Knowledge (XXG)

Return period

Source 📝

1817: 1091: 68:
It is a statistical measurement typically based on historic data over an extended period, and is used usually for risk analysis. Examples include deciding whether a project should be allowed to go forward in a zone of a certain risk or designing structures to withstand events with a certain return
172:
to predict the magnitude of such an (unobserved) event. Even if the historic return interval is a lot less than 1000 years, if there are a number of less-severe events of a similar nature recorded, the use of such a model is likely to provide useful information to help estimate the future return
164:
That distinction is significant because there are few observations of rare events: for instance, if observations go back 400 years, the most extreme event (a 400-year event by the statistical definition) may later be classed, on longer observation, as a 200-year event (if a comparable event
161:: it is computed from a set of data (the observations), as distinct from the theoretical value in an idealized distribution. One does not actually know that a certain or greater magnitude happens with 1% probability, only that it has been observed exactly once in 100 years. 1538: 193:. That is disfavoured because each year does not represent an independent Bernoulli trial but is an arbitrary measure of time. This question is mainly academic as the results obtained will be similar under both the Poisson and binomial interpretations. 1686: 888: 1965: 359: 1827:
Return period is useful for risk analysis (such as natural, inherent, or hydrologic risk of failure). When dealing with structure design expectations, the return period is useful in calculating the riskiness of the structure.
1691: 727: 1308: 893: 1372: 1598: 572: 2026: 1401: 826: 1409: 1671: 1176: 2265: 181:
One would like to be able to interpret the return period in probabilistic models. The most logical interpretation for this is to take the return period as the counting rate in a
143:
The theoretical return period between occurrences is the inverse of the average frequency of occurrence. For example, a 10-year flood has a 1/10 = 0.1 or 10% chance of being
113: 1125: 150:
This does not mean that a 100-year flood will happen regularly every 100 years, or only once in 100 years. Despite the connotations of the name "return period". In any
880: 456: 1812:{\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}P(X=1)&={\binom {10}{1}}\times 0.01^{1}\times 0.99^{9}\\&\approx 10\times 0.01\times 0.914\\&\approx 0.0914\end{aligned}}} 1331: 1145: 1200: 1086:{\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}P(r;t)&={\frac {(\mu t)^{r}}{r!}}e^{-\mu t}\\P(r=1;t=10)&={\frac {(10/243)^{1}}{1!}}e^{-10/243}\approx 3.95\%\end{aligned}}} 776: 485: 750: 595: 422: 402: 382: 1848: 854: 215: 2258: 2496: 828:. This means, for example, that there is a 63.2% probability of a flood larger than the 50-year return flood to occur within any period of 50 year. 2864: 154:
100-year period, a 100-year event may occur once, twice, more, or not at all, and each outcome has a probability that can be computed as below.
69:
period. The following analysis assumes that the probability of the event occurring does not vary over time and is independent of past events.
2096: 2251: 185:
since it is the expectation value of the rate of occurrences. An alternative interpretation is to take it as the probability for a yearly
2148: 603: 3490: 1212: 3021: 3485: 1339: 577:
Consequently, the probability of exceedance (i.e. the probability of an event "stronger" than the event with return period
2112:
Peres, D. J.; Cancelliere, A. (2016-10-01). "Estimating return period of landslide triggering by Monte Carlo simulation".
2049: 1333:
is zero. Often that is a close approximation, in which case the probabilities yielded by this formula hold approximately.
3187: 3137: 3031: 1549: 3465: 2059: 1835:
event that exceeds design limits during the expected life of the structure is the complement of the probability that
2691: 493: 3475: 3427: 3310: 202: 1976: 1533:{\displaystyle {\frac {n!}{(n-r)!r!}}\mu ^{r}(1-\mu )^{n-r}\rightarrow e^{-\lambda }{\frac {\lambda ^{r}}{r!}}.} 3521: 3460: 3177: 3142: 2984: 2187: 1377: 168:
Further, one cannot determine the size of a 1000-year event based on such records alone but instead must use a
31: 781: 3470: 3162: 2927: 2054: 144: 1637: 3412: 3270: 2821: 2706: 1150: 3250: 3097: 3059: 2508: 2447: 2149:"Probability analysis of return period of daily maximum rainfall in annual data set of Ludhiana, Punjab" 1203: 190: 62: 3480: 3202: 3026: 2786: 2593: 2387: 2121: 206: 182: 80: 3516: 3376: 3371: 3172: 3016: 2638: 2491: 2412: 2319: 1104: 135:, in terms of the height of the surge, and similarly for other events. This is Weibull's Formula. 3526: 3511: 3402: 3315: 3280: 3132: 2648: 2553: 2457: 2349: 2282: 165:
immediately occurs) or a 500-year event (if no comparable event occurs for a further 100 years).
3122: 147:
in any one year and a 50-year flood has a 0.02 or 2% chance of being exceeded in any one year.
