307:; the results of one stage are used to create the next stage. Exponential growth is deceptive, nearly flat at first until it hits what Kurzweil calls "the knee in the curve" then rises almost vertically. In fact Kurzweil believes evolutionary progress is super-exponential because more resources are deployed to the winning process. As an example of super-exponential growth Kurzweil cites the computer chip business. The overall budget for the whole industry increases over time, since the fruits of exponential growth make it an attractive investment; meanwhile the additional budget fuels more innovation which makes the industry grow even faster, effectively an example of "double" exponential growth.
523:
450:
471:
second and 10 bits of memory, but then explains uploading requires additional detail, perhaps as many as 10 cps and 10 bits. Kurzweil says the technology to do this will be available by 2040. Rather than an instantaneous scan and conversion to digital form, Kurzweil feels humans will most likely experience gradual conversion as portions of their brain are augmented with neural implants, increasing their proportion of non-biological intelligence slowly over time.
381:
571:, however he still makes many specific predictions. Kurzweil writes that by 2010 a supercomputer will have the computational capacity to emulate human intelligence and "by around 2020" this same capacity will be available "for one thousand dollars". After that milestone he expects human brain scanning to contribute to an effective model of human intelligence "by the mid-2020s". These two elements will culminate in computers that can pass the
435:
writes that $ 1,000 will buy computer power equal to a single brain "by around 2020" while by 2045, the onset of the singularity, he says the same amount of money will buy one billion times more power than all human brains combined today. Kurzweil admits the exponential trend in increased computing power will hit a limit eventually, but he calculates that limit to be trillions of times beyond what is necessary for the singularity.
371:
255:. Once the singularity has been reached, Kurzweil says that machine intelligence will be infinitely more powerful than all human intelligence combined. The singularity is also the point at which machines' intelligence and humans would merge; Kurzweil predicts this date: "I set the date for the Singularity—representing a profound and disruptive transformation in human capability—as 2045".
406:
by his law of accelerating returns. Kurzweil describes four paradigms of computing that came before integrated circuits: electromechanical, relay, vacuum tube, and transistors. What technology will follow integrated circuits, to serve as the sixth paradigm, is unknown, but
Kurzweil believes nanotubes are the most likely alternative among a number of possibilities:
508:
dangerous pathogens, and creating limited moratoriums on certain technologies. As for artificial intelligence
Kurzweil feels the best defense is to increase the "values of liberty, tolerance, and respect for knowledge and diversity" in society, because "the nonbiological intelligence will be embedded in our society and will reflect our values".
555:
beauty, greater creativity, and greater levels of subtle attributes such as love". He says that these attributes, in the limit, are generally used to describe God. That means, he continues, that evolution is moving towards a conception of God and that the transition away from biological roots is in fact a spiritual undertaking.
608:
is a better fit for "a real growth process". The logistic function looks like an exponential at first but then tapers off and flattens completely. For example, world population and the United States's oil production both appeared to be rising exponentially, but both have leveled off because they were
648:
writes that "Kurzweil is conflating biological data collection with biological insight". He feels that data collection might be growing exponentially, but insight is increasing only linearly. For example, the speed and cost of sequencing genomes is also improving exponentially, but our understanding
554:
As for individual identities during these radical changes, Kurzweil suggests people think of themselves as an evolving pattern rather than a specific collection of molecules. Kurzweil says evolution moves towards "greater complexity, greater elegance, greater knowledge, greater intelligence, greater
550:
Kurzweil says the law of accelerating returns suggests that once a civilization develops primitive mechanical technologies, it is only a few centuries before they achieve everything outlined in the book, at which point it will start expanding outward, saturating the universe with intelligence. Since
546:
Kurzweil claims once nonbiological intelligence predominates the nature of human life will be radically altered: there will be radical changes in how humans learn, work, play, and wage war. Kurzweil envisions nanobots which allow people to eat whatever they want while remaining thin and fit, provide
503:
and other illnesses. Much of this will be possible thanks to nanotechnology, the second revolution, which entails the molecule by molecule construction of tools which themselves can "rebuild the physical world". Finally, the revolution in robotics will really be the development of strong AI, defined
470:
Beyond reverse engineering the brain in order to understand and emulate it, Kurzweil introduces the idea of "uploading" a specific brain with every mental process intact, to be instantiated on a "suitably powerful computational substrate". He writes that general modeling requires 10 calculations per
405:
predicts the capacity of integrated circuits grows exponentially, but not indefinitely. Kurzweil feels the increase in the capacity of integrated circuits will probably slow by the year 2020. He feels confident that a new paradigm will debut at that point to carry on the exponential growth predicted
310:
Kurzweil dictates evolutionary progress looks smooth, but that really it is divided into paradigms, specific methods of solving problems. Each paradigm starts with slow growth, builds to rapid growth, and then levels off. As one paradigm levels off, pressure builds to find or develop a new paradigm.
