625:. Having previously studied unreliable memories, the author was doubtful that life satisfaction was a good indicator of happiness. He designed a question that emphasized instead the well-being of the experiencing self. The author proposed that "Helen was happy in the month of March" if she spent most of her time engaged in activities that she would rather continue than stop, little time in situations that she wished to escape, and not too much time in a neutral state that wouldn't prefer continuing or stopping the activity either way.
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to 10% (going from impossibility to possibility) than from, say, 45% to 55%, and they place the greatest value of all on a change from 90% to 100% (going from possibility to certainty). This occurs despite the fact that by traditional utility theory all three changes give the same increase in utility. Consistent with loss-aversion, the order of the first and third of those is reversed when the event is presented as losing rather than winning something: there, the greatest value is placed on eliminating the probability of a loss to 0.
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consequences associated with an action is related positively to perceptions of the magnitude of the consequences of that action. In other words, the easier it is to recall the consequences of something, the greater we perceive these consequences to be. Sometimes, this heuristic is beneficial, but the frequencies at which events come to mind are usually not accurate representations of the probabilities of such events in real life.
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426:," subjects were told about an imaginary Linda, young, single, outspoken, and intelligent, who, as a student, was very concerned with discrimination and social justice. They asked whether it was more probable that Linda is a bank teller or that she is a bank teller and an active feminist. The overwhelming response was that "feminist bank teller" was more likely than "bank teller," violating the laws of
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a circle. As a legal metaphor, a judge limited to heuristic thinking would only be able to think of similar historical cases when presented with a new dispute, rather than considering the unique aspects of that case. In addition to offering an explanation for the statistical problem, the theory also offers an explanation for human biases.
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One example is that people are loss-averse: they are more likely to act to avert a loss than to achieve a gain. Another example is that the value people place on a change in probability (e.g., of winning something) depends on the reference point: people seem to place greater value on a change from 0%
378:
Kahneman uses heuristics to assert that System 1 thinking involves associating new information with existing patterns, or thoughts, rather than creating new patterns for each new experience. For example, a child who has only seen shapes with straight edges might perceive an octagon when first viewing
546:
In this section
Kahneman returns to economics and expands his seminal work on Prospect Theory. He discusses the tendency for problems to be addressed in isolation and how, when other reference points are considered, the choice of that reference point (called a frame) has a disproportionate effect on
533:
This part (part III, sections 19–24) of the book is dedicated to the undue confidence in what the mind believes it knows. It suggests that people often overestimate how much they understand about the world and underestimate the role of chance in particular. This is related to the excessive certainty
351:
Kahneman describes a number of experiments which purport to examine the differences between these two thought systems and how they arrive at different results even given the same inputs. Terms and concepts include coherence, attention, laziness, association, jumping to conclusions, WYSIATI (What you
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discusses concepts also touched in Daniel
Kahneman's book, Thinking, Fast and Slow, that suggest people make a series of rational and irrational decisions. He criticizes the argument that "regardless of reason's virtues, we just aren't any good at it." His point is that people are not as "stupid as
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The author's significant discovery was that the remembering self does not care about the duration of a pleasant or unpleasant experience. Instead, it retrospectively rates an experience by the maximum or minimum of the experience, and by the way it ends. The remembering self dominated the patient's
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He explains that humans fail to take into account complexity and that their understanding of the world consists of a small and necessarily un-representative set of observations. Furthermore, the mind generally does not account for the role of chance and therefore falsely assumes that a future event
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The fifth part of the book describes recent evidence which introduces a distinction between two selves, the 'experiencing self' and 'remembering self'. Kahneman proposed an alternative measure that assessed pleasure or pain sampled from moment to moment, and then summed over time. Kahneman termed
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facing psychology and the social sciences. It was discovered many prominent research findings were difficult or impossible for others to replicate, and thus the original findings were called into question. An analysis of the studies cited in chapter 4, "The
Associative Machine", found that their
370:
The second section offers explanations for why humans struggle to think statistically. It begins by documenting a variety of situations in which we either arrive at binary decisions or fail to associate precisely reasonable probabilities with outcomes. Kahneman explains this phenomenon using the
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The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut that occurs when people make judgments about the probability of events on the basis of how easy it is to think of examples. The availability heuristic operates on the notion that, "if you can think of it, it must be important". The availability of
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Framing is the context in which choices are presented. Experiment: subjects were asked whether they would opt for surgery if the "survival" rate is 90 percent, while others were told that the mortality rate is 10 percent. The first framing increased acceptance, even though the situation was no
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A later analysis made a bolder claim that, despite
Kahneman's previous contributions to the field of decision making, most of the book's ideas are based on 'scientific literature with shaky foundations'. A general lack of replication in the empirical studies cited in the book was given as a
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was more than 114 years old when he died, will provide a much greater estimate of his age at death than others who were asked whether Gandhi was more or less than 35 years old. Experiments show that people's behavior is influenced, much more than they are aware, by irrelevant information.