3381: 3220: 3212: 3152: 3112: 3001: 2816: 2578: 2568: 2354: 2168: 2092: 427: 169: 859: 3295: 3197: 3102: 2701: 2696: 2613: 2442: 2314: 2160: 2129: 2084: 2214: 2028:
is the expression for the probability of the occurrence of the event in question in a year;
1316: 1130: 3300: 3260: 3255: 3046: 2859: 2746: 2741: 2525: 2462: 2432: 2397: 2392: 2359: 2324: 2295: 1185: 186: 1960:{\displaystyle {\overline {R}}=1-\left(1-{1 \over T}\right)^{n}=1-(1-P(X\geq x_{T}))^{n}} 755: 464: 2125: 3361: 3245: 3225: 3107: 3092: 2979: 2964: 2959: 2919: 2899: 2811: 2653: 2643: 2633: 2598: 2530: 2515: 2422: 2344: 2304: 2044: 735: 580: 407: 387: 367: 3505: 3442: 3437: 3422: 3407: 3356: 3351: 3117: 3082: 2996: 2991: 2751: 2623: 2583: 2329: 2309: 752:, the probability of exceedance within an interval equal to the return period (i.e. 354:{\displaystyle P(r;t)={(\mu t)^{r} \over r!}e^{-\mu t}={(t/T)^{r} \over r!}e^{-t/T}} 3432: 3182: 3167: 3157: 3006: 2937: 2806: 2771: 2686: 2628: 2503: 2402: 2364: 2339: 2164: 839: 17: 2133: 461:
The probability of no-occurrence can be obtained simply considering the case for
3341: 3265: 2969: 2932: 2879: 2603: 2588: 2563: 2437: 1313:
This is valid only if the probability of more than one occurrence per unit time
132: 3447: 3127: 3011: 2951: 2909: 2781: 2618: 2486: 2427: 2417: 2334: 2243: 50: 2172: 3417: 3366: 3336: 3305: 3235: 3147: 2904: 2791: 2776: 2716: 2663: 2658: 2558: 2481: 2471: 2369: 2237:
Water Resources Engineering, 2005 Edition, John Wiley & Sons, Inc, 2005.
2079:
ASCE, Task Committee on Hydrology Handbook of Management Group D of (1996).
158: 58: 2088: 3087: 3054: 2731: 2573: 2540: 49:, is an average time or an estimated average time between events such as 3397: 3346: 2874: 2869: 2851: 2831: 2736: 2673: 2608: 2545: 3192: 3064: 2889: 2884: 2836: 2826: 2796: 2721: 2476: 2407: 2379: 2278: 131:
For floods, the event may be measured in terms of m/s or height; for
127:
is the rank of observed occurrences when arranged in descending order
1622:
is the number of recorded occurrences of the event being considered
3290: 3275: 3230: 2974: 2947: 2894: 2761: 2756: 2726: 2711: 2520: 2290: 2274: 2192:
National Engineering Handbook, Part 654: Stream Restoration Design
54: 882:) then the probability of exactly one occurrence in ten years is 3320: 3285: 2841: 2801: 2766: 384:
is the number of occurrences the probability is calculated for,
2247: 2116:. Flash floods, hydro-geomorphic response and risk management. 3240: 2681: 722:{\displaystyle P(t>0;t)=1-P(t=0;t)=1-e^{-\mu t}=1-e^{-t/T}} 597:
to occur at least once within the time period of interest) is
1303:{\displaystyle P(X=r)={n \choose r}\mu ^{r}(1-\mu )^{n-r}.} 778:) is independent from the return period and it is equal to 2186:
National Resources Conservation Service (August 2007).
1631:
Given that the return period of an event is 100 years,
1367:{\displaystyle n\rightarrow \infty ,\mu \rightarrow 0} 862: 842: 1979: 1851: 1689: 1640: 1552: 1412: 1380: 1342: 1319: 1215: 1188: 1153: 1133: 1107: 891: 784: 758: 738: 606: 583: 496: 467: 430: 410: 390: 370: 218: 139:
Return period as the reciprocal of expected frequency
83: 3390: 3329: 3211: 3073: 3045: 2946: 2918: 2850: 2672: 2539: 2456: 2378: 2289: 2194:. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Agriculture 2020: 1959: 1811: 1665: 1592: 1532: 1395: 1366: 1325: 1302: 1194: 1170: 1139: 1119: 1085: 874: 848: 820: 770: 744: 721: 589: 566: 479: 450: 416: 396: 376: 353: 107: 1735: 1722: 1593:{\displaystyle \mu ={\frac {1}{T}}={m \over n+1}} 1253: 1240: 2259: 1842:The equation for assessing this parameter is 1676:So the probability that such an event occurs 157:Also, the estimated return period below is a 8: 567:{\displaystyle P(r=0;t)=e^{-\mu t}=e^{-t/T}} 732:Note that for any event with return period 2266: 2252: 2244: 2021:{\displaystyle {1 \over T}=P(X\geq x_{T})} 2009: 1980: 1978: 1951: 1938: 1898: 1883: 1852: 1850: 1839:events occur which exceed design limits. 