40:
474:
Kurzweil believes there is "no objective test that can conclusively determine" the presence of consciousness. Therefore, he says nonbiological intelligences will claim to have consciousness and "the full range of emotional and spiritual experiences that humans claim to have"; he feels such claims
434:
will continue to grow exponentially long after Moore's Law ends it will eventually rival the raw computing power of the human brain. Kurzweil looks at several different estimates of how much computational capacity is in the brain and settles on 10 calculations per second and 10 bits of memory. He
466:
are increasing exponentially in resolution while he predicts even greater detail will be obtained during the 2020s when it becomes possible to scan the brain from the inside using nanobots. Once the physical structure and connectivity information are known, Kurzweil says researchers will have to
542:
During the singularity, Kurzweil predicts that "human life will be irreversibly transformed" and that humans will transcend the "limitations of our biological bodies and brain". He looks beyond the singularity to say that "the intelligence that will emerge will continue to represent the human
507:
Kurzweil concedes that every technology carries with it the risk of misuse or abuse, from viruses and nanobots to out-of-control AI machines. He believes the only countermeasure is to invest in defensive technologies, for example by allowing new genetics and medical treatments, monitoring for
457:
Kurzweil notes that computational capacity alone will not create artificial intelligence. He asserts that the best way to build machine intelligence is to first understand human intelligence. The first step is to image the brain, to peer inside it. Kurzweil claims imaging technologies such as
575:
by 2029. By the early 2030s the amount of non-biological computation will exceed the "capacity of all living biological human intelligence". Finally the exponential growth in computing capacity will lead to the singularity. Kurzweil spells out the date very clearly: "I set the date for the
612:
While some critics complain that the law of accelerating returns is not a law of nature others question the religious motivations or implications of
Kurzweil's singularity. The buildup towards the singularity is compared with Judeo-Christian end-of-time scenarios. Beam calls it "a
467:
produce functional models of sub-cellular components and synapses all the way up to whole brain regions. The human brain is "a complex hierarchy of complex systems, but it does not represent a level of complexity beyond what we are already capable of handling".
609:
logistic. Kurzweil says "the knee in the curve" is the time when the exponential trend is going to explode, while Modis claims if the process is logistic when you hit the "knee" the quantity you are measuring is only going to increase by a factor of 100 more.
682:
wrote "Kurzweil's book is surprisingly elaborate, smart, and persuasive. He writes clean methodical sentences, includes humorous dialogues with characters in the future and past, and uses graphs that are almost always accessible." while his colleague
597:
writes "the key point about exponential growth is that it never lasts" often due to resource constraints. On the other hand, it has been shown that the global acceleration until recently followed a hyperbolic rather than exponential pattern.
649:
of genetics is growing very slowly. As for nanobots Linden believes the spaces available in the brain for navigation are simply too small. He acknowledges that someday we will fully understand the brain, just not on
Kurzweil's timetable.
551:
people have found no evidence of other civilizations, Kurzweil believes humans are likely alone in the universe. Thus
Kurzweil concludes it is humanity's destiny to do the saturating, enlisting all matter and energy in the process.
628:
says that before you "dismiss it as techno-zeal" consider that "every day the line between what is human and what is not quite human blurs a bit more". He lists technology of the day, in 2006, like computers that land
547:
copious energy, fight off infections or cancer, replace organs and augment their brains. Eventually people's bodies will contain so much augmentation they'll be able to alter their "physical manifestation at will".
538:
in the 1960s. He compares his singularity to that of a mathematical or astrophysical singularity. While his ideas of a singularity is not actually infinite, he says it looks that way from any limited perspective.
400:
A fundamental pillar of
Kurzweil's argument is that to get to the singularity, computational capacity is as much of a bottleneck as other things like quality of algorithms and understanding of the human brain.
670:
is a "breathless romp across the outer reaches of technological possibility" while warning that the "exhilarating speculation is great fun to read, but needs to be taken with a huge dose of salt."