518:
Rather than consider the odds that an incremental investment would produce a positive return, people tend to "throw good money after bad" and continue investing in projects with poor prospects that have already consumed significant resources. In part this is to avoid feelings of regret.
430:. (All feminist bank tellers are bank tellers, so the former can't be more likely). In this case System 1 substituted the easier question, "Is Linda a feminist?", neglecting the occupation qualifier. An alternative interpretation is that the subjects added an unstated cultural
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to people's tendency to replace a difficult question with one which is easy to answer, the book summarizes several decades of research to suggest that people have too much confidence in human judgment. Kahneman performed his own research, often in collaboration with
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scholars think they are." He explains that people are rational because they make thoughtful decisions in their everyday lives. For example, when someone has to make a big life decision they critically assess the outcomes, consequences, and alternative options.
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and baseball executives. The ways of thinking described in the book are believed to help scouts, who have to make major judgements off little information and can easily fall into prescriptive yet inaccurate patterns of analysis.
639:
Kahneman suggests that emphasizing a life event such as a marriage or a new car can provide a distorted illusion of its true value. This "focusing illusion" revisits earlier ideas of substituting difficult questions and WYSIATI.
352:
see is all there is), and how one forms judgments. The System 1 vs. System 2 debate includes the reasoning or lack thereof for human decision making, with big implications for many areas including law and market research.
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this "experienced" well-being and attached it to a separate "self." He distinguished this from the "remembered" well-being that the polls had attempted to measure. He found that these two measures of happiness diverged.
461:
is the tendency to overestimate benefits and underestimate costs, impelling people to begin risky projects. In 2002, American kitchen remodeling was expected on average to cost $ 18,658, but actually cost $ 38,769.
393:
The "anchoring effect" names a tendency to be influenced by irrelevant numbers. Shown greater/lesser numbers, experimental subjects gave greater/lesser responses. As an example, most people, when asked whether
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201:
The book delineates rational and non-rational motivations or triggers associated with each type of thinking process, and how they complement each other, starting with
Kahneman's own research on
935:(R-index) is 14, indicating essentially low to no reliability. Kahneman himself responded to the study in blog comments and acknowledged the chapter's shortcomings: "I placed too much faith in
1718:
1136:"Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow Wins Best Book Award From Academies; Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Slate Magazine, and WGBH/NOVA Also Take Top Prizes in Awards' 10th Year"
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569:. According to Kahneman, Utility Theory makes logical assumptions of economic rationality that do not represent people's actual choices, and does not take into account
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422:
System 1 is prone to substituting a simpler question for a difficult one. In what
Kahneman terms their "best-known and most controversial" experiment, "the
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of hindsight, when an event seems to be understood after it has occurred or developed. Kahneman's opinions concerning overconfidence are influenced by
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published a discussion of its parts concerning prospect theory, as well as an analysis of the four fundamental factors on which it is based.
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608:"Odd as it may seem," Kahneman writes, "I am my remembering self, and the experiencing self, who does my living, is like a stranger to me."
481:, phenomena that it knows to be relevant but about which it does not have information. Finally it appears oblivious to the possibility of
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375:. Kahneman and Tversky originally discussed this topic in their 1974 article titled Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.
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778:(4.00 out of 5) with the critical summary stating, "Either way, it's an enlightening tome on how--fast or slow--we make decisions".
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Fast, automatic, frequent, emotional, stereotypic, unconscious. Examples (in order of complexity) of things system 1 can do:
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studies." Others have noted the irony in the fact that
Kahneman made a mistake in judgment similar to the ones he studied.
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214:, which enriched his experience to write the book. It covers different phases of his career: his early work concerning
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Tversky, Amos; Kahneman, Daniel (September 1973). "Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability".
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Kahneman developed prospect theory, the basis for his Nobel prize, to account for experimental errors he noticed in
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the outcome. This section also offers advice on how some of the shortcomings of System 1 thinking can be avoided.
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746:, the book received a "rave" consensus, based on eight critic reviews: six "rave" and two "positive". In
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1719:"Thinking, Fast and Slow: the 'landmark in social thought' going head to head with Fifty Shades of Grey"
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As of 2012 the book had sold over one million copies. On the year of its publication, it was on the
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Slow, effortful, infrequent, logical, calculating, conscious. Examples of things system 2 can do:
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Daniel
Kahneman changed the way we think about thinking. But what do other thinkers think of him?
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March/April 2012 issue, a magazine that aggregates critic reviews of books, the book received a
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450:", which "may well be the most significant of the cognitive biases." This bias generates the
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In the book's first section, Kahneman describes two different ways the brain forms thoughts:
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473:(WYSIATI). This theory states that when the mind makes decisions, it deals primarily with
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2646:""I placed too much faith in underpowered studies:" Nobel Prize winner admits mistakes"
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A natural experiment reveals the prevalence of one kind of unwarranted optimism. The
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cited in the book has been called into question in the midst of the psychological
2002:
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1989:
Krueger, Joachim I. (2012). Kahneman, Daniel (ed.). "Reviewing, Fast and Slow".
