: 2531: 2178: 2176: 7: 4624: 4062:Journal of Interdisciplinary History 3666:New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics 3277:Ron Lesthaeghe (December 23, 2014). 3186:(in Dutch with summaries in English) 2544:. 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(1987). 3424:Population and Development Review 2823:Population and Development Review 2233:Population and Development Review 2110:, 8 February 2008, archived from 1872:Population and Development Review 1781:Population and Development Review 732:, although some are speculative: 490:rates and an aging population in 45:This article has multiple issues. 4636: 4635: 4623: 4500:Population concern organizations 4206:Projections of population growth 3911:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2006.00103.x 3738:10.1111/j.1728-4465.2002.00037.x 3005:Haines, Michael R. (July 2001). 2776:"India vs China vs USA vs World" 2479:McClendon, David (Autumn 2013). 2245:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2001.00633.x 1641:Galor, Oded (17 February 2011). 1459:Neolithic demographic transition 130: 75: 34: 4601:Human impact on the environment 4535:Population Action International 3058:, November 2006, archived from 2456:. April 6, 2010. Archived from 2081:, Marathon, UWC, archived from 1117:(CBR), yellow line: population. 355:or in Christians living in the 310:of the demographic transition. 141:needs additional citations for 53:or discuss these issues on the 4550:United Nations Population Fund 3477:Oxford U. Press, 1993. 633 pp. 3455:. Dordrecht, the Netherlands: 3115:The Review of Economic Studies 3084:. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: 2892:"Population of Eastern Europe" 2002:"Demographic Transition Model" 1: 4100:American Journal of Sociology 4024:Journal of Political Economy, 3453:Demographic Transition Theory 3082:Demographic Transition Theory 2920:Demko, George J, ed. (1999), 1380:American Enterprise Institute 1351:Second demographic transition 3944:"The Demographic Transition" 3040:, USA: CIA, 17 November 2021 2796:Myung, Soo Cha (July 2007), 2714:10.1371/journal.pone.0076404 1814:Woods, Robert (2000-10-05). 4575:World Population Foundation 4565:World Population Conference 4478:World population milestones 3991:10.1080/0032472031000149606 3845:10.1080/0032472031000149536 3649:10.1162/jeea.2005.3.2-3.494 2641:McNicoll, Geoffrey (2006). 2051:Caldwell (2006), Chapter 10 1991:, BBC News, 13 October 2012 1717:10.1162/jeea.2005.3.2-3.494 1494:World population milestones 1388:embrace postmodern values. 1113:(CDR), green line: (crude) 596:(but this does not include 361:John Caldwell (demographer) 349:Jews of Bohemia and Moravia 4693: 4447:Population and Environment 4131:World Bank, Fertility Rate 4074:10.1162/002219503322649453 3925:Mercer, Alexander (2014), 3763:Annual Review of Sociology 3726:Studies in Family Planning 3705:10.1257/000282802320189168 3668:(2nd ed.). 