1761: 1748: 1734: 1721: 1719: 1690: 1688: 1647: 1639: 1572: 1559: 1551: 1511: 1505: 1496: 1477: 1455: 1413: 1411: 1396:{\displaystyle n\mu \rightarrow \lambda } 1379: 1341: 1318: 1285: 1263: 1252: 1239: 1237: 1214: 1187: 1163: 1152: 1132: 1106: 1060: 1053: 1032: 1020: 1011: 958: 937: 921: 892: 890: 861: 841: 783: 757: 737: 709: 702: 677: 605: 582: 554: 547: 528: 495: 466: 440: 429: 409: 389: 369: 341: 334: 313: 301: 292: 277: 256: 240: 217: 87: 82: 2147:Kumar, Rajneesh; Bhardwaj, Anil (2015). 821:{\displaystyle 1-\exp(-1)\approx 63.2\%} 2865:International scale of river difficulty 2153:Indian Journal of Agricultural Research 2071: 2034:is the expected life of the structure. 2219:UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology 1666:{\displaystyle p={1 \over 100}=0.01.} 1178:), the probability of a given number 30:For the satellite return period, see 27:Estimated recurrence time of an event 7: 1171:{\displaystyle \tau =1{\text{year}}} 836:If the return period of occurrence 1726: 1349: 1244: 1076: 815: 25: 3022:Flooded grasslands and savannas 2165:10.5958/0976-058X.2015.00023.2 2015: 1996: 1948: 1944: 1925: 1913: 1709: 1697: 1489: 1474: 1461: 1436: 1424: 1387: 1358: 1346: 1282: 1269: 1231: 1219: 1029: 1014: 1001: 977: 934: 924: 911: 899: 806: 797: 661: 643: 628: 610: 518: 500: 310: 295: 253: 243: 234: 222: 108:{\displaystyle ={n+1 \over m}} 1: 2188:"Chapter 5: Stream Hydrology" 2134:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.03.036 2050:Cumulative frequency analysis 1616:is number of years on record. 1182:of events of a return period 1120:{\displaystyle n\times \tau } 404:the time period of interest, 3188:Universal Soil Loss Equation 3138:Hydrological transport model 3032:Storm Water Management Model 1857: 2215:"Flood Estimation Handbook" 1680:in 10 successive years is: 3543: 2692:Antecedent drainage stream 2081:Hydrology Handbook | Books 121:number of years on record; 73:Estimating a return period 29: 3456: 3428:River valley civilization 3311:Riparian-zone restoration 424:is the return period and 203:probability mass function 177:Probability distributions 3491:Countries without rivers 3466:Rivers by discharge rate 3178:Runoff model (reservoir) 3143:Infiltration (hydrology) 2213:Anonymous (2014-11-07). 875:{\textstyle \mu =0.0041} 451:{\displaystyle \mu =1/T} 32:Satellite revisit period 3163:River Continuum Concept 2928:Agricultural wastewater 2055:Frequency of exceedance 3486:River name etymologies 3413:Hydraulic civilization 3271:Floodplain restoration 3047:Point source pollution 2822:Sedimentary structures 2022: 1961: 1813: 1667: 1594: 1534: 1397: 1368: 1327: 1304: 1196: 1172: 1141: 1121: 1087: 876: 850: 822: 772: 746: 723: 591: 568: 481: 458:is the counting rate. 452: 418: 398: 378: 355: 109: 3098:Discharge (hydrology) 3060:Industrial wastewater 2541:Sedimentary processes 2089:10.1061/9780784401385 2023: 1962: 1814: 1668: 1595: 1535: 1398: 1369: 1328: 1326:{\displaystyle \tau } 1305: 1204:binomial distribution 1197: 1173: 1142: 1140:{\displaystyle \tau } 1122: 1101:In a given period of 1088: 877: 851: 823: 773: 747: 724: 592: 569: 482: 453: 419: 399: 379: 356: 191:binomial distribution 110: 63:river discharge flows 3203:Volumetric flow rate 2787:Riffle-pool sequence 2114:Journal of Hydrology 1977: 1849: 1687: 1638: 1550: 1410: 1378: 1340: 1317: 1213: 1195:{\displaystyle \mu } 1186: 1151: 1131: 1105: 889: 860: 840: 782: 756: 736: 604: 581: 494: 465: 428: 408: 388: 368: 216: 207:Poisson distribution 183:Poisson distribution 81: 77:Recurrence interval 3377:Whitewater kayaking 3372:Whitewater canoeing 3173:Runoff curve number 3017:Flood pulse concept 2126:2016JHyd..541..256P 1831:The probability of 1374:in such a way that 771:{\displaystyle t=T} 480:{\displaystyle r=0} 43:recurrence interval 18:Recurrence interval 3403:Aquatic toxicology 3316:Stream restoration 3281:Infiltration basin 3133:Hydrological