1553:
Psychologists at the Gate: A Review of Daniel
Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow
1534:
Psychologists at the Gate: A Review of Daniel
Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow
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2080:
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1954:
Durr, Tony (February 1, 2014). "Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman".
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Kahneman first began the study of well-being in the 1990s. At the time most
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2199:
Etzioni, Amitai (2012). Kahneman, Daniel (ed.). "The End of Rationality?".
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2594:"Reconstruction of a Train Wreck: How Priming Research Went off the Rails"
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determine the appropriateness of a particular behavior in a social setting
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Sloman, Steven (2012). "The Battle Between Intuition and Deliberation".
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for best creative work that helps the public understanding of topics in
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187:
179:
2560:"Daniel Kahneman, Who Plumbed the Psychology of Economics, Dies at 90"
2388:
Richardson, Megan Lloyd (2012). "Review of Thinking, Fast and Slow ".
1588:
1571:
1283:. Vol. 185. Cambridge : Cambridge Univ. Press. pp. 1124–31.
1274:"11 – Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability"
781:
The book was also widely reviewed in academic journals, including the
395:
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1967:
1573:
The Point of View of the Universe: Sidgwick and Contemporary Ethics
178:. The book's main thesis is a differentiation between two modes of
195:
2512:
This Book Is Not About Baseball. But Baseball Teams Swear by It.
2361:
Harrison, Kelly A. (2012). "Review of Thinking, Fast and Slow".
2145:
Stein, Alex (2013). "Are People Probabilistically Challenged?".
2431:
Vassallo, Philip (2012). "Review of Thinking, Fast and Slow".
2110:
Gardner, Lisa A. (2012). "Review of Thinking, Fast and Slow".
454:: the illusion that we have substantial control of our lives.
274:
determine that an object is at a greater distance than another
155:
2672:"How a Pioneer in the Science of Mistakes Ended Up Mistaken"
2067:
Brock, John R. (2012). "Review of Thinking, Fast and Slow".
2698:"A Meta-Scientific Perspective on "Thinking: Fast and Slow"
1605:"2011 Los Angeles Times Book Prize Winners & Finalists"
1158:"A Meta-Scientific Perspective on "Thinking: Fast and Slow"
910:
has equated the book's importance to that of Adam Smith’s “
2024:
Baum, Howell (2013). "Review of Thinking, fast and slow".
477:, phenomena it has observed already. It rarely considers
1393:"Book Review: Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman"
1105:"The New York Times Best Seller List – December 25, 2011"
339:
determine the price/quality ratio of two washing machines
1281:
Judgment under uncertainty : heuristics and biases
312:
direct your attention towards the clowns at the circus
2741:
1779:"Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman – review"
1465:"Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk"
342:
determine the validity of a complex logical reasoning
315:
direct your attention towards someone at a loud party
295:
think of a good chess move (if you're a chess master)
656:
National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award in 2012
1682:"The Economist - Books of the Year 2011 (50 books)"
1202:"Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases"
875:. The book was also reviewed in a monthly magazine
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117:
109:
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89:
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59:
49:
1829:
1570:Lazari-Radek, Katarzyna de; Singer, Peter (2014).
1504:. Archived from the original on November 17, 2014.
248:, engineering and medicine. The integrity of some
2535:Against Empathy: The Case for Rational Compassion
2242:Sherman, Steven J. (2011). "Blink with Muscles".
1257:: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (
700:. The book was reviewed in media including the
1391:Reprints, Roger Lowenstein (October 28, 2011).
1247:. Archived from the original on March 18, 2012.
606:
434:to the effect that the other answer implied an
174:is a 2011 popular science book by psychologist
1062:
1060:
886:The book has achieved a large following among
2458:Upson, Sandra (2012). "Cognitive Illusions".
1831:"Thinking, Fast and Slow, By Daniel Kahneman"
8:
2525:
2523:
2521:
2519:
2334:Akst, Daniel (2011). "Rushing to Judgment".
1923:"Thinking, Fast and Slow By Daniel Kahneman"
1753:"Thinking Fast and Slow and Poorly and Well"
1661:"The Globe 100: The very best books of 2011"
751:
283:display disgust when seeing a gruesome image
32:
1587:Kahneman, Daniel (2011). "35. Two Selves".
1527:
1525:
469:, Kahneman introduces the concept he terms
926:Part of the book has been swept up in the
667:Globe and Mail Best Books of the Year 2011
485:, unknown phenomena of unknown relevance.
362:Heuristics in judgment and decision-making
309:prepare yourself for the start of a sprint
38:
31:
2310:
1483:
330:count the number of A's in a certain text
324:sustain a faster-than-normal walking rate
2734:– Various interviews about Kahneman and
2558:Jr, Robert D. Hershey (March 27, 2024).