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(1997). 3473:Chesnais, Jean-Claude. 3304:10.1073/pnas.1420441111 2540:Weeks, John R. (2014). 1960:, About, archived from 1499:r/K life history theory 1164:Economic liberalization 1013:Human Development Index 975:Evolutionary psychology 578:Agricultural Revolution 502:Many countries such as 465:subsistence agriculture 409:matched by death rates. 404:over 10,000 years ago. 402:Agricultural Revolution 4431:Zero population growth 4426:Sustainable population 4350:Malthusian catastrophe 4309:Overshoot (population) 4186:Demographic transition 3258:Cite journal requires 2956:Cite journal requires 2668:Cite journal requires 2392:10.1098/rstb.2015.0157 2343:10.1098/rspb.2013.2561 2289:10.1006/anbe.1998.1027 2006:geographyfieldwork.com 1841:Vobecka, Jana (2013). 1242:Demographics of Russia 1118: 1074: 1058:Southampton University 990: 758: 699: 656:as the development of 573: 459:, increases in wages, 386:pre-industrial society 377: 256:demographic transition 18:Demographic Transition 4662:Demographic economics 4540:Population Connection 4404:Mere addition paradox 4243:Physiological density 3816:: URSS. p. 128. 3621:, full text in Ebsco. 3342:, Wall Street Journal 2497:10.1093/socrel/srt026 2485:Sociology of Religion 1932:, UWC, archived from 1557:Unified Growth Theory 1434:Demographic economics 1106: 1089:aged dependency ratio 1072: 1039:evolutionary pressure 982: 756: 690: 678:Industrial Revolution 571: 519:to a limited extent. 375: 341:unified growth theory 4672:Population geography 4570:World Population Day 4525:Church of Euthanasia 4414:Non-identity problem 4389:Political demography 4345:Human overpopulation 3561:29(October): 345–66. 2189:Demographic Research 2038:on October 23, 2007. 1555:Galor, Oded (2011). 1429:Demographic dividend 1341:developing countries 1197:capital accumulation 1185:demographic dividend 1024:evolutionary biology 996:Some countries have 950:total fertility rate 793:demographic dividend 674:population explosion 515:such as malaria and 484:shrinking population 272:economic development 154:improve this article 4419:Reproductive rights 4250:Population dynamics 4201:Population momentum 3967:Notestein, Frank W. 3942:Montgomery, Keith. 3295:2014PNAS..11118112L 3289:(51): 18112–18115. 2994:. pp. 163–164. 2705:2013PLoSO...876404G 1749:Macmillan Reference 1609:10.1038/nature08230 1601:2009Natur.460..741M 1327:events such as the 1295:Critical evaluation 1187:in future decades. 