1867:
504:
as machines which have human-level intelligence or greater. This development will be the most important of the century, "comparable in importance to the development of biology itself".
495:
will usher in the beginning of the singularity. Kurzweil feels with sufficient genetic technology it should be possible to maintain the body indefinitely, reversing aging while curing
593:. Extrapolating exponential growth from there one would expect huge lunar bases and crewed missions to distant planets. Instead, exploration stalled or even regressed after that.
701:
is startling in scope and bravado", but says "much of his thinking tends to be pie in the sky". She observes that he's more focused on optimistic outcomes rather than the risks.
1795:
272:
throughout all time as progressing through six epochs, each one building on the one before. He says the four epochs which have occurred so far are
326:
Kurzweil calls this exponential growth the law of accelerating returns, and he believes it applies to many human-created technologies such as
1735:
1728:
463:
104:
1769:
410:
nanotubes and nanotube circuitry, molecular computing, self-assembly in nanotube circuits, biological systems emulating circuit assembly,
362:. Kurzweil claims the whole world economy is in fact growing exponentially, although short term booms and busts tend to hide this trend.
1862:
444:
1583:
1482:
863:
354:, decrease in device size, and nanotech citations and patents. Kurzweil cites two historical examples of exponential growth: the
39:
1842:
735:
208:
1837:
621:
says "the
Singularity echoes apocalyptic myths in which history is about to be interrupted by a world-transforming event".
1554:
214:
153:
1857:
459:
126:
755:
734:
mixes documentary interviews with a science-fiction story involving his robotic avatar Ramona's transformation into an
1852:
1814:
231:
747:
1847:
1528:
831:
751:
517:
219:
199:
171:
743:
431:
347:
252:
187:
389:
634:
739:
811:
758:
in 2011, the movie was released generally on July 20, 2012. It is available on DVD or digital download.
543:
civilization." Further, he feels that "future machines will be human, even if they are not biological".
522:
1405:
355:
300:
166:
589:
A common criticism of the book relates to the "exponential growth fallacy". As an example, in 1969,
449:
630:
1423:
826:
767:
693:
576:
Singularity—representing a profound and disruptive transformation in human capability—as 2045".
380:
1809:
1724:
821:
605:
423:
419:
304:
111:
99:
1494:
1461:
1413:
836:
727:
719:
678:
662:
531:
351:
343:
312:
137:
1390:
645:
563:
Kurzweil does not include an actual written timeline of the past and future, as he did in
359:
327:
1409:
1632:
1502:
816:
638:
601:
488:
402:
374:
339:
335:
244:
17:
1831:
1717:
841:
710:
673:
625:
500:
411:
1787:
1657:
1498:
1427:
688:
618:
385:
223:
194:
50:
657:
614:
594:
572:
415:
393:
316:
530:
Kurzweil touches on the history of the singularity concept, tracing it back to
1821:
1778:
1450:"The 21st Century Singularity and its Big History Implications: A re-analysis"
687:
points out that "Singularitarians have been greeted with hooting skepticism".
641:
that access the internet or robots in our blood really are that unbelievable.
535:
331:
320:
1742:
1609:
726:
Kurzweil also directed his own film adaptation, produced in partnership with
717:
from
Kurzweil. Inspired by the book, Ptolemy directed and produced the film
684:
590:
370:
269:
1466:
1449:
492:
484:
248:
240:
236:
191:
118:
1803:
713:
and his production company
Ptolemaic Productions licensed the rights to
288:. Kurzweil predicts the singularity will coincide with the next epoch,
206:
The book builds on the ideas introduced in
Kurzweil's previous books,
604:
says "nothing in nature follows a pure exponential" and suggests the
496:
311:
So what looks like a single smooth curve is really series of smaller
1418:
1693:
864:"Ray Kurzweil: AI Is Not Going to Kill You, But Ignoring It Might"
521:
448:
369:
624:
The radical nature of Kurzweil's predictions is often discussed.
1679:
794:
Turkish: İnsanlık 2.0: Tekilliğe Doğru Biyolojisini Aşan İnsan
235:, which predicts an exponential increase in technologies like
1764:
323:
became popular and continued the overall exponential growth.
112:
292:. After the singularity he says the final epoch will occur,
644:
In regard to reverse engineering the brain, neuroscientist
384:
An updated version of Moore's Law over 120 years (based on
1328:
1326:
1025:
1023:
226:
in his 1993 essay "The Coming Technological Singularity."