1593:. New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux.
1200:Tversky, Amos; Kahneman, Daniel (1974).
1099:
1097:
687:s Best Nonfiction Books of the Year 2011
2748:
2696:Schimmack, Ulrich (December 30, 2020).
2620:"A Revised Introduction to the R-Index"
1751:Levine, David K. (September 22, 2012).
1576:. Oxford University Press. p. 276.
1156:Schimmack, Ulrich (December 30, 2020).
994:
277:localize the source of a specific sound
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1038:
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1034:
1032:
242:National Academies Communication Award
2485:Bazerman, Max H. (October 21, 2011).
2390:The University of Toronto Law Journal
1777:Strawson, Galen (December 13, 2011).
1130:
1128:
1004:"Invisible Manipulators of Your Mind"
881:Association for Psychological Science
861:The University of Toronto Law Journal
318:look for the woman with the grey hair
7:
2728:, excerpt at Penguin Books Australia
2670:Engber, Daniel (December 21, 2016).
2644:McCook, Alison (February 20, 2017).
1861:Dyson, Freeman (December 22, 2011).
2433:ETC: A Review of General Semantics
1991:The American Journal of Psychology
1423:. London: Penguin Books. pp.
796:The American Journal of Psychology
580:After the book's publication, the
333:give someone your telephone number
25:
2112:The Journal of Risk and Insurance
1659:Stein, Janice Gross; et al.
814:The Journal of Risk and Insurance
753:
489:will be similar to a past event.
438:, that Linda was not a feminist.
280:complete the phrase "war and ..."
2775:
2763:
2751:
2124:10.1111/j.1539-6975.2012.01494.x
1842:from the original on May 7, 2022
1717:Cooper, Glenda (July 14, 2012).
772:
767:
762:
757:
752:
446:Kahneman writes of a "pervasive
2843:Farrar, Straus and Giroux books
1045:Holt, Jim (November 27, 2011).
1002:Shaw, Tamsin (April 20, 2017).
664:, one of the best books of 2011
336:park into a tight parking space
240:and was the 2012 winner of the
2738:in an article in The Guardian.
1863:"How to Dispel Your Illusions"
784:Journal of Economic Literature
698:New York Times Bestseller List
661:The New York Times Book Review
583:Journal of Economic Literature
1:
1956:American Journal of Education
1700:"The Best Nonfiction of 2011"
1297:10.1126/science.185.4157.1124
1279:. In Kahneman, Daniel (ed.).
1229:10.1126/science.185.4157.1124
1183:"Web Page Under Construction"
866:A Review of General Semantics
790:American Journal of Education
190:; "System 2" is slower, more
2726:How To Think Fast & Slow
2011:10.5406/amerjpsyc.125.3.0382
2003:10.5406/amerjpsyc.125.3.0382
1867:The New York Review of Books
1370:10.1016/0010-0285(73)90033-9
916:The Interpretation of Dreams
739:The New York Review of Books
651:Los Angeles Times Book Prize
471:What You See Is All There Is
292:drive a car on an empty road
27:2011 book by Daniel Kahneman
499:Framing effect (psychology)
298:understand simple sentences
2894:
2618:R, Dr (January 31, 2016).
2592:R, Dr (February 2, 2017).
2081:10.1177/056943451205700211
632:
554:
526:
511:
496:
442:Optimism and loss aversion
406:
389:Anchoring (cognitive bias)
386:
359:
2293:jasper, james m. (2012).
2213:10.1177/0094306112457657b
1896:"Thinking, Fast and Slow"
1804:"Thinking, Fast and Slow"
1514:: CS1 maint: unfit URL (
1417:Kahneman, Daniel (2011).
958:Cognitive reflection test
94:Farrar, Straus and Giroux
37:
2803:2011 in economic history
2460:Scientific American Mind
2312:10.1177/1536504212446467
2038:10.1177/1473095213486667
1187:www.upfrontanalytics.com
1067:Daniel Kahneman (2011).
1008:New York Review of Books
973:List of cognitive biases
872:Scientific American Mind
677:s 2011 Books of the Year
321:try to recognize a sound
289:read text on a billboard
33:Thinking, Fast and Slow
2736:Thinking, Fast and Slow
2489:Thinking, Fast and Slow
2363:Technical Communication
2264:10.1126/science.1214243
1627:"10 Best Books of 2011"
1590:Thinking, Fast and Slow
1420:Thinking, fast and slow
1375:(subscription required)
1070:Thinking, Fast and Slow
914:” and Sigmund Freud’s “
856:Technical Communication
820:The Michigan Law Review
683:The Wall Street Journal
171:Thinking, Fast and Slow
2858:Psychology of learning
2818:Books about creativity
2798:2011 non-fiction books
2201:Contemporary Sociology
2069:The American Economist
1272:Tversky, Amos (1982).