model 2649:Sediment transport 2472:Estavelle/Inversac 2350:Subterranean river 2018: 1957: 1809: 1807: 1663: 1610:is return interval 1590: 1530: 1393: 1364: 1323: 1300: 1192: 1168: 1137: 1117: 1083: 1081: 872: 846: 818: 768: 742: 719: 587: 564: 477: 448: 414: 394: 374: 351: 105: 41:, also known as a 3499: 3498: 3476:Whitewater rivers 3382:Whitewater slalom 3213:River engineering 3113:Groundwater model 3074:River measurement 3002:Flood forecasting 2817:Sedimentary basin 2674:Fluvial landforms 2579:Bed material load 2355:River bifurcation 2098:978-0-7844-0138-5 1988: 1891: 1860: 1733: 1655: 1588: 1567: 1525: 1449: 1251: 1166: 1047: 952: 745:{\displaystyle T} 590:{\displaystyle T} 487:. The formula is 417:{\displaystyle T} 397:{\displaystyle t} 377:{\displaystyle r} 328: 271: 170:statistical model 103: 16:(Redirected from 3534: 3461:Rivers by length 3296:River morphology 3198:Wetted perimeter 3103:Drainage density 2614:Headward erosion 2443:Perennial stream 2315:Blackwater river 2268: 2261: 2254: 2245: 2238: 2235: 2229: 2228: 2226: 2225: 2210: 2204: 2203: 2201: 2199: 2183: 2177: 2176: 2144: 2138: 2137: 2109: 2103: 2102: 2076: 2027: 2025: 2024: 2019: 2014: 2013: 1989: 1981: 1966: 1964: 1963: 1958: 1956: 1955: 1943: 1942: 1903: 1902: 1897: 1893: 1892: 1884: 1861: 1853: 1818: 1816: 1815: 1810: 1808: 1795: 1770: 1766: 1765: 1753: 1752: 1740: 1739: 1738: 1725: 1672: 1670: 1669: 1664: 1656: 1648: 1599: 1597: 1596: 1591: 1589: 1587: 1573: 1568: 1560: 1539: 1537: 1536: 1531: 1526: 1524: 1516: 1515: 1506: 1504: 1503: 1488: 1487: 1460: 1459: 1450: 1448: 1422: 1414: 1402: 1400: 1399: 1394: 1373: 1371: 1370: 1365: 1332: 1330: 1329: 1324: 1309: 1307: 1306: 1301: 1296: 1295: 1268: 1267: 1258: 1257: 1256: 1243: 1202:is given by the 1201: 1199: 1198: 1193: 1177: 1175: 1174: 1169: 1167: 1164: 1146: 1144: 1143: 1138: 1127:for a unit time 1126: 1124: 1123: 1118: 1092: 1090: 1089: 1084: 1082: 1069: 1068: 1064: 1048: 1046: 1038: 1037: 1036: 1024: 1012: 969: 968: 953: 951: 943: 942: 941: 922: 881: 879: 878: 873: 855: 853: 852: 847: 827: 825: 824: 819: 777: 775: 774: 769: 751: 749: 748: 743: 728: 726: 725: 720: 718: 717: 713: 688: 687: 596: 594: 593: 588: 573: 571: 570: 565: 563: 562: 558: 539: 538: 486: 484: 483: 478: 457: 455: 454: 449: 444: 423: 421: 420: 415: 403: 401: 400: 395: 383: 381: 380: 375: 360: 358: 357: 352: 350: 349: 345: 329: 327: 319: 318: 317: 305: 293: 288: 287: 272: 270: 262: 261: 260: 241: 114: 112: 111: 106: 104: 99: 88: 21: 3542: 3541: 3537: 3536: 3535: 3533: 3532: 3531: 3522:Time in science 3502: 3501: 3500: 3495: 3471:Drainage basins 3452: 3386: 3325: 3301:Retention basin 3261:Erosion control 3256:Detention basin 3207: 3123:Hjulström curve 3075: 3069: 3041: 2985:Non-water flood 2942: 2914: 2860:Helicoidal flow 2846: 2747:Fluvial terrace 2742:Floating island 2668: 2543: 2535: 2526:Rhythmic spring 2460: 2452: 2433:Stream gradient 2374: 2360:River ecosystem 2325:Channel pattern 2293: 2285: 2272: 2242: 2241: 2236: 2232: 2223: 2221: 2212: 2211: 2207: 2197: 2195: 2185: 2184: 2180: 2146: 2145: 2141: 2111: 2110: 2106: 2099: 2078: 2077: 2073: 2068: 2041: 2005: 1975: 1974: 1947: 1934: 1876: 1872: 1871: 1847: 1846: 1825: 1806: 1805: 1793: 1792: 1768: 1767: 1757: 1744: 1720: 1712: 1685: 1684: 1636: 1635: 1629: 1577: 1548: 1547: 1517: 1507: 1492: 1473: 1451: 1423: 1415: 1408: 1407: 1376: 1375: 1338: 1337: 1315: 1314: 1281: 1259: 1238: 1211: 1210: 1184: 1183: 1149: 1148: 1129: 1128: 1103: 1102: 1099: 1080: 1079: 1049: 1039: 1028: 1013: 1004: 971: 970: 954: 944: 933: 923: 914: 887: 886: 858: 857: 838: 837: 834: 780: 779: 754: 753: 734: 733: 698: 673: 602: 601: 579: 578: 543: 524: 492: 491: 463: 462: 426: 425: 406: 405: 386: 385: 366: 365: 330: 320: 309: 294: 273: 263: 252: 242: 214: 213: 199: 187:Bernoulli trial 179: 141: 89: 79: 78: 75: 47:repeat interval 35: 28: 23: 22: 15: 12: 11: 5: 3540: 3538: 3530: 3529: 3524: 3519: 3514: 3504: 3503: 3497: 3496: 3494: 