138:
1343:
1341:
897:
895:
893:
962:
960:
958:
33:
The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology
290:
The Merger of Human Technology with Human Intelligence
183:
The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology
1797:
Brain Chips and Other Dreams of the Cyber-Evangelists
723:, which went on to bring more attention to the book.
161:
148:
136:
124:
110:
98:
90:
82:
72:
64:
56:
46:
1716:
1610:"The Singularity is Far: A Neruoscientist's View"
218:(1999). In the book, Kurzweil embraces the term "
1822:Ray Kurzweil: The Coming Singularity - Big Think
299:Kurzweil explains that evolutionary progress is
1868:Non-fiction books about Artificial intelligence
1816:IEEE Spectrum special report on the Singularity
617:vision of the hypothetical Christian Rapture".
1765:Singularity.com, official website for the book
1633:"Will the Future Be a Trillion Times Better?"
1487:Technological Forecasting & Social Change
791:German: Menschheit 2.0. Die Singularität naht
8:
32:
1658:"Release dates for The Singularity Is Near"
190:and the future of humanity by inventor and
479:Genetics, nanotechnology and robotics (AI)
38:
31:
1465:
1417:
1384:
1382:
1380:
392:). The 7 most recent data points are all
1577:
1575:
1371:
1359:
1347:
1332:
1317:
1305:
1293:
1281:
1269:
1257:
1245:
1233:
1221:
1209:
1197:
1185:
1173:
1161:
1149:
1137:
1125:
1113:
1101:
1089:
1077:
1065:
1053:
1041:
1029:
1014:
1002:
990:
978:
966:
949:
937:
925:
913:
901:
418:(computing with the spin of electrons),
379:
315:. For example, Kurzweil notes that when
1522:
1520:
854:
800:Hebrew: Kineret הסינגולריות מתקרבת 2012
884:
27:2005 non-fiction book by Ray Kurzweil
7:
1773:Magazine interview with Ray Kurzweil
1680:"The Singularity Is Near, The Movie"
1584:"Which Way Will Technology Take Us?"
788:Spanish: La Singularidad está cerca
779:Hungarian: A szingularitás küszöbén
25:
1743:"Vernor Vinge on the Singularity"
1582:Doerr, Anthony (2 October 2005).
862:Dreibelbis, Emily (3 June 2024).
756:San Francisco Indie Film Festival
445:Neural network (machine learning)
203:, was released on June 25, 2024.
186:is a 2005 non-fiction book about
1631:Maslin, Janet (3 October 2005).
782:Italian: La singolarità è vicina
773:Dutch: De singulariteit is nabij
319:stopped getting faster, cheaper
1791:review by Glenn Harlan Reynolds
1781:The Singularity of Ray Kurzweil
1553:Gray, John (24 November 2011).
1527:Beam, Alex (24 February 2005).
736:artificial general intelligence
565:The Age of Intelligent Machines
453:Exponential growth of computing
209:The Age of Intelligent Machines
1608:Linden, David (14 July 2011).
1499:10.1016/j.techfore.2005.12.004
1389:Davies, Paul (23 March 2006).
1:
748:Warsaw International FilmFest
635:in vitro fertility treatments
569:The Age of Spiritual Machines
483:Kurzweil says revolutions in
215:The Age of Spiritual Machines
154:The Age of Spiritual Machines
1745:. San Diego State University
1559:The New York Review of Books
1555:"On the Road to Immortality"
1529:"That Singularity Sensation"
797:Polish: Nadchodzi Osobliwość
526:Countdown to the singularity
475:will generally be accepted.
348:the number of Internet hosts
222:", which was popularized by
770:. Translator: Zhenhua Dong.
232:Law of Accelerating Returns
1884:
1723:. New York: Viking Books.
1448:Korotayev, Andrey (2018).
1391:"When computers take over"
515:
442:
832:Technological singularity
752:San Antonio Film Festival
591:humans landed on the moon
518:Technological singularity
200:The Singularity Is Nearer
172:The Singularity is Nearer
37:
1863:Futurology documentaries
1481:Modis, Theodore (2006).
430:Since Kurzweil believes
1805:The Singularity Is Near
1719:The Singularity is Near
744:Woodstock Film Festival
732:The Singularity is Near
715:The Singularity Is Near
699:The Singularity is Near
668:The Singularity is Near
268:Kurzweil characterizes
253:artificial intelligence
229:Kurzweil describes his
188:artificial intelligence
18:The Singularity is Near
1843:2005 non-fiction books
1741:Vinge, Vernor (1993).