832:Contemporary Sociology
808:The American Economist
621:relied on polls about
613:Experienced well-being
610:
409:Availability heuristic
182:: "System 1" is fast,
18:Thinking Fast and Slow
2813:Books about cognition
2402:10.1353/tlj.2012.0013
2295:"thinking in context"
1838:. November 18, 2011.
1633:. November 30, 2011.
1559:. 2012. pp. 7–9.
912:The Wealth of Nations
635:Affective forecasting
604:ultimate conclusion.
536:Nassim Nicholas Taleb
529:Overconfidence effect
356:Heuristics and biases
228:Israel Defense Forces
2336:The Wilson Quarterly
1935:on September 5, 2015
1706:. December 17, 2011.
1358:Cognitive Psychology
1047:"Two Brains Running"
953:Behavioral economics
894:The last chapter of
850:The Wilson Quarterly
2878:Thought experiments
2702:Replicability-Index
2624:Replicability-Index
2598:Replicability-Index
2491:by Daniel Kahneman"
2256:2011Sci...334.1062S
2250:(6059): 1062–1064.
2147:Michigan Law Review
1704:Wall Street Journal
1289:1974Sci...185.1124T
1221:1974Sci...185.1124T
1162:Replicability-Index
968:Dual process theory
933:replicability index
879:, published by the
721:The Financial Times
629:Thinking about life
452:illusion of control
418:Conjunction fallacy
34:
2564:The New York Times
2174:American Scientist
1928:Bookmarks Magazine
1810:. November 5, 2011
1631:The New York Times
1615:on April 16, 2016.
1051:The New York Times
978:Outline of thought
928:replication crisis
922:Replication crisis
826:American Scientist
715:The New York Times
653:(Current Interest)
619:happiness research
254:replication crisis
246:behavioral science
2544:978-0-06-233935-5
1686:www.goodreads.com
1609:Los Angeles Times
1215:(4157): 1124–31.
1080:978-1-4299-6935-2
644:Awards and honors
623:life satisfaction
514:Sunk cost fallacy
167:
166:
110:Publication place
44:Hardcover edition
16:(Redirected from
2885:
2828:Cognitive biases
2823:Choice modelling
2808:Books about bias
2780:
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2768:
2767:
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2747:
2713:
2712:
2710:
2708:
2693:
2687:
2686:
2684:
2682:
2667:
2661:
2660:
2658:
2656:
2650:Retraction Watch
2641:
2635:
2634:
2632:
2630:
2615:
2609:
2608:
2606:
2604:
2589:
2583:
2582:
2580:
2578:
2555:
2549:
2548:
2527:
2514:
2509:
2503:
2502:
2482:
2476:
2475:
2455:
2449:
2448:
2428:
2422:
2421:
2385:
2379:
2378:
2358:
2352:
2351:
2331:
2325:
2324:
2314:
2290:
2284:
2283:
2239:
2233:
2232:
2196:
2190:
2189:
2169:
2163:
2162:
2142:
2136:
2135:
2118:(4): 1143–1145.
2107:
2101:
2100:
2064:
2058:
2057:
2021:
2015:
2014:
1986:
1980:
1979:
1951:
1945:
1944:
1942:
1940:
1931:. Archived from
1919:
1913:
1912:
1910:
1908:
1892:
1886:
1885:
1883:
1881:
1858:
1852:
1851:
1849:
1847:
1833:
1826:
1820:
1819:
1817:
1815:
1800:
1794:
1793:
1791:
1789:
1774:
1768:
1767:
1765:
1763:
1748:
1742:
1741:
1739:
1737:
1714:
1708:
1707:
1696:
1690:
1689:
1678:
1672:
1671:
1669:
1667:
1656:
1650:
1649:
1647:
1645:
1623:
1617:
1616:
1611:. Archived from
1601:
1595:
1594:
1584:
1578:
1577:
1567:
1561:
1560:
1558:
1548:
1542:
1541:
1539:
1529:
1520:
1519:
1513:
1505:
1487:
1469:
1457:Kahneman, Daniel
1453:
1447:
1446:
1414:
1408:
1407:
1405:
1403:
1388:
1377:
1376:
1373:
1353:
1347:
1346:
1340:
1336:
1334:
1326:
1278:
1269:
1263:
1262:
1256:
1248:
1206:
1197:
1191:
1190:
1179:
1173:
1172:
1170:
1168:
1153:
