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Talk:Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence/Archive 1

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There's definitely a lot that can be said about ECREE – discussion of the history (eg how the older versions are different, such as "proof" in Truzzi's version), discussion of how people have used it and misused it (eg, discussed in one of the papers I cited in the AfD), arguments about its failings,
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suggests that this article, created 2016, is the source for all later uses of the exact term "Sagan standard". Three sources were helpfully produced in that discussion to disprove the suggestion, and I have added two here though, apologies, not following the established citation pattern for this
86:. This aphorism is commonly used in skeptical discussions, but there is little evidence of it being widely known as "the Sagan standard". There may well be enough intellectual history behind the aphorism, independent of Sagan's popularization, to merit a deeper discussion in its own article. 229:
The whole episode could be deleted or reduced to Armstrong's actual words, but there is a larger problem that this article is about the imaginary phenomenon of ECREE being called by the name "Sagan standard" (which is no more common than the also unusual acronym "ECREE"). Also,
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FAC. I hope someone can fix the style of the refs, and that editors agree it's useful to include them. The sources may not be particularly "reliable" but they support the statement that the term was in use. Any earlier examples would be great, of course. @
122:; I didn't see this aphorism mentioned, but one of the points made about prior expectations and the probability of false positives was a technical version of exactly the same thing). The hard work will be digging up suitable reliable sources, to avoid 363:
Sorry, but that's not particularly convincing. There is a strong precedent in usgae for hatnotes pointing towards Knowledge policies and essays. I have readded it and would appreciate if you gained consensus before changing the status quo. ~
329:. Unless substantially part of the article topic, do not refer to the fact that the page can be edited, nor mention any Knowledge project page or process, specialized Knowledge jargon (e.g. "PoV" in place of "biased"), or any 488:
Halfway throught the second paragraph of the section titled "Analysis and criticism" appears this extraordinary sentence (italics added): "Additionally, there are concerns that, when inconsistently applied, the standard
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I'm sorry you're not convinced. The guideline is a guideline for a reason, because it has strong community consensus behind it. You've also re-added content inappropriate for reusers of our content in violation of
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I assume we want to preserve the history of the page. There's virtually no history at the redirect page, so do we have that page deleted (admin required?) and then this one renamed? (Assuming we get consensus.) –
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reports that sagan's version was published in december, and truzzi's version in late 1975, so it looks like sagan's interview appears closer to two years after truzzi than to either one or three years after
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to make it easier for content reusers to remove the self reference and keep it from being included erroneously in printed media of these pages. But I'm not convinced this hatnote adds value for our readers.
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This article discusses the similarities between the SS and Jefferson's thoughts. But isn't this comparison just OR? So far as I can see no cited source draws this parallel. Or have I missed something?
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suggest that Armstrong's wording was different, about extraordinary "allegations" and "proof", and that he was not asked the question about the standard of proof for murderers.
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in the article lead, should "a year prior to Sagan" be replaced with "two years prior to Sagan"? the article body states that sagan first used the phrase in a
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by the way, the quoteinvestigator source mentions that truzzi's wording appeared in a letter rather than an article, which appears to be similarly asserted by
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Well, a page mover could simply swap the two pages (three separate moves-without-redirect), so would not necessarily require an admin.
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and even a mathematical justification for it in terms of Bayesian analysis (I saw this recently in a discussion about the use of
78:, I'd like to continue the discussion here by seconding the support for either merging the relevant bits of this article into 571: 513: 38: 585: 567: 498: 509: 265: 243: 465: 429: 221: 581: 398: 394: 351: 347: 292: 277: 273: 566:
IMO a move to "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" would be much more recognizable
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racial and gender biases." Surely the word intended is "exacerbates" and should be corrected.
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I may be reading it wrong, but I'm not sure whether the "self-reference tools" section of
137: 551: 298: 193: 178: 272:. None of those apply to this instance. Do not re-add the self reference. Thank you. — 538: 390: 174: 123: 365: 325:
Mentioning the Knowledge community, or website features, can confuse readers of
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If you wish to start a new discussion or revive an old one, please do so on the
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I agree with your reasoning about the name "Sagan standard." I think we should