1715:Kurzweil, Ray (2005).
1483:"The Singularity Myth"
1467:10.22339/jbh.v2i3.2320
1454:Journal of Big History
776:French: L'humanité 2.0
527:
454:
432:computational capacity
428:
397:
377:
366:Computational capacity
360:growth of the Internet
1838:Books by Ray Kurzweil
812:Limits to computation
525:
452:
408:
383:
373:
294:The Universe Wakes Up
274:Physics and Chemistry
1775:- Link down, 5/11/15
631:supersonic airplanes
420:computing with light
356:Human Genome Project
167:How to Create a Mind
1858:Transhumanist books
1789:Wall Street Journal
1696:Singularity Is Near
1410:2006Natur.440..421D
1296:, pp. 301–310.
1284:, pp. 331–341.
1212:, pp. 422–424.
1176:, pp. 226–227.
1164:, pp. 212–219.
1104:, pp. 199–200.
1080:, pp. 167–181.
1068:, pp. 163–167.
1056:, pp. 160–161.
1017:, pp. 112–113.
740:World Film Festival
34:
1853:Singularitarianism
1637:The New York Times
1505:on 30 October 2012
827:Singularitarianism
738:. Screened at the
694:The New York Times
528:
455:
412:computing with DNA
398:
378:
264:Exponential growth
1730:978-0-670-03384-3
1404:(7083): 421–422.
981:, pp. 56–84.
952:, pp. 43–44.
940:, pp. 40–41.
822:Simulated reality
637:and asks whether
606:logistic function
534:in the 1950s and
424:quantum computing
305:positive feedback
197:. A sequel book,
179:
178:
105:978-0-670-03384-3
83:Publication place
16:(Redirected from
1875:
1848:Futurology books
1754:
1752:
1750:
1734:
1722:
1702:
1701:
1690:
1684:
1683:
1676:
1670:
1669:
1667:
1665:
1654:
1648:
1647:
1645:
1643:
1628:
1622:
1621:
1619:
1617:
1605:
1599:
1598:
1596:
1594:
1588:The Boston Globe
1579:
1570:
1569:
1567:
1565:
1550:
1544:
1543:
1541:
1539:
1533:The Boston Globe
1524:
1515:
1514:
1512:
1510:
1501:. Archived from
1478:
1472:
1471:
1469:
1445:
1439:
1438:
1436:
1434:
1421:
1395:
1386:
1375:
1369:
1363:
1357:
1351:
1345:
1336:
1330:
1321:
1315:
1309:
1303:
1297:
1291:
1285:
1279:
1273:
1267:
1261:
1255:
1249:
1243:
1237:
1231:
1225:
1219:
1213:
1207:
1201:
1195:
1189:
1183:
1177:
1171:
1165:
1159:
1153:
1147:
1141:
1135:
1129:
1123:
1117:
1111:
1105:
1099:
1093:
1087:
1081:
1075:
1069:
1063:
1057:
1051:
1045:
1039:
1033:
1027:
1018:
1012:
1006:
1000:
994:
988:
982:
976:
970:
964:
953:
947:
941:
935:
929:
923:
917:
911:
905:
899:
888:
882:
876:
875:
873:
871:
859:
837:Transcendent Man
754:in 2010 and the
720:Transcendent Man
705:Film adaptations
679:The Boston Globe
532:John von Neumann
352:Internet traffic
344:magnetic storage
162:Followed by
149:Preceded by
140:
114:
74:Publication date
42:
35:
21:
1883:
1882:
1878:
1877:
1876:
1874:
1873:
1872:
1828:
1827:
1761:
1748:
1746:
1740:
1731:
1714:
1711:
1706:
1705:
1692:
1691:
1687:
1678:
1677:
1673:
1663:
1661:
1656:
1655:
1651:
1641:
1639:
1630:
1629:
1625:
1615:
1613:
1607:
1606:
1602:
1592:
1590:
1581:
1580:
1573:
1563:
1561:
1552:
1551:
1547:
1537:
1535:
1526:
1525:
1518:
1508:
1506:
1480:
1479:
1475:
1447:
1446:
1442:
1432:
1430:
1419:10.1038/440421a
1393:
1388:
1387:
1378:
1370:
1366:
1358:
1354:
1346:
1339:
1331:
1324:
1316:
1312:
1304:
1300:
1292:
1288:
1280:
1276:
1268:
1264:
1256:
1252:
1244:
1240:
1232:
1228:
1220:
1216:
1208:
1204:
1196:
1192:
1184:
1180:
1172:
1168:
1160:
1156:
1148:
1144:
1136:
1132:
1124:
1120:
1116:, pp. 201.