557:population dynamics 492:developed countries 438:northwestern Europe 293:and higher incomes 4545:Population Matters 4260:Population pyramid 4238:Population density 4233:Population decline 3979:Population Studies 3971:Food for the World 3833:Population Studies 3237:on 29 October 2020 2975:Herbert S. Klein. 2652:10.31899/pgy2.1041 2604:(in French) (346). 2386:(1692): 20150157. 2337:(1779): 20132561. 2148:data.worldbank.org 2064:. 16 October 2014. 1484:Transition economy 1469:Population pyramid 1444:Demographic window 1361:birth control pill 1119: 1099:Historical studies 1075: 1006:population decline 991: 789:demographic window 759: 700: 692:Population pyramid 646:selective breeding 594:Sub-Saharan Africa 574: 455:such as access to 414:developing country 378: 332:Frank W. Notestein 94:You can assist by 4649: 4648: 4520:7 Billion Actions 4394:Population ethics 4287:Carrying capacity 4196:Population growth 3937:978-1-58046-508-3 3879:978-0-202-02044-0 3823:978-5-484-00414-0 3800:Korotayev, Andrey 3574:978-3-642-15593-2 3466:978-1-4020-4373-4 3420:Caldwell, John C. 3414:Carrying capacity 3095:978-1-4020-4373-4 3055:Population action 2551:978-1-305-09450-5 2114:on 2 January 2021 1852:978-615-5225-33-8 1827:978-0-521-78254-8 1762:978-0-02-865677-9 1751:. 2003. pp. 1740:"Warren Thompson" 1365:sexual revolution 1261:demographic shift 1151:peri-urbanization 1109:Pink line: crude 1028:natural selection 726:fertility factors 463:, a reduction in 453:fertility factors 424:, which increase 406:Population growth 291:industrialization 285:linking dropping 248: 247: 240: 230: 229: 222: 204: 124: 123: 116: 68: 16:(Redirected from 4684: 4677:Economic systems 4639: 4638: 4627: 4626: 4596:Green Revolution 4377:Two-child policy 4372:One-child policy 4295: 4255:Population model 4211:World population 4160: 4153: 4146: 4137: 4126: 4093: 4055: 4018: 3962: 3960: 3959: 3950:. Archived from 3922: 3883: 3864: 3827: 3795: 3786: 3757: 3716: 3698: 3669: 3660: 3643:(2–3): 494–504. 3634: 3620: 3559:Population Index 3555:theory of change 3546: 3505: 3492: 3470: 3447: 3402: 3399: 3393: 3390: 3384: 3380: 3374: 3371: 3365: 3361: 3355: 3354: 3349: 3347: 3333: 3327: 3326: 3316: 3306: 3274: 3268: 3267: 3261: 3256: 3254: 3246: 3244: 3242: 3236: 3230:. Archived from 3229: 3220: 3214: 3213: 3212: 3210: 3204: 3193: 3187: 3185: 3166:Ron Lesthaeghe; 3163: 3157: 3156: 3140: 3131: 3130: 3121:(4): 1334–1363. 3106: 3100: 3099: 3077: 3071: 3069: 3068: 3067: 3049: 3043: 3041: 3031: 3025: 3024: 3022: 3002: 2996: 2995: 2987: 2981: 2980: 2972: 2966: 2965: 2959: 2954: 2952: 2944: 2932: 2926: 2925: 2917: 2911: 2910: 2908: 2907: 2898:. Archived from 2888: 2882: 2880: 2853: 2847: 2846: 2814: 2808: 2806: 2804: 2793: 2787: 2786: 2784: 2782: 2772: 2766: 2765: 2763: 2761: 2751: 2745: 2744: 2734: 2716: 2684: 2678: 2677: 2671: 2666: 2664: 