3493: 3488: 3483: 3478: 3473: 3468: 3463: 3457: 3454: 3453: 3451: 3450: 3445: 3440: 3435: 3430: 3425: 3420: 3415: 3410: 3405: 3400: 3394: 3392: 3388: 3387: 3385: 3384: 3379: 3374: 3369: 3364: 3362:Stone skipping 3359: 3354: 3349: 3344: 3339: 3333: 3331: 3327: 3326: 3324: 3323: 3318: 3313: 3308: 3303: 3298: 3293: 3288: 3283: 3278: 3273: 3268: 3263: 3258: 3253: 3248: 3246:Drop structure 3243: 3238: 3233: 3228: 3226:Balancing lake 3223: 3217: 3215: 3209: 3208: 3206: 3205: 3200: 3195: 3190: 3185: 3180: 3175: 3170: 3165: 3160: 3155: 3153:Playfair's law 3150: 3145: 3140: 3135: 3130: 3125: 3120: 3115: 3110: 3108:Exner equation 3105: 3100: 3095: 3093:Bradshaw model 3090: 3085: 3079: 3077: 3071: 3070: 3068: 3067: 3062: 3057: 3051: 3049: 3043: 3042: 3040: 3039: 3034: 3029: 3024: 3019: 3014: 3009: 3004: 2999: 2994: 2989: 2988: 2987: 2982: 2980:Urban flooding 2972: 2967: 2965:Crevasse splay 2962: 2960:100-year flood 2956: 2954: 2944: 2943: 2941: 2940: 2935: 2930: 2924: 2922: 2920:Surface runoff 2916: 2915: 2913: 2912: 2907: 2902: 2900:Stream capture 2897: 2892: 2887: 2882: 2877: 2872: 2867: 2862: 2856: 2854: 2848: 2847: 2845: 2844: 2839: 2834: 2829: 2824: 2819: 2814: 2812:Rock-cut basin 2809: 2804: 2799: 2794: 2789: 2784: 2779: 2774: 2769: 2764: 2759: 2754: 2749: 2744: 2739: 2734: 2729: 2724: 2719: 2714: 2709: 2704: 2699: 2694: 2689: 2684: 2678: 2676: 2670: 2669: 2667: 2666: 2661: 2656: 2654:Suspended load 2651: 2646: 2644:Secondary flow 2641: 2636: 2634:Retrogradation 2631: 2626: 2621: 2616: 2611: 2606: 2601: 2599:Dissolved load 2596: 2591: 2586: 2581: 2576: 2571: 2566: 2561: 2556: 2550: 2548: 2537: 2536: 2534: 2533: 2531:Spring horizon 2528: 2523: 2518: 2516:Mineral spring 2513: 2512: 2511: 2501: 2500: 2499: 2497:list in the US 2494: 2484: 2479: 2474: 2468: 2466: 2454: 2453: 2451: 2450: 2445: 2440: 2435: 2430: 2425: 2423:Stream channel 2420: 2415: 2410: 2405: 2400: 2395: 2390: 2384: 2382: 2376: 2375: 2373: 2372: 2367: 2362: 2357: 2352: 2347: 2345:Drainage basin 2342: 2337: 2332: 2327: 2322: 2317: 2312: 2307: 2305:Alluvial river 2301: 2299: 2287: 2286: 2273: 2271: 2270: 2263: 2256: 2248: 2240: 2239: 2230: 2205: 2178: 2139: 2104: 2097: 2070: 2069: 2067: 2064: 2063: 2062: 2060:Residence time 2057: 2052: 2047: 2045:100-year flood 2040: 2037: 2036: 2035: 2029: 2017: 2012: 2008: 2004: 2001: 1998: 1995: 1992: 1987: 1984: 1968: 1967: 1954: 1950: 1946: 1941: 1937: 1933: 1930: 1927: 1924: 1921: 1918: 1915: 1912: 1909: 1906: 1901: 1896: 1890: 1887: 1882: 1879: 1875: 1870: 1867: 1864: 1859: 1856: 1824: 1821: 1820: 1819: 1804: 1801: 1798: 1796: 1794: 1791: 1788: 1785: 1782: 1779: 1776: 1773: 1771: 1769: 1764: 1760: 1756: 1751: 1747: 1743: 1737: 1732: 1729: 1724: 1718: 1715: 1713: 1711: 1708: 1705: 1702: 1699: 1696: 1693: 1692: 1674: 1673: 1662: 1659: 1654: 1651: 1646: 1643: 1628: 1625: 1624: 1623: 1617: 1611: 1601: 1600: 1586: 1583: 1580: 1576: 1571: 1566: 1563: 1558: 1555: 1541: 1540: 1529: 1523: 1520: 1514: 1510: 1502: 1499: 1495: 1491: 1486: 1483: 1480: 1476: 1472: 1469: 1466: 1463: 1458: 1454: 1447: 1444: 1441: 1438: 1435: 1432: 1429: 1426: 1421: 1418: 1392: 1389: 1386: 1383: 1363: 1360: 1357: 1354: 1351: 1348: 1345: 1322: 1311: 1310: 1299: 1294: 1291: 1288: 1284: 1280: 1277: 1274: 1271: 1266: 1262: 1255: 1250: 1247: 1242: 1236: 1233: 1230: 1227: 1224: 1221: 1218: 1191: 1162: 1159: 1156: 1136: 1116: 1113: 1110: 1098: 1095: 1094: 1093: 1078: 1075: 1072: 1067: 1063: 1059: 1056: 1052: 1045: 1042: 1035: 1031: 1027: 1023: 1019: 1016: 1010: 1007: 1005: 1003: 1000: 997: 994: 991: 988: 985: 982: 979: 976: 973: 972: 967: 964: 961: 957: 950: 947: 940: 936: 932: 929: 926: 920: 917: 915: 913: 910: 907: 904: 901: 898: 895: 894: 871: 868: 865: 856:is 243 years ( 849:{\textstyle T} 845: 833: 830: 817: 814: 811: 808: 805: 802: 799: 796: 793: 790: 787: 767: 764: 761: 741: 730: 729: 716: 712: 708: 705: 701: 697: 694: 691: 686: 683: 680: 676: 672: 669: 666: 663: 660: 657: 654: 