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It may be useful to integrate this analysis into the article. Thanks! --
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https://www.si.com/more-sports/2012/10/22/david-walsh-lance-armstrong
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A useful Bayesian interpretation of the claim is presented at:
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seems to be at least as common a phrasing of the aphorism as
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interface link in the sidebar or along the top of the screen
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Talk:Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence
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interview in 1977, and that truzzi's publication in
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It would be analogous to what we have with the page
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extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence
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extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence
335:. If it's to stay on the page, yes, you would use 175:https://arbital.com/p/bayes_extraordinary_claims 580:I agree and have started a move request below. 76:Knowledge:Articles for deletion/Sagan standard 323:I was looking at this passage in particular: 8: 508:Correction has been made. Good catch. 324: 44:Do not edit the contents of this page. 7: 110:Correlation does not imply causation 74:As a followup to the inconclusive 24: 218:The sources cited, and this one 29: 561:07:54, 25 September 2023 (UTC) 453:cited quoteinvestigator source 1: 434:09:42, 21 December 2023 (UTC) 264:The self reference was added 82:or replacing the redirect at 576:14:51, 23 January 2024 (UTC) 248:19:21, 7 December 2020 (UTC) 208:22:41, 29 October 2020 (UTC) 187:13:28, 29 October 2020 (UTC) 160:16:59, 19 October 2017 (UTC) 142:15:57, 19 October 2017 (UTC) 95:07:29, 19 October 2017 (UTC) 608: 590:11:29, 12 March 2024 (UTC) 518:02:03, 12 March 2024 (UTC) 503:01:56, 12 March 2024 (UTC) 479:05:59, 9 March 2024 (UTC) 102:replace the redirect at 451:appeared in 1975. the 406:22:01, 8 May 2021 (UTC) 380:21:37, 8 May 2021 (UTC) 359:21:25, 8 May 2021 (UTC) 317:21:02, 8 May 2021 (UTC) 285:19:24, 8 May 2021 (UTC) 214:Armstrong misquotations 169:Bayesian interpretation 524:First use of the term 449:parapsychology review 42:of past discussions. 301:forbids hatnotes. ~ 568:CactiStaccingCrane 391:disruptive editing 510:A. Randomdude0000 205: 192:I am all for it. 162: 67: 66: 54: 53: 48:current talk page 599: 558: 549: 528:A discussion at 377: 370: 344: 338: 314: 307: 296: 263: 204: 200: 197: 156: 150: 91: 70:Merge discussion 63: 56: 55: 33: 32: 26: 607: 606: 602: 601: 600: 598: 597: 596: 552: 543: 526: 486: 445:washington post 441: 422: 373: 366: 342: 336: 310: 303: 290: 257: 255: 253:Self references 216: 198: 195: 171: 154: 89: 72: 59: 30: 22: 21: 20: 12: 11: 5: 605: 603: 595: 594: 593: 592: 525: 522: 521: 520: 485: 482: 440: 437: 421: 418: 417: 416: 415: 414: 413: 412: 411: 410: 409: 408: 266:with this edit 254: 251: 215: 212: 211: 210: 170: 167: 166: 165: 164: 163: 145: 144: 128: 127: 114: 113: 71: 68: 65: 64: 52: 51: 34: 23: 15: 14: 13: 10: 9: 6: 4: 3: 2: 604: 591: 587: 583: 579: 578: 577: 573: 569: 565: 564: 563: 562: 559: 557: 556: 550: 548: 547: 540: 536: 531: 523: 519: 515: 511: 507: 506: 505: 504: 500: 496: 495:75.118.14.168 492: 484:Exercerbates? 483: 481: 480: 476: 472: 468: 467: 463:published in 462: 457: 454: 450: 446: 438: 436: 435: 431: 427: 419: 407: 404: 400: 396: 392: 388: 383: 382: 381: 378: 376: 371: 369: 362: 361: 360: 357: 353: 349: 341: 334: 332: 328: 327:derived works 322: 321: 320: 319: 318: 315: 313: 308: 306: 300: 294: 289: 288: 287: 286: 283: 279: 275: 271: 267: 261: 252: 250: 249: 245: 241: 237: 236:extraordinary 233: 227: 224: 223: 219: 213: 209: 206: 202: 201: 191: 190: 189: 188: 184: 180: 176: 168: 161: 158: 157: 149: 148: 147: 146: 143: 139: 135: 130: 129: 125: 121: 116: 115: 111: 107: 105: 99: 98: 97: 96: 93: 92: 85: 81: 77: 69: 62: 58: 57: 49: 45: 41: 40: 35: 28: 27: 19: 554: 553: 545: 544: 527: 491:exercerbates 490: 487: 464: 461:this article 458: 448: 444: 442: 423: 374: 367: 311: 304: 256: 240:73.89.25.252 235: 231: 228: 225: 220: 217: 194: 172: 153: 101: 88: 73: 60: 43: 37: 535:Silverseren 466:philosophia 426:Bon courage 232:exceptional 36:This is an 395:Locke Cole 389:, this is 387:WP:SELFREF 348:Locke Cole 293:Locke Cole 274:Locke Cole 270:WP:SELFREF 80:Carl Sagan 420:Jefferson 331:MediaWiki 179:Lbeaumont 61:Archive 1 539:RoySmith 155:— jmcgnh 120:p-values 90:— jmcgnh 530:MOS:NEO 456:truzzi. 340:selfref 299:WP:SELF 39:archive 582:Andrew 439:truzzi 260:HAL333 471:dying 199:gette 196:-Jord 134:Gpc62 124:WP:OR 16:< 586:talk 572:talk 514:talk 499:talk 475:talk 430:talk 244:talk 183:talk 138:talk 584:🐉( 546:Pam 469:. 393:. — 375:333 368:HAL 312:333 305:HAL 588:) 574:) 541:. 516:) 501:) 477:) 432:) 401:• 397:• 354:• 350:• 343:}} 337:{{ 280:• 276:• 246:) 238:. 185:) 140:) 106:." 570:( 555:D 537:@ 512:( 497:( 473:( 428:( 403:c 399:t 356:c 352:t 346:— 295:: 291:@ 282:c 278:t 262:: 258:@ 242:( 181:( 136:( 126:. 112:. 50:.

Index

Talk:Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence
archive
current talk page
Archive 1
Knowledge:Articles for deletion/Sagan standard
Carl Sagan
extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence
— jmcgnh
07:29, 19 October 2017 (UTC)
extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence
Correlation does not imply causation
p-values
WP:OR
Gpc62
talk
15:57, 19 October 2017 (UTC)
— jmcgnh
16:59, 19 October 2017 (UTC)
https://arbital.com/p/bayes_extraordinary_claims
Lbeaumont
talk
13:28, 29 October 2020 (UTC)
-Jordgette

22:41, 29 October 2020 (UTC)
https://www.si.com/more-sports/2012/10/22/david-walsh-lance-armstrong
73.89.25.252
talk
19:21, 7 December 2020 (UTC)
HAL333

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