2656: 2654: 2638: 2632: 2631: 2623:(395): 177–204, 2612: 2606: 2605: 2593: 2587: 2585: 2577: 2571: 2570: 2562: 2556: 2555: 2537: 2526: 2525: 2523: 2521: 2515: 2507: 2501: 2500: 2476: 2470: 2469: 2467: 2465: 2460:on June 23, 2019 2446: 2440: 2439: 2437: 2435: 2420: 2414: 2413: 2403: 2371: 2365: 2364: 2354: 2322: 2316: 2315: 2313: 2311: 2277:Animal Behaviour 2274: 2265: 2259: 2258: 2256: 2230: 2221: 2215: 2214: 2204: 2180: 2171: 2169: 2158: 2152: 2151: 2140: 2134: 2132: 2123: 2117: 2115: 2100: 2094: 2092: 2091: 2090: 2072: 2066: 2065: 2058: 2052: 2049: 2040: 2039: 2034:. Archived from 2028: 2022: 2019: 2010: 2009: 1998: 1992: 1986: 1973: 1971: 1970: 1969: 1951: 1945: 1943: 1942: 1941: 1923: 1896: 1895: 1863: 1857: 1856: 1838: 1832: 1831: 1811: 1805: 1804: 1776: 1767: 1766: 1742: 1735: 1729: 1728: 1711:(2–3): 494–504. 1702: 1690: 1681: 1680: 1670: 1638: 1629: 1628: 1584: 1571: 1570: 1552: 1543: 1542: 1540: 1539: 1525: 1439:Demographic trap 1385:S. Philip Morgan 1002:Population aging 963:Population aging 801:demographic trap 785:population aging 781:dependency ratio 243: 236: 225: 218: 214: 211: 205: 203: 162: 134: 126: 119: 112: 108: 105: 99: 79: 78: 71: 60: 38: 37: 30: 21: 4692: 4691: 4687: 4686: 4685: 4683: 4682: 4681: 4667:Human geography 4652: 4651: 4650: 4645: 4615: 4579: 4513: 4511: 4504: 4456: 4435: 4384:Overconsumption 4367:Family planning 4324: 4318: 4291: 4275: 4272: 4264: 4226: 4223: 4215: 4169: 4164: 4097: 4059: 4044:10.2307/2938410 4029: 3976: 3957: 3955: 3941: 3896: 3887:Landry, Adolphe 3880: 3867: 3830: 3824: 3798: 3789: 3760: 3719: 3680: 3663: 3632: 3624: 3578: 3551:Davis, Kingsley 3511:Davis, Kingsley 3509: 3498:Coale, Ansley J 3496: 3486: 3481:Coale, Ansley J 3467: 3459:. p. 418. 3450: 3436:10.2307/1971615 3430:(3/4): 321–66. 3418: 3410: 3405: 3400: 3396: 3391: 3387: 3381: 3377: 3372: 3368: 3362: 3358: 3345: 3343: 3335: 3334: 3330: 3276: 3275: 3271: 3257: 3247: 3240: 3238: 3234: 3227: 3222: 3221: 3217: 3208: 3206: 3202: 3195: 3194: 3190: 3182: 3168:Dirk van de Kaa 3165: 3164: 3160: 3142: 3141: 3134: 3108: 3107: 3103: 3096: 3088:. p. 239. 3079: 3078: 3074: 3065: 3063: 3051: 3050: 3046: 3033: 3032: 3028: 3004: 3003: 2999: 2989: 2988: 2984: 2974: 2973: 2969: 2955: 2945: 2934: 2933: 2929: 2919: 2918: 2914: 2905: 2903: 2890: 2889: 2885: 2855: 2854: 2850: 2835:10.2307/1973456 2816: 2815: 2811: 2802: 2795: 2794: 2790: 2780: 2778: 2774: 2773: 2769: 2759: 2757: 2753: 2752: 2748: 2686: 2685: 2681: 2667: 2657: 2640: 2639: 2635: 2614: 2613: 2609: 2595: 2594: 2590: 2579: 2578: 2574: 2564: 2563: 2559: 2552: 2539: 2538: 2529: 2519: 2517: 2513: 2509: 2508: 2504: 2478: 2477: 2473: 2463: 2461: 2448: 2447: 2443: 2433: 2431: 2430:. 