651: 648: 645: 642: 639: 636: 633: 630: 627: 624: 621: 618: 615: 612: 609: 586: 575: 574: 561: 557: 553: 550: 546: 542: 537: 534: 531: 527: 523: 520: 517: 514: 511: 508: 505: 502: 499: 476: 473: 470: 447: 443: 439: 436: 433: 413: 393: 373: 362: 361: 348: 344: 340: 337: 333: 326: 323: 316: 312: 308: 304: 300: 297: 291: 286: 283: 280: 276: 269: 266: 259: 255: 251: 248: 245: 239: 236: 233: 230: 227: 224: 221: 198: 195: 178: 175: 140: 137: 129: 128: 122: 102: 98: 95: 92: 86: 74: 71: 26: 24: 14: 13: 10: 9: 6: 4: 3: 2: 3539: 3528: 3525: 3523: 3520: 3518: 3515: 3513: 3510: 3509: 3507: 3492: 3489: 3487: 3484: 3482: 3479: 3477: 3474: 3472: 3469: 3467: 3464: 3462: 3459: 3458: 3455: 3449: 3446: 3444: 3443:Surface water 3441: 3439: 3438:Sacred waters 3436: 3434: 3431: 3429: 3426: 3424: 3423:Riparian zone 3421: 3419: 3416: 3414: 3411: 3409: 3408:Body of water 3406: 3404: 3401: 3399: 3396: 3395: 3393: 3389: 3383: 3380: 3378: 3375: 3373: 3370: 3368: 3365: 3363: 3360: 3358: 3357:Riverboarding 3355: 3353: 3352:River surfing 3350: 3348: 3345: 3343: 3340: 3338: 3335: 3334: 3332: 3328: 3322: 3319: 3317: 3314: 3312: 3309: 3307: 3304: 3302: 3299: 3297: 3294: 3292: 3289: 3287: 3284: 3282: 3279: 3277: 3274: 3272: 3269: 3267: 3264: 3262: 3259: 3257: 3254: 3252: 3249: 3247: 3244: 3242: 3239: 3237: 3234: 3232: 3229: 3227: 3224: 3222: 3219: 3218: 3216: 3214: 3210: 3204: 3201: 3199: 3196: 3194: 3191: 3189: 3186: 3184: 3181: 3179: 3176: 3174: 3171: 3169: 3166: 3164: 3161: 3159: 3156: 3154: 3151: 3149: 3146: 3144: 3141: 3139: 3136: 3134: 3131: 3129: 3126: 3124: 3121: 3119: 3116: 3114: 3111: 3109: 3106: 3104: 3101: 3099: 3096: 3094: 3091: 3089: 3086: 3084: 3081: 3080: 3078: 3076:and modelling 3072: 3066: 3063: 3061: 3058: 3056: 3053: 3052: 3050: 3048: 3044: 3038: 3037:Return period 3035: 3033: 3030: 3028: 3025: 3023: 3020: 3018: 3015: 3013: 3010: 3008: 3005: 3003: 3000: 2998: 2997:Flood control 2995: 2993: 2992:Flood barrier 2990: 2986: 2983: 2981: 2978: 2977: 2976: 2973: 2971: 2968: 2966: 2963: 2961: 2958: 2957: 2955: 2953: 2949: 2945: 2939: 2936: 2934: 2931: 2929: 2926: 2925: 2923: 2921: 2917: 2911: 2908: 2906: 2903: 2901: 2898: 2896: 2893: 2891: 2888: 2886: 2883: 2881: 2878: 2876: 2873: 2871: 2868: 2866: 2863: 2861: 2858: 2857: 2855: 2853: 2849: 2843: 2840: 2838: 2835: 2833: 2830: 2828: 2825: 2823: 2820: 2818: 2815: 2813: 2810: 2808: 2805: 2803: 2800: 2798: 2795: 2793: 2790: 2788: 2785: 2783: 2780: 2778: 2775: 2773: 2770: 2768: 2765: 2763: 2760: 2758: 2755: 2753: 2750: 2748: 2745: 2743: 2740: 2738: 2735: 2733: 2730: 2728: 2725: 2723: 2720: 2718: 2715: 2713: 2710: 2708: 2705: 2703: 2700: 2698: 2695: 2693: 2690: 2688: 2685: 2683: 2680: 2679: 2677: 2675: 2671: 2665: 2662: 2660: 2657: 2655: 2652: 2650: 2647: 2645: 2642: 2640: 2637: 2635: 2632: 2630: 2627: 2625: 2624:Palaeochannel 2622: 2620: 2617: 2615: 2612: 2610: 2607: 2605: 2602: 2600: 2597: 2595: 2592: 2590: 2587: 2585: 2584:Granular flow 2582: 2580: 2577: 2575: 2572: 2570: 2567: 2565: 2562: 2560: 2557: 2555: 2552: 2551: 2549: 2547: 2542: 2538: 2532: 2529: 2527: 2524: 2522: 2519: 2517: 2514: 2510: 2507: 2506: 2505: 2502: 2498: 2495: 2493: 2490: 2489: 2488: 2485: 2483: 2480: 2478: 2475: 2473: 2470: 2469: 2467: 2464: 2459: 2455: 2449: 2446: 2444: 2441: 2439: 2436: 2434: 2431: 2429: 2426: 2424: 2421: 2419: 2416: 2414: 2411: 2409: 2406: 2404: 2401: 2399: 2396: 2394: 2391: 2389: 2386: 2385: 2383: 2381: 2377: 2371: 2368: 2366: 2363: 2361: 2358: 2356: 2353: 2351: 2348: 2346: 2343: 2341: 2338: 2336: 2333: 2331: 2330:Channel types 2328: 2326: 2323: 2321: 2318: 2316: 2313: 2311: 2310:Braided river 2308: 2306: 2303: 2302: 2300: 2297: 2292: 2288: 2284: 2280: 2276: 2269: 2264: 2262: 2257: 2255: 2250: 2249: 2246: 2234: 2231: 2220: 2216: 2209: 2206: 2193: 2189: 2182: 2179: 2174: 2170: 2166: 2162: 2158: 2154: 2150: 2143: 2140: 2135: 2131: 2127: 2123: 2119: 2115: 2108: 2105: 2100: 2094: 2090: 2086: 2082: 2075: 2072: 2065: 2061: 2058: 2056: 