1147:
1146:
1144:
1142:
1132:
1123:
1122:
1120:
1118:
1109:
1101:
1092:
1091:
1089:
1087:
1064:
1055:
1054:
1042:
1027:
1026:
1024:
1022:
999:
777:
776:
775:
771:
770:
766:
765:
761:
760:
756:
755:
571:cognitive biases
563:Daniel Bernoulli
483:Unknown Unknowns
459:planning fallacy
216:cognitive biases
157:
101:Publication date
64:English language
42:
35:
21:
2893:
2892:
2888:
2887:
2886:
2884:
2883:
2882:
2853:Prospect theory
2838:Decision-making
2788:
2787:
2786:
2774:
2764:
2762:
2752:
2750:
2742:
2722:
2717:
2716:
2706:
2704:
2695:
2694:
2690:
2680:
2678:
2669:
2668:
2664:
2654:
2652:
2643:
2642:
2638:
2628:
2626:
2617:
2616:
2612:
2602:
2600:
2591:
2590:
2586:
2576:
2574:
2557:
2556:
2552:
2545:
2529:
2528:
2517:
2510:
2506:
2484:
2483:
2479:
2457:
2456:
2452:
2430:
2429:
2425:
2387:
2386:
2382:
2360:
2359:
2355:
2333:
2332:
2328:
2292:
2291:
2287:
2241:
2240:
2236:
2198:
2197:
2193:
2171:
2170:
2166:
2144:
2143:
2139:
2109:
2108:
2104:
2066:
2065:
2061:
2026:Planning Theory
2023:
2022:
2018:
1988:
1987:
1983:
1953:
1952:
1948:
1938:
1936:
1921:
1920:
1916:
1906:
1904:
1894:
1893:
1889:
1879:
1877:
1860:
1859:
1855:
1845:
1843:
1836:The Independent
1828:
1827:
1823:
1813:
1811:
1808:Financial Times
1802:
1801:
1797:
1787:
1785:
1776:
1775:
1771:
1761:
1759:
1757:Huffington Post
1750:
1749:
1745:
1735:
1733:
1723:Daily Telegraph
1716:
1715:
1711:
1698:
1697:
1693:
1680:
1679:
1675:
1665:
1663:
1658:
1657:
1653:
1643:
1641:
1625:
1624:
1620:
1603:
1602:
1598:
1586:
1585:
1581:
1569:
1568:
1564:
1556:
1550:
1549:
1545:
1537:
1531:
1530:
1523:
1506:
1494:10.2307/1914185
1485:10.1.1.407.1910
1467:
1455:
1454:
1450:
1435:
1416:
1415:
1411:
1401:
1399:
1390:
1389:
1380:
1374:
1355:
1354:
1350:
1337:
1327:
1307:
1276:
1271:
1270:
1266:
1249:
1204:
1199:
1198:
1194:
1181:
1180:
1176:
1166:
1164:
1155:
1154:
1150:
1140:
1138:
1134:
1133:
1126:
1116:
1114:
1107:
1103:
1102:
1095:
1085:
1083:
1081:
1066:
1065:
1058:
1044:
1043:
1030:
1020:
1018:
1001:
1000:
996:
991:
963:Decision theory
949:
943:justification.
924:
900:Against Empathy
888:baseball scouts
802:Planning Theory
773:
768:
763:
758:
727:The Independent
703:Huffington Post
694:
646:
637:
631:
615:
601:
599:Life as a story
592:
565:'s traditional
559:
557:Prospect theory
553:
551:Prospect theory
544:
531:
525:
516:
510:
501:
495:
448:optimistic bias
444:
420:
411:
405:
391:
385:
368:
360:Main articles:
358:
262:
250:priming studies
233:The book was a
226:, and with the
220:prospect theory
207:framing choices
176:Daniel Kahneman
118:Media type
102:
54:Daniel Kahneman
45:
28:
23:
22:
15:
12:
11:
5:
2891:
2889:
2881:
2880:
2875:
2870:
2865:
2860:
2855:
2850:
2845:
2840:
2835:
2830:
2825:
2820:
2815:
2810:
2805:
2800:
2790:
2789:
2785:
2784:
2772:
2760:
2740:
2739:
2729:
2721:
2720:External links
2718:
2715:
2714:
2688:
2676:Slate Magazine
2662:
2636:
2610:
2584:
2550:
2543:
2515:
2504:
2477:
2450:
2423:
2396:(3): 453–457.
2380:
2369:(4): 342–343.
2353:
2326:
2285:
2234:
2207:(5): 594–597.
2191:
2164:
2153:(6): 855–875.
2137:
2102:
2075:(2): 259–261.
2059:
2032:(4): 442–446.
2016:
1997:(3): 382–385.
1981:
1968:10.1086/674372
1962:(2): 287–291.
1946:
1914:
1887:
1853:
1821:
1795:
1769:
1743:
1709:
1691:
1673:
1651:
1618:
1596:
1579:
1562:
1543:
1521:
1478:(2): 263–291.
1463:(March 1979).
1448:
1433:
1409:
1378:
1364:(2): 207–232.