9 August 2008 2428:The Independent 2422: 2421: 2417: 2373: 2372: 2368: 2324: 2323: 2319: 2309: 2307: 2272: 2267: 2266: 2262: 2228: 2223: 2222: 2218: 2182: 2181: 2174: 2168:, 6 August 2009 2160: 2159: 2155: 2142: 2141: 2137: 2126:"Demographic", 2125: 2124: 2120: 2102: 2101: 2097: 2088: 2086: 2074: 2073: 2069: 2060: 2059: 2055: 2050: 2043: 2030: 2029: 2025: 2020: 2013: 2000: 1999: 1995: 1987: 1976: 1967: 1965: 1953: 1952: 1948: 1939: 1937: 1925: 1924: 1899: 1884:10.2307/1971615 1865: 1864: 1860: 1853: 1840: 1839: 1835: 1828: 1813: 1812: 1808: 1793:10.2307/1973031 1778: 1777: 1770: 1763: 1747:. Vol. 2. 1737: 1736: 1732: 1700: 1692: 1691: 1684: 1640: 1639: 1632: 1595:(7256): 741–3. 1586: 1585: 1574: 1567: 1554: 1553: 1546: 1537: 1535: 1527: 1526: 1517: 1513: 1508: 1419: 1357:Dirk van de Kaa 1353: 1337:John C Caldwell 1297: 1257: 1244: 1238: 1221: 1215: 1206: 1193: 1172: 1159: 1142: 1133: 1124: 1108: 1101: 1080:fertility rates 1067: 1054:Jane Falkingham 984: 977: 967:Aging of Europe 959: 942: 900:Pacific islands 783:and eventually 765:southern Europe 721: 566: 535:Family planning 530: 525: 482:, leading to a 426:life expectancy 370: 324:Warren Thompson 316: 244: 233: 232: 231: 226: 215: 209: 206: 163: 161: 147: 135: 120: 109: 103: 100: 93: 80: 76: 39: 35: 28: 23: 22: 15: 12: 11: 5: 4690: 4688: 4680: 4679: 4674: 4669: 4664: 4654: 4653: 4647: 4646: 4644: 4643: 4633: 4620: 4617: 4616: 4614: 4613: 4611:Sustainability 4608: 4603: 4598: 4593: 4587: 4585: 4584:Related topics 4581: 4580: 4578: 4577: 4572: 4567: 4562: 4557: 4552: 4547: 4542: 4537: 4532: 4527: 4522: 4516: 4514: 4509: 4506: 4505: 4503: 4502: 4497: 4496: 4495: 4490: 4485: 4475: 4473:Largest cities 4470: 4464: 4462: 4458: 4457: 4455: 4454: 4449: 4443: 4441: 4437: 4436: 4434: 4433: 4428: 4423: 4422: 4421: 4416: 4411: 4406: 4401: 4391: 4386: 4381: 4380: 4379: 4374: 4369: 4364: 4354: 4353: 4352: 4342: 4334: 4328: 4326: 4320: 4319: 4317: 4316: 4311: 4306: 4301: 4296: 4293:I = P × A × T 4289: 4284: 4278: 4276: 4269: 4266: 4265: 4263: 4262: 4257: 4252: 4247: 4246: 4245: 4235: 4229: 4227: 4220: 4217: 4216: 4214: 4213: 4208: 4203: 4198: 4193: 4188: 4183: 4177: 4175: 4171: 4170: 4165: 4163: 4162: 4155: 4148: 4140: 4134: 4133: 4128: 4112:10.1086/214874 4095: 4057: 4038:(4): 659–701. 4027: 4020: 3974: 3964: 3939: 3923: 3894: 3884: 3878: 3865: 3828: 3822: 3796: 3787: 3758: 3717: 3696:10.1.1.13.6505 3678: 3671: 3661: 3622: 3587:(4): 493–533. 3576: 3562: 3548: 3507: 3494: 3484: 3478: 3471: 3465: 3448: 3416: 3409: 3406: 3404: 3403: 3394: 3385: 3375: 3366: 3356: 3328: 3269: 3260:|journal= 3215: 3188: 3180: 3158: 3132: 3101: 3094: 3072: 3044: 3037:World factbook 3026: 2997: 2982: 2967: 2958:|journal= 2927: 2912: 2883: 2848: 2829:(4): 585–617. 2809: 2788: 2767: 2746: 2699:(10): e76404. 