2053: 2051: 2048: 2046: 2043: 2042: 2038: 2033: 2030: 2010: 2006: 2002: 1999: 1993: 1990: 1985: 1982: 1973: 1972: 1971: 1952: 1939: 1935: 1931: 1928: 1922: 1919: 1916: 1910: 1907: 1904: 1899: 1894: 1888: 1885: 1880: 1877: 1873: 1868: 1865: 1862: 1854: 1845: 1844: 1843: 1840: 1838: 1834: 1829: 1823:Risk analysis 1822: 1802: 1799: 1797: 1789: 1786: 1783: 1780: 1777: 1774: 1772: 1762: 1758: 1754: 1749: 1745: 1741: 1730: 1727: 1716: 1714: 1706: 1703: 1700: 1694: 1683: 1682: 1681: 1679: 1660: 1657: 1652: 1649: 1644: 1641: 1634: 1633: 1632: 1626: 1621: 1618: 1615: 1612: 1609: 1606: 1605: 1604: 1584: 1581: 1578: 1574: 1569: 1564: 1561: 1556: 1553: 1546: 1545: 1544: 1527: 1521: 1518: 1512: 1508: 1500: 1497: 1493: 1484: 1481: 1478: 1470: 1467: 1464: 1456: 1452: 1445: 1442: 1439: 1433: 1430: 1427: 1419: 1416: 1406: 1405: 1404: 1390: 1384: 1381: 1361: 1355: 1352: 1343: 1334: 1320: 1297: 1292: 1289: 1286: 1278: 1275: 1272: 1264: 1260: 1248: 1245: 1234: 1228: 1225: 1222: 1216: 1209: 1208: 1207: 1205: 1189: 1181: 1160: 1157: 1154: 1134: 1114: 1111: 1108: 1096: 1073: 1070: 1065: 1061: 1057: 1054: 1050: 1043: 1040: 1033: 1025: 1021: 1017: 1008: 1006: 998: 995: 992: 989: 986: 983: 980: 974: 965: 962: 959: 955: 948: 945: 938: 930: 927: 918: 916: 908: 905: 902: 896: 885: 884: 883: 869: 866: 863: 843: 831: 829: 812: 809: 803: 800: 794: 791: 788: 785: 765: 762: 759: 739: 714: 710: 706: 703: 699: 695: 692: 689: 684: 681: 678: 674: 670: 667: 664: 658: 655: 652: 649: 646: 640: 637: 634: 631: 625: 622: 619: 616: 613: 607: 600: 599: 598: 584: 559: 555: 551: 548: 544: 540: 535: 532: 529: 525: 521: 515: 512: 509: 506: 503: 497: 490: 489: 488: 474: 471: 468: 459: 445: 441: 437: 434: 431: 411: 391: 371: 346: 342: 338: 335: 331: 324: 321: 314: 306: 302: 298: 289: 284: 281: 278: 274: 267: 264: 257: 249: 246: 237: 231: 228: 225: 219: 212: 211: 210: 208: 204: 196: 194: 192: 188: 184: 176: 174: 171: 166: 162: 160: 155: 153: 148: 146: 138: 136: 134: 126: 123: 120: 117: 116: 115: 100: 96: 93: 90: 84: 72: 70: 66: 64: 60: 56: 52: 48: 44: 40: 39:return period 33: 19: 3481:Flash floods 3433:River cruise 3330:River sports 3183:Stream gauge 3168:Rouse number 3158:Relief ratio 3036: 3007:Flood-meadow 2938:Urban runoff 2852:Fluvial flow 2837:River valley 2807:River island 2772:Meander scar 2687:Alluvial fan 2629:Progradation 2504:Karst spring 2448:Winterbourne 2403:Chalk stream 2365:River source 2340:Distributary 2233: 2222:. Retrieved 2218: 2208: 2196:. Retrieved 2191: 2181: 2156: 2152: 2142: 2117: 2113: 2107: 2080: 2074: 2031: 1969: 1841: 1836: 1833:at least one 1832: 1830: 1826: 1678:exactly once 1677: 1675: 1630: 1619: 1613: 1607: 1602: 1542: 1335: 1312: 1206:as follows. 1179: 1100: 835: 731: 576: 460: 363: 200: 180: 167: 163: 156: 151: 149: 142: 133:storm surges 130: 124: 118: 76: 67: 46: 42: 38: 36: 3342:Fly fishing 3266:Fish ladder 3251:Daylighting 2970:Flash flood 2933:First flush 2880:Plunge pool 2604:Downcutting 2589:Debris flow 2564:Aggradation 2438:Stream pool 2120:: 256–271. 51:earthquakes 3517:Seismology 3506:Categories 3448:Wild river 3128:Hydrograph 3118:Hack's law 3083:Baer's law 3027:Inundation 3012:Floodplain 2952:stormwater 2910:Whitewater 2782:Oxbow lake 2619:Knickpoint 2594:Deposition 2487:Hot spring 2428:Streamflow 2418:Stream bed 2335:Confluence 2224:2019-12-21 2198:7 February 2159:(2): 160. 2066:References 173:interval. 65:to occur. 