1112:
1108:
1100:
1096:
1088:
1084:
1076:
1072:
1064:
1060:
1052:
1048:
1040:
1036:
1028:
1021:
1013:
1009:
1001:
997:
989:
985:
977:
973:
965:
956:
948:
944:
936:
932:
924:
920:
912:
908:
900:
891:
883:
879:
869:
867:
861:
860:
856:
851:
846:
807:
785:Korean: 특이점이 온다
764:
707:
655:
646:David J. Linden
587:
582:
561:
520:
514:
512:The singularity
481:
447:
441:
368:
336:microprocessors
328:computer memory
278:Biology and DNA
266:
261:
220:the singularity
170:
129:
75:
28:
23:
22:
15:
12:
11:
5:
1881:
1879:
1871:
1870:
1865:
1860:
1855:
1850:
1845:
1840:
1830:
1829:
1826:
1825:
1819:
1812:
1801:
1799:by John Horgan
1793:
1785:
1776:
1767:
1760:
1759:External links
1757:
1756:
1755:
1738:
1729:
1710:
1707:
1704:
1703:
1698:movie trailer"
1685:
1671:
1649:
1623:
1600:
1571:
1545:
1516:
1493:(2): 104–112.
1473:
1440:
1376:
1374:, p. 135.
1364:
1362:, p. 200.
1352:
1337:
1335:, p. 389.
1322:
1320:, p. 365.
1310:
1308:, p. 344.
1298:
1286:
1274:
1272:, p. 299.
1262:
1250:
1238:
1226:
1214:
1202:
1200:, p. 296.
1190:
1188:, p. 260.
1178:
1166:
1154:
1152:, p. 205.
1142:
1140:, p. 377.
1130:
1128:, p. 378.
1118:
1106:
1094:
1092:, p. 145.
1082:
1070:
1058:
1046:
1044:, p. 134.
1034:
1032:, p. 126.
1019:
1007:
995:
983:
971:
954:
942:
930:
918:
906:
904:, p. 136.
889:
877:
853:
852:
850:
847:
845:
844:
839:
834:
829:
824:
819:
817:Paradigm shift
814:
808:
806:
803:
802:
801:
798:
795:
792:
789:
786:
783:
780:
777:
774:
771:
763:
760:
706:
703:
654:
651:
639:brain implants
602:Theodore Modis
586:
583:
581:
578:
560:
557:
516:Main article:
513:
510:
489:nanotechnology
480:
477:
440:
437:
367:
364:
340:DNA sequencing
265:
262:
260:
257:
245:nanotechnology
177:
176:
174:(sequel)
163:
159:
158:
150:
146:
145:
142:
134:
133:
130:
125:
122:
121:
116:
108:
107:
102:
96:
95:
92:
88:
87:
84:
80:
79:
78:September 2005
76:
73:
70:
69:
66:
62:
61:
58:
54:
53:
48:
44:
43:
26:
24:
14:
13:
10:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
1880:
1869:
1866:
1864:
1861:
1859:
1856:
1854:
1851:
1849:
1846:
1844:
1841:
1839:
1836:
1835:
1833:
1823:
1820:
1818:
1817:
1813:
1811:
1807:
1806:
1802:
1800:
1798:
1794:
1792:
1790:
1786:
1784:
1782:
1779:Documentary-
1777:
1774:
1772:
1768:
1766:
1763:
1762:
1758:
1744:
1739:
1737:
1732:
1726:
1721:
1720:
1713:
1712:
1708:
1699:
1697:
1689:
1686:
1681:
1675:
1672:
1659:
1653:
1650:
1638:
1634:
1627:
1624:
1612:. Boing Boing
1611:
1604:
1601:
1589:
1585:
1578:
1576:
1572:
1560:
1556:
1549:
1546:
1534:
1530:
1523:
1521:
1517:
1504:
1500:
1496:
1492:
1488:
1484:
1477:
1474:
1468:
1463:
1460:(3): 71–118.