2679: 2670:|journal= 2633: 2607: 2588: 2572: 2557: 2550: 2527: 2502: 2471: 2441: 2415: 2366: 2317: 2260: 2239:(4): 633–660. 2216: 2172: 2153: 2135: 2118: 2095: 2067: 2053: 2041: 2032:"BBC bitesize" 2023: 2011: 1993: 1974: 1946: 1897: 1878:(3): 321–366. 1858: 1851: 1833: 1826: 1806: 1787:(4): 731–740. 1768: 1761: 1730: 1682: 1630: 1572: 1565: 1544: 1514: 1512: 1509: 1507: 1506: 1501: 1496: 1491: 1486: 1481: 1476: 1471: 1466: 1461: 1456: 1451: 1446: 1441: 1436: 1431: 1426: 1420: 1418: 1415: 1352: 1349: 1296: 1293: 1256: 1253: 1240:Main article: 1237: 1234: 1217:Main article: 1214: 1211: 1205: 1202: 1192: 1189: 1171: 1168: 1158: 1155: 1141: 1138: 1132: 1129: 1123: 1120: 1100: 1097: 1066: 1063: 971:Aging of Japan 958: 955: 941: 938: 777: 776: 772: 751: 750: 746: 738: 720: 717: 670: 669: 653: 565: 562: 529: 526: 524: 521: 499: 498: 495: 468: 449: 410: 384:In stage one, 369: 366: 328:Adolphe Landry 315: 312: 301:income, lower 246: 245: 228: 227: 152:. Please help 138: 136: 129: 122: 121: 83: 81: 74: 69: 43: 42: 40: 33: 26: 24: 14: 13: 10: 9: 6: 4: 3: 2: 4689: 4678: 4675: 4673: 4670: 4668: 4665: 4663: 4660: 4659: 4657: 4642: 4634: 4632: 4631: 4622: 4621: 4618: 4612: 4609: 4607: 4604: 4602: 4599: 4597: 4594: 4592: 4591:Bennett's law 4589: 4588: 4586: 4582: 4576: 4573: 4571: 4568: 4566: 4563: 4561: 4558: 4556: 4553: 4551: 4548: 4546: 4543: 4541: 4538: 4536: 4533: 4531: 4528: 4526: 4523: 4521: 4518: 4517: 4515: 4512:organizations 4507: 4501: 4498: 4494: 4491: 4489: 4486: 4484: 4481: 4480: 4479: 4476: 4474: 4471: 4469: 4466: 4465: 4463: 4459: 4453: 4450: 4448: 4445: 4444: 4442: 4438: 4432: 4429: 4427: 4424: 4420: 4417: 4415: 4412: 4410: 4407: 4405: 4402: 4400: 4397: 4396: 4395: 4392: 4390: 4387: 4385: 4382: 4378: 4375: 4373: 4370: 4368: 4365: 4363: 4360: 4359: 4358: 4355: 4351: 4348: 4347: 4346: 4343: 4341: 4339: 4335: 4333: 4330: 4329: 4327: 4321: 4315: 4312: 4310: 4307: 4305: 4302: 4300: 4299:Kaya identity 4297: 4294: 4290: 4288: 4285: 4283: 4280: 4279: 4277: 4274: 4267: 4261: 4258: 4256: 4253: 4251: 4248: 4244: 4241: 4240: 4239: 4236: 4234: 4231: 4230: 4228: 4225: 4218: 4212: 4209: 4207: 4204: 4202: 4199: 4197: 4194: 4192: 4189: 4187: 4184: 4182: 4179: 4178: 4176: 4172: 4168: 4161: 4156: 4154: 4149: 4147: 4142: 4141: 4138: 4132: 4129: 4125: 4121: 4117: 4113: 4109: 4106:(6): 959–75. 4105: 4101: 4096: 4091: 4087: 4083: 4079: 4075: 4071: 4068:(2): 141–54. 4067: 4063: 4058: 4053: 4049: 4045: 4041: 4037: 4033: 4028: 4025: 4021: 4016: 4012: 4008: 4004: 4000: 3996: 3992: 3988: 3985:(3): 537–53. 3984: 3980: 3975: 3972: 3968: 3965: 3954:on 2019-06-05 3953: 3949: 3945: 3940: 3938: 3934: 3930: 3929: 3924: 3920: 3916: 3912: 3908: 3904: 3900: 3895: 3892: 3888: 3885: 3881: 3875: 3871: 3866: 3862: 3858: 3854: 3850: 3846: 3842: 3839:(3): 361–87. 