1348:
1339:|journal=
1305:
1264:
1192:
1174:
1148:
1124:
1093:
1079:
1056:
1028:
993:
992:
990:
987:
986:
985:
980:
975:
970:
965:
960:
955:
948:
945:
923:
920:
908:Nicholas Taleb
693:
690:
689:
688:
678:
668:
665:
657:
654:
645:
642:
633:Main article:
630:
627:
614:
611:
600:
597:
591:
588:
567:utility theory
555:Main article:
552:
549:
543:
540:
527:Main article:
524:
523:Overconfidence
521:
512:Main article:
509:
506:
497:Main article:
494:
491:
479:Known Unknowns
467:overconfidence
443:
440:
419:
416:
407:Main article:
404:
401:
387:Main article:
384:
381:
366:Cognitive bias
357:
354:
349:
348:
347:
346:
343:
340:
337:
334:
331:
328:
325:
322:
319:
316:
313:
310:
301:
300:
299:
296:
293:
290:
287:
284:
281:
278:
275:
261:
258:
236:New York Times
218:, his work on
165:
164:
159:
151:
150:
148:978-0374275631
145:
139:
138:
135:
131:
130:
119:
115:
114:
111:
107:
106:
103:
100:
97:
96:
91:
87:
86:
81:
77:
76:
71:
67:
66:
61:
57:
56:
51:
47:
46:
43:
26:
24:
14:
13:
10:
9:
6:
4:
3:
2:
2890:
2879:
2876:
2874:
2871:
2869:
2866:
2864:
2863:Risk analysis
2861:
2859:
2856:
2854:
2851:
2849:
2846:
2844:
2841:
2839:
2836:
2834:
2831:
2829:
2826:
2824:
2821:
2819:
2816:
2814:
2811:
2809:
2806:
2804:
2801:
2799:
2796:
2795:
2793:
2783:
2778:
2773:
2771:
2761:
2759:
2749:
2745:
2737:
2733:
2730:
2727:
2724:
2723:
2719:
2703:
2699:
2692:
2689:
2677:
2673:
2666:
2663:
2651:
2647:
2640:
2637:
2625:
2621:
2614:
2611:
2599:
2595:
2588:
2585:
2573:
2569:
2565:
2561:
2554:
2551:
2546:
2540:
2536:
2532:
2526:
2524:
2522:
2520:
2516:
2513:
2508:
2505:
2500:
2496:
2492:
2490:
2481:
2478:
2473:
2469:
2465:
2461:
2454:
2451:
2446:
2442:
2438:
2434:
2427:
2424:
2419:
2415:
2411:
2407:
2403:
2399:
2395:
2391:
2384:
2381:
2376:
2372:
2368:
2364:
2357:
2354:
2349:
2345:
2341:
2337:
2330:
2327:
2322:
2318:
2313:
2308:
2304:
2300:
2296:
2289:
2286:
2281:
2277:
2273:
2269:
2265:
2261:
2257:
2253:
2249:
2245:
2238:
2235:
2230:
2226:
2222:
2218:
2214:
2210:
2206:
2202:
2195:
2192:
2187:
2183:
2179:
2175:
2168:
2165:
2160:
2156:
2152:
2148:
2141:
2138:
2133:
2129:
2125:
2121:
2117:
2113:
2106:
2103:
2098:
2094:
2090:
2086:
2082:
2078:
2074:
2070:
2063:
2060:
2055:
2051:
2047:
2043:
2039:
2035:
2031:
2027:
2020:
2017:
2012:
2008:
2004:
2000:
1996:
1992:
1985:
1982:
1977:
1973:
1969:
1965:
1961:
1957:
1950:
1947:
1934:
1930:
1929:
1924:
1918:
1915:
1903:
1902:
1897:
1891:
1888:
1876:
1872:
1868:
1864:
1857:
1854:
1841:
1837:
1832:
1825:
1822:
1809:
1805:
1799:
1796:
1784:
1780:
1773:
1770:
1758:
1754:
1747:
1744:
1732:
1728:
1724:
1720:
1713:
1710:
1705:
1701:
1695:
1692:
1687:
1683:
1677:
1674:
1662:
1655:
1652:
1640:
1636:
1632:
1628:
1622:
1619:
1614:
1610:
1606:
1600:
1597:
1592:
1591:
1583:
1580:
1575:
1574:
1566:
1563:
1555:
1554:
1547:
1544:
1536:
1535:
1528:
1526:
1522:
1517:
1511:
1503:
1499:
1495:
1491:
1486:
1481:
1477:
1473:
1466:
1462:
1461:Tversky, Amos
1458:
1452:
1449:
1444:
1440:
1436:
1434:9780141033570
1430:
1426:
1422:
1421:
1413:
1410:
1398:
1397:Bloomberg.com
1394:
1387:
1385:
1383:
1379:
1371:
1367:
1363:
1359:
1352:
1349:
1344:
1332:
1324:
1320:
1316:
1312:
1308:
1306:9780521240642
1302:
1298:
1294:
1290:
1286:
1282:
1275:
1268:
1265:
1260:
1254:
1246:
1242:
1238:
1234:
1230:
1226:
1222:
1218:
1214:
1210:
1203:
1196:
1193:
1188:
1184:
1178:
1175:
1163:
1159:
1152:
1149:
1137:
1131:
1129:
1125:
1113:
1112:www.hawes.com
1106:
1100:
1098:
1094:
1082:
1076:
1073:. Macmillan.