1459:
1455:
1451:
1444:
1441:
1429:
1425:
1420:
1415:
1411:
1407:
1403:
1399:
1392:
1385:
1383:
1381:
1377:
1373:
1372:Kurzweil 2005
1368:
1365:
1361:
1360:Kurzweil 2005
1356:
1353:
1350:, p. 25.
1349:
1348:Kurzweil 2005
1344:
1342:
1338:
1334:
1333:Kurzweil 2005
1329:
1327:
1323:
1319:
1318:Kurzweil 2005
1314:
1311:
1307:
1306:Kurzweil 2005
1302:
1299:
1295:
1294:Kurzweil 2005
1290:
1287:
1283:
1282:Kurzweil 2005
1278:
1275:
1271:
1270:Kurzweil 2005
1266:
1263:
1260:, p. 30.
1259:
1258:Kurzweil 2005
1254:
1251:
1247:
1246:Kurzweil 2005
1242:
1239:
1235:
1234:Kurzweil 2005
1230:
1227:
1224:, p. 23.
1223:
1222:Kurzweil 2005
1218:
1215:
1211:
1210:Kurzweil 2005
1206:
1203:
1199:
1198:Kurzweil 2005
1194:
1191:
1187:
1186:Kurzweil 2005
1182:
1179:
1175:
1174:Kurzweil 2005
1170:
1167:
1163:
1162:Kurzweil 2005
1158:
1155:
1151:
1150:Kurzweil 2005
1146:
1143:
1139:
1138:Kurzweil 2005
1134:
1131:
1127:
1126:Kurzweil 2005
1122:
1119:
1115:
1114:Kurzweil 2005
1110:
1107:
1103:
1102:Kurzweil 2005
1098:
1095:
1091:
1090:Kurzweil 2005
1086:
1083:
1079:
1078:Kurzweil 2005
1074:
1071:
1067:
1066:Kurzweil 2005
1062:
1059:
1055:
1054:Kurzweil 2005
1050:
1047:
1043:
1042:Kurzweil 2005
1038:
1035:
1031:
1030:Kurzweil 2005
1026:
1024:
1020:
1016:
1015:Kurzweil 2005
1011:
1008:
1005:, p. 97.
1004:
1003:Kurzweil 2005
999:
996:
993:, p. 12.
992:
991:Kurzweil 2005
987:
984:
980:
979:Kurzweil 2005
975:
972:
969:, p. 67.
968:
967:Kurzweil 2005
963:
961:
959:
955:
951:
950:Kurzweil 2005
946:
943:
939:
938:Kurzweil 2005
934:
931:
928:, p. 10.
927:
926:Kurzweil 2005
922:
919:
916:, p. 15.
915:
914:Kurzweil 2005
910:
907:
903:
902:Kurzweil 2005
898:
896:
894:
890:
886:
881:
878:
865:
858:
855:
848:
843:
842:Transhumanism
840:
838:
835:
833:
830:
828:
825:
823:
820:
818:
815:
813:
810:
809:
804:
799:
796:
793:
790:
787:
784:
781:
778:
775:
772:
769:
766:
765:
761:
759:
757:
753:
749:
745:
741:
737:
733:
729:
724:
722:
721:
716:
712:
711:Barry Ptolemy
704:
702:
700:
696:
695:
690:
686:
681:
680:
675:
674:Anthony Doerr
671:
669:
665:
664:
659:
652:
650:
647:
642:
640:
636:
632:
627:
626:Anthony Doerr
622:
620:
616:
610:
607:
603:
599:
596:
592:
584:
579:
577:
574:
570:
566:
558:
556:
552:
548:
544:
540:
537:
533:
524:
519:
511:
509:
505:
502:
501:heart disease
498:
494:
490:
486:
478:
476:
472:
468:
465:
461:
451:
446:
438:
436:
433:
427:
425:
421:
417:
413:
407:
404:
395:
391:
387:
382:
376:
372:
365:
363:
361:
357:
353:
349:
345:
341:
337:
333:
329:
324:
322:
318:
314:
308:
306:
302:
297:
295:
291:
287:
283:
279:
275:
271:
263:
258:
256:
254:
250:
246:
242:
238:
234:
233:
227:
225:
221:
217:
216:
211:
210:
204:
202:
201:
196:
193:
189:
185:
184:
175:
173:
168:
164:
160:
157:
155:
151:
147:
143:
141:
139:LC Class
135:
131:
128:
127:Dewey Decimal
123:
120:
117:
115:
109:
106:
103:
101:
97:
93:
89:
86:United States
85:
81:
77:
71:
67:
63:
59:
55:
52:
49:
45:
41:
36:
30:
19:
1815:
1804:
1796:
1788:
1780:
1770:
1747:. Retrieved
1718:
1695:
1688:
1674:
1662:. Retrieved
1652:
1640:. Retrieved
1636:
1626:
1614:. Retrieved
1603:
1591:. Retrieved
1587:
1562:. Retrieved
1558:
1548:
1536:. Retrieved
1532:
1507:. Retrieved
1503:the original
1490:
1486:
1476:
1457:
1453:
1443:
1431:. Retrieved
1401:
1397:
1367:
1355:
1313:
1301:
1289:
1277:
1265:
1253:
1248:, p. 9.