3838: 3834: 3829: 3825: 3819: 3815: 3811: 3807: 3806: 3801: 3797: 3793: 3788: 3784: 3780: 3776: 3772: 3768: 3764: 3759: 3755: 3751: 3747: 3743: 3739: 3735: 3731: 3727: 3723: 3718: 3714: 3710: 3706: 3702: 3697: 3692: 3689:(2): 153–59. 3688: 3684: 3679: 3676: 3672: 3667: 3662: 3658: 3654: 3650: 3646: 3642: 3638: 3631: 3627: 3623: 3618: 3614: 3610: 3606: 3602: 3598: 3594: 3590: 3586: 3582: 3577: 3575: 3571: 3567: 3563: 3560: 3556: 3553:. 1963. "The 3552: 3549: 3544: 3540: 3536: 3532: 3528: 3524: 3521:(237): 1–11. 3520: 3516: 3512: 3508: 3503: 3499: 3495: 3490: 3485: 3482: 3479: 3476: 3472: 3468: 3462: 3458: 3454: 3449: 3445: 3441: 3437: 3433: 3429: 3425: 3421: 3417: 3415: 3412: 3411: 3407: 3398: 3395: 3389: 3386: 3379: 3376: 3370: 3367: 3360: 3357: 3353: 3341: 3340: 3332: 3329: 3324: 3320: 3315: 3310: 3305: 3300: 3296: 3292: 3288: 3284: 3280: 3273: 3270: 3265: 3252: 3233: 3226: 3219: 3216: 3201: 3200: 3192: 3189: 3183: 3181:9789036800181 3177: 3173: 3169: 3162: 3159: 3154: 3150: 3146: 3139: 3137: 3133: 3128: 3124: 3120: 3116: 3112: 3105: 3102: 3097: 3091: 3087: 3083: 3076: 3073: 3062:on 2007-04-11 3061: 3057: 3056: 3048: 3045: 3039: 3038: 3030: 3027: 3021: 3020:10.3386/h0134 3016: 3012: 3008: 3001: 2998: 2993: 2986: 2983: 2979:. p. 39. 2978: 2971: 2968: 2963: 2950: 2942: 2938: 2931: 2928: 2923: 2916: 2913: 2902:on 2018-01-08 2901: 2897: 2893: 2887: 2884: 2879: 2875: 2871: 2867: 2864:(3): 415–45, 2863: 2859: 2852: 2849: 2844: 2840: 2836: 2832: 2828: 2824: 2820: 2813: 2810: 2801: 2800: 2792: 2789: 2777: 2771: 2768: 2756: 2750: 2747: 2742: 2738: 2733: 2728: 2724: 2720: 2715: 2710: 2706: 2702: 2698: 2694: 2690: 2683: 2680: 2675: 2662: 2653: 2648: 2644: 2637: 2634: 2630: 2626: 2622: 2619:(in French), 2618: 2611: 2608: 2603: 2599: 2592: 2589: 2583: 2576: 2573: 2568: 2561: 2558: 2553: 2547: 2543: 2536: 2534: 2532: 2528: 2512: 2506: 2503: 2498: 2494: 2490: 2486: 2482: 2475: 2472: 2459: 2455: 2451: 2445: 2442: 2429: 2425: 2419: 2416: 2411: 2407: 2402: 2397: 2393: 2389: 2385: 2381: 2377: 2370: 2367: 2362: 2358: 2353: 2348: 2344: 2340: 2336: 2332: 2328: 2321: 2318: 2306: 2302: 2298: 2294: 2290: 2286: 2282: 2278: 2271: 2264: 2261: 2255: 2254:2027.42/74296 2250: 2246: 2242: 2238: 2234: 2227: 2220: 2217: 2212: 2208: 2203: 2198: 2194: 2190: 2186: 2179: 2177: 2173: 2167: 2166:The Economist 2163: 2157: 2154: 2149: 2145: 2139: 2136: 2131: 2130: 2122: 2119: 2113: 2109: 2105: 2099: 2096: 2085:on 2019-06-05 2084: 2080: 2079: 2071: 2068: 2063: 2057: 2054: 2048: 2046: 2042: 2037: 2033: 2027: 2024: 2018: 2016: 2012: 2007: 2003: 1997: 1994: 1990: 1985: 1983: 1981: 1979: 1975: 1964:on 2017-02-26 1963: 1959: 1958: 1950: 1947: 1936:on 2019-06-05 1935: 1931: 1930: 1922: 1920: 1918: 1916: 1914: 1912: 1910: 1908: 1906: 1904: 1902: 1898: 