1072:
1071:
1063:
1061:
1057:
1053:. p. 16.
1052:
1048:
1041:
1039:
1037:
1035:
1033:
1029:
1017:
1013:
1009:
1005:
998:
995:
988:
984:
983:Peak–end rule
981:
979:
976:
974:
971:
969:
966:
964:
961:
959:
956:
954:
951:
950:
946:
944:
940:
938:
934:
929:
921:
919:
917:
913:
909:
904:
901:
897:
892:
889:
884:
882:
878:
874:
873:
868:
867:
862:
858:
857:
852:
851:
846:
845:
840:
839:
834:
833:
828:
827:
822:
821:
816:
815:
810:
809:
804:
803:
798:
797:
792:
791:
786:
785:
779:
749:
745:
741:
740:
735:
734:
729:
728:
723:
722:
717:
716:
711:
710:
705:
704:
699:
691:
686:
684:
679:
676:
674:
673:The Economist
669:
666:
663:
662:
658:
655:
652:
648:
647:
643:
641:
636:
628:
626:
624:
620:
612:
609:
605:
598:
596:
589:
587:
585:
584:
578:
574:
572:
568:
564:
558:
550:
548:
541:
539:
537:
530:
522:
520:
515:
507:
505:
500:
492:
490:
486:
484:
480:
476:
472:
468:
463:
460:
455:
453:
449:
441:
439:
437:
433:
429:
425:
424:Linda problem
417:
415:
410:
402:
400:
397:
390:
382:
380:
376:
374:
367:
363:
355:
353:
345:solve 17 × 24
344:
341:
338:
335:
332:
329:
326:
323:
320:
317:
314:
311:
308:
307:
305:
302:
297:
294:
291:
288:
285:
282:
279:
276:
273:
272:
270:
267:
266:
265:
259:
257:
255:
251:
247:
243:
239:
237:
231:
229:
225:
221:
217:
213:
208:
204:
203:loss aversion
199:
197:
193:
189:
185:
181:
177:
173:
172:
163:
160:
158:
152:
149:
146:
144:
140:
136:
132:
128:
124:
120:
116:
113:United States
112:
108:
104:
98:
95:
92:
88:
85:
82:
78:
75:
72:
68:
65:
62:
58:
55:
52:
48:
41:
36:
30:
19:
2735:
2707:February 21,
2705:. Retrieved
2701:
2691:
2679:. Retrieved
2675:
2665:
2653:. Retrieved
2649:
2639:
2627:. Retrieved
2623:
2613:
2601:. Retrieved
2597:
2587:
2575:. Retrieved
2563:
2553:
2534:
2507:
2498:
2495:APS Observer
2494:
2488:
2480:
2466:(6): 68–69.
2463:
2459:
2453:
2436:
2432:
2426:
2393:
2389:
2383:
2366:
2362:
2356:
2342:(4): 97–98.
2339:
2335:
2329:
2305:(2): 70–71.
2302:
2298:
2288:
2247:
2243:
2237:
2204:
2200:
2194:
2180:(1): 73–75.
2177:
2173:
2167:
2150:
2146:
2140:
2115:
2111:
2105:
2072:
2068:
2062:
2029:
2025:
2019:
1994:
1990:
1984:
1959:
1955:
1949:
1937:. Retrieved
1933:the original
1926:
1917:
1905:. Retrieved
1899:
1890:
1880:February 17,
1878:. Retrieved
1866:
1856:
1846:February 17,
1844:. Retrieved
1835:
1824:
1814:February 17,
1812:. Retrieved
1807:
1798:
1788:February 17,
1786:. Retrieved
1783:the Guardian
1782:
1772:
1762:February 17,
1760:. Retrieved
1756:
1746:
1736:February 17,
1734:. Retrieved
1722:
1712:
1703:
1694:
1685:
1676:
1664:. Retrieved
1654:
1642:. Retrieved
1630:
1621:
1613:the original
1608:
1599:
1589:
1582:
1572:
1565:
1552:
1546:
1533:
1510:cite journal
1475:
1472:Econometrica
1471:
1451:
1419:
1412:
1400:. Retrieved
1396:
1361:
1357:
1351:
1280:
1267:
1253:cite journal
1212:
1208:
1195:
1186:
1177:
1167:February 11,
1165:. Retrieved
1161:
1151:
1139:. Retrieved
1115:. Retrieved
1111:
1084:. Retrieved
1069:
1050:
1019:. Retrieved
1007:
997:
941:
937:underpowered
925:
905:
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