1241:
1236:, p. 7.
1229:
1217:
1205:
1193:
1181:
1169:
1157:
1145:
1133:
1121:
1109:
1097:
1085:
1073:
1061:
1049:
1037:
1010:
998:
986:
974:
945:
933:
921:
909:
880:
868:. Retrieved
857:
762:Translations
731:
725:
718:
714:
708:
698:
692:
689:Janet Maslin
677:
672:
667:
661:
656:
643:
623:
611:
600:
588:
568:
564:
562:
553:
549:
545:
541:
529:
506:
482:
473:
469:
456:
429:
409:
399:
325:
317:vacuum tubes
309:
298:
293:
289:
285:
281:
277:
273:
267:
230:
228:
224:Vernor Vinge
213:
207:
205:
198:
195:Ray Kurzweil
182:
181:
180:
165:
152:
51:Ray Kurzweil
29:
1664:14 February
1642:19 February
1616:19 February
1593:15 February
1538:15 February
1509:13 February
1433:15 February
658:Paul Davies
615:Buck Rogers
595:Paul Davies
573:Turing test
559:Predictions
416:spintronics
403:Moore's Law
394:Nvidia GPUs
375:Moore's Law
332:transistors
321:transistors
303:because of
301:exponential
212:(1990) and
169:(next book)
1832:Categories
1783:on YouTube
885:Vinge 1993
849:References
536:I. J. Good
443:See also:
286:Technology
144:QP376 .K85
709:In 2006,
685:Alex Beam
660:wrote in
619:John Gray
580:Reception
439:The brain
270:evolution
237:computers
65:Publisher
1749:11 April
1564:19 March
805:See also
585:Analysis
493:robotics
485:genetics
386:Kurzweil
358:and the
313:S curves
249:robotics
241:genetics
192:futurist
119:57201348
57:Language
1824:YouTube
1709:Sources
1428:4319656
1406:Bibcode
866:. PCMag
728:Terasem
697:wrote "
653:Reviews
259:Content
60:English
1727:
1660:. IMDB
1426:
1398:Nature
870:4 June
750:, the
746:, the
742:, the
663:Nature
497:cancer
422:, and
284:, and
282:Brains
156:
68:Viking
47:Author
1424:S2CID
1394:(PDF)
666:that
390:graph
132:153.9
91:Pages
1810:IMDb
1771:Vice
1751:2013
1725:ISBN
1666:2013
1644:2013
1618:2013
1595:2013
1566:2013
1540:2013
1511:2013
1435:2013
872:2024
768:奇点迫近
567:and
491:and
464:fMRI
462:and
251:and
113:OCLC
100:ISBN
1808:at
1736:PDF
1495:doi
1462:doi
1414:doi
1402:440
691:in
676:in
633:or
460:PET
388:'s
94:652
1834::
1635:.
1586:.
1574:^
1557:.
1531:.
1519:^
1491:73
1489:.
1485:.
1456:.
1452:.
1422:.
1412:.
1400:.
1396:.
1379:^
1340:^
1325:^
1022:^
957:^
892:^
730:;
499:,
487:,
414:,
350:,
346:,
342:,
338:,
334:,
330:,
296:.
280:,
276:,
247:,
243:,
239:,
1753:.
1733:.
1700:.
1694:"
1682:.
1668:.
1646:.
1620:.
1597:.
1568:.
1542:.
1513:.
1497::
1470:.
1464::
1458:2
1437:.
1416::
1408::
887:.
874:.
426:.
396:.
20:)
Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License. Additional terms may apply.