1893: 1889: 1885: 1881: 1877: 1873: 1869: 1862: 1859: 1854: 1848: 1844: 1837: 1834: 1829: 1823: 1819: 1818: 1810: 1807: 1802: 1798: 1794: 1790: 1786: 1782: 1775: 1773: 1769: 1764: 1758: 1754: 1750: 1746: 1741: 1734: 1731: 1726: 1722: 1718: 1714: 1710: 1706: 1699: 1695: 1689: 1687: 1683: 1678: 1674: 1669: 1664: 1660: 1656: 1652: 1648: 1644: 1637: 1635: 1631: 1626: 1622: 1618: 1614: 1610: 1606: 1602: 1598: 1594: 1590: 1583: 1581: 1579: 1577: 1573: 1568: 1566:9781400838868 1562: 1558: 1551: 1549: 1545: 1534: 1533:web.csulb.edu 1530: 1524: 1522: 1520: 1516: 1510: 1505: 1504:Russian cross 1502: 1500: 1497: 1495: 1492: 1490: 1487: 1485: 1482: 1480: 1477: 1475: 1472: 1470: 1467: 1465: 1462: 1460: 1457: 1455: 1452: 1450: 1447: 1445: 1442: 1440: 1437: 1435: 1432: 1430: 1427: 1425: 1422: 1421: 1416: 1414: 1411: 1408: 1407: 1401: 1397: 1393: 1389: 1386: 1381: 1376: 1372: 1370: 1366: 1362: 1358: 1350: 1348: 1344: 1342: 1338: 1332: 1330: 1324: 1320: 1318: 1314: 1310: 1306: 1301: 1294: 1292: 1289: 1287: 1283: 1277: 1273: 1269: 1265: 1262: 1255:United States 1254: 1252: 1248: 1243: 1235: 1233: 1229: 1227: 1220: 1212: 1210: 1203: 1201: 1198: 1190: 1188: 1186: 1182: 1178: 1169: 1167: 1165: 1156: 1154: 1152: 1146: 1139: 1137: 1130: 1128: 1121: 1116: 1112: 1105: 1098: 1096: 1094: 1090: 1085: 1081: 1071: 1064: 1062: 1059: 1055: 1051: 1049: 1048:Eric Kaufmann 1045: 1040: 1035: 1033: 1029: 1025: 1020: 1018: 1017:gender parity 1014: 1009: 1007: 1003: 999: 994: 988: 981: 976: 972: 968: 964: 956: 954: 951: 946: 939: 937: 935: 931: 927: 922: 920: 916: 912: 908: 903: 901: 897: 893: 889: 885: 881: 877: 873: 869: 865: 861: 857: 853: 849: 845: 841: 837: 833: 829: 825: 821: 817: 813: 809: 804: 802: 796: 794: 790: 786: 782: 773: 770: 766: 761: 760: 755: 747: 743: 739: 735: 734: 733: 731: 727: 718: 716: 714: 710: 705: 704:age structure 697: 693: 689: 685: 683: 682:failed states 679: 675: 667: 663: 659: 654: 651: 647: 643: 642:crop rotation 638: 637: 636: 633: 631: 627: 623: 619: 615: 611: 607: 603: 599: 595: 591: 587: 583: 579: 570: 563: 561: 558: 554: 549: 544: 541: 536: 527: 522: 520: 518: 513: 509: 505: 496: 493: 489: 485: 481: 477: 473: 469: 466: 462: 458: 457:contraception 454: 450: 447: 443: 439: 435: 431: 427: 423: 419: 415: 411: 407: 403: 399: 395: 391: 387: 383: 382: 381: 374: 367: 365: 362: 358: 354: 353:European Jews 350: 345: 342: 337: 333: 329: 326:(1887–1973). 325: 321: 313: 311: 308: 307:human capital 304: 300: 296: 292: 288: 284: 279: 277: 273: 269: 265: 261: 257: 253: 242: 239: 224: 221: 213: 210:November 2016 202: 199: 195: 192: 188: 185: 181: 178: 174: 171: – 170: 166: 165:Find sources: 159: 155: 151: 145: 144: 139:This article 137: 133: 128: 127: 118: 115: 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