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Across the nine general elections from 1992 to 2024, the site correctly predicted the party to win the most seats in all but one (1992). They also correctly predicted the outcome, that is, the party winning a majority or a hung parliament, in six elections (majorities in 1997, 2001, 2005, 2019, 2024;
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Since 2019, they have used MRP (Multi-Level
Regression and Post-Stratification) methods to make their election predictions. Their model uses demographic, past voting behaviour and geographic data to estimate predicted vote shares on a seat-by-seat basis. The models are explained in detail on the web
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An independent UK election prediction site maintained by Martin Baxter. He attempts to apply scientific techniques to the electoral geography of
Britain to predict the future general election results.
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The different formulas used by
Electoral Calculus and Swingo both translate a six-point Tory poll lead into a Commons in which the Conservatives are short of a majority.
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The election predictions are based around the employment of scientific techniques on data about the United
Kingdom's electoral geography. Up to 2017, it used a modified
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How is
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results. It uses MRP (Multi-level
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Electoral
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as one of the "100 most useful websites", being "the best" for predictions. With reference to the
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School of
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is a political consultancy and pollster, known for its
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400:"Scottish Government and Politics on the Internet"
603:"Tony Blair's back. But it's too late for Labour"
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638:"John Rentoul: Clegg drives his voters away"
374:Centre for Research on Socio-Cultural Change
366:"Data mobilisation and the UK 2010 Election"
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316:referred to the site after the election.
247:Learn how and when to remove this message
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125:website that attempts to predict future
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183:Please improve this section by adding
698:Opinion polling in the United Kingdom
453:"Who predicted the result correctly?"
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292:2010 United Kingdom general election
514:Baxter, Martin (14 November 2020).
428:Baxter, Martin (28 October 2007).
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485:"MP's on course to lose his seat"
370:CReSC: The Social Life of Methods
364:Ruppert, Evelyn (16 April 2010).
284:In 2004, the site was listed by
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688:Elections in the United Kingdom
491:. 27 April 2012. Archived from
127:United Kingdom general election
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185:secondary or tertiary sources
16:British political consultancy
276:hung parliament for 2010).
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683:British political websites
451:Young, Toby (7 May 2010).
430:"Strong Transition Model"
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461:. London. Archived from
40:Private limited company
22:Electoral Calculus Ltd.
261:uniform national swing
172:relies excessively on
139:mathematical modelling
708:Mathematical modeling
516:"Regression Analysis"
143:elections in Scotland
123:political forecasting
566:(22 November 2009).
518:. Electoral Calculus
432:. Electoral Calculus
380:on 10 September 2011
337:"Electoral Calculus"
196:"Electoral Calculus"
58:Political Consulting
693:Electoral geography
636:(17 October 2010).
538:"Cream of the crop"
458:The Daily Telegraph
147:in Northern Ireland
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544:. 16 December 2004
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271:Predictions
153:Methodology
92:Area served
703:Psephology
677:Categories
615:17 October
580:17 October
436:17 October
413:6 February
346:17 October
320:References
207:newspapers
174:references
280:Reception
237:June 2024
611:. London
576:. London
72:Founders
46:Industry
522:22 July
221:scholar
101:Website
64:Founded
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469:25 May
384:28 May
341:Intute
267:site.
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84:London
228:JSTOR
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524:2024
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415:2014
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348:2011
298:and
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108:.co
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