59:landslides 3527:Durations 3512:Hydrology 3418:Limnology 3367:Triathlon 3337:Canyoning 3306:Revetment 3236:Check dam 3148:Main stem 2905:Waterfall 2792:Point bar 2777:Mouth bar 2717:Billabong 2664:Water gap 2659:Wash load 2639:Saltation 2559:Anabranch 2482:Holy well 2370:Tributary 2173:0367-8245 2003:≥ 1932:≥ 1920:− 1911:− 1881:− 1869:− 1858:¯ 1800:≈ 1787:× 1781:× 1775:≈ 1755:× 1742:× 1554:μ 1509:λ 1501:λ 1498:− 1490:→ 1482:− 1471:μ 1468:− 1453:μ 1431:− 1391:λ 1388:→ 1385:μ 1359:→ 1356:μ 1350:∞ 1347:→ 1321:τ 1290:− 1279:μ 1276:− 1261:μ 1190:μ 1155:τ 1135:τ 1115:τ 1112:× 1077:% 1071:≈ 1055:− 963:μ 960:− 928:μ 864:μ 816:% 810:≈ 801:− 795:⁡ 789:− 704:− 696:− 682:μ 679:− 671:− 638:− 549:− 533:μ 530:− 432:μ 336:− 282:μ 279:− 247:μ 159:statistic 3221:Aqueduct 3088:Baseflow 3055:Effluent 2732:Cut bank 2697:Avulsion 2574:Bed load 2554:Abrasion 2039:See also 1097:Binomial 145:exceeded 3398:Aquifer 3391:Related 3347:Rafting 2875:Meander 2870:Log jam 2832:Thalweg 2737:Estuary 2609:Erosion 2546:erosion 2458:Springs 2413:Current 2380:Streams 2320:Channel 2283:springs 2279:streams 2122:Bibcode 1627:Example 832:Example 205:of the 197:Poisson 189:in the 3193:WAFLEX 3065:Sewage 2948:Floods 2890:Riffle 2885:Rapids 2827:Strath 2797:Ravine 2722:Canyon 2477:Geyser 2408:Coulee 2393:Bourne 2388:Arroyo 2291:Rivers 2275:Rivers 2171:  2095:  1970:where 1803:0.0914 1603:where 1147:(e.g. 870:0.0041 364:where 55:floods 3291:Levee 3276:Flume 3231:Canal 2975:Flood 2895:Shoal 2762:Gully 2757:Gulch 2727:Chine 2712:Bayou 2569:Armor 2521:Ponor 2296:lists 1790:0.914 1661:0.01. 1543:Take 1403:then 152:given 61:, or 3321:Weir 3286:Leat 2950:and 2842:Wadi 2802:Rill 2767:Glen 2752:Gill 2702:Bank 2544:and 2509:list 2492:list 2463:list 2398:Burn 2281:and 2200:2023 2169:ISSN 2093:ISBN 1784:0.01 1759:0.99 1746:0.01 1165:year 1074:3.95 813:63.2 617:> 201:The 3241:Dam 2707:Bar 2682:Ait 2161:doi 2130:doi 2118:541 2085:doi 1653:100 1336:If 1066:243 1026:243 792:exp 209:is 45:or 3508:: 2277:, 2217:. 2190:. 2167:. 2157:49 2155:. 2151:. 2128:. 2091:. 2083:. 1837:no 1778:10 1728:10 1058:10 1018:10 999:10 57:, 53:, 37:A 2465:) 2461:( 2298:) 2294:( 2267:e 2260:t 2253:v 2227:. 2202:. 2175:. 2163:: 2136:. 2132:: 2124:: 2101:. 2087:: 2032:n 2016:) 2011:T 2007:x 2000:X 1997:( 1994:P 1991:= 1986:T 1983:1 1953:n 1949:) 1945:) 1940:T 1936:x 1929:X 1926:( 1923:P 1917:1 1914:( 1908:1 1905:= 1900:n 1895:) 1889:T 1886:1 1878:1 1874:( 1866:1 1863:= 1855:R 1763:9 1750:1 1736:) 1731:1 1723:( 1717:= 1710:) 1707:1 1704:= 1701:X 1698:( 1695:P 1658:= 1650:1 1645:= 1642:p 1620:m 1614:n 1608:T 1585:1 1582:+ 1579:n 1575:m 1570:= 1565:T 1562:1 1557:= 1528:. 1522:! 1519:r 1513:r 1494:e 1485:r 1479:n 1475:) 1465:1 1462:( 1457:r 1446:! 1443:r 1440:! 1437:) 1434:r 1428:n 1425:( 1420:! 1417:n 1382:n 1362:0 1353:, 1344:n 1298:. 1293:r 1287:n 1283:) 1273:1 1270:( 1265:r 1254:) 1249:r 1246:n 1241:( 1235:= 1232:) 1229:r 1226:= 1223:X 1220:( 1217:P 1180:r 1161:1 1158:= 1109:n 1062:/ 1051:e 1044:! 1041:1 1034:1 1030:) 1022:/ 1015:( 1009:= 1002:) 996:= 993:t 990:; 987:1 984:= 981:r 978:( 975:P 966:t 956:e 949:! 946:r 939:r 935:) 931:t 925:( 919:= 912:) 909:t 906:; 903:r 900:( 897:P 867:= 844:T 807:) 804:1 798:( 786:1 766:T 763:= 760:t 740:T 715:T 711:/ 707:t 700:e 693:1 690:= 685:t 675:e 668:1 665:= 662:) 659:t 656:; 653:0 650:= 647:t 644:( 641:P 635:1 632:= 629:) 626:t 623:; 620:0 614:t 611:( 608:P 585:T 560:T 556:/ 552:t 545:e 541:= 536:t 526:e 522:= 519:) 516:t 513:; 510:0 507:= 504:r 501:( 498:P 475:0 472:= 469:r 446:T 442:/ 438:1 435:= 412:T 392:t 372:r 347:T 343:/ 339:t 332:e 325:! 322:r 315:r 311:) 307:T 303:/ 299:t 296:( 290:= 285:t 275:e 268:! 265:r 258:r 254:) 250:t 244:( 238:= 235:) 232:t 229:; 226:r 223:( 220:P 125:m 119:n 101:m 97:1 94:+ 91:n 85:= 34:. 20:)

Index

Recurrence interval
Satellite revisit period
earthquakes
floods
landslides
river discharge flows
storm surges
exceeded
statistic
statistical model
Poisson distribution
Bernoulli trial
binomial distribution
probability mass function
Poisson distribution
binomial distribution
100-year flood
Cumulative frequency analysis
Frequency of exceedance
Residence time
doi
10.1061/9780784401385
ISBN
978-0-7844-0138-5
Bibcode
2016JHyd..541..256P
doi
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.03.036
"Probability analysis of return period of daily maximum rainfall in annual data set of Ludhiana, Punjab"
doi

Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. Additional terms may apply.